DANISH OFFSHORE WIND EXPERIENCE AND THE FUTURE …
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DANISH OFFSHORE WIND EXPERIENCE AND THE FUTURE DEVELOPMENTS OFFSHORE WIND IN DENMARK 15. September 2014 Peder Bo Sorensen, Invest in Denmark
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DANISH OFFSHORE WIND EXPERIENCE AND THE FUTURE DEVELOPMENTS
OFFSHORE WIND IN DENMARK
15. September 2014 Peder Bo Sorensen, Invest in Denmark
DENMARK
25 September, 2014 Peder Bo Sorensen, Invest in Denmark
DENMARK AND OFFSHORE WIND - A SHORT STATUS
23 YEARS OF OFFSHORE WINDFARMS
WORLD CLASS SUPPLYCHAIN DEVELOPED
BALANCING THE GRID IS POSSIBLE
25 September, 2014 Insert Name, Department, etc via 'Insert', 'Header & Footer'
TWO KIND OF PROJECTS
Tender
Projects
Developer bid the lowest feed-in tarif for 50.000
hours (12 years)
Open Door
0.25 Dkk/kWh plus market price. Developer apply for permission to do feasibility
study
25 September, 2014
OFFSHORE WINDPARKS IN DENMARK Offshore Windparks Year MW Number of turbines
Vindeby 1991 5 11
Tunø Knob 1995 5 10
Middelgrunden 2000 40 20
Horns Rev I 2002 160 80
Rønland I 2003 17 8
Nysted 2003 165 72
Samsø 2003 23 10
Frederikshavn 2003 7 3
Horns Rev II 2009 209 91
Avedøre Holme 2009/2010 11 3
Sprogø 2009 21 7
Rødsand II 2010 207 90
Anholt 2013 400 111
25 September, 2014 Peder Bo Sorensen, Invest in Denmark
Total
1270 MW
THE DANISH WIND POWER INDUSTRY
... Knowledge, Experience and Dedication Supported by Excellent
R&D Centers - The Offshore Wind Value Chain
Raw Materials
Intermedia-te goods
Component Mfg
Wind Turbine
Design and Assembly
Planning & Design (EPC)
Installation Asset
ownership O&M
Blades Subsea Cables
Towers Control &
Brake systems
Offshore Substations
Offshore foundations
…. Including excellent supportive universities,
test centres and engineering companies
ELECTRICITY FROM WINDPOWER- 53% OF CONSUMTION – OCTOBER 11th 2011
Source: www.energinet.dk
In January 2014
more than 60%
of electricy
consumption
was supplied
from windpower
and in certain
days it was 100%
FEED IN TARIFFS
Park Price in DKK Price in EURO
Cents
Horns Rev II 0.518 6.9
Rødsand 2 0.629 8.4
Anholt 1.050 14.1
Budget Price 0.80 – 0.90 10.7 – 12.0
LESSONS LEARNED
• Minimizing Risk
• Look at tender process
• Transparent policy and tariffs
• Long Term built out plan
• One stop Shop - Danish Energy Agency
THE FUTURE?
GROWING MARKET
COST OF ENERGY REDUCTION
FRAMEWORK CONDITIONS
TECHNOLGY DEVELOPMENT
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OFFSHORE WIND DEVELOPMENT
Source: MAKE – Analyst presentation 140601
Global offshore capacity will reach 78GW by the end of
2023, with 39GW in Europe, 37GW in APAC and 2GW
in Americas
From 2017 global demand will take a step change from
continued strong Northern European demand and
more markets accelerating offshore wind development
EMEA will lead offshore installations in the short-
medium term, but APAC will overtake the position from
2019 onwards with over 4GW of annual installations
Offshore expectations in Europe have been tempered
by regulatory concerns and slow offshore grid
expansion
Finally resolved administrative conflicts in China open
up steep growth potential for offshore wind in APAC
from 2014
Offshore market forecast: 2013-2023e EMEA Leads the Off-shore Wind Capacity
in the short run
+19.6%
OFFSHORE LCOE REDUCTION AS A RESULT OF ECONOMIES OF SCALE
Offshore wind shows potential to reduce
LCOE by over 40% through innovation
and development of scale economies
Larger Turbines and farms
Lower cost substructures
Higher availability
Higher operational excellence in project
execution and maintenance
25 September, 2014 Peder Bo Sorensen, Invest in Denmark
LCOE improvements (unsubsidized LCOE)
140
160
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
2020e
LC
OE
– E
uro
s/M
Wh
2014
150
‘2014
‘Parity
’
-43.8%
2025e
84
110
Turbine Supply BOP cost O&M Other
Source: MAKE Analyst Presentation140601
20
29
42
12
26
42
57
14
37
21
33
10
Units 2014 2020e 2025e
Turbine
rating (MW) 4.0 6.0 8.0
Rotor
diameter (m) 130 155 180
DANISH ENERGY POLICY MILESTONES
• plan for built-out in the long run • stable and transparent subsidies
NEW OFFSHORE TENDERS IN DENMARK WITH
INSTALLATION BEFORE 2020
25 September, 2014 Peder Bo Sorensen, Invest in Denmark
Two new offshore tenders:
400 MW at Horns Rev and
600 MW at Kriegers Flak
Tender - nearshore projects
450 MW around Danish
coastline
50 MW turbines for research
and development
Danish Nearshore Projects
pose a safe-level entry to
Northern European
Offshore in a highly
experienced environment
including local utilities with
the largest track record
TENDER PROCESS HORNS REV 3
25 September, 2014
ACTUAL OFFSHORE WIND PROJECTS IN PROCESS
Offshore Wind
Projects
Year MW Number of turbines Type
Frederikshavn
testturbines
< 2016 < 50 6 Open door
Nissum Bredning
testturbines
- ?? 11-14 Open door
Mejlflak > 2016 60-120 20 Open door
Horns Rev III < 2020 400 - Tender
Kriegers Flak 2020 - 2022 600 - Tender
Omø Syd - 200-320 - Open door
Nearshore Parks < 2020 500(400) (50 test
turbines)
- Tender
Jammerland Bugt - 120-240 - Open door
Total 1830-2230
25 September, 2014 Peder Bo Sorensen, Invest in Denmark
DENMARK IS PERFECTLY LOCATED FOR PROJECTS
IN THE NORTH SEA AS WELL AS THE BALTIC SEA
25 September, 2014
Source : Port of EsbjergPort of Esbjerg
TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENT AND TESTFACILITIES
- larger, more reliable and efficient
Østerild is prototype testing sites for off-shore turbines up to 250 metres height. 10-12 power curves per year
Lindoe Nacellte Testing will from 2014 operate with functional test.
Østerild Lindoe Nacelle Testing
http://www.lorc.dk/test-center/lorc-nacelle-testing-video
Offshore Wind Turbine Market
Barriers to Entry
• Time to market
• Technology
• Track record
Solutions available in Denmark
Talent
Talented suppliers, universities and
consultancy companies
Testing Facilities
Close relationship to experienced
developers
TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENT
Blade Test Centre A/S
OFFSHORE WINDPARKS INSTALLED FROM ESBJERG
25 September, 2014 AND THENTHERE ARE GRENAA (ANHOLT) AND NYBORG (NYSTED, RØDSAND II,LILLGRUND, BALTIC 1)
The Danish Wind Power Value Chain Represents an Attractive Cluster for Entry to the Northern European Offshore Market
Competetive Drivers
Market Position
Policy Support
Offshore Wind Market
R&D Centers and test faciities
Grid Integration Expertise
Specialized Education Wind
Power
Human Resources
Know How & Technology
CENTRAL LOCATION
FOR EUROPEAN MARKET
EXPERIENCED VALUE
CHAIN
EXCELLENT R&D CENTERS
We look forward to hearing from you
Europe
Paris +33 1 4431 2193
Munich +49 89 5458 54 0
London +44 207 333 0200
Istanbul +90 212 359 19 00
North America
New York +1 212 223 4545
Silicon Valley +1 650 543 3180
Toronto +1 416 962 5661
Asia-Pacific
Shanghai +86 21 6085 2000
Beijing +86 10 8532 9900
Tokyo +81 3 3496 3001
Bangalore +91 80 4248 9500
Seoul +82 0 2 795 4187
Taipei +886 2 2718 2101
Headquarters
Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Invest in Denmark, Copenhagen, + 45 33 92 11 16, [email protected]
[email protected] www.investindk.com
25 September, 2014 Peder Bo Sorensen, Invest in Denmark
NEW MARKET LOGIC
Key WTG Winners
• Cost of Energy focus
• Complete Power Plants
• Balance sheets to handle large orders
• Industrial relationships
• R&D Budgets
Key Attributes of Winning OEM
supplier
• Global footprints
• Strong foothold
• Strong Balance sheet
• Highly competitive pricing and cost
structures
• Ability to supply larger parts
• Commercial partnering
• Cost structures
OFFSHORE WIND TREND: CONSOLIDATION / ALLIANCES
25 September, 2014 Peder Bo Sorensen, Invest in Denmark
CONSOLIDATION IN THE VALUE CHAIN
25 September, 2014 Peder Bo Sorensen, Invest in Denmark
Pre -Assembly Turbine Installation Vessel
Turbine Installation High Voltage Grid
Connection
OFFSHORE PROJECTS IN DENMARK
25 September, 2014 Peder Bo Sorensen, Invest in Denmark
Kriegers Flak
Horns Rev 3
Frederikshavn
Mejlflak
Nissum Bredning
Omø Syd
Jammerland Bugt
25 September, 2014 Peder Bo Sorensen, Invest in Denmark
