Data from a Candidate Calculator Ravi Iyer University of Southern California Suzanne Soule &...
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Transcript of Data from a Candidate Calculator Ravi Iyer University of Southern California Suzanne Soule &...
Data from a Candidate Calculator
Ravi IyerUniversity of Southern California
Suzanne Soule & Jennifer Nairne Center for Civic Education
Doug StenstromUniversity of Southern California
What I hope to do....
Introduce VoteHelp and the idea of candidate calculators
Cluster analysis to move beyond liberal/conservative analysis
Moral Foundation Questionnaire results based on clusters identified
Ask for your help in future research
What is a Candidate Calculator?
Allows voters to match their opinions to the positions of politicians on an issue by issue basis
Allows voters to weight the importance of each issue
Importance is relative to a relatively comprehensive set of issues
Produces a ranked list of politicians Allows users to see how the rankings were
generated
VoteHelp.Org
VoteHelp.Org results page
VoteHelp Traffic
Referring Sites
Referring Sites
Cluster Analysis
“Each person's more-or-less idiosyncratic perspective cannot be captured by assuming that all people use the same dimensions” (Fleishman 1986).
Knoke – Dimensions of political attitudes – economic issues, social issues, & racial issues (1979)
Previous Cluster Analyses? Likely to be outdated by the time they are
published using older issues
Fleishman (1986)
ANES 1980 data - ~400-500 people 6 groups – liberals, quasi-liberals (less minority aid),
conservatives, advocates of limited government, those with pro-labor attitudes (and anti-civil rights), those who are middle of the road in attitudes toward government economic programs.
12 issues: civil rights, defense spending, government services, inflation vs. unemployment, abortion, aid to minority groups, relations with the Soviets, women's place in society, guaranteed jobs, the Equal Rights Amendment, busing, and nuclear power.
4 Clusters
2 Liberal Groups
Group 1 – Top issues by issue importance
Iraq - Decision
Universal Health Care
Abortion
Gay Marriage
Stem Cell Research
Group 2 – Top issues by Issue Importance
Universal Health Care
Environment Regulation
Global Warming
Iraq - Withdrawal
Education Funding
2 Conservative Groups
Group 1 – Top issues by Issue Importance
Immigration Enforcement
Gun Ownership
Aggressive Foreign Policy
Government Spending
Immigration Amnesty
Group 2 – Top issues by Issue Importance
Abortion
Gay Marriage
Iraq - Decision
Drug Policy
Stem Cell Research
Beyond Liberal and Conservative
Social issue liberals Environment and
education liberals
Law and order conservatives
Social issue conservatives
Harper's Bazaar Roundtable
Baker - The Republican Party is now three factions having an argument: the social-issues faction, the security faction, and the big-money libertarian faction.”
McConnell - “real libertarians are pretty rare”
What can you do with this?
Issue based coalitions – i.e. Social conservatives want increased educational funding (M=5.4, 7th most important issue) and agree on environmental issues (M=4.7-4.9), but do not place as much importance on it (21st and 23rd out of 28 issues).
Areas where 1 group drives policy – i.e. Drug policy is only important to social conservatives.
Issue analysis - Iraq withdrawal pits law and order conservatives against both liberal groups with social conservatives apathetic.
Moral Foundation Theory
Haidt & Graham 2007 Harm Fairness Ingroup Loyalty Authority Purity Linked study at yourmorals.org - N=184
Conservatives vs. Liberals
MFQ Results by Cluster
R e p o rt
3 .5 9 7 0 3 .3 1 3 7 2 .8 3 5 4 2 .9 3 6 7 2 .7 2 9 4
4 6 4 6 4 6 4 6 4 6
.8 9 6 0 6 .6 2 4 7 5 1 .0 5 0 9 3 .9 5 7 2 2 1 .3 3 4 8 3
3 .8 6 3 6 3 .8 0 8 4 2 .1 5 1 8 2 .2 8 3 7 1 .7 0 7 8
4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
.6 0 5 1 0 .5 2 1 0 7 .8 5 5 5 7 .8 1 0 5 2 .9 4 8 2 5
4 .0 3 3 6 3 .8 5 6 6 2 .1 3 8 7 2 .2 3 0 0 1 .9 8 4 2
3 4 3 4 3 4 3 4 3 4
.4 5 5 7 7 .5 7 8 2 8 .7 5 0 8 9 .7 2 2 2 6 .7 8 1 9 9
3 .4 2 0 5 3 .4 0 9 1 2 .8 2 9 5 3 .0 7 6 7 2 .8 3 2 4
4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
.7 9 1 5 3 .6 1 0 2 1 .8 1 1 9 3 .8 3 0 5 6 .9 7 4 9 6
3 .2 8 7 9 2 .8 9 8 4 2 .7 9 6 9 3 .2 1 8 8 3 .7 1 8 8
1 6 1 6 1 6 1 6 1 6
.8 3 1 9 2 .7 9 2 1 7 .8 2 1 4 3 .7 0 7 8 4 .9 3 7 0 8
3 .6 7 2 4 3 .5 1 9 0 2 .5 3 8 4 2 .7 0 8 0 2 .4 5 8 1
1 8 4 1 8 4 1 8 4 1 8 4 1 8 4
.7 6 6 5 0 .6 6 8 9 6 .9 3 2 4 7 .9 1 1 7 5 1 .1 9 2 9 9
Me a n
N
Std . D e via tio n
Me a n
N
Std . D e via tio n
Me a n
N
Std . D e via tio n
Me a n
N
Std . D e via tio n
Me a n
N
Std . D e via tio n
Me a n
N
Std . D e via tio n
ym _ clu s te r3.0 0
1 .0 0
2 .0 0
3 .0 0
4 .0 0
To ta l
MFQ_ H AR M_AVG
MFQ_FAIR N ESS_
AVG
MFQ_IN GR OU P_
AVG
MFQ_AU TH OR ITY_
AVGMFQ_
PU R ITY_ AVG
MFQ Results
Replicated Haidt & Graham findings using issue positions rather than self identification as liberal/conservative
Found that social conservatives score higher on purity foundation
Found that law and order conservatives score higher on fairness foundation
Summary
Importance questions are important... .... especially in context of comprehensive set of
issues. Cluster analysis can be leveraged into future
work to get beyond liberal/conservative splits. Combining cluster results with linked studies
can help other theories get beyond liberal and conservative distinctions too.
Future Directions (I need your help!)
Data analysis (more clusters, specific issues)
Linked studies
Candidate calculators in other countries
Candidate calculators for local elections
www.polipsych.com - Paper, presentation and spreadsheet of issue importance and position means by cluster.
www.yourmorals.org - more on the moral foundations questionnaire
www.votehelp.org