A Surveillance System for Assessing and Monitoring Desertificationwww.desurvey.net

European Commission 6th Framework Programme:

Global Change & Ecosystems.Integrated Project Contract No. 003950

DeSurvey: A Surveillance System for Assessing, Monitoring and Forecasting of Desertification

• Interdisciplinary research 2005-2010 • 39 partners (>90 scientists), • EU contribution: 7.8 M€• Belgium, France, Germany, Greece, Holland, Italy,

Portugal, Spain, Sweden, UK, Algeria, Morocco, Senegal,Tunisia, Chile, China,

DeSurvey: A Surveillance System for Assessing, Monitoring and Forecasting of Desertification

• Interdisciplinary research 2005-2010 • 39 partners (>90 scientists), • EU contribution: 7.8 M€• Belgium, France, Germany, Greece, Holland, Italy,

Portugal, Spain, Sweden, UK, Algeria, Morocco, Senegal,Tunisia, Chile, China,

DeSurvey is considering the interaction and importance of socio-economy, climate and landssystem vulnerability to land degradation

DeSurvey is considering the interaction and importance of socio-economy, climate and landssystem vulnerability to land degradation

DeSurvey objectivesDeSurvey objectives

• Understanding of desertification in a systemic and dynamic manner;

• Monitoring and assessment of desertification and land degradation status over large areas using objective and reproducible methods, including diagnosis of driving forces;

• Discriminating between current and inherited desertification, and the identifying of desertification hot spots;

• Forecasting of desertification under selected climatic and socio-economic scenarios;

• Bridging the gap between scientific knowledge generated by the project on the processes underlying desertification and the practice of formulating policy and management action to detect, prevent and resolve desertification risks.

• Understanding of desertification in a systemic and dynamic manner;

• Monitoring and assessment of desertification and land degradation status over large areas using objective and reproducible methods, including diagnosis of driving forces;

• Discriminating between current and inherited desertification, and the identifying of desertification hot spots;

• Forecasting of desertification under selected climatic and socio-economic scenarios;

• Bridging the gap between scientific knowledge generated by the project on the processes underlying desertification and the practice of formulating policy and management action to detect, prevent and resolve desertification risks.

DeSurvey modelling approachDeSurvey modelling approach

• Spatially explicit cellular modelling of climate and socio-economic forcing impacts on land condition and land claims in land use systems. A feedback loop between land condition and land use spatial allocation will enable dynamic time projections.

• Predator-prey based systems modelling of Land Use Systems Vulnerability.

• Spatially explicit cellular modelling of climate and socio-economic forcing impacts on land condition and land claims in land use systems. A feedback loop between land condition and land use spatial allocation will enable dynamic time projections.

• Predator-prey based systems modelling of Land Use Systems Vulnerability.

Operating Operating modulesmodules

• Climate forcing.

• Socio-economic forcing.

• Land-use systems vulnerability.

• Ground-based land condition assessment and forecasting.

• Integrated remote sensing and geomatics approaches for the assessment and monitoring of land surface conditions.

• Climate forcing.

• Socio-economic forcing.

• Land-use systems vulnerability.

• Ground-based land condition assessment and forecasting.

• Integrated remote sensing and geomatics approaches for the assessment and monitoring of land surface conditions.

• Water resources condition assessment.

• Data and information systems.

• Integration and validation.

• Innovation related activities.

• Project monitoring, evaluation, contingency planning and management

• Training, demonstrations

• Water resources condition assessment.

• Data and information systems.

• Integration and validation.

• Innovation related activities.

• Project monitoring, evaluation, contingency planning and management

• Training, demonstrations

DeSurvey spatial resolutionsDeSurvey spatial resolutions

The DeSurvey System will be designed to run at three spatial resolution levels:

• (i) Coarse resolutions (~ 8 km or province-NUT equivalents) for preliminary surveys at the global-multi national regional scale;

• (ii) Standard resolutions (~ 1 km) for national-sub national regional applications;

• (iii) Fine resolutions (~ 30 m) for local applications.

The DeSurvey System will be designed to run at three spatial resolution levels:

• (i) Coarse resolutions (~ 8 km or province-NUT equivalents) for preliminary surveys at the global-multi national regional scale;

• (ii) Standard resolutions (~ 1 km) for national-sub national regional applications;

• (iii) Fine resolutions (~ 30 m) for local applications.

EU DeSurvey research target areasEU DeSurvey research target areas

Target areas of moderate size (~ 1000 –5000 km2) are selected and used for three purposes:

• (i) development and parameterisation of models that evaluate land use and land degradation changes as well as vulnerability of land use systems to desertification;

• (ii) validation of the DESURVEY surveillance and assessment procedures, and;

• (iii) demonstration of the DESURVEY System’s performance.

Target areas of moderate size (~ 1000 –5000 km2) are selected and used for three purposes:

• (i) development and parameterisation of models that evaluate land use and land degradation changes as well as vulnerability of land use systems to desertification;

• (ii) validation of the DESURVEY surveillance and assessment procedures, and;

• (iii) demonstration of the DESURVEY System’s performance.

Desertification Indicator(s) ?Desertification Indicator(s) ?

Dear members of DeSurvey,

Desertification is defined by the UN as land degradation in arid, semi arid and sub-humid lands. Degradation implies the reduction of the resource potential of the landscape through different processes.

Assume desertification can be described numerically through system dynamics modelling in terms of a key "resource stock" with inflows (growth/production/ reproduction) and outflows (consumption of resources).

A higher consumption (outflow) than production (inflow) may lead to some kind of system crash or at least to a decreasing resource reproduction and a reduced potential, possibly involving accelerated land degradation.

This may take place through the development of one or several feed back loops reinforcing the degradation/desertification to a level where it will be difficult to stop.

Assume YOU have to do the modelling and that YOU have to pick THE key variable (stock) that would act as a surrogate for desertification!

Which variable would you choose?

Dear members of DeSurvey,

Desertification is defined by the UN as land degradation in arid, semi arid and sub-humid lands. Degradation implies the reduction of the resource potential of the landscape through different processes.

Assume desertification can be described numerically through system dynamics modelling in terms of a key "resource stock" with inflows (growth/production/ reproduction) and outflows (consumption of resources).

A higher consumption (outflow) than production (inflow) may lead to some kind of system crash or at least to a decreasing resource reproduction and a reduced potential, possibly involving accelerated land degradation.

This may take place through the development of one or several feed back loops reinforcing the degradation/desertification to a level where it will be difficult to stop.

Assume YOU have to do the modelling and that YOU have to pick THE key variable (stock) that would act as a surrogate for desertification!

Which variable would you choose?

A) Soil water storage B) Ground water storageC) Soil (erosion modelling, e.g. soil depth &/or

nutrient status )D) Green & woody biomass (natural & crops

productivity)E) Vegetation fractional cover (canopy and field

cover)F) Human populationG) Household incomeH) Rural/urban standard of livingI) Livestock density

J) I have no idea what you are talking aboutK) Suggested alternatives...(desertification is a

syndrome…

A) Soil water storage B) Ground water storageC) Soil (erosion modelling, e.g. soil depth &/or

nutrient status )D) Green & woody biomass (natural & crops

productivity)E) Vegetation fractional cover (canopy and field

cover)F) Human populationG) Household incomeH) Rural/urban standard of livingI) Livestock density

J) I have no idea what you are talking aboutK) Suggested alternatives...(desertification is a

syndrome…

N=65*2

System Dynamic Conceptual Model of Desertification (LU)

Predator-Prey based approach

System Dynamic Conceptual Model of Desertification (LU)

Predator-Prey based approach

Land use change is modelled;EU-Region consists of a grid with+/- 4 million 1 km2 cells;Overall growth and land claim of each land use function is determined at NUTS 3 levelNeighbourhood 8 cell-radius, 196 cells;Identical and coupled CA models, 1 per NUTS 3 region;Max. 32 land-use classes, some dynamic, some static;CA develops in a space defined by Suitability, Zoning and Infrastructure.

research institute for knowledge systems

RIKS

RIKS’ Cellular Automata Land Use Change Model to allocate growth to the individual 1 km plot

Indikatoren

Zeitliche Veränderungen

Spezielle Forschungs-

aspekte

1989 2030

Social & economic macro- and micro- processes drive land condition modelsSocial & economic macro- and micro- processes drive land condition models

PESERA/RDI (1 km) & PATTERN-LEIS (30-100 m) Land Condition ModellingPESERA/RDI (1 km) & PATTERN-LEIS (30-100 m) Land Condition Modelling

Current climate: January

Hadley Centre 2080 scenario: January

Expected changes in erosion due to global climate changes:More erosion, especially in Winter if land use is unchanged

MEDOKADS, NASA/GIMMS, TERRA/MODIS (250, 500,1k), Pathfinder, Landsat, NDVI time series for biomass anomaly trend studies with climate analysis

MEDOKADS, NASA/GIMMS, TERRA/MODIS (250, 500,1k), Pathfinder, Landsat, NDVI time series for biomass anomaly trend studies with climate analysis

Lund university-07

NDVI (AVHRR) and rainfall (GPCP, 2.50, ~275 km) anomalies for 5 random years during the 1982 to 2002 period.

NDVI (AVHRR) and rainfall (GPCP, 2.50, ~275 km) anomalies for 5 random years during the 1982 to 2002 period.

Linear trends in vegetation productivity for the period 1982 to 2002 based on annual integrated NDVI values. The trend is expressed as percentages i.e. the relative difference between the start and the end value of the linear trend.

Linear trends in vegetation productivity for the period 1982 to 2002 based on annual integrated NDVI values. The trend is expressed as percentages i.e. the relative difference between the start and the end value of the linear trend.

Map of the correlation coefficients of NDVI anomalies with Rainfall anomalies for the period 1982 to 2002.

Map of the correlation coefficients of NDVI anomalies with Rainfall anomalies for the period 1982 to 2002.

Lund university-07

1972

1989

1991

1993

1994

1997

Satellite-EstimatedVegetation Abundance

year

Veg.[%]

y = a + b*x

Spatio-temporal Indicators, High resolution data, Univ of TrierSpatio-temporal Indicators, High resolution data, Univ of Trier

uh-07

DeSurvey outputsDeSurvey outputsThe main outputs of the project will be:

• DeSurvey Desertification Surveillance system tailored to end-user information needs.

• Application examples of desertification assessment and its performance at national scales in Portugal, Spain, Italy and Greece.

• Application examples of desertification assessment and its performance at the sub-national scales in 5 European areas and in Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Senegal, China and Chile.

• Algorithms for deriving system-based indicators of discontinuities and breakpoints in the expected trajectories of threatened areas.

• Databases and information systems to run DESURVEY in the afore-mentioned areas.

• Two courses for increasing capacity of postgraduate specialists in desertification surveillance and training them in DESURVEY implementation and use.

The main outputs of the project will be:

• DeSurvey Desertification Surveillance system tailored to end-user information needs.

• Application examples of desertification assessment and its performance at national scales in Portugal, Spain, Italy and Greece.

• Application examples of desertification assessment and its performance at the sub-national scales in 5 European areas and in Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Senegal, China and Chile.

• Algorithms for deriving system-based indicators of discontinuities and breakpoints in the expected trajectories of threatened areas.

• Databases and information systems to run DESURVEY in the afore-mentioned areas.

• Two courses for increasing capacity of postgraduate specialists in desertification surveillance and training them in DESURVEY implementation and use.

DeSurvey core products; end of 2007DeSurvey core products; end of 2007

• A monitoring system based on spatially distributed one-a- time land condition assessment repeated through time (remote sensing & field surveys; socio-economy/land use and biomass)

• A forecasting system delivering time projections of spatially distributed land condition (i.e. economy driven land condition modelling; land use & erosion)

• An assessment of stability conditions of the desertification syndromes occurring in the areas of interest (i.e. ”predator-prey” based system dynamic modelling of vulnerability, stress, equilibrium conditions & desertification)

• A monitoring system based on spatially distributed one-a- time land condition assessment repeated through time (remote sensing & field surveys; socio-economy/land use and biomass)

• A forecasting system delivering time projections of spatially distributed land condition (i.e. economy driven land condition modelling; land use & erosion)

• An assessment of stability conditions of the desertification syndromes occurring in the areas of interest (i.e. ”predator-prey” based system dynamic modelling of vulnerability, stress, equilibrium conditions & desertification)

DeSurvey complementary needs: Additional partners to represent and validate all syndromes; additional focus on bio-diversity and socio-economy

Prepared plans & partnersPrepared plans & partners: Sudan, Argentina, Niger, Uzbekistan, South Africa, China: Sudan, Argentina, Niger, Uzbekistan, South Africa, China