David Sandalow, Roger Aines, Julio Friedmann, Colin ... · • Click to edit Master text styles —...
Transcript of David Sandalow, Roger Aines, Julio Friedmann, Colin ... · • Click to edit Master text styles —...
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DRAFT FOR COMMENT
O
David Sandalow, Roger Aines, Julio Friedmann, Colin McCormick
and Daniel Sanchez
October 2020
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We started out to write a roadmap on bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS)
• Part of the climate dialogue for decades
• Important role in many integrated assessment models
• However:— Biomass can be used to capture and store CO2
without energy production.
— Carbon removal value of biomass may exceed its energy value.
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So we propose a new term: BIOMASS CARBON REMOVAL AND STORAGE
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• Adverse impacts on food security
• Adverse impacts on rural livelihoods
• Ecosystem damages, including biodiversity loss
• CO2 removal benefit reduced or eliminated due to indirect land use change
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These are not technical issues.These are social, operational and policy issues.
In addition, using biomass for carbon capture and storage can create risks.
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So we propose three guiding principlesfor BiCRS
• First, do no harm.
• Second, social acceptability is key.
• Third, technology development should reflect social priorities.
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We define biomass carbon removal and storage (BiCRS) as…
A process that
a) uses biomass to remove CO2 from the atmosphere,
b) stores that CO2 underground or in long-lived products, and
c) does no damage to – and ideally promotes – food security, rurallivelihoods, biodiversity conservation and other important values.
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Biomass Carbon Removal and Storage (BiCRS) RoadmapTABLE OF CONTENTS
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1. INTRODUCTIONA. New Term: Biomass Carbon Removal and Storage (BiCRS)
B. BICRS 2050: An Ideal Vision
C. Guiding Principles
2. BACKGROUNDA. A Short History of BECCS/BiCRS in the Global Climate Dialogue
B. Biogenic CO2 Sequestration Facilities Today
C. Relative Value of Carbon Removal and Energy from Biomass
3. BiCRS: RATIONALE AND RISKSA. Rationale for BiCRS
B. Risks of BiCRS
4. BIOMASS FEEDSTOCKS
A. Forestry and Energy Crops Today
B. Biomass Feedstock Potential
5. TRANSPORT
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Biomass Carbon Removal and Storage (BiCRS) RoadmapTABLE OF CONTENTS
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6. CONVERSION PROCESSES
7. CARBON SEPARATION AND STORAGE
8. RESEARCH AGENDA
— A.Technology
— B.Social Science
— C. Integrated Analyses
— D.Timeline
9. POLICY
— A.Incentives for Removing Carbon from the Atmosphere
— B.Support for RD&D
— C. Standard-Setting
10. FINDINGS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
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BiCRS Roadmap – KEY MESSAGES
1. Biomass carbon removal and storage (BiCRS) could deliver 2.5-5.0 Gt/y CO2 removal and storage by mid-century.
2. Biggest issues to be addressed are institutional and political, not technical.
3. Wastes (agricultural, forestry and municipal) are attractive initial biomass sources. Microalgae and macroalgae could be significant in the long-term.
4. Using timber or dedicated energy crops for carbon removal and storage creates risks with respect to food security, rural livelihoods and biodiversity conservation.
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BiCRS Roadmap – KEY MESSAGES (cont.)
5. Widespread adoption of sustainable biomass standards will be needed to address these risks.
6. Technologies are available to monitor biomass production and help ensure good practices.
7. We recommend a core principle: Do no harm
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Background
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• ~2.5 MtCO2/y –1000-2000 times less than potential
• Facilities include:— Combustion w/CCS
— Gasification-to-fuels w/CCS
— Ethanol w/CCS
— Pyrolysis w/bio-oil CCS
— Biochar
VERY FEW OPERATING FACILITIES TODAY
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Company / Project name
Technology Project StatusCurrently
storing CO2Country Feedstock
Primary product
Capacity for major
product
Geologic sequestration
at scale [MtCO2/yr]
DraxCombustion with
geologic sequestration
Pilot, full-scale announced No England Wood Electricity 2.6 GWe 16
TwenceCombustion with
geologic sequestration
Pilot No NetherlandsMunicipal
solid waste (MSW)
Electricity and heat
405 GWhe, 1.5 PJ heat 0.042
Fortum Oslo Varme
Combustion with geologic
sequestration
Full-scale demonstration No Norway MSW
Electricity and heat
10.5 MWe, 55 MW heat 0.2
Archer Daniels Midland
Ethanol with geologic
sequestrationOperational Yes US Corn Corn
ethanol 300 Mgal/yr 1
ArkalonEthanol with enhanced oil
recoveryOperational Yes US Corn
Corn ethanol 110 Mgal/yr 0.17
BonanzaEthanol with enhanced oil
recoveryOperational Yes US Corn
Corn ethanol 55 Mgal/yr 0.1
White Energy Plainview
Ethanol with enhanced oil
recoveryIn planning No US Corn
Corn ethanol 120 Mgal/yr 0.342
White Energy Hereford
Ethanol with enhanced oil
recoveryIn planning No US Corn
Corn ethanol 120 Mgal/yr 0.342
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BIOMASS CAN BE USED FOR CARBON REMOVAL WITHOUT ENERGY PRODUCTION
• Biochar from thermochemical biomass processing for soil improvements
• Engineered wood products for the construction market
• Bio-liquid production and direct injection to the subsurface
• Marine macroalgae production and abyssal dispatch
• Biofiber entombment in concrete
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CARBON REMOVAL VALUE OF BIOMASS MAY EXCEED ITS ENERGY VALUE
• Biomass is half carbon. One ton of biomass produces 1.8 tons of CO2.
• The value of this CO2depends on the carbon price.
• One ton of biomass (oven-dry) contains appr. 18 GJ of energy.
• This energy value is low compared to the CO2value in many cases.
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Leads to the new term: BIOMASS CARBON REMOVAL AND STORAGE
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Rationale and Risks
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CARBON DIOXIDE REMOVAL (CDR) ESSENTIAL FOR MEETING CLIMATE GOALS
• CDR is additional and complementary to conventional mitigation
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“All pathways that limit global warming to 1.5°C with limited or no overshoot project the use of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) on the order of 100–1000 GtCO2
over the 21st century.”
— IPCC 1.5°C Report (2018)
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MANY APPROACHES TO CARBON DIOXIDE REMOVAL
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WHAT IN DUSTRIES HOLD POTEN TIAL FOR CARBONREM OVAL SOLUTION S?
Fo restry/Lan d Ag ricu ltu re Energ y M anu factu rin g M in in g
Tim b er
EcosystemResto ratio n Bioch ar
Lan d M an ag em en t
Bioenerg y + CCS
D irect Air Cap tu re
Carb on N eg ative M ateria ls
Enh anced W eath erin g
BIOLOGICAL CHEMICAL
WHY DO W E N EED CARBON REM OVAL? (con t.)
Path to 2°CBillio
n T
on
s C
arb
on
Dio
xid
e
CARBON REMOVAL
2100
0
100
-20
50
205020252000 2075
“The large majority of scenarios produced
in the literature that reach roughly 450
ppm CO2eq by 2100 are characterized by
concentration overshoot facilitated by the
deployment of carbon dioxide removal
(CDR) technologies.”
IPCC: Fifth Assessment Report on Climate
Change. Chapter 6 from Working Group 3
Models show that carbon removal solutions are not just critical for limiting global tempera-
ture increases to 2°C, but also are relied upon to prevent even higher scenarios of warming.
BAU
Graphic adapted from the Climate Institute Moving Below Zero report
Center for Carbon Removal
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• Adverse impacts on food security
• Adverse impacts on rural livelihoods
• Ecosystem damages, including biodiversity loss
• CO2 removal benefit reduced or eliminated due to indirect land use change
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These are not technical issues.These are social, operational and policy issues.
USING BIOMASS FOR CARBON CAPTURE AND STORAGE CAN CREATE RISKS
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Biomass Potential
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THERE ARE MANY POTENTIAL SOURCES OF FEEDSTOCK FOR BiCRS
• Waste biomass is preferred— low impacts on food and fiber production
— includes agricultural, forestry, industrial and municipal wastes.
• Dedicated crops may be used in limited amounts.— constrained by land availability for food
and fiber production.
• Managed forests may provide limited biomass.— must be carefully monitored and managed
• Micro- and macro-algae (seaweed) may provide increasing amounts of feedstock.
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BiCRS FEEDSTOCKS ARE AVAILABLE FOR 2.5 TO 5 GTCO2
REMOVAL/YEAR BY 2050
• No comprehensive analysis of BiCRS feedstock has yet been performed.
• Combining biofuel feedstock estimates with “capturable carbon” fraction gives a functional estimate.
• Realistic projections that preserve food and fiber production and ecosystem protection give 2.5 – 5.0 Gt/y of CO2 removal.
• Higher estimates rely on large, unrealistic land-use change.
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Red square: 500 Mha, the area proposed for dedicated biomass crops by unrealistically high biofuel feedstock estimates.
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Transport
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WOOD PELLET GLOBAL TRADE IS CURRENTLY 22 MILLION TONS/YEAR
• Largest biomass global market is wood pellets (power & heat)— Exports: North America,
with growth in Asia.
— Imports: Europe, with growth in Asia.
• Infrastructure needed— Prep for transport
(e.g. pelletization)
— Shipping and handling upgrades
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ETHANOL GLOBAL TRADE IS CURRENTLY 17 BILLION LITERS/YEAR
• Largest biomass global market is wood pellets (power & heat)— Exports: US & Brazil
— Imports: North America, EU, Japan.
• Infrastructure established for shipping & handling (i.e., liquid hydrocarbons)
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Carbon Captureand Storage
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BiCRS REQUIRES CARBON STORAGE. GEOLOGICAL STORAGE IS THE MOST DEVELOPED AND READY APPROACH.
• Good CO2 storage options near both production and consumption centers— Southern US, SE Asia, Brazil
— EU-North Sea, Canada, Brazil
• Co-location of conversion and storage provides job and climate benefits— Upgrade to higher value products
— Potential CO2 removal revenue
• Two jobs to maximize opportunity— Infrastructure: pipelines and well
assessed storage
— Characterization: especially in developing nations
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STORAGE IN LONG-LIVED PRODUCTS
• Biochar
• Engineered wood products, like Oriented Strand Board (OSB)
• Bioplastics like bio-derived polyethylene
• Biofiber entombment in concrete
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Research Agenda
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RESEARCH AGENDA
• Technology
• Social sciences
• Integrated analysis
• Timeline
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TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENT
Hydrogen – Develop biomass supply chain that recovers all carbon for storage
New Pathways – Biochar, engineered wood, direct biomass storage, enhanced concrete
Fast Pyrolysis – Scale-up and processing to liquid transportation fuels
Satellite Monitoring – Allow purchasers to ensure land use and land cover compliance
Plant Breeding – Improve soil carbon (perennials and rootstock) and processability
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SOCIAL SCIENCES
• The most important issue is the biomass supply chain:— Who controls it?
— Who benefits?
— Where are those benefits found?
Opportunities and risks for local communities must be clearly determined.
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SOCIAL SCIENCE RESEARCH PRIORITIES
• Draw from multiple connected disciplines including economics, political science and sociology
• Draw on related fields including agronomy, nutrition, hydrology and engineering
• Focus on characterizing and increasing “social demand” for BiCRS and other forms of CO2 removal
1. Synthesis research that looks at lessons on carbon sink enhancement, scaling up biofuels / the bioeconomy, and past and present energy transitions, including on the investment gap with CCS and clean energy technologies;
2. Regional and landscape-level analysis of carbon removal technologies;
3. Analysis of policymaker and citizen demand for and knowledge of negative emissions; and
4. Work on technology diffusion, adoption, and transfer into different socio-economic contexts. 33
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INTEGRATED ANALYSIS
• BiRCS is a worldwide issue.
• Evaluating BiRCS requires balanced assessment of impacts over the full
Social,
Economic, and
Environmental life
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NEW SATELLITE APPROACHES: Continuous, Near-real-time Deforestation Monitoring
• Synthetic aperture radar (SAR): tree canopy at high resolution
• Rapid data processing: near-real-time monitoring for deforestation
• AI and machine learning: new algorithms to improve accuracy and precision
Government support for flagship satellite missions is essential
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Left: ALOS-2 satellite (JAXA) with PALSAR-2 instrumentRight: Example of forest cover monitoring using SAR data (Truong2019)
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Policy
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.
POLICY SUPPORT IS ESSENTIAL
1. Incentives for removing carbon from the atmosphere— Emissions trading programs
— Tax policy
— Mandates
2. Support for RD&D— R&D: government spending
— Deployment: tax incentives, grants, loan guarantees, procurement
3. Standard-Setting— Measuring, reporting and verification; accounting; life-cycle
emissions; time frames; leakage
— UNFCCC BiCRS Platform?
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Findings and Recommendations
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BiCRS ROADMAP (Part 2)
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BiCRS ROADMAP
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BiCRS ROADMAP – KEY MESSAGES
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1. Biomass carbon removal and storage (BiCRS) could deliver 2.5-5.0 Gt/y CO2 removal and storage by mid-century.
2. Biggest issues to be addressed are institutional and political, not technical.
3. Wastes (agricultural, forestry and municipal) are attractive initial biomass sources. Microalgae and macroalgae could be significant in the long-term.
4. Using timber or dedicated energy crops for carbon removal and storage creates risks with respect to food security, rural livelihoods and biodiversity conservation.
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BiCRS ROADMAP – KEY MESSAGES (cont.)
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5. Widespread adoption of sustainable biomass standards will be needed to address these risks.
6. Technologies are available to monitor biomass production and help ensure good practices.
7. We recommend a core principle: Do no harm
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This roadmap was prepared to facilitate dialogue at the Seventh Innovation for Cool Earth Forum (October 2020), for final release in December 2020. We are deeply grateful to the
Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) and New Energy and Industrial Technology Development Organization (NEDO), Japan, for launching and supporting the ICEF
Innovation Roadmap Project of which this is a part.
Roger Aines contributed to the technical evaluations in this document. The policy recommendations were prepared by other contributors.
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