David GargettAfzal Hossain

13 February 2007

PASSENGER MOVEMENTS BETWEEN AUSTRALIAN CITIES,

1970–71 TO 2030–31

Background

• Arose from need to forecast light vehicle traffic on the national highways.

• But need to consider all modes.

• Thus aim is to model drivers of total passenger travel between cities.

• Only then can one predict highway car travel patterns.

Objectives

• Estimation of passenger movements by mode between Australian major cities from 1970-71 to 2003-04.

• What will growth be to 2030-31 in passenger movements by mode between Australian cities?

Ten city pairs• Sydney-Melbourne

• Sydney-Brisbane

• Melbourne-Brisbane

• Melbourne-Adelaide

• Eastern States-Perth

• Sydney-Adelaide

• Melbourne and Sydney-Gold Coast

• Eastern States-Tasmania

• Canberra-Sydney

• Eastern States-Northern Territory

Modes

• Air

• Car

• Coach

• Rail

• Other

Time series

Historical Data: 1970-71 to 2003-04

Projections: 2004-05 to 2030-31

Based on

GDP (Treasury)

Population Growth Rates (ABS)

Changes in Fares (various sources)

Main data sources

• Designed around tourism data on inter-regional passenger movements.

• Because the data has been and continues to be measured by Tourism Research Australia (TRA), to the tune of $4M/year.

• TRA surveys both domestic and international travellers about their travel between the regions of Australia.

• This data has been assembled for the 10 city pairs by mode from 1970-71 to 2003-04.

Gravity Model

Total passenger travel between any two cities (say i and j) can be calculated:

Tij = (Pi x Pj x GDPc2)0.524 / (Tc / CPI)-0.565

where

Tij - Total trips between regions i and j.

Pi and Pj - Total population in region i and region j.

GDPc - National gross domestic product per capita.

Tc - Real generalised cost of travel.

CPI - Consumer Price Index.

Logistic Substitution Model

• Forecasts of total travel were converted to forecasts for specific modes by using logistic substitution models of mode split.

• For each mode, a competitiveness index was estimated based on changes in the mode share over the last decade.

• A competitiveness index below 1.0 means the mode is expected to decline over time in share relative to air.

Logistic Substitution Model – Contd.

For example, on the short Canberra-Sydney route, the competitiveness indices are:

 

Air - 1.00Car - 1.02Coach - 0.98Rail - 1.03

 

On the long Sydney-Brisbane route (more typical of the intercity routes), the competitiveness indices are:

 

Air – 1.00Car - 0.97Coach- 0.93Rail - 0.93

Passenger Movements by ModeSydney-Brisbane

0

2 000

4 000

6 000

1970

-71

1974

-75

1978

-79

1982

-83

1986

-87

1990

-91

1994

-95

1998

-99

2002

-03

2006

-07

2010

-11

2014

-15

2018

-19

2022

-23

2026

-27

2030

-31

RailCoachCarAir

Actual Forecasts

Pas

sen

ger

('0

00)

Mode Share (per cent) Sydney-Brisbane

0

20

40

60

80

100

19

70

-71

19

74

-75

19

78

-79

19

82

-83

19

86

-87

19

90

-91

19

94

-95

19

98

-99

20

02

-03

20

06

-07

20

10

-11

20

14

-15

20

18

-19

20

22

-23

20

26

-27

20

30

-31

AirCarCoachRail

Actual Forecasts

Pe

r c

en

t

Average annual growth rates by mode,1970-71 to 2003-04

 City pairs (per cent)

  Air Car Coach Rail Other

Syd-Mel 5.1 -0.3 1.8 -2.1 3.0

Syd-Bne 4.6 0.5 0.7 -1.7 2.8

Mel-Bne 7.3 1.7 2.9 -2.4 5.9

Mel-Adl 4.5 2.0 0.6 -1.5 2.7

ES-Per 7.2 4.9 -0.8 -3.3 6.2

Syd-Adl 6.0 -0.1 -2.0 -1.5 3.5

Mel+Syd-GC 7.6 1.2 6.3 -1.6 3.8

ES-Tas 3.8 4.8 0.6 3.9 3.9

Cbr-Syd 3.0 4.0 4.6 -1.3 3.8

ES-NT 6.1 5.5 1.8 3.7 5.4

Average annual growth rates comparison (all modes)

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0

ES-NT

Cbr-Syd

ES-Tas

Mel+Syd-GC

Syd-Adl

ES-Per

Mel-Adl

Mel-Bne

Syd-Bne

Syd-Mel

(per cent)

1970-71 to 2003-042004-05 to 2030-31

So what do we get ?1. An understanding of the drivers of

travel.

2. An understanding of the patterns of mode share change.

3. A link to a continuing and funded data source updated yearly.

4. 1 to 3 provide the basis for the OZPASS interregional travel model.

5. Forecasts out of the OZPASS model are providing forecasts of car traffic along AUSLINK Corridors.

These forecasts are:

1. Systematic – based on transparent research.

2. Validated – Bruce Highways over 10 years.

3. Multi-modal – e.g. current airports project.

4. Open to scenarios – i.e. policy changes or changes in assumed conditions (e.g. fares).

Summary

• On all routes, except Canberra–Sydney route, air travel has been progressively taking mode share from car plus coach and rail.

• This effect will be less important in the future as the rate of mode share capture by air slows.

• Overall, total passenger travel growth is expected to continue to grow more quickly than GDP.

• The relationships found on the 10 corridors have been built into the OZPASS interregional travel model.

FOR A COPY OF THE PUBLICATION VISIT:

www.btre.gov.au/Publications/Information Sheet/

Information Sheet 26

Thank you

Any question ?