Data Science: The End of Statistics? · President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology...
Transcript of Data Science: The End of Statistics? · President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology...
![Page 1: Data Science: The End of Statistics? · President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST) includes ... 0 statisticians! Chief Data Scientist of the United States](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062605/5fd367cee21ad65fd001f612/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Data Science: The End of Statistics?
Larry WassermanCarnegie Mellon University
Interface 2015
![Page 2: Data Science: The End of Statistics? · President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST) includes ... 0 statisticians! Chief Data Scientist of the United States](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062605/5fd367cee21ad65fd001f612/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Conclusion
Let’s turn the Interface meeting into the statistics version of NIPS
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Conclusion
Let’s turn the Interface meeting into the statistics version of NIPS
![Page 4: Data Science: The End of Statistics? · President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST) includes ... 0 statisticians! Chief Data Scientist of the United States](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062605/5fd367cee21ad65fd001f612/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
This Talk
Will be short
Will be annoying provocative
![Page 5: Data Science: The End of Statistics? · President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST) includes ... 0 statisticians! Chief Data Scientist of the United States](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062605/5fd367cee21ad65fd001f612/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
This Talk
Will be short
Will be annoying provocative
![Page 6: Data Science: The End of Statistics? · President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST) includes ... 0 statisticians! Chief Data Scientist of the United States](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062605/5fd367cee21ad65fd001f612/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
This Talk
Will be short
Will be annoying provocative
![Page 7: Data Science: The End of Statistics? · President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST) includes ... 0 statisticians! Chief Data Scientist of the United States](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062605/5fd367cee21ad65fd001f612/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Main Points
• Statisticians are being left out
• This should worry everyone (not just statisticians)
• It’s (partly) our fault
• We need a culture shift:
1. modernize training (no more UMVUE’s)
2. embrace the CS conference culture
3. watch and learn from CS: active learning, deep learning, SVM,online learning, RKHS, differential privacy ...
![Page 8: Data Science: The End of Statistics? · President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST) includes ... 0 statisticians! Chief Data Scientist of the United States](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062605/5fd367cee21ad65fd001f612/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Main Points
• Statisticians are being left out
• This should worry everyone (not just statisticians)
• It’s (partly) our fault
• We need a culture shift:
1. modernize training (no more UMVUE’s)
2. embrace the CS conference culture
3. watch and learn from CS: active learning, deep learning, SVM,online learning, RKHS, differential privacy ...
![Page 9: Data Science: The End of Statistics? · President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST) includes ... 0 statisticians! Chief Data Scientist of the United States](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062605/5fd367cee21ad65fd001f612/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Main Points
• Statisticians are being left out
• This should worry everyone (not just statisticians)
• It’s (partly) our fault
• We need a culture shift:
1. modernize training (no more UMVUE’s)
2. embrace the CS conference culture
3. watch and learn from CS: active learning, deep learning, SVM,online learning, RKHS, differential privacy ...
![Page 10: Data Science: The End of Statistics? · President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST) includes ... 0 statisticians! Chief Data Scientist of the United States](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062605/5fd367cee21ad65fd001f612/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Main Points
• Statisticians are being left out
• This should worry everyone (not just statisticians)
• It’s (partly) our fault
• We need a culture shift:
1. modernize training (no more UMVUE’s)
2. embrace the CS conference culture
3. watch and learn from CS: active learning, deep learning, SVM,online learning, RKHS, differential privacy ...
![Page 11: Data Science: The End of Statistics? · President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST) includes ... 0 statisticians! Chief Data Scientist of the United States](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062605/5fd367cee21ad65fd001f612/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Main Points
• Statisticians are being left out
• This should worry everyone (not just statisticians)
• It’s (partly) our fault
• We need a culture shift:
1. modernize training (no more UMVUE’s)
2. embrace the CS conference culture
3. watch and learn from CS: active learning, deep learning, SVM,online learning, RKHS, differential privacy ...
![Page 12: Data Science: The End of Statistics? · President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST) includes ... 0 statisticians! Chief Data Scientist of the United States](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062605/5fd367cee21ad65fd001f612/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Where are the Statisticians?
• President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology(PCAST) includes ...
0 statisticians!
• Chief Data Scientist of the United States Office of Science andTechnology Policy.Not a statistician.
• Forbes: World’s 7 Most Powerful Data Scientists0 statisticians.
• Startups?• Google, Microsoft, Facebook all have Chief Economists. ChiefStatisticians?
![Page 13: Data Science: The End of Statistics? · President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST) includes ... 0 statisticians! Chief Data Scientist of the United States](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062605/5fd367cee21ad65fd001f612/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Where are the Statisticians?
• President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology(PCAST) includes ...0 statisticians!
• Chief Data Scientist of the United States Office of Science andTechnology Policy.Not a statistician.
• Forbes: World’s 7 Most Powerful Data Scientists0 statisticians.
• Startups?• Google, Microsoft, Facebook all have Chief Economists. ChiefStatisticians?
![Page 14: Data Science: The End of Statistics? · President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST) includes ... 0 statisticians! Chief Data Scientist of the United States](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062605/5fd367cee21ad65fd001f612/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Where are the Statisticians?
• President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology(PCAST) includes ...0 statisticians!
• Chief Data Scientist of the United States Office of Science andTechnology Policy.
Not a statistician.
• Forbes: World’s 7 Most Powerful Data Scientists0 statisticians.
• Startups?• Google, Microsoft, Facebook all have Chief Economists. ChiefStatisticians?
![Page 15: Data Science: The End of Statistics? · President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST) includes ... 0 statisticians! Chief Data Scientist of the United States](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062605/5fd367cee21ad65fd001f612/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Where are the Statisticians?
• President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology(PCAST) includes ...0 statisticians!
• Chief Data Scientist of the United States Office of Science andTechnology Policy.Not a statistician.
• Forbes: World’s 7 Most Powerful Data Scientists0 statisticians.
• Startups?• Google, Microsoft, Facebook all have Chief Economists. ChiefStatisticians?
![Page 16: Data Science: The End of Statistics? · President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST) includes ... 0 statisticians! Chief Data Scientist of the United States](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062605/5fd367cee21ad65fd001f612/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Where are the Statisticians?
• President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology(PCAST) includes ...0 statisticians!
• Chief Data Scientist of the United States Office of Science andTechnology Policy.Not a statistician.
• Forbes: World’s 7 Most Powerful Data Scientists
0 statisticians.
• Startups?• Google, Microsoft, Facebook all have Chief Economists. ChiefStatisticians?
![Page 17: Data Science: The End of Statistics? · President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST) includes ... 0 statisticians! Chief Data Scientist of the United States](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062605/5fd367cee21ad65fd001f612/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Where are the Statisticians?
• President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology(PCAST) includes ...0 statisticians!
• Chief Data Scientist of the United States Office of Science andTechnology Policy.Not a statistician.
• Forbes: World’s 7 Most Powerful Data Scientists0 statisticians.
• Startups?• Google, Microsoft, Facebook all have Chief Economists. ChiefStatisticians?
![Page 18: Data Science: The End of Statistics? · President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST) includes ... 0 statisticians! Chief Data Scientist of the United States](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062605/5fd367cee21ad65fd001f612/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Where are the Statisticians?
• President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology(PCAST) includes ...0 statisticians!
• Chief Data Scientist of the United States Office of Science andTechnology Policy.Not a statistician.
• Forbes: World’s 7 Most Powerful Data Scientists0 statisticians.
• Startups?
• Google, Microsoft, Facebook all have Chief Economists. ChiefStatisticians?
![Page 19: Data Science: The End of Statistics? · President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST) includes ... 0 statisticians! Chief Data Scientist of the United States](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062605/5fd367cee21ad65fd001f612/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Where are the Statisticians?
• President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology(PCAST) includes ...0 statisticians!
• Chief Data Scientist of the United States Office of Science andTechnology Policy.Not a statistician.
• Forbes: World’s 7 Most Powerful Data Scientists0 statisticians.
• Startups?• Google, Microsoft, Facebook all have Chief Economists. ChiefStatisticians?
![Page 20: Data Science: The End of Statistics? · President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST) includes ... 0 statisticians! Chief Data Scientist of the United States](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062605/5fd367cee21ad65fd001f612/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Everyone Should Care (Not Just Statisticians)
• Big Data + Bad Analysis = Bad Decisions
• Gary King: Big data is not about the data, it’s about theanalytics.
• Google search: big data bad analytics = 10,700,000 hits
• Statisticians have been doing data science for at least 100 years.
• You would not get brain surgery done by a cardiologist.
![Page 21: Data Science: The End of Statistics? · President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST) includes ... 0 statisticians! Chief Data Scientist of the United States](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062605/5fd367cee21ad65fd001f612/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Everyone Should Care (Not Just Statisticians)
• Big Data + Bad Analysis = Bad Decisions
• Gary King: Big data is not about the data, it’s about theanalytics.
• Google search: big data bad analytics = 10,700,000 hits
• Statisticians have been doing data science for at least 100 years.
• You would not get brain surgery done by a cardiologist.
![Page 22: Data Science: The End of Statistics? · President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST) includes ... 0 statisticians! Chief Data Scientist of the United States](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062605/5fd367cee21ad65fd001f612/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Everyone Should Care (Not Just Statisticians)
• Big Data + Bad Analysis = Bad Decisions
• Gary King: Big data is not about the data, it’s about theanalytics.
• Google search: big data bad analytics = 10,700,000 hits
• Statisticians have been doing data science for at least 100 years.
• You would not get brain surgery done by a cardiologist.
![Page 23: Data Science: The End of Statistics? · President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST) includes ... 0 statisticians! Chief Data Scientist of the United States](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062605/5fd367cee21ad65fd001f612/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Everyone Should Care (Not Just Statisticians)
• Big Data + Bad Analysis = Bad Decisions
• Gary King: Big data is not about the data, it’s about theanalytics.
• Google search: big data bad analytics = 10,700,000 hits
• Statisticians have been doing data science for at least 100 years.
• You would not get brain surgery done by a cardiologist.
![Page 24: Data Science: The End of Statistics? · President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST) includes ... 0 statisticians! Chief Data Scientist of the United States](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062605/5fd367cee21ad65fd001f612/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Everyone Should Care (Not Just Statisticians)
• Big Data + Bad Analysis = Bad Decisions
• Gary King: Big data is not about the data, it’s about theanalytics.
• Google search: big data bad analytics = 10,700,000 hits
• Statisticians have been doing data science for at least 100 years.
• You would not get brain surgery done by a cardiologist.
![Page 25: Data Science: The End of Statistics? · President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST) includes ... 0 statisticians! Chief Data Scientist of the United States](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062605/5fd367cee21ad65fd001f612/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Why Are Statisticians Left Out?
Statisticians are:
conservativestubborninflexiblebad at selling themselvesafraidexperts at saying what you can’t do
![Page 26: Data Science: The End of Statistics? · President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST) includes ... 0 statisticians! Chief Data Scientist of the United States](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062605/5fd367cee21ad65fd001f612/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
Why Are Statisticians Left Out?
Statisticians are:
conservative
stubborninflexiblebad at selling themselvesafraidexperts at saying what you can’t do
![Page 27: Data Science: The End of Statistics? · President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST) includes ... 0 statisticians! Chief Data Scientist of the United States](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062605/5fd367cee21ad65fd001f612/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
Why Are Statisticians Left Out?
Statisticians are:
conservativestubborn
inflexiblebad at selling themselvesafraidexperts at saying what you can’t do
![Page 28: Data Science: The End of Statistics? · President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST) includes ... 0 statisticians! Chief Data Scientist of the United States](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062605/5fd367cee21ad65fd001f612/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
Why Are Statisticians Left Out?
Statisticians are:
conservativestubborninflexible
bad at selling themselvesafraidexperts at saying what you can’t do
![Page 29: Data Science: The End of Statistics? · President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST) includes ... 0 statisticians! Chief Data Scientist of the United States](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062605/5fd367cee21ad65fd001f612/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
Why Are Statisticians Left Out?
Statisticians are:
conservativestubborninflexiblebad at selling themselves
afraidexperts at saying what you can’t do
![Page 30: Data Science: The End of Statistics? · President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST) includes ... 0 statisticians! Chief Data Scientist of the United States](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062605/5fd367cee21ad65fd001f612/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
Why Are Statisticians Left Out?
Statisticians are:
conservativestubborninflexiblebad at selling themselvesafraid
experts at saying what you can’t do
![Page 31: Data Science: The End of Statistics? · President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST) includes ... 0 statisticians! Chief Data Scientist of the United States](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062605/5fd367cee21ad65fd001f612/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
Why Are Statisticians Left Out?
Statisticians are:
conservativestubborninflexiblebad at selling themselvesafraidexperts at saying what you can’t do
![Page 32: Data Science: The End of Statistics? · President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST) includes ... 0 statisticians! Chief Data Scientist of the United States](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062605/5fd367cee21ad65fd001f612/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
A (mostly) True Story
• Astronomer asks us for help.
• We spend months learning the science, cleaning the data andcarefully analyzing the data.
• Some careful, modest results after one year.
• In the meantime...... my astronomer friend went to see my friends in ML.
• Two days later the ML people produced fancy plots, analyses etc.
• We complain that their analysis was not rigorous.
• Who will the astronomer go to in the future?
![Page 33: Data Science: The End of Statistics? · President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST) includes ... 0 statisticians! Chief Data Scientist of the United States](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062605/5fd367cee21ad65fd001f612/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
A (mostly) True Story
• Astronomer asks us for help.
• We spend months learning the science, cleaning the data andcarefully analyzing the data.
• Some careful, modest results after one year.
• In the meantime...... my astronomer friend went to see my friends in ML.
• Two days later the ML people produced fancy plots, analyses etc.
• We complain that their analysis was not rigorous.
• Who will the astronomer go to in the future?
![Page 34: Data Science: The End of Statistics? · President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST) includes ... 0 statisticians! Chief Data Scientist of the United States](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062605/5fd367cee21ad65fd001f612/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
A (mostly) True Story
• Astronomer asks us for help.
• We spend months learning the science, cleaning the data andcarefully analyzing the data.
• Some careful, modest results after one year.
• In the meantime...... my astronomer friend went to see my friends in ML.
• Two days later the ML people produced fancy plots, analyses etc.
• We complain that their analysis was not rigorous.
• Who will the astronomer go to in the future?
![Page 35: Data Science: The End of Statistics? · President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST) includes ... 0 statisticians! Chief Data Scientist of the United States](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062605/5fd367cee21ad65fd001f612/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
A (mostly) True Story
• Astronomer asks us for help.
• We spend months learning the science, cleaning the data andcarefully analyzing the data.
• Some careful, modest results after one year.
• In the meantime...
... my astronomer friend went to see my friends in ML.
• Two days later the ML people produced fancy plots, analyses etc.
• We complain that their analysis was not rigorous.
• Who will the astronomer go to in the future?
![Page 36: Data Science: The End of Statistics? · President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST) includes ... 0 statisticians! Chief Data Scientist of the United States](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062605/5fd367cee21ad65fd001f612/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
A (mostly) True Story
• Astronomer asks us for help.
• We spend months learning the science, cleaning the data andcarefully analyzing the data.
• Some careful, modest results after one year.
• In the meantime...... my astronomer friend went to see my friends in ML.
• Two days later the ML people produced fancy plots, analyses etc.
• We complain that their analysis was not rigorous.
• Who will the astronomer go to in the future?
![Page 37: Data Science: The End of Statistics? · President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST) includes ... 0 statisticians! Chief Data Scientist of the United States](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062605/5fd367cee21ad65fd001f612/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
A (mostly) True Story
• Astronomer asks us for help.
• We spend months learning the science, cleaning the data andcarefully analyzing the data.
• Some careful, modest results after one year.
• In the meantime...... my astronomer friend went to see my friends in ML.
• Two days later the ML people produced fancy plots, analyses etc.
• We complain that their analysis was not rigorous.
• Who will the astronomer go to in the future?
![Page 38: Data Science: The End of Statistics? · President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST) includes ... 0 statisticians! Chief Data Scientist of the United States](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062605/5fd367cee21ad65fd001f612/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
A (mostly) True Story
• Astronomer asks us for help.
• We spend months learning the science, cleaning the data andcarefully analyzing the data.
• Some careful, modest results after one year.
• In the meantime...... my astronomer friend went to see my friends in ML.
• Two days later the ML people produced fancy plots, analyses etc.
• We complain that their analysis was not rigorous.
• Who will the astronomer go to in the future?
![Page 39: Data Science: The End of Statistics? · President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST) includes ... 0 statisticians! Chief Data Scientist of the United States](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062605/5fd367cee21ad65fd001f612/html5/thumbnails/39.jpg)
A (mostly) True Story
• Astronomer asks us for help.
• We spend months learning the science, cleaning the data andcarefully analyzing the data.
• Some careful, modest results after one year.
• In the meantime...... my astronomer friend went to see my friends in ML.
• Two days later the ML people produced fancy plots, analyses etc.
• We complain that their analysis was not rigorous.
• Who will the astronomer go to in the future?
![Page 40: Data Science: The End of Statistics? · President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST) includes ... 0 statisticians! Chief Data Scientist of the United States](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062605/5fd367cee21ad65fd001f612/html5/thumbnails/40.jpg)
Anecdote: My One Week as Editor of JASA
I was hired as editor of JASA.
I insisted that the journal be made freely available, online.
I was fired.
ASA sold the rights to the journal to Taylor and Francis.
JASA is still behind a paywall.
Compare this to JMLR (Journal of Machine Learning Research)jmlr.org. or NIPS (nips.cc) or ICML (imcl.cc) etc.
![Page 41: Data Science: The End of Statistics? · President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST) includes ... 0 statisticians! Chief Data Scientist of the United States](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062605/5fd367cee21ad65fd001f612/html5/thumbnails/41.jpg)
Anecdote: My One Week as Editor of JASA
I was hired as editor of JASA.
I insisted that the journal be made freely available, online.
I was fired.
ASA sold the rights to the journal to Taylor and Francis.
JASA is still behind a paywall.
Compare this to JMLR (Journal of Machine Learning Research)jmlr.org. or NIPS (nips.cc) or ICML (imcl.cc) etc.
![Page 42: Data Science: The End of Statistics? · President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST) includes ... 0 statisticians! Chief Data Scientist of the United States](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062605/5fd367cee21ad65fd001f612/html5/thumbnails/42.jpg)
Anecdote: My One Week as Editor of JASA
I was hired as editor of JASA.
I insisted that the journal be made freely available, online.
I was fired.
ASA sold the rights to the journal to Taylor and Francis.
JASA is still behind a paywall.
Compare this to JMLR (Journal of Machine Learning Research)jmlr.org. or NIPS (nips.cc) or ICML (imcl.cc) etc.
![Page 43: Data Science: The End of Statistics? · President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST) includes ... 0 statisticians! Chief Data Scientist of the United States](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062605/5fd367cee21ad65fd001f612/html5/thumbnails/43.jpg)
Anecdote: My One Week as Editor of JASA
I was hired as editor of JASA.
I insisted that the journal be made freely available, online.
I was fired.
ASA sold the rights to the journal to Taylor and Francis.
JASA is still behind a paywall.
Compare this to JMLR (Journal of Machine Learning Research)jmlr.org. or NIPS (nips.cc) or ICML (imcl.cc) etc.
![Page 44: Data Science: The End of Statistics? · President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST) includes ... 0 statisticians! Chief Data Scientist of the United States](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062605/5fd367cee21ad65fd001f612/html5/thumbnails/44.jpg)
Anecdote: My One Week as Editor of JASA
I was hired as editor of JASA.
I insisted that the journal be made freely available, online.
I was fired.
ASA sold the rights to the journal to Taylor and Francis.
JASA is still behind a paywall.
Compare this to JMLR (Journal of Machine Learning Research)jmlr.org. or NIPS (nips.cc) or ICML (imcl.cc) etc.
![Page 45: Data Science: The End of Statistics? · President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST) includes ... 0 statisticians! Chief Data Scientist of the United States](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062605/5fd367cee21ad65fd001f612/html5/thumbnails/45.jpg)
Anecdote: My One Week as Editor of JASA
I was hired as editor of JASA.
I insisted that the journal be made freely available, online.
I was fired.
ASA sold the rights to the journal to Taylor and Francis.
JASA is still behind a paywall.
Compare this to JMLR (Journal of Machine Learning Research)jmlr.org. or NIPS (nips.cc) or ICML (imcl.cc) etc.
![Page 46: Data Science: The End of Statistics? · President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST) includes ... 0 statisticians! Chief Data Scientist of the United States](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062605/5fd367cee21ad65fd001f612/html5/thumbnails/46.jpg)
Anecdote: My One Week as Editor of JASA
I was hired as editor of JASA.
I insisted that the journal be made freely available, online.
I was fired.
ASA sold the rights to the journal to Taylor and Francis.
JASA is still behind a paywall.
Compare this to JMLR (Journal of Machine Learning Research)jmlr.org. or NIPS (nips.cc) or ICML (imcl.cc) etc.
![Page 47: Data Science: The End of Statistics? · President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST) includes ... 0 statisticians! Chief Data Scientist of the United States](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062605/5fd367cee21ad65fd001f612/html5/thumbnails/47.jpg)
What to Do?
• Change “Department of Statistics” to “Department of Statisticsand Data Science”
• Mostly, we need a cultural shift: training, conferences, topics.
![Page 48: Data Science: The End of Statistics? · President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST) includes ... 0 statisticians! Chief Data Scientist of the United States](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062605/5fd367cee21ad65fd001f612/html5/thumbnails/48.jpg)
What to Do?
• Change “Department of Statistics” to “Department of Statisticsand Data Science”
• Mostly, we need a cultural shift: training, conferences, topics.
![Page 49: Data Science: The End of Statistics? · President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST) includes ... 0 statisticians! Chief Data Scientist of the United States](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062605/5fd367cee21ad65fd001f612/html5/thumbnails/49.jpg)
What to Do?
• Change “Department of Statistics” to “Department of Statisticsand Data Science”
• Mostly, we need a cultural shift: training, conferences, topics.
![Page 50: Data Science: The End of Statistics? · President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST) includes ... 0 statisticians! Chief Data Scientist of the United States](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062605/5fd367cee21ad65fd001f612/html5/thumbnails/50.jpg)
Training
• Get rid of: MVUE, ancillarity, completeness, ...
• Get rid of assumptions: (more on this is in a minute)
• Add:VC dimensionsupport vector machinesonline learning, banditsdeep learningoptimizationcoding (not just R)cloud computingbasic software engineering (github etc)
![Page 51: Data Science: The End of Statistics? · President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST) includes ... 0 statisticians! Chief Data Scientist of the United States](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062605/5fd367cee21ad65fd001f612/html5/thumbnails/51.jpg)
Training
• Get rid of: MVUE, ancillarity, completeness, ...
• Get rid of assumptions: (more on this is in a minute)
• Add:VC dimensionsupport vector machinesonline learning, banditsdeep learningoptimizationcoding (not just R)cloud computingbasic software engineering (github etc)
![Page 52: Data Science: The End of Statistics? · President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST) includes ... 0 statisticians! Chief Data Scientist of the United States](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062605/5fd367cee21ad65fd001f612/html5/thumbnails/52.jpg)
Training
• Get rid of: MVUE, ancillarity, completeness, ...
• Get rid of assumptions: (more on this is in a minute)
• Add:VC dimensionsupport vector machinesonline learning, banditsdeep learningoptimizationcoding (not just R)cloud computingbasic software engineering (github etc)
![Page 53: Data Science: The End of Statistics? · President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST) includes ... 0 statisticians! Chief Data Scientist of the United States](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062605/5fd367cee21ad65fd001f612/html5/thumbnails/53.jpg)
Training
• Get rid of: MVUE, ancillarity, completeness, ...
• Get rid of assumptions: (more on this is in a minute)
• Add:VC dimensionsupport vector machinesonline learning, banditsdeep learningoptimizationcoding (not just R)cloud computingbasic software engineering (github etc)
![Page 54: Data Science: The End of Statistics? · President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST) includes ... 0 statisticians! Chief Data Scientist of the United States](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062605/5fd367cee21ad65fd001f612/html5/thumbnails/54.jpg)
Assumptions are For Suckers
• model-based, assumption-laden methods are useless in the worldof big, complex, datasets
• We need assumption-light methods with good visualization
• I propose we ban these things:
Y = Xβ + ε
Normality
sparsity (sparse methods not sparse models)
design assumptions (incoherence)
radical suggestion: let’s get rid of probability!
Jim Ramsay: “what good has probability ever done for statistics?”
Why should X1, . . . ,Xn be thought of as draws from somedistribution?
-online learning, individual sequence prediction, ...
![Page 55: Data Science: The End of Statistics? · President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST) includes ... 0 statisticians! Chief Data Scientist of the United States](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062605/5fd367cee21ad65fd001f612/html5/thumbnails/55.jpg)
Assumptions are For Suckers
• model-based, assumption-laden methods are useless in the worldof big, complex, datasets
• We need assumption-light methods with good visualization
• I propose we ban these things:
Y = Xβ + ε
Normality
sparsity (sparse methods not sparse models)
design assumptions (incoherence)
radical suggestion: let’s get rid of probability!
Jim Ramsay: “what good has probability ever done for statistics?”
Why should X1, . . . ,Xn be thought of as draws from somedistribution?
-online learning, individual sequence prediction, ...
![Page 56: Data Science: The End of Statistics? · President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST) includes ... 0 statisticians! Chief Data Scientist of the United States](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062605/5fd367cee21ad65fd001f612/html5/thumbnails/56.jpg)
Assumptions are For Suckers
• model-based, assumption-laden methods are useless in the worldof big, complex, datasets
• We need assumption-light methods with good visualization
• I propose we ban these things:
Y = Xβ + ε
Normality
sparsity (sparse methods not sparse models)
design assumptions (incoherence)
radical suggestion: let’s get rid of probability!
Jim Ramsay: “what good has probability ever done for statistics?”
Why should X1, . . . ,Xn be thought of as draws from somedistribution?
-online learning, individual sequence prediction, ...
![Page 57: Data Science: The End of Statistics? · President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST) includes ... 0 statisticians! Chief Data Scientist of the United States](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062605/5fd367cee21ad65fd001f612/html5/thumbnails/57.jpg)
Assumptions are For Suckers
• model-based, assumption-laden methods are useless in the worldof big, complex, datasets
• We need assumption-light methods with good visualization
• I propose we ban these things:
Y = Xβ + ε
Normality
sparsity (sparse methods not sparse models)
design assumptions (incoherence)
radical suggestion: let’s get rid of probability!
Jim Ramsay: “what good has probability ever done for statistics?”
Why should X1, . . . ,Xn be thought of as draws from somedistribution?
-online learning, individual sequence prediction, ...
![Page 58: Data Science: The End of Statistics? · President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST) includes ... 0 statisticians! Chief Data Scientist of the United States](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062605/5fd367cee21ad65fd001f612/html5/thumbnails/58.jpg)
Assumptions are For Suckers
• model-based, assumption-laden methods are useless in the worldof big, complex, datasets
• We need assumption-light methods with good visualization
• I propose we ban these things:
Y = Xβ + ε
Normality
sparsity (sparse methods not sparse models)
design assumptions (incoherence)
radical suggestion: let’s get rid of probability!
Jim Ramsay: “what good has probability ever done for statistics?”
Why should X1, . . . ,Xn be thought of as draws from somedistribution?
-online learning, individual sequence prediction, ...
![Page 59: Data Science: The End of Statistics? · President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST) includes ... 0 statisticians! Chief Data Scientist of the United States](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062605/5fd367cee21ad65fd001f612/html5/thumbnails/59.jpg)
Assumptions are For Suckers
• model-based, assumption-laden methods are useless in the worldof big, complex, datasets
• We need assumption-light methods with good visualization
• I propose we ban these things:
Y = Xβ + ε
Normality
sparsity (sparse methods not sparse models)
design assumptions (incoherence)
radical suggestion: let’s get rid of probability!
Jim Ramsay: “what good has probability ever done for statistics?”
Why should X1, . . . ,Xn be thought of as draws from somedistribution?
-online learning, individual sequence prediction, ...
![Page 60: Data Science: The End of Statistics? · President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST) includes ... 0 statisticians! Chief Data Scientist of the United States](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062605/5fd367cee21ad65fd001f612/html5/thumbnails/60.jpg)
Assumptions are For Suckers
• model-based, assumption-laden methods are useless in the worldof big, complex, datasets
• We need assumption-light methods with good visualization
• I propose we ban these things:
Y = Xβ + ε
Normality
sparsity (sparse methods not sparse models)
design assumptions (incoherence)
radical suggestion: let’s get rid of probability!
Jim Ramsay: “what good has probability ever done for statistics?”
Why should X1, . . . ,Xn be thought of as draws from somedistribution?
-online learning, individual sequence prediction, ...
![Page 61: Data Science: The End of Statistics? · President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST) includes ... 0 statisticians! Chief Data Scientist of the United States](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062605/5fd367cee21ad65fd001f612/html5/thumbnails/61.jpg)
Assumptions are For Suckers
• model-based, assumption-laden methods are useless in the worldof big, complex, datasets
• We need assumption-light methods with good visualization
• I propose we ban these things:
Y = Xβ + ε
Normality
sparsity (sparse methods not sparse models)
design assumptions (incoherence)
radical suggestion: let’s get rid of probability!
Jim Ramsay: “what good has probability ever done for statistics?”
Why should X1, . . . ,Xn be thought of as draws from somedistribution?
-online learning, individual sequence prediction, ...
![Page 62: Data Science: The End of Statistics? · President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST) includes ... 0 statisticians! Chief Data Scientist of the United States](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062605/5fd367cee21ad65fd001f612/html5/thumbnails/62.jpg)
Assumptions are For Suckers
• model-based, assumption-laden methods are useless in the worldof big, complex, datasets
• We need assumption-light methods with good visualization
• I propose we ban these things:
Y = Xβ + ε
Normality
sparsity (sparse methods not sparse models)
design assumptions (incoherence)
radical suggestion: let’s get rid of probability!
Jim Ramsay: “what good has probability ever done for statistics?”
Why should X1, . . . ,Xn be thought of as draws from somedistribution?
-online learning, individual sequence prediction, ...
![Page 63: Data Science: The End of Statistics? · President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST) includes ... 0 statisticians! Chief Data Scientist of the United States](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062605/5fd367cee21ad65fd001f612/html5/thumbnails/63.jpg)
Assumptions are For Suckers
• model-based, assumption-laden methods are useless in the worldof big, complex, datasets
• We need assumption-light methods with good visualization
• I propose we ban these things:
Y = Xβ + ε
Normality
sparsity (sparse methods not sparse models)
design assumptions (incoherence)
radical suggestion: let’s get rid of probability!
Jim Ramsay: “what good has probability ever done for statistics?”
Why should X1, . . . ,Xn be thought of as draws from somedistribution?
-online learning, individual sequence prediction, ...
![Page 64: Data Science: The End of Statistics? · President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST) includes ... 0 statisticians! Chief Data Scientist of the United States](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062605/5fd367cee21ad65fd001f612/html5/thumbnails/64.jpg)
Assumptions are For Suckers
• model-based, assumption-laden methods are useless in the worldof big, complex, datasets
• We need assumption-light methods with good visualization
• I propose we ban these things:
Y = Xβ + ε
Normality
sparsity (sparse methods not sparse models)
design assumptions (incoherence)
radical suggestion: let’s get rid of probability!
Jim Ramsay: “what good has probability ever done for statistics?”
Why should X1, . . . ,Xn be thought of as draws from somedistribution?
-online learning, individual sequence prediction, ...
![Page 65: Data Science: The End of Statistics? · President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST) includes ... 0 statisticians! Chief Data Scientist of the United States](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062605/5fd367cee21ad65fd001f612/html5/thumbnails/65.jpg)
Assumptions are For Suckers
• model-based, assumption-laden methods are useless in the worldof big, complex, datasets
• We need assumption-light methods with good visualization
• I propose we ban these things:
Y = Xβ + ε
Normality
sparsity (sparse methods not sparse models)
design assumptions (incoherence)
radical suggestion: let’s get rid of probability!
Jim Ramsay: “what good has probability ever done for statistics?”
Why should X1, . . . ,Xn be thought of as draws from somedistribution?
-online learning, individual sequence prediction, ...
![Page 66: Data Science: The End of Statistics? · President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST) includes ... 0 statisticians! Chief Data Scientist of the United States](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062605/5fd367cee21ad65fd001f612/html5/thumbnails/66.jpg)
Conference Culture
• conference model: refereed conferences: NIPS, ICML, AISTATS,etc• leads to energetic, fast, continuous progress• Every student should be regularly submitting papers to NIPS,AISTATS, ICML, ...• The Interface:-Let’s make the interface the epicenter of statistics. Make it likeNIPS.
![Page 67: Data Science: The End of Statistics? · President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST) includes ... 0 statisticians! Chief Data Scientist of the United States](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062605/5fd367cee21ad65fd001f612/html5/thumbnails/67.jpg)
Conference Culture
• conference model: refereed conferences: NIPS, ICML, AISTATS,etc
• leads to energetic, fast, continuous progress• Every student should be regularly submitting papers to NIPS,AISTATS, ICML, ...• The Interface:-Let’s make the interface the epicenter of statistics. Make it likeNIPS.
![Page 68: Data Science: The End of Statistics? · President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST) includes ... 0 statisticians! Chief Data Scientist of the United States](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062605/5fd367cee21ad65fd001f612/html5/thumbnails/68.jpg)
Conference Culture
• conference model: refereed conferences: NIPS, ICML, AISTATS,etc• leads to energetic, fast, continuous progress
• Every student should be regularly submitting papers to NIPS,AISTATS, ICML, ...• The Interface:-Let’s make the interface the epicenter of statistics. Make it likeNIPS.
![Page 69: Data Science: The End of Statistics? · President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST) includes ... 0 statisticians! Chief Data Scientist of the United States](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062605/5fd367cee21ad65fd001f612/html5/thumbnails/69.jpg)
Conference Culture
• conference model: refereed conferences: NIPS, ICML, AISTATS,etc• leads to energetic, fast, continuous progress• Every student should be regularly submitting papers to NIPS,AISTATS, ICML, ...
• The Interface:-Let’s make the interface the epicenter of statistics. Make it likeNIPS.
![Page 70: Data Science: The End of Statistics? · President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST) includes ... 0 statisticians! Chief Data Scientist of the United States](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062605/5fd367cee21ad65fd001f612/html5/thumbnails/70.jpg)
Conference Culture
• conference model: refereed conferences: NIPS, ICML, AISTATS,etc• leads to energetic, fast, continuous progress• Every student should be regularly submitting papers to NIPS,AISTATS, ICML, ...• The Interface:
-Let’s make the interface the epicenter of statistics. Make it likeNIPS.
![Page 71: Data Science: The End of Statistics? · President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST) includes ... 0 statisticians! Chief Data Scientist of the United States](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062605/5fd367cee21ad65fd001f612/html5/thumbnails/71.jpg)
Conference Culture
• conference model: refereed conferences: NIPS, ICML, AISTATS,etc• leads to energetic, fast, continuous progress• Every student should be regularly submitting papers to NIPS,AISTATS, ICML, ...• The Interface:-Let’s make the interface the epicenter of statistics. Make it likeNIPS.
![Page 72: Data Science: The End of Statistics? · President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST) includes ... 0 statisticians! Chief Data Scientist of the United States](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062605/5fd367cee21ad65fd001f612/html5/thumbnails/72.jpg)
Conclusion
• Statisticans are the original Data Scientists.
• Let’s embrace some of the CS culture. (If you can’t beat them,join them).
THE END
![Page 73: Data Science: The End of Statistics? · President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST) includes ... 0 statisticians! Chief Data Scientist of the United States](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062605/5fd367cee21ad65fd001f612/html5/thumbnails/73.jpg)
Conclusion
• Statisticans are the original Data Scientists.
• Let’s embrace some of the CS culture. (If you can’t beat them,join them).
THE END
![Page 74: Data Science: The End of Statistics? · President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST) includes ... 0 statisticians! Chief Data Scientist of the United States](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062605/5fd367cee21ad65fd001f612/html5/thumbnails/74.jpg)
Conclusion
• Statisticans are the original Data Scientists.
• Let’s embrace some of the CS culture. (If you can’t beat them,join them).
THE END
![Page 75: Data Science: The End of Statistics? · President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST) includes ... 0 statisticians! Chief Data Scientist of the United States](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062605/5fd367cee21ad65fd001f612/html5/thumbnails/75.jpg)
Conclusion
• Statisticans are the original Data Scientists.
• Let’s embrace some of the CS culture. (If you can’t beat them,join them).
THE END