Data-based Decision Making:Analyzing Enrollment Data

PPS Enrollment Trends: 1995-2004

47,918

57,266

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Enrollment estimated to level off to about 44,000 students by 2010*

*Population Research Center, Portland State University, August 2004

PPS Enrollment Trends for Elementary Schools: 1995-2004

21,560

26,727

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

PPS Enrollment Trends for Middle Schools: 1995-2004

9,447

11,883

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

PPS Enrollment Trends for High Schools: 1995-2004

12,797

13,481

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Elementary Schools with Major Enrollment Shifts

Capitol Hill – 9.6%Boise Eliot – 10.3%Chief Joseph – 12.0%Vernon – 13.3 %Lee – 14.0%Scott – 14.3%Creston – 18.3%Kenton – 25.3%Applegate – 30.8%

Forest Park – 13.3%

Hayhurst – 66.5%

Sunnyside Environ. – 126.1%

Fernwood – 9.6%

Ockley Green – 9.8%

Gregory Heights – 12.4%

Whitaker – 14.3%

Tubman – 20.6%

Middle Schools with Major Enrollment Shifts

Decrease in births rate since 1981, (constant 5,600-5,800 annual birth rate since 1993).

Fewer school-age children.

Fewer young families moving into Portland than moving out.

More affordable family housing available outside Portland.

Residents are aging in-place.Barry Edmonston, Population Research Center, Portland State University, October 2004

What is causing declines in enrollment?

Most families with school-age children are still choosing Portland Public Schools – (84% capture rate)

What remains constant?

Barry Edmonston, Population Research Center, Portland State University, October 2004

What is happening in other districts?

Between 1990 and 2000, 7 Multnomah County school districts gained residents, paced by mid and east county

districts.

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Population: percentage change 1990-2000

REYNOLDS DAVIDDOUGLAS

GRESHAM-BARLOW

CENTENNIAL PARKROSE

RIVERDALE

PPS CORBETT

From Report to the Leader’s Roundtable Update on Multnomah County 3 rd Grade Reading Initiative, Sept. 28, 2004

What is happening in other districts?

PPS lost households with children while districts to the east, led strongly by Reynolds, gained them.

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

REYNOLDS DAVIDDOUGLAS

GRESHAM-BARLOW

CENTENNIAL PARKROSE RIVERDALE

PPS CORBETT

Households with children: percentage change 1990-2000

From Report to the Leader’s Roundtable Update on Multnomah County 3 rd Grade Reading Initiative, Sept. 28, 2004

Criteria for Addressing Growth in School Enrollments

Elementary and middle schools with 30 or more students above their ADM (average daily membership).

High schools with enrollments greater than the ADM used for staffing of 75 or more students.

Developed by Dr. Patricia Pickles and Area Directors

Other Considerations

Not all positions were allocated given the current financial uncertainties.

Staff work with schools to develop options (such as blends) when enrollment is high at one or two grade levels.

Area Directors have discretion to make small adjustments within clusters.

Additional Staff Allocations (To date)

School FTE

Forest Park Elementary School 1.3

Franklin High School 3.0

Grant High School 0.5

TOTAL 4.8

Addressing Decreases in School Enrollment: Critical Questions

What makes for effective schools (based on research and good practice)? Academic programming

Efficient use of resources

Size and learning environment

What’s the Tipping Point? School Initiation and Closure Policy

Implementation Steps