Data Assimilation in the NCEO (National Centre for Earth Observation)
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Data Assimilation in the NCEO(National Centre for Earth Observation)
Peter Jan van LeeuwenData-Assimilation Research Centre DARC
University of Reading
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NCEO Structure
EO for climate diagnosisand prediction
(Integrating Theme)
Global carbon cycle
Atmosphericcomposition
Dynamic Earth and geo-hazards
Cryosphere andpolar oceans
Data assimilation and treatment of uncertainty(Cross Cutting Theme)
Training
Capability and knowledge exchange
Wider NERC supported EO programme
Hazardous weather and
water resources
EO informatics(Underpinning Theme)
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What is data assimilation?
Solution is pdf!
NO INVERSION !!!
Bayes theorem:
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High-resolution weather predictionMet Office system
/ 1.5km
(c) MeteoFrance
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The Carbon Cycle Data Assimilation System
Assimilation of FAPAR and atm. CO2 flask data to optimise parameter values (and uncertainties) of a
process-based terrestrial ecosystem model (BETHY). (Scholze et al., Bristol)
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Posterior uncertainties on parameters
Relative Error Reduction1–opt/prior
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Net C fluxes and their uncertainties
Long term mean fluxes to atmosphere (gC/m2/year) and uncertainties
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Forests and climate change
Science 320, 1444 (2008); Gordon B. Bonan, et al. Forests and Climate Change
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INTRO » CONTEXT » DATA ASSIMILATION » SCALING ISSUES » SOLUTION
Scales of Flux Observations
Global
1000x1000 km
100x100 km
10x10 km
1x1 km
100x100 m
10x10 m
1x1 m
≤10x10 cm
≤Second
Minute
Hour
Day
Month
Year
≥Decade
Photo Christian Morel /www.ourpolarheritiage.comPhoto Christian Morel /www.ourpolarheritiage.com
CO2
CH4
N2O
SF6
COH2
222Rn
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Rank histogram truth vs. particles1000 dimensional system