Data Driven SafetyData Driven Safety

X-15 SimulatorX-15 Simulator

X-15 Simulator UseX-15 Simulator Use

• Time honored criteria to predict aircraft behavior failed to uncover serious threats

• Pilot controlled flight-simulation device developed to aid research

• Researchers could now simulate and analyze hazardous conditions at a lower risk

• Unknown hazards of controlling X-15 flight explored before flight – 10 hours simulation for 1 hour of flight

• The application of X-15 simulation techniques to other aerospace applications was an unforeseen data-information-knowledge safety benefit of that program

Flight Data RecordersFlight Data Recorders

Commercial Aviation Safety Analysis Commercial Aviation Safety Analysis Of DataOf Data

• Evolved from research programs in the 1950’s• Metal strip scribed with basic parameters

– Heading / Time / Airspeed / Altitude

• In 1958 the Civil Aeronautics Administration mandated use in commercial aircraft

• By 1980’s second generation digital recorders were mandated which captured 11 parameters for up to 25 hours of recording time– Pitch / Roll / Vert & Long Accels / Thrust / Controls /

Radio transmission

The 1960’s Marked the Beginning of The 1960’s Marked the Beginning of Significant Improvements in Aviation SafetySignificant Improvements in Aviation Safety

05/16/2002 FT-004Wc

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25

30

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1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Hull loss accidentsper year*

Hull loss accident rate*[Accidents per million departures]

Departures, Millions*

Reductions possible with continued Industry effort

*Accident and Departure data through 31 December 2001

Data Collection & Analysis Data Collection & Analysis

• Digital Flight Data Recorders– DFDR (Black Box)

– Modern equipment has several hundred recorded discrete parameters

• Post accident investigations able to more accurately identify cause – Challenged to maintain hazard identification focus

versus establishing blame

• Aviation safety recorded remarkably improved

Flight Operations Quality AssuranceFlight Operations Quality Assurance

• Systematic analysis of routine data

• Thousands of hours of recorded data reduced to distribution graphs

• Safety departments can focus on most critical information that exceeds some predetermined value

Digital Flight Data RecorderDigital Flight Data Recorder

Routine Download and AnalysisRoutine Download and AnalysisData – Information - KnowledgeData – Information - Knowledge

• European community has employed this for over 30 years

• U.S. just now implementing– Litigious society turns safety information into a liability– Non-punitive policy is imperative to success– Objective is to identify trends – not individuals

• Cooperative efforts of 3 main parties necessary– Industry / Company– Regulators– Labor

• Positive results already realized

Computer Technology Enhances Safety

• Digital Flight Data Acquisition Units – DFDAU– Thousands of information sources can report to a

central recording unit

• Quick Access Recorders – QAR– Ease of access to data stream

• Purpose of Program is to:– Detect latent patterns of behavior in human

performance – Weaknesses in the aviation system supporting

infrastructure– Anomalies in aircraft performance

New Focus on the HazardNew Focus on the Hazard

• Thousands of hours of data reduced to distribution charts (Information)

• Adverse systemic trends now addressed as root cause versus human failings (Knowledge)

• Leading Indicators in trend data are point of focus versus accident investigation (Data Mining)

• Safety departments can identify trends and lead decision makers to address highest threat (Proactive vs. Reactive)

Worldwide and U. S. Airline FatalitiesClassified by Accident Type – 1992 through 2001

Total Worldwide Fatalities - 6,926

Worldwide

U. S. Operators

CFIT and Loss of Control Fatalities Worldwide = 4,523 or 65%

6/10/02 AT-002

WW number offatal accidents(112 total)

U.S. Operators(22 total)

2731 22 2 3 2 2 817 83

1382CA

989CC

212

CFITLoss ofcontrolin flight

In-flightfire

Mid-air

collision

Fueltank

explosion

Takeoffconfig.

Wind-shear

Fuelexhaus-

tion

Landing RunwayIncursion

Un-known

Ice/snow

Turbu-lence

RTOMisc.fatality

CFIT = Controlled Flight Into TerrainRTO = Refused TakeoffLoss of Control: CA = Control Available; CC = Control Compromised

Note: • Accidents involving multiple, non-onboard fatalities are included.• Accidents involving single, non-onboard fatalities are excluded.• Western-built commercial transports > 60,000 lbs.• Hijack and Sabotage events are excluded

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Data Driven Safety SummaryData Driven Safety Summary• Safety departments generally seen by accountants

as not contributing to profitability – Safety as a Cost Center

• Powerful new tools allow safety departments to statistically predict where the next high cost accident will happen

• Limited resources are focused on the most significant hazards

• Reductions in maintenance, operating, and training costs realized – Safety as a Profit Center