Data Digest: Georgia
Transcript of Data Digest: Georgia
Data Digest: GeorgiaData Digest: Georgia
August 2011
Georgia’s economic performance is slightly flatter than that of the United States.
About the Coincident Economic Indicator
115Coincident Economic Indicator
June 2011Jan 2001 = 100
110
105
100
United StatesGeorgia
95
Georgia
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
2
90
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Job gains remain elusive in Georgia as total employment has fallen below levels of the last recession.
4 300
Georgia Payroll EmploymentJune 2011
Thousands,seasonally adjusted
3,900
4,100
4,300
3,500
3,700
,
Georgia shed 8.4% of total employment from peak to trough.
3,100
3,300
2,700
2,900
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics
3
2,500
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
All industries except education and health care saw significant job losses during the downturn and several continue to post declines. Where job growth has occurred, gains have been modest to date.
0 8
Employment Loss and Gain by Industry: GeorgiaJune 2011
-6.0
-21.1
-10.0
-6.5
3.0
7.1
0.0
0.8
Other services
Federal government
State government
Local government
-17.3
-12.2
0.0
-7.4
0.0
6.4
8.9
1.8
Financial services
Business services
Education & healthcare
Leisure & hospitality Percent change trough to presentPercent change peak to trough
11 5
-11.2
-8.0
-18.3
17.3
0.4
0.9
4.8
0.3
Wholesale trade
Retail trade
Transport/Warehousing/Utilities
Information
-8.4
-40.0
-24.5
-11.5
0.3
2.8
1.2
Total
Construction
Manufacturing
Wholesale trade
Forty percent of Georgia’s construction j b h b l
4
Note: A reading of 0.0 in the “trough to present” measure indicates that employment continues to decline in these industries. Likewise, a reading of 0.0 in the “peak to trough” measure indicates that employment continues to increase in these industries.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
-50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20jobs have been lost.
Leisure and hospitality, transportation/warehouse/utilities, and business services continue to show positive employment momentum. State government, construction, information, and financial services employment remain very weak. Retail trade, local government, and wholesale trade show some improvement About Employment Momentumwholesale trade show some improvement.
10Employment Momentum by Sector: Georgia
June 2011ExpandingImproving
4
6
8
t ch
ange
Business servicesRetail trade
Transport/Warehouse/Utilities
Leisure and hospitality
-2
0
2
nual
ized
per
cent
Business services
Construction Wholesale trade
Education and health care
Other services
Federal government
Local government
-8
-6
-4
mon
th a
vera
ge a
nn
ManufacturingInformation
Financial services
-14
-12
-10
3-m
State governmentContracting Slipping
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
5
14
-14 -12 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6
Year-over-year percent change
Job losses in Georgia’s metro areas have been staggering. Recovery has been slow and Valdosta, one of the smaller metro areas, continues to lose jobs.
Employment Loss and Gain by Metro Area: GeorgiaJune 2011
-8.1
-9.6
-4.3
4 8
1.3
0.0
3.3
Savannah
Valdosta
Warner Robins
18 7
-11.2
-8.3
-13.3
1.4
1.3
1.7
4.8
Dalton
Gainesville
Macon
Rome
-5.1
-13.2
-5.9
-18.7
0.6
2.5
1.8
Augusta
Brunswick
Columbus
Percent change trough to present
Percent change peak to trough
-7.2
-8.3
-9.1
3.1
1.4
0.5
Albany
Athens
AtlantaPercent change peak to trough
6
Note: A reading of 0.0 in the “trough to present” measure indicates that employment continues to decline in these metro areas. Likewise, a reading of 0.0 in the
“peak to trough” measure indicates that employment continues to increase in these metro areas.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
-20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10
Some of the smaller metro areas—like Albany, Rome, Brunswick, Columbus, and Savannah—show positive employment momentum. Atlanta, Warner Robins, and Dalton are improving, while Augusta and other, smaller metro areas remain weak.
About Employment Momentum
10
Employment Momentum Metro Area: GeorgiaJune 2011
ExpandingImproving
6
8
chan
ge
AlbanyRome
2
4
ualiz
ed p
erce
nt c
Atlanta
Brunswick
DaltonColumbus
-2
0
onth
ave
rage
ann Savannah
Athens
Warner Robins
-6
-4
3-m
o GainesvilleAugusta Macon
Valdosta
Contracting Slipping
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
7
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4Year-over-year percent change
December 2010 marked the only month since May 2008 that Georgia’s employment momentum was in the “expanding” quadrant, although barely. Employment momentum in Georgia began improving in April 2011.
About Employment Momentum Track
4
Employment Momentum TrackJanuary 2007–June 2011
2
4
ualiz
ed
ExpandingImproving
-2
0
ent
chan
ge,
annu
-6
-4
nth
aver
age
perc
-10
-83-m
on
Contracting Slipping
8
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
-7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3Year-over-year percent change
Georgia’s unemployment rate remains higher than the overall U.S. rate.
11
Unemployment RateJune 2011
Percent of labor force
9
10
7
8
9
GeorgiaUnited States
6
7
The table shows unemployment ratesfor metro areas. Current = May 2011. Year ago and January 2007 are included forcomparison.
4
5
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics
9
comparison.3
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Alternative measures of labor underutilization for Georgia—namely, the U6 figure—show that 17 percent of the state’s labor force is unemployed or underemployed, which is higher than comparable U.S. measures.
About Unemployment Rates
Measures of Labor Utilization: Unemployment Rate and U6Q2 2011 (Georgia U6: Q1 2011)Percent,
seasonally adjusted
16
18
20y j
10
12
14
6
8
10
United States: U6United States: Unemployment rateGeorgia: U6
0
2
4Georgia: U6Georgia: Unemployment rate
10
Note: U6=Unemployed + Marginally attached + Part-time economic reasons/Civilian labor force + Marginally attached. Georgia U6 data are through first-quarter 2011.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Initial claims for unemployment insurance remain high.
25,000
Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims: GeorgiaJuly 9, 20114‐week moving average
21,000
23,000
15 000
17,000
19,000
11,000
13,000
15,000
7,000
9,000
Source: U.S Department of Labor–Employment and Training Administration, Haver Analytics
11
5,000
2008 2009 2010 2011
Sales tax revenues are rebounding and have been posting year-over-year increases since late 2010.
50
Georgia Sales Tax RevenueJune 2011
Year-over-year percent change,3-month average
30
40
10
20
-10
0
30
-20
10
Source: Georgia Department of Revenue, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
12
-30
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Regional manufacturing activity declined in June, according to the Southeast Purchasing Managers Index produced by Kennesaw State University, based on decreases for all underlying components except employment.
70
Southeast Purchasing Managers IndexJune 2011
60
65
70
45
50
55
The Georgia component of the Southeast PMI was 56.9 in June 2011
35
40
45 2011.
20
25
30
13
Note: 50+ = Expansion
Source: Kennesaw State University, Coles College of Business Econometrics Center
20
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Existing home sales have declined after showing improvement in late 2009 and early 2010.
30
Existing Home SalesQ1 2011Year-over-year percent change
20
0
10
-10
United States
-30
-20Georgia
Source: National Association of Realtors, Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
14
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
As a result of low sales and high inventories, new home construction remains near historic lows in Georgia and the United States as a whole.
10,000200,000
New Residential Home Construction PermitsJune 2011
8,000
9,000
160,000
180,000
5 000
6,000
7,000
100 000
120,000
140,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
1,000
2,000
20,000
40,000United States (left scale)Georgia (right scale)
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Haver Analytics
15
00
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Home prices in Georgia have declined substantially over the past five years. After stabilizing somewhat in 2009 and early 2010, prices declined a bit further.
225
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indexthrough May 2011Jan 2000 = 100
FHFA House Price Index: Q1 2011
1-yr % change
5-yr % change
10-yr % change
United States -3.1 -11.8 31.1
Georgia -5.8 -10.3 13.3
200
225
Albany -3.3 1.5 25.5
Athens -8.5 -6.4 17.7
Atlanta -6.4 -14.1 6.1
Brunswick -7.1 -5.4 36.1
Columbus -1.6 -0.9 31.9
175
Dalton -2.7 -9.7 16.1
Gainesville -5.1 -14.3 8.4
Macon -5.0 -3.7 16.2
Rome -3.0 -7.8 16.5
Savannah -4.7 -6.5 41.9
125
150
Valdosta -3.6 2.6 35.2
Warner Robins -0.2 -1.2 19.2100Atlanta
Composite 20
Source: S&P, Haver AnalyticsSource: Federal Housing Finance Agency, Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
16
75
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Office vacancy rates rose throughout the recession but have stabilized in most areas. As a result, commercial construction activity remains low.
24
Office Vacancy RateQ2 2011Percent
22
18
20
14
16
12
United StatesAtlanta
Source: CB Richard Ellis, Haver Analytics
17
10
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Despite the national pickup in manufacturing activity, industrial availability rates remain elevated in Atlanta.
22
Industrial Availability RateQ2 2011
Percent
18
20
14
16
10
12
6
8 United StatesAtlanta
Source: CB Richard Ellis, Haver Analytics
18
4
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Import activity through Georgia’s ports is rebounding from the downturn during the recession. Exports through Georgia ports have been increasing.
Port ActivityQ1 2011$ thousands
16,000,000
18,000,000
20,000,000
10 000 000
12,000,000
14,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
0
2,000,000
4,000,000Savannah District, importsSavannah District, exports
19
Note: The Savannah District includes Atlanta, Brunswick, and Savannah.
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Haver Analytics
0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
For additional sources of information, see our Local Economic Analysis Research Network For additional sources of information, see our Local Economic Analysis Research Network membership at http://www.frbatlanta.org/rein/learn/map/learn_members.cfm.
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