David Cantor, The Glover Park Group November 16, 2012

PRESENTED BY:

David Cantor, The Glover Park Group

November 16, 2012

The National Association of Business Political Action Committees

2012 NABPAC POST-ELECTION CONFERENCE

ELECTION 2012 Post-Election Analysis

Takeaways Trends and momentum matter

Obama maintained 2008 coalition

Coalition supplemented by auto-bailout

Role of the economy

Incumbency, organization, targeting, and math won

Partisan primaries cost Republicans

Still… close election and closely divided country

THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES | 2


PRESIDENTIAL RESULTSWhat Happened?

OR

AK

KY

NM

MN

CO

GA

NC

NH3

117

55

5

4 3

5

10

5

9

334

4

3

4

34

31

67

107

116

9 6 9 15

27

815

131

1

21

11

10 1

7 20

21

8 5

Obama

365

McCain

173

1

VT3

RI4

NJ15

CT7

DE3

MD10

DC3

MA12

NH4


A RECAP OF THE 2008 ELECTION

Obama 332 Romney 206

OR

AK

KY

NM

MN

CO

GA

NC

NH3

127

55

6

4 3

6

11

5

9

335

4

3

4

38

29

67

106

106

8 6 9 16

29

915

131

1

20

11

10 1

6 18

20

8 5

Party change from ‘08

VT3

RI4

NJ15

CT7

DE3

MD10

DC3

MA12

NH4


2012 ELECTION RESULTS– OBAMA ONLY LOSES TWO STATES FROM 2008 MAP

Democrats: 55 (+2) Republicans: 45 (-2)

OR

AK

KY

NM

MN

CO

GA

NC

NH

Warren(D): 53.7%Brown (R-i): 46.3%

King (D/I): 53.0%Summers (R): 30.6%Dill (D): 13.1%

Donelly (D): 49.9%Mourdock (R): 44.4%

Fischer(R): 58.2%Kerrey (D): 41.8%

Source: CNN THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES | 6

SENATE: POST-ELECTION – DEMS GAIN TWO SEATS


Trends and Momentum

2007-2008 OBAMA vs. MCCAIN HEAD TO HEAD


2008 NL EAST RACE


Phillies

Nats

Mets

Source: Pollster.com Aggregate Data

OBAMA JUMPED AHEAD OF ROMNEY IN CLOSING DAYS


2012 NL EAST RACE


Phillies

Nats

Mets

Source: InTrade

PREDICTION MARKET (AND BETTING $) CONSISTENTLY FAVORED OBAMA


Source: CBS News Poll, October 17-20, 2012

Do you think the economy is getting better, getting worse, or staying about the same?

Oct-11

Nov-11

Dec-11

Jan-12

Feb-12

Mar-12

Apr-12

Jul-12

Aug-12

Sep-12

Oct-12

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

36%32% 30%

23% 22% 24%28%

30% 30%

28% 27%

49% 50%45%

49%43% 44%

38%45% 43%

39%

34%

14%18%

24%

28%34%

30% 33%

24% 25%

32%38%

Staying the SameGetting worse

Getting better

STARTING IN AUGUST, AMERICANS’ VIEWS ON THE ECONOMY BECAME MORE OPTIMISTIC


Source: Pollster.com Aggregate Data

October 2004 %

Wrong Track 47

Right Direction 41

Nov 1996 %

Wrong Track 40

Right Direction 41

October 1992 %

Wrong Track 69

Right Direction 16

As of November 6, 2012 A Look Back

Source: NBC News/WSJ

Nov 2008 %

Wrong Track 76

Right Direction 11

October 2000 %

Wrong Track 32

Right Direction 48





WRONG TRACK 52.8%

RIGHT DIRECTION 41.5%


NUMBER WHO THOUGHT COUNTRY WAS ON THE WRONG TRACK TRENDED DOWN LEADING INTO THE ELECTION

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Jan 2009 – October 2012

Jan May Sep Jan May Se

p Jan May Sep Jan May Se

p0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

7.8

9.5

10.09.9

9.8

9.0 9.08.3 8.1

7.8

7.9

StateUnemployment Rate (Sept

2012)

National 7.8%

Nevada 11.8%North

Carolina 9.6%

Florida 8.7%

Colorado 8%

Wisconsin 7.3%

Ohio 7%

Virginia 5.9%New

Hampshire 5.7%

Iowa 5.2%

UNEMPLOYMENT RATE DROPPED AS ELECTION APPROACHED, VARIED WIDELY IN SWING STATES

2009

2010

2011

2012


DISAPPROVE

APPROVE

Source: Gallup Poll Daily Tracking

Each result is based on a three-day rolling average

Nov 3-5

OBAMA’S JOB APPROVAL TRENDED UP AS RACE ENTERED THE HOME STRETCH


PRESIDENTIAL RESULTSHow Did It Happen?



Demographics and the 2008 Coalition

% of Electorate 2004 2008 2012

White 77% 74% 72%

Black 12% 13% 13%

Hispanic/Latino 8% 9% 10%

Source: 2004-2012 Exit Polls

Spread 2004 2008 2012

White +17R +12R +20R

Black +77D +91D +87D

Hispanic/Latino +9D +36D +44D

Hispanic vote growing

And trending toward Obama


WHITE VOTE CONTINUES TO DECLINE AS % OF ELECTORATRE


National 8 9 10Colorado 8 13 14Florida 15 14 17Nevada 10 15 18

North Carolina 1 3 4Ohio 3 4 3

Virginia 3 5 5Wisconsin 2 3 4

The Latino vote grew, especially in Florida and Nevada

Obama’s margins increased – especially in Florida and Colorado

Spread 2004 2008 2012

National +9D +36D +44DColorado +38D +23D +49DFlorida +12R +15D +22DNevada +21D +54D +45D

North Carolina - - +31DOhio +30D - +16 D

Virginia - +31D +32 DWisconsin +4D - +37D

Source: 2004-2012 Exit PollsTHE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES | 20

LATINO TURNOUT UP TWO POINTS, SUPPORT FOR OBAMA STRENGTHENS FROM 2008


18-29 17 18 1930-44 29 29 2745-64 30 37 3865+ 24 16 16


Spread 2004 2008 2012

18-29 +9D +34D +23D30-44 +7R +6D +7D45-64 +3R +1D +4R65+ +8R +8R +12R


SHIFT AWAY FROM OBAMA AMONG ALL AGE GROUPS EXCEPT 30-44 YEAR OLDS


+11 R

+1D

+7R

+3D

+13D+11D

MenWomen

2004

2008

2012


GENDER DIVIDE WIDENS TO 18 POINTS FROM 12 IN 2008

2004 2008 2012

Democrat 38% 39% 38%

Independent 26% 29% 29%

Republican 38% 32% 32%

Party Split Even D+7 D+6

Source: 2004-2012 Exit PollsTHE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES | 23

PARTISAN DIVIDE REMAINS STEADY FROM 2008

How do you feel about the federal government's aid to U.S. automakers?

Source: 2012 Exit Polls

PRESIDENT OBAMA’S SUPPORT OF THE AUTO BAILOUT HELPED HIM IN CRITICAL SWING STATES

Approve Approve Approve62%+53D

53%

60%+59

D+48

D

Michigan Wisconsin Ohio



The Economy

Source: Gallup Poll, October 15-16, 2012

What do you think is the most important problem facing this country today?

Oct 2011

Nov 2011

Dec 2011

Jan 2012

Feb 2012

Mar 2012

Apr 2012

May 2012

June 2012

July 2012

Aug 2012

Sept 2012

Oct 2012

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

32%36%

25% 26%

30%26% 25%

22%25%

28%

23%

32%

26%

31%30% 26%

31% 31% 31% 32% 31% 31%29%

31%

29%

37%

13% 13%16% 15% 16%

13% 12%14%

12% 13%15%

12% 12%

9%6%

12%8% 8% 9%

11%9%

11%7% 7%

10% 9%

Unemployment Economy Dissatisfaction with gov'tFederal Budget Deficit

PROBLEM %The economy 37

Unemployment 26

Federal budget deficit 12

Dissatisfaction with gov’t 9

Health care 7

Lack of money 5

Education 4

Foreign aid/Focus overseas 4

Ethical/moral/family decline 4

Results <4% not shown

ECONOMIC CONCERNS DRIVE ELECTORAL AGENDA


Source: 2012 Exit PollsTHE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES | 27

“THE ECONOMY” WAS #1 ISSUE AND SLIGHTLY FAVORED ROMNEY, BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR THE WIN

Which ONE of these four is the biggest economic problem facing people like you?


BUT A DEEPER DIVE ON ECONOMIC MEASURES SHOWS ROMNEY ONLY OUTPERFORMS ON TAXES

Source: CNN and MSNBC exit polls

Total Obama Romney

Better today 25% 84% 15%Worse today 33% 18% 80%

About the same 41% 58% 40%

Obama wins among those who believe things are the same from four years ago.

Total Obama Romney

Barack Obama 38% 5% 94%

George W. Bush 53% 85% 12%

Compared to four years ago, is your family's financial situation:

Who is more to blame for current economic problems?Voters still blame George Bush for current economic problems.


FEW ARE SEEING PROGRESS FINANCIALLY, BUSH STILL BLAMED FOR CURRENT ECONOMIC PROBLEMS

Source: CNN Poll, Sept 7-9, 2012.

Do you think the policies of Barack Obama and the Democrats or George W. Bush and the Republicans are more responsible for the country's current economic problems?

Sep-10 Apr-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Mar-12 Sep-120%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

33%30% 29%

32%29%

38%

53% 55% 57%52%

56% 54%

10% 10% 10%13%

10%5%4% 4% 3% 4% 4%

3%

Both Equally

Bush and the Republicans

Obama and the Democrats

SINCE 2010 MAJORITY HAVE BLAMED BUSH FOR THE COUNTRY’S ECONOMIC PROMBLEMS


Neither/No opinion

* Sept 2012 asked of likely voters, other dates asked of all Americans..

Source: CBS News Poll, March 18-21, 2011

Who do you think is mostly to blame for the current state of the nation’s economy – (1) the Bush Administration, (2) the Obama Administration, (3) Wall Street and financial institutions, (4) Congress, or (5) someone else?

BUSH ADMINISTARTION AND WALL STREET STILL BLAMED FOR CURRENT ECONOMIC CONDITIONS


All of the above (vol.)

Combination (vol.)

Someone else

Obama administration

Congress

Wall Street

Bush administration

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

7%

14%

7%

7%

10%

22%

28%


ROMNEY WINS ON NEARLY ALL TRAITS, YET OBAMA STILL WON ELECTION

Has a vision for the future29% Sprea

d

+9R

Total

Shares my values 27% +13RCares about people like me21% +63DIs a strong leader 18% +23R


EMPATHY TRUMPS ECONOMY?

Who is more in touch with people like you?

% Vote Obama

Vote Romney

Obama 53% 91% 9%

Romney 43% 1% 98%

Obama more in touch with voters

Split on economy

Who would better handle the economy?

% Vote Obama

Vote Romney

Obama 48% 98% 1%

Romney 49% 4% 94%



Incumbency, Organization, Targeting,

and Math

Source: National Journal

$ millions

OBAMA ROMNEY Overall Spending Advantag

e

Campaign

Outside Spending Total Campaig

nOutside

Spending Total

Colorado $29.8 $9.1 $38.3 $17.0 $24.5 $41.5 $3.1Florida $66.7 $11.1 $77.7 $44.0 $60.3 $104.3 $26.6Iowa $24.6 $4.0 $28.6 $16.5 $26.1 $42.6 $14.0

Nevada $22.2 $3.7 $25.8 $12.2 $20.2 $32.4 $6.6New

Hampshire $21.4 $.05 $21.5 $5.5 $11.9 $17.4 $4.2

North Carolina $24.2 $0 $24.2 $17.1 $28.1 $45.2 $21.0

Ohio $72.8 $18.9 $91.7 $43.2 $57.4 $100.6 $8.9Virginia $52.9 $13.8 $66.8 $33.2 $49.3 $82.5 $15.7

Wisconsin $11.2 $3.6 $14.7 $7.7 $23.3 $31.0 $16.3

Barack Obama Total Spending: $389.3 million

Campaign Spending: $333.4 millionPAC Spending: $64.2 million

Romney Swing State Advertising Spending Advantage +$108.2 million

Mitt RomneyTotal Spending: $497.5 million

Campaign Spending: $196.4 millionPAC Spending: $301.0 million


ROMNEY HAD CLEAR $ ADVANTAGE IN ADVERTISING…

Source: Obama and Romney Websites

Swing State Field Offices

Obama Romney Obama Advantage

Colorado 62 13 +49Florida 104 47 +57Iowa 67 13 +54

Nevada 26 11 +15New

Hampshire

22 8 +14

North Carolina 54 23 +31

Ohio 131 39 +92Virginia 61 28 +33

Wisconsin 69 23 +46

Romney Field Offices

205

Obama Field Offices

596


…BUT OBAMA’S GROUND GAME ADVANTAGE WAS STAGGERING AND CRITICAL TO HIS SUCCESS

Source: Obama and Romney Campaigns

Obama Campaign made

125 million personal contacts*

RomneyCampaign made

50 million personal contacts**

**Since the spring*Since the last election

When did you finally decide for whom to vote in the presidential election?

% Spread

Just today 3 +7DIn the last few

days 6 +5D

In October 11 +1D

In September 9 +8R

Before that 69 +7D


OBAMA’S VOTER CONTACT EFFORTS GREATLY EXCEEDED ROMNEY’S AND MAY HAVE PERSUADED LATE DECIDERS

2004 2008 2012

Government should do more to solve problems 46% 51% 43%

Government is doing too many things better left to businesses and individuals

49% 43% 51%


HOT ISSUES FOR NEW CONGRESS: VIEW OF GOVERNMENT

Obama RomneyEXPAND IT OR LEAVE IT AS IS (44%) 87% 11%

Expand it (26%) 92% 5%Leave It As Is (18%) 80% 19%

REPEAL SOME OF IT OR ALL OF IT (49%) 15% 83%Repeal some of it (24%) 27% 72%

Repeal all of it (25%) 3% 93%


HOT ISSUES FOR NEW CONGRESS: 2010 HEALTH CARE LAW

Obama Romney

Increase For All (13%) 52% 44%Increase Only On Income

Over $250K (47%) 70% 29%

Not Increase Them For Anyone (35%) 23% 75%

Obama RomneyFavors the Wealthy

(55%) 71% 26%

Is Fair to Most Americans (39%) 22% 77%

U.S. Economic

System


HOT ISSUES FOR NEW CONGRESS: INCOME TAXES

Obama Romney

Offered a chance to apply for legal status (65%)

61% 37%

Deported to the country they came

from (28%)24% 73%

Should most illegal immigrants working in the United States be:


HOT ISSUES FOR NEW CONGRESS: IMMIGRATION

Source: Pew Research Center, Nov. 8-11,2012.THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES | 43

THE FISCAL CLIFF SEEN AS THREAT TO BOTH NATIONAL AND PERSONAL FINANCES

If these automatic spending cuts and tax increases go into effect, do you think they would have a major effect, minor effect or no effect on the [U.S. economy/your own financial situation]? ASKED OF THOSE WHO BELIEVE THERE WILL BE AN EFFECT: And would the effect on the [U.S. economy/your own financial situation] be mostly positive or mostly negative?

Effect of automatic tax increases and spending cuts on… The U.S.

economyYour own financial situation

Major effect 68 44

Minor effect 21 38

No effect 2 9

Don’t know 10 9

Effect will be…

Mostly negative 62 60

Mostly positive 20 17

No effect/Don’t know 18 24

Source: Pew Research Center, Nov. 8-11,2012.THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES | 44

PUBLIC SKEPTICAL ABOUT AGREEMENT; MORE WOULD BLAME REPUBLICANS

Do you think President Obama and Republicans will reach an agreement to prevent automatic spending cuts and tax increases from going into effect before January 1st, or not?If an agreement is not reached, who do you think would be more to blame: Republicans in Congress or President Obama?

Will President Obama and Repsin Congress reach agreement? Total Rep Dem Ind

Yes 38 25 47 37

No 51 66 40 51

Don’t know 11 9 12 11

More to blame if agreement not reached…

Reps in Congress 53 12 85 53

President Obama 29 68 7 23

Both 10 13 4 12

Neither 2 3 * 3

Don’t know 7 4 3 10

Dems more optimistic on deal

Independents more likely to blame Republican Congress

For more information about this presentation or to find out more about GPG’s research capabilities

contact:

David Cantor ([email protected])


David Cantor, The Glover Park Group November 16, 2012

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