De groot talk_iscram drr

Disaster Risk Reduction

09-04-2023 11:50 PM Cordaid Presentation 2

HISTORY OF DISASTER MANEGEMENT

Yokohoma strategy and plan for a safer world (May 1994)

“Disaster prevention, mitigation, preparedness and relief are four elements which contribute to and gain from the implementation of sustainable development policies. These elements, along with environmental protection and sustainable development, are closely interrelated.”

“Disaster prevention, mitigation and preparedness are better than disaster response in achieving the goals and objectives of the Decade. Disaster response alone is not sufficient, as it yields only temporary results at a very high cost.”


KEY ASSUMPTION

core assumption disaster risk reduction (DRR)

Disaster risk reduction is based upon the assumption that (natural) disasters will have a long-term negative impact on the development of underdeveloped countries.

HOWEVER there are critical notes

Aghion and Howitt (“Endogenous growth theory”, 1998) argue that disasters tend to have a positive long term spin-off effects on development due to technological improvements. The technological improvement can be explained from reconstruction activities.


A PILOT STUDY IN NORTHERN KENYA

objectives of the study

The objective of the study is to quantify the impact of disaster risk reduction interventions in Kenya and determine the cost-effectiveness of long term DRR compared to short term emergency relief and rehabilitation.

Moreover, the study will be a starting point of a future study on the qualitative long term impact of DRR intervention and to determine future direction.

Cost-benefit analysis requires information on long term impact of disasters!


The Black Swan• A black swan has three major characteristics:

– It is an outlier, therefore very difficult to predict– It carries an extreme impact– It has retrospective (though not prospective) predictability

• Examples: the 9/11 attacks, the Dutch hunger winter, the stock market crash of 1929, NOT the present drought in the Horn of Africa

• Yet we act as if the phenomenon does not exist!

• (Source: Nassim Taleb – The Black Swan. The impact of the highly improbable, 2007)

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Disaster in the Netherlands: Hunger winter

• Short (six months before the end of Second World War) but severe

• Affected large, healthy and stable population group• Was documented precisely• Ended as abruptly as it started

• Killed some 20,000 people (out of a population of 3.5 million)

Cordaid Presentation

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Sampling• Starting population: 5,425 baby’s born in a hospital in Amsterdam• Born from 1 November 1943 till 28 februari 1947• Excluded: early births, twins• 160 baby’s were not registered with the municipality• 99 baby’s could not be traced• Deceased before start of study in 1994: 10%• 164 people refused to particpate• Two control groups of 650 baby’s• Final sample: 2,414

• How representative is the sample?


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The negative impact of malnutrition, 50 years later

• Heart diseases• Lung diseases• Stress• Diabetes

• Causal relation between disaster and impact? • What are appropriate interventions?



CHANGING CONSENSUS ON DISASTER RISK APPROACH

1950s – 1960s: disaster = interruption of development process

emergency relief as sole disaster response

limited disaster preparedness

1970s – 1980s: development strategies included disaster risk mitigation

disaster risk mitigation mainly technical

1990s – to date: disaster risk reduction mainstreamed in development strategies technical mitigation combined with

strengthening of social structures increasing coping capacities and decreasing vulnerability


HOW TO DEFINE DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT (DRM)

relation vulnerability and coping capacity

there is no uniform definition of coping; definitions can be classified into two groups

[1] coping can be considered as an ex post disaster activity indicating that coping capacities do not effect vulnerability

[2] coping can be affiliated with both ex ante and ex post disaster action: coping aimed at decreasing vulnerability and coping related to containment of possible impacts of a hazard


“DISASTER PRESURE AND RELEASE”-MODEL

developed by Blaikie et al

explains disaster risks from a macro perspective where vulnerability is defined as:

“… characteristic of a person or group and their situation that influence their capacity to anticipate, cope with, resist and recover form the impact of a natural hazard.”

“At risk, second edition: natural hazards, people’s vulnerability, and disasters”, Wisner et al.,

2003


HOW TO DEFINE DISASTER RISK

definition UNISDR

The systematic development and application of policies, strategies and practices to minimise vulnerabilities and disaster risks and throughout a society, to avoid (prevention) or to limit (mitigation and preparedness) adverse impact of hazards, within he broad context of sustainable development.

source: “Living With Risk: A Global Review of Disaster Reduction Initiatives”, UNISDR



relation disaster risks and hazards

D = disaster

IH = total impact hazard

IHx = total hazard on demography, economy, environment, social structures

R = disaster risk



coping as ex ante and ex post disaster activity

CEAC = ex ante disaster coping capacity aimed at limitation of impactCEAV = ex ante disaster coping capacity aimed at vulnerability reduction CEP = ex post disaster coping capacity of population at stakeFGV = factors generating vulnerabilityFEV = factors enhancing vulnerabilityH = (magnitude of the) hazardIH = total impact hazardV = vulnerability of population at stake

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Drought Cycle Management (DCM) Model• DCM stresses the need for continuity between activities aimed at

development, relief and rehabilitation and distinguishes between four stages:– Normal: sufficient rain, focus on mitigation activities– Alert and alarm: First signs of drought, focus on preparation– Relief: food and water shortages result in hunger and death, focus on

emergency relief– Recovery: reconstruction, focus on restocking, capacity building,

infrastructure, natural resource management• DCM model aims to increase resilience and coping capacity of

communities and households to reduce disaster risk• THIS SHOULD PROVIDE YOU WITH A FIRST LINK TO YOUR

CHALLENGE: COME UP WITH THE UNDISCOVERED SOLUTION



The sampling frame• Four districts were selected, pairing districts with high and low levels of

external disaster management intervention (Garissa, Marsabit, Samburu, Wajir)

• Secondary data were collected for district profiles to construct a district vulnerability index

• Primary data were collected at households (extended familes): 50 for each district, based on a standard questionnaire

• How representative is our own sample?

• Four different models were specified• PROBIT techniques were used to estimate relations between variables

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Measuring vulnerability• Vulnerability is a multidimensional factor, embodying the combined effects

of unsafe conditions. We derived proxies at the district level for the four elements of the PAR model relating to:

• Physical environment (weighted drought frequency)• Local economy (human poverty index)• Social relations (population growth)• Public actions (access to health, school enrollment)



Measuring household disaster risk• The household level food consumption deficit represents an ideal

dependent variable, but is extremely difficult to measure.• Four coping mechanisms have been used as proxies:

– Liquidation of productive assets– Food consumption adjustments– Calling on community level facilities– Reliance on emergency relief

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Ex-post coping capacity of households• Independent variable approximated by number of household

characteristics:– Asset ownership– Proportion of economically active members– Dependency ratio– Educational attainment– Gender and age of household heads


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Strengthening ex-ante coping capacity applied in DCM model

• Households can prepare themselves against adverse impacts through different actions such as:

– Income diversification– Livestock diversification– Water reserve capacity– Use of common pastures



The impact of drought cycle management• Three out of four indicators of household disaster risk decrease when

households have coping capacities as stimulated and reinforced by the DCM model (ex ante):– Sustainable livestock management systems– Income diversfication– Water conservation– Community level safety net structures (e.g. Credit)

• Reserving grazing areas could not be shown as a significant coping strategy

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