Data, Dollars and Decisions

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1 DATA, DOLLARS AND DECISIONS Jan Freitag Senior Vice President, STR Sponsored by #mtntrv l @jan_fre itag [email protected]

Transcript of Data, Dollars and Decisions

Page 1: Data, Dollars and Decisions

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DATA, DOLLARS AND DECISIONS

Jan FreitagSenior Vice President, STR

Sponsored by

#mtntrvl @[email protected]

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Agenda• Total US Review

• Colorado Ski Area

• Select Resort Markets

• Pipeline

• 2013 / 2014 Forecast

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www.hotelnewsnow.comClick on “Data Presentations”

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Total US Review

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February 2014 (12 MMA): Strongest Demand Ever

% Change

• Room Supply* 1.8 bn 0.7% • Room Demand* 1.1 bn 2.3%• Occupancy 62.5% 1.6% • A.D.R.* $111 3.7% • RevPAR* $69 5.3% • Room Revenue* $123 bn 6.1%

February 12 MMA 2014, Total US Results* All Time High

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OCC Will Probably Continue To Slow. Steady ADR Growth.

199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010 20112012-10

-5

0

5

OCC % ChangeADR % Change

-6.7%

7.5%6.8%

-9.7%

6.2%

Total U.S., ADR & OCC % Change, 12 MMA 1/1990 – 2/2014

4.2%

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Positive RevPAR Growth For The Foreseeable Future

199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010 201120122013-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

-16.8%

-2.6%

-10.1%

9% 8.6%

Total U.S., RevPAR % Change, 12 MMA 1/1990 – 2/2014

65 Months 42 Mo.112 Months

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Colorado Ski Area

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Winter 13/14: Strong RevPAR Growth

% Change

• 171 Properties with 16k rooms• Room Supply -0.8%• Room Demand 5.0%• Occupancy 64% 5.9%• A.D.R. $315 6.4%• RevPAR $201 12.7%• Room Revenue $477mm 11.7%

November 2012 – March (Prelim) 2014, CO Ski Area

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Room Demand Rebounds Well

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20142500000.0

2700000.0

2900000.0

3100000.0

3300000.0

3.2

*CO Ski Areas, Total Room Sold, 12 MMA 1/2000 – 3/2014

3.0

*March 2014Prelim

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Winter Room Demand: Stronger Than Ever

November December January February March100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

400000

2007/8 2011/12 2012/13

2013/14

*March 2014 Prelim

*Monthly Room Demand, 2007/08, ‘11/12, ‘12/13, ’13/14 Nov – Mar; CO Ski Areas

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Winter Room Demand % Change: Good Growth This Season

November December January February March

-0.2

5.0

-3.6

0.2 2.0

11.5

-12.5

8.110.3

5.4 5.2

11.5

5.5 4.5

6.3

2011/12 2012/13 2013/14

*Demand % Change, 2011 – 2014, Nov – Mar; CO Ski Area

*March 2014 Prelim

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Winter OCC: Back To Peak

November December January February March0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

41.9

64.8 69.6

77.1 77.7

31.1

57.7

70.1

78.9 82.2

2007/8 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14

*Monthly Occupancy, 2007/08, ‘11/12, ‘12/13, ’13/14, Nov – Feb; CO Ski Areas

*March 2014 Prelim

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Very Encouraging ADR Trajectory

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014$150

$200

$250

*CO Ski Areas, ADR $, 12 MMA 1/2000 – 3/2014,

*March 2014 Prelim

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As OCC Increases, So Does ADR % Change

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014-6.0

0.0

6.0

12.0

18.0

45.0

50.0

55.0

60.0

65.0 ADR% Change (LHS) OCC% (RHS)

*CO Ski Areas, ADR % Change vs Occupancy % , 12 MMA 1/2000 – 3/2014,

*March 2014 Prelim

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Winter Room ADR: Pricing Power!

November December January February March$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

$350

$400

$128

$370

$321 $326 $330

2007/8 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14

*Monthly ADR, 2007/08, ‘11/12, ‘12/13, ’13/14, Nov – Mar; CO Ski Areas

*March 2014 Prelim

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November December January February March

11.6

10.1

7.5

5.8

4.6

3.8

9.19.6

4.7

1.9

0.7

6.4

5.3 4.3

9.6

2011/12 2012/13 2013/14

*ADR % Change, 2011 – 2014, Nov - Mar, CO Ski Area

Winter ADR %: Healthy Increases Over The Last Years

*March 2014 Prelim

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Winter WEEKDAY OCC: Good Improvements

December January February0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

52.5

63.7

74.6

2011/12 2012/13 2013/14

*Monthly Weekday Occupancy, ‘11/12, ‘12/13, ’13/14, Dec – Feb; CO Ski Areas

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Winter WEEKDAY ADR: Healthy Results

December January February$200

$250

$300

$350

$400 377.83

318.59 314.18

2011/12 2012/13 2013/14

*Monthly Weekday ADR, ‘11/12, ‘12/13, ’13/14, Dec – Feb; CO Ski Areas

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Winter WEEKEND OCC: Pretty Much Sold Out

December January February0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

72.4

85.6 89.7

2011/12 2012/13 2013/14

*Monthly Weekend Occupancy, ‘11/12, ‘12/13, ’13/14, Dec – Feb; CO Ski Areas

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Winter WEEKEND ADR: Full Hotels Have Pricing Power

December January February$200

$250

$300

$350

$400

352.59

324.66

351.92

2011/12 2012/13 2013/14

*Monthly Weekend ADR, ‘11/12, ‘12/13, ’13/14, Dec– Feb; CO Ski Areas

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Summer Room Demand: 2013 – Best Summer Yet

June July August September200000

220000

240000

260000

280000

300000

320000

340000

2011 2012 2013

*Room Demand, 2011 -13, June – September; CO Ski Areas

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Summer Occupancy: Healthy, But Slightly Lower Than 2012

June July August September30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

50.8

64.7 61.3

49.1

2011 2012 2013

*Occupancy, 2011 -13, June – September; CO Ski Areas

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Summer ADR: Healthy Growth Expected in Summer 2014

June July August September$120

$140

$160

$180

$200

$177

$193

$183

$148

2011 2012 2013

*ADR, 2011-13; June – September; CO Ski Areas

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Selected Markets

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Winter Occupancy: 2007/08 Results Still Elusive

Vail Aspen Park City South Lake Tahoe30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

63%

58%

46%

36%

2007/08 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14

*OCC, 2007/08, 2011/12, 2012/13, Nov – Feb; Select Ski Markets

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Winter ADR: Setting New Records

Vail Aspen Park City South Lake Tahoe$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$406

$445

$352

$116

2007/082011/122012/132013/14

*ADR, 2007/08, 2011/12, 2012/13, Nov – Feb; Select Ski Markets

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Summer Occupancy: Mostly Selling 6 Of 10 Rooms

Vail Aspen Park City South Lake Tahoe50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

58%

62% 62%

60%

2011 2012 2013

*OCC, 2007, 2011, 2012, June - September; Select Ski Markets

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Summer ADR: Steady Increases As Availability Shrinks

Vail Aspen Park City South Lake Tahoe$50

$150

$250

$350

$188

$302

$151

$117

2011 2012 2013

*ADR, 2007, 2011, 2012, June – September, Select Ski Markets

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Pipeline

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US Pipeline: Construction Accelerates

Phase 2014 2013 % Change

In Construction 98 74 32%

Final Planning 133 95 40%

Planning 127 150 -16%

Active Pipeline 358 320 12%

*Total US Pipeline, by Phase, ‘000s Rooms, February 2014 and 2013

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Under Construction Rooms Mostly In Middle Segments

Luxury Upper Upscale

Upscale Upper Midscale

Midscale Economy Unaffiliated

4,577.08,285.0

36,485.0

29,262.0

5,125.0

1,084.0

12,921.0

*US Pipeline, Rooms Under Construction , ‘000s Rooms, by Scale, February 2014

67%

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2014 / 2015 Forecast

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U.S. Forecast summary2014

Supply 1.2% 1.2% 1.0%

Demand 2.3% 3.0% 2.4%

Occupancy 1.1% 1.8% 1.4%

ADR 4.2% 4.8% 4.5%

RevPAR 5.3% 6.6% 6.0%

2015Supply 1.6% 1.4%

Demand 2.1% 3.3%

Occupancy 0.5% 1.8%

ADR 4.2% 5.6%

RevPAR 4.7% 7.5%Updated 1/24/14 1/6/14

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Total United StatesChain Scale Key Performance Indicator Outlook 2014F by Chain Scale

2014 Year End Outlook

Chain Scale Occupancy(% chg)

ADR (% chg) RevPAR (%chg)

Luxury 1.6% 4.8% 6.5%Upper Upscale 0.1% 4.4% 4.5%

Upscale 2.2% 4.2% 6.6%Upper Midscale 0.5% 3.2% 3.7%

Midscale 0.9% 3.1% 4.1%Economy 1.7% 3.3% 5.1%

Independent 0.6% 4.5% 5.1%Total United States 1.1% 4.2% 5.3%

*as of February 24th, 2014

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Total United StatesChain Scale Key Performance Indicator Outlook 2015F by Chain Scale

2015 Year End Outlook

Chain Scale Occupancy(% chg)

ADR (% chg) RevPAR (%chg)

Luxury 0.8% 4.8% 6.0%Upper Upscale 0.2% 4.4% 4.6%

Upscale 0.5% 4.2% 5.1%Upper Midscale -0.4% 3.2% 2.1%

Midscale 0.2% 3.1% 3.5%Economy 2.6% 3.3% 6.2%

Independent -0.1% 4.5% 4.3%Total United States 0.5% 4.2% 4.7%

*as of February 24th, 2014

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Publicly Traded Co’s U.S. RevPAR Guidance 2014 • DiamondRock Hospitality + 9% to +11%• Pebblebrook + 6.5% to +7.5%• Hilton + 5% to +7%

(worldwide)• Starwood + 5% to +7%

(worldwide)• Strategic Hotels + 5% to +7%• Hersha Trust + 5% to +7%• Host Hotels + 5% to +6%• Belmond (ex Orient Express) + 4% to +8% (worldwide)• Sunstone + 4% to +6.5% • Marriott + 4% to +6%

(North America)• Wyndham + 4% to +6% • RLJ Trust + 4% to +6%• Ryman + 4% to +6%• Chesapeake +3.5% to +5.5%• Choice + 3.5% to +4.5%

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Less Wrong?

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