Data-Driven Strategic Enrollment Management Committees... · the sources of data available to...
Transcript of Data-Driven Strategic Enrollment Management Committees... · the sources of data available to...
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Data-Driven StrategicEnrollment Management
Session 1: Enrollment Management Research 101
Kathy Kurz, Vice PresidentScannell & Kurz, Inc.
June 12, 2007www.scannellkurz.com
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Agenda
IntroductionStrategic Planning Model –where/how does enrollment management research fit in?Conclusion
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Goal of the Session
To provide an understanding of the sources of data available to understand and manage enrollments.
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What is Enrollment Management?
Enrollment management is a process, one that brings together often disparate functions having to do with recruiting, funding, tracking, retaining, and replacing students as they move toward, within, and away from our institutions.
(Source: Boston College, Bridge Magazine, Fall 1976)
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What is Strategic Enrollment Management?
It begins with an understanding of external and internal trends, in order to anticipate and respond to changes in a manner that will create a sustainable market advantage.
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Why is Research Important to Strategic Enrollment Management?
Keeps us focused on meeting institutional mission and goalsProvides information to most effectively deploy limited resourcesEducates us on who to recruit and howEmpowers us to maintain a steady financial futurePrepares us to respond to changing market conditions and student retention challenges
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Environment
Forecast
Problems &Constraints
Goals ProgramPlanning
Facilities&
Funding
Planning
Implementation
Strategic Planning Model
Organization&
Staffing
CurrentPosition
Evaluation
Source: Frank B. Campanella, Professor of Finance, Boston College
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Strategic Planning Model -Environment
Areas of Interest to Enrollment Managers
CompetitionGovernmentEconomyDemography (customer base)
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Competition
You need to know national trends in higher education pricing, financial aid, etc.
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College Board – “Trends in …”Reports
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Trends in Student Aid, 2006
4-Yr Public2-Yr Public Private Nonprofit Institutions
Source: The College Board
For-Profit Institutions
32.4%
38.9%
38.5%
42.8%
38.6%
33.6%
42.9%
36.6%
34.7%
46.7%
16.3%
17.2%
19.2%
15.9%
17.7%
8.6%
6.6%
5.7%
1%
6.1%
Parent Loans (PLUS)
Unsubsidized Stafford
Subsidized Stafford
Campus-Based
Pell Grants
Federal Aid Funds by Type of Institution, 2004-05
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Average Tuition DiscountPercentages for Full-Time Freshmen(10-Yr Participants)
**Full-time freshman enrollment greater than or equal to 850
Source: NACUBO Institutional Aid Survey Executive Summary – 2005 – Preliminary Results
*LT < $25,000 HT ≥ $25,000
Institutional Type
Number of Respondents
Fall 1996
Fall 2001
Fall 2003
Fall 2004
Fall 2005
Small Colleges, 130 36.8% 40.9% 42.3% 42.3% 42.7%Lower Tuition*
Small Colleges, 60 36.2% 37.3% 37.8% 37.1% 38.1%Higher Tuition*
Large Colleges & Universities ** 43 28.6% 29.5% 31.5% 31.1% 31.5%
All Institutions 233 35.1% 37.9% 39.2% 38.9% 39.5%
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Competition
Even more important, you need to follow your competitors’ trends.First, how do you identify your competitors?
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Sample Competition by Overlap Test Takers
2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 18000 20000
+418+203
-7-227+203+78
+164+371+217+50
-135
SAT TAKERS Change since 2005
Source: The College Board: Enrollment Planning Service, Executive Summary
Competitor Volume OvlpYour Univ. 21640
1 A. Univ. 50640 97442 B. Univ. 34708 92023 C. Univ. 18045 52244 D. Univ. 19849 41445 E. Univ. 16291 39256 F. Univ. 12797 32087 G. Univ. 14596 24548 H. Univ. 15324 22399 I. Univ. 9937 2134
10 J. Univ. 8209 2054
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www.scannellkurz.com 15Source: ACT
ACT Enrollment Information Service – Class Profile
Number of ACT Score Reports Sent to Your Institution & to Competing Institutions
Institution Name City ST
Total Score Rpts
Choice 1
X University AB 7068 1747
M State University AB 2883 1081W State University AB 2136 574Central University AB 2085 551O University AB 2000 500Western University AB 1568 277
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Source: The College Board
Admitted Student Questionnaire Sample Results
# of Cross Apps
# of Cross Admits
Our College
Listed College
A. Univ. 283 194 32 36B. Univ. 275 179 36 47C. Univ. 274 198 26 40D. Univ. 210 56 3 18E. Univ. 206 34 1 30F. Univ. 196 69 3 38G. Univ. 166 150 18 44
# of Cross Admits Enrolled by:
Overlap with Other Colleges
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National Student Clearinghouse –StudentTracker
Identify the competition for:Accepted students who declined your offerEnrolled students who transferred elsewhere
Source: www.studentclearinghouse.org
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Competition
Second, how does your institution measure up to your competition in:
Accept/Yield ratesSAT/ACT scoresTuition and feesInstitutional grant aidEndowment per studentRetention/Graduation rates
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Institution Name TuitionAccept Rate
Yield Rate
Grad Rate
Middle 50% ACT
Endowment Per Student
SAMPLE COLLEGE $20,810 63% 23% 70% 23-29 $76,368PEER 1 $14,642 88% 39% 68% 22-28 $47,287PEER 2 $30,400 39% 29% 82% 29-33 $330,281PEER 3 $30,350 45% 20% 73% 29-33 $51,038PEER 4 $19,490 82% 31% 69% 23-30 $64,882PEER 5 $31,420 22% 43% 94% 29-33 $209,864PEER 6 $18,699 41% 33% 73% 24-28 $11,029PEER 7 $30,110 47% 38% 86% N/A $112,532PEER 8 $25,888 58% 33% 84% 25-30 $69,734PEER 9 $26,175 31% 40% 83% 25-30 $121,924PEER 10 $26,874 67% 31% 79% 25-29 $142,667PEER 11 $30,920 35% 39% 86% 28-33 $179,211
National Center Education Statistics http://nces.ed.gov/ipedspas/
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50%
25%
96%
75%
Federal grants State/Localgrants
Institutionalgrants
Loans
To Calculate Your Competitors’Discount Rates
Discount Rate = % of students receiving aid X average institutional grant / costs
2004-2005 Academic Year
Source: IPEDS – COOL http://nces.ed.gov/ipeds/cool/
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$3,775$2,400
$5,500
$8,995
Federal grants State/Localgrants
Institutionalgrants
Loans
To Calculate Your Competitors’Discount Rates
Discount Rate = % of students receiving aid X average institutional grant / costs
2004-2005 Academic Year
Source: IPEDS – COOL http://nces.ed.gov/ipeds/cool/
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2006-07 2005-06 2004-05$23,000 $22,000 $20,000
$500 $500 $450
Estimated Student Expenses
Detailed expensesTutition and feesBooks and supplies
Undergraduate academic year prices
To Calculate Your Competitors’Discount Rates
Discount Rate = % of students receiving aid X average institutional grant / costs
Result:
Discount Rate = .96 X $8,995 / $20,000
Discount Rate = 43.2%
Source: IPEDS – COOL http://nces.ed.gov/ipeds/cool/
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Institution NameTuition & fees
(2004-05)% aid applicants
(2004-05)Pell grant avg
(2004-05)
FT Freshman retention rate
(2004-05)6 yr Grad rate
(2004-05)
Sample College $20,073 88 $2,488 87 69
Peer 1 $30,720 44 $2,683 97 93
Peer 2 $17,555 46 $2,415 88 76
Peer 3 $29,322 46 $2,637 95 86
Peer 4 $24,408 64 $2,471 92 84
Peer 5 $19,518 67 $2,672 82 71
Peer 6 $24,274 55 $2,854 89 80
Peer 7 $13,944 54 $2,470 84 69
Peer 8 $25,580 48 $2,561 88 82
Peer 9 $31,210 51 $2,337 88 73
Peer 10 $29,990 48 $2,640 95 88
Peer 11 $28,310 39 $2,569 95 88
Source: www.economicdiversity.org
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Sample Benchmark Table
A. Univ. $12,970 12% 88% 810 – 1040 Comp Coll–Bach's (N)B. Univ. $19,236 29% 67% 1020 – 1210 Universities–Master's (N)C. Univ. $19,720 37% 70% 1000 – 1210 National Univ, 3rd tierYour School $20,260 20% 65% 790 – 1050 Univ–Master's (N), 4th tierD. Univ. $23,130 28% 67% 1050 – 1230 National Univ, 3rd tierE. Univ. $23,144 41% 67% 910 – 1150 Universities–Master's (N)
College/UniversityTuition &
Fees 2006-07
Discount Rate
2004-05
Accept Rate
2005-06
Middle 50% SAT
2005-06
US News Ranking - 2006 (America's Best Colleges)
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Government
Federal PoliciesChanges in federal financial aid programs (e.g., Academic Competitiveness Grant, SMART, etc.)Reauthorization of the Higher Education Act (HEA)
State PoliciesState financial aid programsPolicies of neighboring states
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Economy
Projected changes in Median Household IncomeUnemployment LevelsLabor Market Trends by Sector
All available by geographic region
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US Census Bureau
2003-04 2004-05Median Income
Median Income
United States $45,893 $46,071Alabama $38,695 $37,502Alaska $55,957 $56,398
State
Source: www.census.gov
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Type of College Attended Varies by Income Level
Public 4-YrPublic 2-Yr Private 4-Yr
Source: College Board, Trends in Higher Education Series 2005
Institutional Choice by Income Level, 1999-2000
40%
35%
32%
21%
33%
39%
40%
43%
41%
41%
21%
25%
25%
38%
27%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
< $30,000
$30 - $59,999
$60 - $89,999
$90,000 +
All
Percentage Enrolled
Fam
ily I
nco
me
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Bureau of Labor Statisticswww.bls.gov
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Postsecondary Education Opportunitywww.postsecondary.org
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Demography
Characteristics of your customer baseGenderEthnicitySocioeconomicGeographicAcademic QualityNumber of Area High School Graduates. . . and other characteristics important to the mission of the school
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Source: www.collegeboard.com
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WICHE – Knocking at the College Door, December 2003
Race/ Ethnicity Total
Amer In./ AK Native
Asian/ Pacific Islander
Black, non-Hispanic Hispanic
White, non-Hispanic
Public Total
Non-Public Total
Public & NonPublic Total
2006-07 152155 535 12164 22267 18284 98904 152503 25004 1775082008-09 153500 584 13091 22485 19571 97769 154323 25341 1796642010-11 148334 726 13802 21493 19538 92774 149287 24757 1740442012-13 141614 675 14703 19212 19099 87925 141506 23847 1653532014-15 137264 618 18406 19726 17637 80877 135010 22453 1574632016-17 135725 715 17921 17984 18435 80669 134004 22305 156309
Public by Race/Ethnicity
NY Public and Nonpublic High School Graduates (Projected)
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WICHE – Knocking at the College Door, December 2003
Total Graduates
# % # % # % # %2006-07 26468 17.06% 44741 28.84% 53613 34.55% 30339 19.55% 1551612007-08 26867 16.94% 45591 28.75% 54947 34.65% 31169 19.66% 1585742008-09 26777 17.04% 45173 28.75% 54296 34.55% 30905 19.67% 1571512009-10 26128 16.89% 44232 28.60% 53514 34.60% 30788 19.91% 1546622010-11 25626 16.81% 43399 28.46% 52836 34.64% 30614 20.08% 1524752011-12 24951 16.70% 42377 28.36% 51808 34.68% 30266 20.26% 1494022012-13 23885 16.48% 40749 28.11% 50391 34.76% 29932 20.65% 144957
Median Family Income Category
$0-$20000$20001- $50000
$50001- $100000 $100001+
NY Public High School Graduates By Median Family Income
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Source: www.higheredinfo.org
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Environment in Summary
There is plenty of data. The keys to transforming data into knowledge are:
Identifying the right indicators for your institutionProperly organizing and summarizing themDistributing them to decision makers
Environment
Forecast
Problems &Constraints
Goals ProgramPlanning
Facilities&
Funding
Planning
Implementation
Strategic Planning Model
Organization&
Staffing
CurrentPosition
Evaluation
Source: Frank B. Campanella, Professor of Finance, Boston College
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Strategic Planning Model –Current Position
Areas of Interest to Enrollment Managers
Trends in inquiries, applicants, admits, and enrollees by subpopulationStudent attitudes and interestsTrends in quality profile, financial aid expenditures, diversity, and other class attributesCohort retention trends by subpopulation
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Trends in Inquiries, Applicants, Admits, and Enrollees by Subpopulation
Student system dataHistorical yield rates (e.g., app rate, admit rate, enroll rate) by various student characteristics/subpopulations
Admitted Student Questionnaire (ASQ)Market research (internal)
Surveys of prospective students
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Student Attitudes and Interests
Cooperative Institutional Research Program (CIRP) – Freshman SurveyNational Survey of Student Engagement (NSSE)Student Satisfaction Inventory (SSI)Focus Groups
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Trends in Quality Profile, Financial Aid Expenditures, Diversity, and Other Class Attributes
Student System DataSAT/ACTRank/HS GPADiscount ratesEthnic/geographic/socio-economic diversity
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Cohort Retention Trends by Subpopulation
Student System DataSophomore retention rates of new students (i.e., first-time at your college) by student characteristics
Your First College Year (YFCY) Survey from the Higher Education Research Institute (HERI)
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Challenges with Internal Data
Data not captured or not keptOld legacy system – difficult to extract dataLack of executive interest or understanding of the importance of dataNo system “power user” in the enrollment management unitFiles from prior years were erasedData integrityLow response rates on surveyFiles not merged
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Data Not Captured in System
Solution:Know specifically the data you want to capture from which sourcesBegin discussion on campus with appropriate people to collect specific data routinely
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Old Legacy System – Difficult to Extract Data
Solution:Upgrade your systemFind someone on campus who has expertise to extract dataCreate a data warehouse
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Lack of Executive Interest or Understanding of the Importance of Data
Solution:Need to make the case for data-driven decision making and resource allocation to the senior teamConduct a cost-benefit analysis exercise to display the power of data
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No System “Power User” in the Enrollment Management Unit
Solution:Provide training for staff member(s) to become a power userMay need to make use of available resources in other departments like IT, Math/Statistics, or Psychology
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Files from Prior Years Were Erased
Solution:Find out if any “point in time” files (a.k.a., census files) are retrievable from other officesOtherwise, set up a database to gather this data on an annual basis going forward
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Data Integrity
Solution:Beware of making biased assumptions!May need to wait until the next cycle to get good dataCorrect prior mistakes and create protocols to ensure proper and accurate data entry
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Low Response Rates on Surveys
Solution:Proceed with caution when drawing conclusionsConsider improving the survey instrument and research methodologyExperiment with different data collection methods (e.g., phone interview vs. mail vs. Web surveys)Outsource to a data collection agency
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Files Not Merged
Solution:Bring together Admissions, Financial Aid, Registration and Records, and IT to develop a plan for merging each others’dataOnce these files are merged, a whole new world of data analysis is possible!
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Data Analysis Continuum
No DataStrategic UseOf Data
Historical DataCaptured &Retained ButFiles Not Merged
Data FilesMerged ButStrategic QuestionsNot Asked
AggregateData Analysis Segmented
Data Analysis
(group data)
RegressionAnalysis
(individual data)
Modeling& Simulations
Environment
Forecast
Problems &Constraints
Goals ProgramPlanning
Facilities&
Funding
Planning
Implementation
Strategic Planning Model
Organization&
Staffing
CurrentPosition
Evaluation
Source: Frank B. Campanella, Professor of Finance, Boston College
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Problems/Constraints and Goals
Must be quantitative and based on environmental and internal trends.
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Problems/Constraints and Goals –Example
Problem: You are a Private college in the southeast with a 71% in-state enrollment. You would like to increase your out-of-state enrollment. But, contiguous states have expanded scholarship programs for their residents.
What data do you need to gather and analyze?
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Problems/Constraints and Goals –Internal Data
Inqs AppsApply
% Inqs AppsApply
% Inqs AppsApply
%In-State 11,459 630 5.5% 12,263 667 5.4% 12,545 725 5.8%Contiguous States 13,593 403 3.0% 12,458 350 2.8% 11,956 266 2.2%Other Southeast 5,455 123 2.3% 5,426 110 2.0% 5,562 119 2.1%Northeast 1,823 24 1.3% 1,766 15 0.8% 1,849 22 1.2%Midwest 2,016 16 0.8% 2,233 19 0.9% 2,154 12 0.6%Other US 2,562 9 0.4% 2,548 11 0.4% 2,575 10 0.4%
2003 2004 2005
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Problems/Constraints and Goals – Goal
Return inquiries and conversion rates from contiguous states to high water mark level.
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Environment
Forecast
Problems &Constraints
Goals ProgramPlanning
Facilities&
Funding
Planning
Implementation
Strategic Planning Model
Organization&
Staffing
CurrentPosition
Evaluation
Source: Frank B. Campanella, Professor of Finance, Boston College
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Program Planning – Example
Profile applicants from contiguous states whom you have lost:
% receiving institutional aid:Average institutional award:Quality profile (avg. SAT) :Majors: Business
Performing Arts
2003 vs. 200575% 91%
$5,000 $5,8001090 1000300 200103 66
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Program Planning – ExampleAnalyze Yield Rates for Applicants from Contiguous
States by SubpopulationNeed> $10k 15/30 (50%) 20/30 (67%)$5k-10k 5/30 (17%) 15/30 (50%) 10/30 (33%)$1-5k 2/30 ( 7%) 2/30 (7%) 10/30 (33 %)No Aid App 0/26 (0%)
No Grant $1 - $2k $2k-$4k $4k-$6k >$6k
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Program Planning – Example
Guarantee a $5,000 grant to all applicants from contiguous states.
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Environment
Forecast
Problems &Constraints
Goals ProgramPlanning
Facilities&
Funding
Planning
Implementation
Strategic Planning Model
Organization&
Staffing
CurrentPosition
Evaluation
Source: Frank B. Campanella, Professor of Finance, Boston College
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Conclusion
Through effective use of data, enrollment managers can:
Anticipate environmental changes that could impact enrollment outcomes or that could give the institution a competitive advantageIdentify reasons for negative (or positive) trends in enrollment outcomesDevelop targeted intervention strategies to address the trendsEstimate the likely cost/benefits of those initiativesEvaluate the impact of new initiatives and adapt as needed
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Conclusion
The data are available to guide strategic enrollment management efforts – get started by:
Familiarizing yourself with those sources, both external and internalMaking sure admissions, financial aid, and registration’s data are merged for analysesCarving out resources for an enrollment management research position – or grow your own
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Conclusion
The remaining Web conferences in this series will focus in detail on data-driven Enrollment Management in:
Admissions (Session II)Financial Aid (Session III)Retention (Session IV)
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Pittsford, NY 14534
585.381.1120 (p)
585.381.2383 (f)
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