Data Center Interconnects - Optical Communications Market ... · Virtually all the Internet traffic...
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Transcript of Data Center Interconnects - Optical Communications Market ... · Virtually all the Internet traffic...
LIGHTCOUNTINGMarket Research on High-Speed InterconnectsDatacom, Telecom, CATV, FTTX, Consumer markets © Copyright 2012 LightCounting LLC All material proprietary and confidential.
Data Center Interconnects
Brad SmithVP & Chief Analyst
Data Center Interconnects
[email protected](408) 813-4345
3/12/2012 1
LIGHTCOUNTINGMarket Research on High-Speed InterconnectsDatacom, Telecom, CATV, FTTX, Consumer markets © Copyright 2012 LightCounting LLC All material proprietary and confidential.
Virtually all the Internet traffic – goes through an opticaltransceiver somewhere in the telecom and datacom network!
3/12/2012 2
Virtually all the Internet traffic – goes through an opticaltransceiver somewhere in the telecom and datacom network!
Supplied by transceiver companies…About one quarter away for bankruptcy
LIGHTCOUNTINGMarket Research on High-Speed InterconnectsDatacom, Telecom, CATV, FTTX, Consumer markets © Copyright 2012 LightCounting LLC All material proprietary and confidential.
3/12/2012 3
Virtually all the Internet traffic – goes through anoptical transceiver somewhere in the telecom and
datacom network!
Supplied by transceiver companies…About one quarter away from
bankruptcy!
LIGHTCOUNTINGMarket Research on High-Speed InterconnectsDatacom, Telecom, CATV, FTTX, Consumer markets © Copyright 2012 LightCounting LLC All material proprietary and confidential.
Waiting for New ServersWaiting for 10GBASE-T
Preparing for the Exa Flood of Data
3/12/2012 4
State of the Data Center Business
LIGHTCOUNTINGMarket Research on High-Speed InterconnectsDatacom, Telecom, CATV, FTTX, Consumer markets © Copyright 2012 LightCounting LLC All material proprietary and confidential.
State of the Industry• Data centers are largely very cost sensitive; governs all
decision making– Decision algorithm (Cost of new product) / Server cost– Buy 100G LR4 transceiver OR 8 servers?
• Average and large data center needs 4-5G, not 10G yet• Getting ready for 10G and 40G QSFP• Most popular optical transceiver = 1G SFP+ & 10G SFP+
• Top-of-rack & End-of-row switches are 10G SFP+ & 40G QSFPready but ….
• Entire industry is “Waiting for new Romley servers”• And 10GBASE-T low-power 28-nm parts
3/12/2012 5
LIGHTCOUNTINGMarket Research on High-Speed InterconnectsDatacom, Telecom, CATV, FTTX, Consumer markets © Copyright 2012 LightCounting LLC All material proprietary and confidential.
Intel’s Tick-Tock ModelSets the Clock for Data Center Upgrades
Tick= Architecture upgrade ; Tock= Silicon Shrink
3/12/2012 6
Delayed by ~8 months (Leap year effect?)Data center spending delayed by 8 months
LIGHTCOUNTINGMarket Research on High-Speed InterconnectsDatacom, Telecom, CATV, FTTX, Consumer markets © Copyright 2012 LightCounting LLC All material proprietary and confidential.
MPUs – Key Data center Driver
• 8cores, 16 threads (AMD 16 Cores)• Increase DRAM support 128G to 768G+• PCI Express 3.0 faster I/O• Energy efficient• Bottom line: 80 percent more performance than the
previous generation Xeon 5600 MPUs
3/12/2012 7
X540 Lan-on-motherboard (LOM) comes in at only 25% ofthe cost of an SFP+ fiber per port deployment.
LIGHTCOUNTINGMarket Research on High-Speed InterconnectsDatacom, Telecom, CATV, FTTX, Consumer markets © Copyright 2012 LightCounting LLC All material proprietary and confidential.
Microprocessors
3/12/2012 8
2-4 Cores 10-16 Cores 40-50 Cores
2 MPUs/Server128GBytes DRAMPCIe Gen2 (8 lanes @5G/lane
? MPUs/Server1T+ Bytes DRAMPCIe Gen3 (8G/lane)ARM, INTEL, AMD
4 MPUs/Server768G Bytes DRAMPCIe Gen3 (8/16 lanes @8G/lane
?Data centerin a server
LIGHTCOUNTINGMarket Research on High-Speed InterconnectsDatacom, Telecom, CATV, FTTX, Consumer markets © Copyright 2012 LightCounting LLC All material proprietary and confidential.
I/O for Interconnects• Virtualization software
– Sends jobs to non busy MPUs– Increases utilization from 20% to 90%
• I/O increases: Data Direct I/0 - transfer of data directly to from thenetwork interface and cache, bypassing main memory
• PCI Express Gen 2 5G 8b/10b and 8 lanes• PCI Express Gen 3 8G 128/132 and 8-16 lanes• “66 GB/s in tested I/O bandwidth”
• Bottom line: ~300 % faster I/O bandwidth!
3/12/2012 9
20% 90%
LIGHTCOUNTINGMarket Research on High-Speed InterconnectsDatacom, Telecom, CATV, FTTX, Consumer markets © Copyright 2012 LightCounting LLC All material proprietary and confidential.
Servers per Rack
3/12/2012 10
48 - Severs / Rack60+ Severs / Rack
LIGHTCOUNTINGMarket Research on High-Speed InterconnectsDatacom, Telecom, CATV, FTTX, Consumer markets © Copyright 2012 LightCounting LLC All material proprietary and confidential.
Cabling in the “Marketing” Brochures
3/12/2012 11
LIGHTCOUNTINGMarket Research on High-Speed InterconnectsDatacom, Telecom, CATV, FTTX, Consumer markets © Copyright 2012 LightCounting LLC All material proprietary and confidential.
3/12/2012 12
Traditional Data Center Reality
LIGHTCOUNTINGMarket Research on High-Speed InterconnectsDatacom, Telecom, CATV, FTTX, Consumer markets © Copyright 2012 LightCounting LLC All material proprietary and confidential.
3/12/2012 13
Cabling Realities
LIGHTCOUNTINGMarket Research on High-Speed InterconnectsDatacom, Telecom, CATV, FTTX, Consumer markets © Copyright 2012 LightCounting LLC All material proprietary and confidential.
The Yellow Wall
3/12/2012 14
LIGHTCOUNTINGMarket Research on High-Speed InterconnectsDatacom, Telecom, CATV, FTTX, Consumer markets © Copyright 2012 LightCounting LLC All material proprietary and confidential.
Traditional Data centerComputer & Switch History Museum
3/12/2012 15
LIGHTCOUNTINGMarket Research on High-Speed InterconnectsDatacom, Telecom, CATV, FTTX, Consumer markets © Copyright 2012 LightCounting LLC All material proprietary and confidential.
Modern Data center
3/12/2012 16
LIGHTCOUNTINGMarket Research on High-Speed InterconnectsDatacom, Telecom, CATV, FTTX, Consumer markets © Copyright 2012 LightCounting LLC All material proprietary and confidential.
3/12/2012 17
.primecaretech.com
Mega Data Center
LIGHTCOUNTINGMarket Research on High-Speed InterconnectsDatacom, Telecom, CATV, FTTX, Consumer markets © Copyright 2012 LightCounting LLC All material proprietary and confidential.
SuperComputer Site (HPC)
3/12/2012 18
16M Watts of power
LIGHTCOUNTINGMarket Research on High-Speed InterconnectsDatacom, Telecom, CATV, FTTX, Consumer markets © Copyright 2012 LightCounting LLC All material proprietary and confidential.
Apple South Carolina Data Center
3/12/2012 19
LIGHTCOUNTINGMarket Research on High-Speed InterconnectsDatacom, Telecom, CATV, FTTX, Consumer markets © Copyright 2012 LightCounting LLC All material proprietary and confidential.
Most High-Speed InterconnectsApproaching the “10G” Speed Barrier
Most High-Speed InterconnectsApproaching the “10G” Speed Barrier
One of the biggest technical transitions in the communicationsindustry and huge opportunities for photonic interconnects
LIGHTCOUNTINGMarket Research on High-Speed InterconnectsDatacom, Telecom, CATV, FTTX, Consumer markets © Copyright 2012 LightCounting LLC All material proprietary and confidential.
Major Data Center ProtocolsAll Hit 10Gbps barrier
• Direct Attach: 10G = 7m; 14G=3m; 25G will need active DAC?• 10GBASE-T needs microprocessor sized PHY to hit 10G
• InfiniBand: 10G moving to 14G FDR & 28G EDR• Ethernet: 10G moving to 25G• Fibre Channel: 8G moving to 14G & 28G• SAS: 6G moving to 12G and 24G• PCI Express: Gen2 5G moving to Gen3 8G & Gen4 16G
• All pass ~10Gbps where copper has issues• Reaches are becoming longer
• Optical value proposition = high data rate + long reach• Many data center protocols transitioning fro Copper-to-Optical
3/12/2012 21
LIGHTCOUNTINGMarket Research on High-Speed InterconnectsDatacom, Telecom, CATV, FTTX, Consumer markets © Copyright 2012 LightCounting LLC All material proprietary and confidential.
Smartphones & Tablets• Battle is on features:
– HDTV “Blue-ray” 1080p video– 8Mpixel cameras 24 M pixel cameras
with digital zooms– 4 core microprocessors; 64-128GB FLASH Ram– 2Kx1K resolutions “retina” displays & screen size
Next wave– iMoney – smartphone credit cards– Video calls on 4G networks and WiFi
3/12/2012 22
LIGHTCOUNTINGMarket Research on High-Speed InterconnectsDatacom, Telecom, CATV, FTTX, Consumer markets © Copyright 2012 LightCounting LLC All material proprietary and confidential.
Mobile Master Clock
3/12/2012 23
March September
LIGHTCOUNTINGMarket Research on High-Speed InterconnectsDatacom, Telecom, CATV, FTTX, Consumer markets © Copyright 2012 LightCounting LLC All material proprietary and confidential.
Master Industry ClockIntel & Apple
3/12/2012 24
SmartphonesiPhone Google Android, etc
Intel Tick-Tock ModelProtocol roadmaps- Ethernet- Fibre Channel- SAS- PCI Express
Client SideServer Side
WirelessCATV
TelecomInfrastructure
FTTA
CATVDSL
Long HaulMetroLoops
LIGHTCOUNTINGMarket Research on High-Speed InterconnectsDatacom, Telecom, CATV, FTTX, Consumer markets © Copyright 2012 LightCounting LLC All material proprietary and confidential.
Consumer Electronics Show
LIGHTCOUNTINGMarket Research on High-Speed InterconnectsDatacom, Telecom, CATV, FTTX, Consumer markets © Copyright 2012 LightCounting LLC All material proprietary and confidential.
Getting Ready for 25G (100G)Devices, MSAs and Protocols
Silicon photonics
SystemsCabling
TransceiversSemiconductors
3/12/2012 26
LIGHTCOUNTINGMarket Research on High-Speed InterconnectsDatacom, Telecom, CATV, FTTX, Consumer markets © Copyright 2012 LightCounting LLC All material proprietary and confidential.
MSA Madness!• CFP• CFP/2• CFP/4• CFP/4 DD
• zQSFP, zCXP• eQSFP, eCXP• QSFP2, CXP ext.
3/12/2012 27
It is all digital ones and zeros!OEMs have to supportboth new & old!
LIGHTCOUNTINGMarket Research on High-Speed InterconnectsDatacom, Telecom, CATV, FTTX, Consumer markets © Copyright 2012 LightCounting LLC All material proprietary and confidential.
Explosion of Protocol for OpticalCopper-to-Optical Transition
3/12/2012 28
Road Maps
InfiniBand
PCI Express
HDMIDisplayPortUSB
LIGHTCOUNTINGMarket Research on High-Speed InterconnectsDatacom, Telecom, CATV, FTTX, Consumer markets © Copyright 2012 LightCounting LLC All material proprietary and confidential.
M&As Restructure the Industry~24-months
SystemsCabling
TransceiversSemiconductors
3/12/2012 29
LIGHTCOUNTINGMarket Research on High-Speed InterconnectsDatacom, Telecom, CATV, FTTX, Consumer markets © Copyright 2012 LightCounting LLC All material proprietary and confidential.
Cabling Companies Buy AOC Startups + BUs
• TE bought Zarlink BU• FCI Bought MergeOptics• Molex bought Luxtera BU• Samtec bought AlpenIO
Result:• $ xx Billion, international connector, cabling, companies• Offering transceiver and AOCs, EOM, VCSELs
– New set of competitors for transceiver companies– Full line of copper & optical products– Power cables, every protocol, every MSA, connector, etc
3/12/2012 30
LIGHTCOUNTINGMarket Research on High-Speed InterconnectsDatacom, Telecom, CATV, FTTX, Consumer markets © Copyright 2012 LightCounting LLC All material proprietary and confidential.
Cisco Introduced Blade ServersCompetes against former server partners
• HP bought 3Com/3Par• IBM bought Blade Network Technologies• Dell bought Force10• Oracle bought Sun Microsystems• Mellanox bought Voltaire (InfiniBand)• Intel bought QLogic and Fulcrum (InfiniBand)
Result:• Integrated server & switch companies• Expect new architectures• Expect integrated server & switch products
3/12/2012 31
“Rack as a Sku”
LIGHTCOUNTINGMarket Research on High-Speed InterconnectsDatacom, Telecom, CATV, FTTX, Consumer markets © Copyright 2012 LightCounting LLC All material proprietary and confidential.
Cisco Buys Transceiver CompaniesCoreOptics & LightWire
• CoreOptics: 100G Long haul in-house• LightWire: Silicon photonics in-house
– 4x25G (100G) -- WDM– High speed modulation (40G) & integrated electronics– Data center (500 meters) & Metro (10Km)
Result:• Servers, switches, and interconnects – all in-house
3/12/2012 32
LIGHTCOUNTINGMarket Research on High-Speed InterconnectsDatacom, Telecom, CATV, FTTX, Consumer markets © Copyright 2012 LightCounting LLC All material proprietary and confidential.
What’s Next?• Start a wave of M&As of silicon photonics and transceiver
companies?– Yes (p=70%) Who? Companies with innovative 100G-400G technologies.
• M&As wave of core component companies?• 25G VCSELs, TIA/LD, semiconductor companies?
LightCounting speculation:1) Expect new architectures blends servers and switches, ARM?2) “Rack as a Sku”3) Key-locked port concept to increase4) Inside the rack - EOMs and fiber fabrics, embedded AOCs5) Multi-Rack links will be from the OEM (transceivers, AOCs, DAC)6) Open market, unlocked ports; IEEE standard interoperable – for a price!
Bottom line is the companies want to increase their bottom lines
3/12/2012 33
?
LIGHTCOUNTINGMarket Research on High-Speed InterconnectsDatacom, Telecom, CATV, FTTX, Consumer markets © Copyright 2012 LightCounting LLC All material proprietary and confidential.
The only thing I remember fromCollege English classes
3/12/2012 34
In the words of one poet,
“The Big fish eat the Large fish….
the Large fish eat the Tiny fish…..
…….. and the Tiny fish eat ---mud!”
LIGHTCOUNTINGMarket Research on High-Speed InterconnectsDatacom, Telecom, CATV, FTTX, Consumer markets © Copyright 2012 LightCounting LLC All material proprietary and confidential.
“Waiting for 10GBASE-T• Reeaaaaly big!• “When it gets small … ….. it will be big”
• Lan On Motherboard (LOM) is key to market- PHY chip needs 28-nm (now at 40-nm)- Late 2013/2014
- 10GBASE-T likely the last LOM implementation
- VCs spent $850M on 10+ startups
- 40GBase-T and 4x10GBase-T likely will be from majorsuppliers – not startups!
- When it happens:- It will last for 8+ years 2013+8= 2022!- Likely will crush Direct Attach copper
3/12/2012 35
130-nm - This will be the year!90-nm - This will be the year !65-nm - This will be the year !40-nm - This will be the year!28-nm – This will be the year!
LIGHTCOUNTINGMarket Research on High-Speed InterconnectsDatacom, Telecom, CATV, FTTX, Consumer markets © Copyright 2012 LightCounting LLC All material proprietary and confidential.
Direct Attach copper• Has become very popular <5-7meters• Filling the 10GBASE-T void• Low-cost, low-power, Plug & Play• Cheaper than optical SFP+• Active & Passive DAC
• Numerous problems surfacing– Electrically linking different vendors equipment together directly
– different than linking optically– “Limiting” and “non-limiting” ports – no warning labels
• Net: “DAC in the Rack”• ---until 10GBASE-T LOM shows up
• Then game is 28G SFP+ and QSFP
3/12/2012 36
10G = 7 meters14G = 3meters28G = ????
LIGHTCOUNTINGMarket Research on High-Speed InterconnectsDatacom, Telecom, CATV, FTTX, Consumer markets © Copyright 2012 LightCounting LLC All material proprietary and confidential.
40G QSFP (4x10G)40G SR & 40G LR4
• “SFP+” Replacement• Hot product for transceivers & AOCs next 2 years• All the Top-of-rack and End-of-row switches are 40G ready but ….
“Waiting for Intel Romley servers”
Meets User Wants and Needs• 1 slot – 1 MSA – Multiple reaches – MMF & SMF
– SR4 (100 meter) or LR4 (10Km)– Double SMF or 4 SMF
• Influx of new vendor announcements (USA, J, Asia, Euro)• Prices are going to drop rapidly $300 <$200
• Net: 40G QSFP is where the money will be from 2012-2014 withRomley/Ivy Bridge-class servers
3/12/2012 37
LIGHTCOUNTINGMarket Research on High-Speed InterconnectsDatacom, Telecom, CATV, FTTX, Consumer markets © Copyright 2012 LightCounting LLC All material proprietary and confidential.
40G QSFP• 2 Phases to market adoption
– Phase 1: Linking Top-of-rack and End-of-rowswitches
• East-West links
– Phase 2: Server uplinks (Intel Ivy bridge MPUs PcieGen3) for high-bandwidth needs
• North-South server links
By the time 10GBASE-T gets its act together, 10G willseem like 56Kb modem
3/12/2012 38
LIGHTCOUNTINGMarket Research on High-Speed InterconnectsDatacom, Telecom, CATV, FTTX, Consumer markets © Copyright 2012 LightCounting LLC All material proprietary and confidential.
100G
• Lots of discussion and excitement• Google & 10x10MSA woke everyone up to the
coming exa-flood of data•• What customers want: inexpensive, QSFP
solutions (or CFP/4), dual and parallel fibers
• Waiting for 25G VCSELS for short reach• Waiting for LR4 prices to come down
3/12/2012 39GET Luxtera 100G IEE SLIDE
LIGHTCOUNTINGMarket Research on High-Speed InterconnectsDatacom, Telecom, CATV, FTTX, Consumer markets © Copyright 2012 LightCounting LLC All material proprietary and confidential.
Why 100G Needed in Data Centers100G Driving Forces
• 48 – 60 Servers/ rack• 10Gbps server uplinks
• 480G -600G problem!
• Will demand 100G uplinks
• Timing: Romley Q2/2012 : Volume 2H/2012
• ~ 2H/ 2013 need for 100G transceivers climb rapidly
3/12/2012 40
LIGHTCOUNTINGMarket Research on High-Speed InterconnectsDatacom, Telecom, CATV, FTTX, Consumer markets © Copyright 2012 LightCounting LLC All material proprietary and confidential.
3/12/2012 41
.primecaretech.com
Mega Data Center
Link this rack
To this rack
400-600metes
LIGHTCOUNTINGMarket Research on High-Speed InterconnectsDatacom, Telecom, CATV, FTTX, Consumer markets © Copyright 2012 LightCounting LLC All material proprietary and confidential.
100G
• Early shipments just begun shipping• Drivers: Hazwell & Ivy Bridge class Servers & PCI
Express Gen 3 2015+– SR: 40G & 100G shipments 8,000-10,000 (QSFP, CXP)– LR4: 40G 1,800 units & 100G ~ 2,600 units– 10x10MSA ~ 3,500-5,000 units?
• 2Km is really 600 meters – HUH?
3/12/2012 42
LIGHTCOUNTINGMarket Research on High-Speed InterconnectsDatacom, Telecom, CATV, FTTX, Consumer markets © Copyright 2012 LightCounting LLC All material proprietary and confidential.
Active Optical Cables
• Very popular in High Performance computers (HPCs) TOP25• Technology is proven out and is rippling down to Top 25-100 & High-
end data centers• Used to connect top-of-rack switches to end-of-row switches (4x10G
QSFP)• Large router companies are seriously investigating using 12x10G CXP• Advantages: Plug & Play; green light; No optical connector cleaning,
familiar copper connector; low power (700mW per end)
• InfiniBand today but slowly moving to Ethernet, SAS, PCI Express
3/12/2012 43
LIGHTCOUNTINGMarket Research on High-Speed InterconnectsDatacom, Telecom, CATV, FTTX, Consumer markets © Copyright 2012 LightCounting LLC All material proprietary and confidential.
Chinese AOCs• Flood of Chinese manufacturers chasing Chinese
Supercomputer deals• Severe price drops
3/12/2012 44
LIGHTCOUNTINGMarket Research on High-Speed InterconnectsDatacom, Telecom, CATV, FTTX, Consumer markets © Copyright 2012 LightCounting LLC All material proprietary and confidential.
3/12/2012 45
CES AOCs
LIGHTCOUNTINGMarket Research on High-Speed InterconnectsDatacom, Telecom, CATV, FTTX, Consumer markets © Copyright 2012 LightCounting LLC All material proprietary and confidential.
1 Core AOC TechnologyCreates Multiple Products
• Multiple types– 1x10G SFP+ - 4x5G CX-4– 4x10G QSFP - 4x14G QSFP– 12x10G CXP - 12x12.5G CXP– 8 x 8G iPass
• Breakout AOCs: 4-SFP/QSFP and 3-QSFP/CXP
• Embedded Optical Module (EOM) replacing SNAP12– For inside chassis applications (no MSAs yet)
• Parallel Optical Transceivers
• AOC/Transceiver: AOC with connectorized fibers
3/12/2012 46
Avago
FCI
GigaLight
AlpenIOPhotonera
LIGHTCOUNTINGMarket Research on High-Speed InterconnectsDatacom, Telecom, CATV, FTTX, Consumer markets © Copyright 2012 LightCounting LLC All material proprietary and confidential.
Embedded Optical Modules“Avago MicroPOD-Like Thingies”
• Inside chassis applications• Mid-board optics• Start out at 10G but the big market will be at 25G• Start out in large routers; later move to servers
3/12/2012 47
Finisar
Avago
LIGHTCOUNTINGMarket Research on High-Speed InterconnectsDatacom, Telecom, CATV, FTTX, Consumer markets © Copyright 2012 LightCounting LLC All material proprietary and confidential.
3/12/2012 48
Avago EOMs
LIGHTCOUNTINGMarket Research on High-Speed InterconnectsDatacom, Telecom, CATV, FTTX, Consumer markets © Copyright 2012 LightCounting LLC All material proprietary and confidential.
Optically Enabled Hybrid Chip Packages
• FTTChip– Mez cards– Chip/Optical
3/12/2012 49
Reflex/Fulcrum
LIGHTCOUNTINGMarket Research on High-Speed InterconnectsDatacom, Telecom, CATV, FTTX, Consumer markets © Copyright 2012 LightCounting LLC All material proprietary and confidential.
SmartPhones and Tablets Interconnects
LIGHTCOUNTINGMarket Research on High-Speed InterconnectsDatacom, Telecom, CATV, FTTX, Consumer markets © Copyright 2012 LightCounting LLC All material proprietary and confidential.
Tablet
3/12/2012 51
LIGHTCOUNTINGMarket Research on High-Speed InterconnectsDatacom, Telecom, CATV, FTTX, Consumer markets © Copyright 2012 LightCounting LLC All material proprietary and confidential.
8-Inch AOCs?Ultra-Short Reach
• iPad4, iPhone 6, 2014 class notebooks will haveserious RFI - EMI issues
• HDTVs, high-end video cameras, and othercommercial and consumer electronics will have thesame problem
3/12/2012 52
– Mobile Interface and MediaInterconnect (MIPI.org)
Hitachi Cable
LIGHTCOUNTINGMarket Research on High-Speed InterconnectsDatacom, Telecom, CATV, FTTX, Consumer markets © Copyright 2012 LightCounting LLC All material proprietary and confidential.
Data center Optics
• Pluggable transceivers
• Active Optical Cables
• Embedded Optical Modules
• FTTChip– Mez cards– Chip/Optical
3/12/2012 53
Finisar
Reflex/Fulcrum
Avago
More high-speed opticswithin and between racks
will push more traffic to 40G/100Guplinks
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3/12/2012 54
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