Daniel Gay

Istanbul, 18 November 2008

Regional Report on Trade and Human Development in Central Asia

Regional Report on Trade and Human Development

in Central Asia

1. Process

2. Overview

3. Opportunities for trade

4. Trade and HD impact assessment

5. Conclusions and key recommendations

1. process

• Country studies were used for specific information and data.

• Secondary research conducted.

• Trade and HD Guide used simultaneously, while the Guide was being developed.

• Cross-country comparisons made.

2. Overview

Differences in economic growth…

  1990/93 2000 2005

 GDP per capita, 1990*

HDI (global rank),1993

GDP per capita*

HDI (global rank)

GDP per capita*

HDI (global rank)

Kazakhstan 4,716 54  4,378  73 7,857 73

Turkmenistan 4,230  66  2,317  98 3,838 109

Uzbekistan 3,115  80  2,550  100 2,063 113

Kyrgyzstan 3,114  83  2,053  106 1,927 116

Tajikistan 2,558  88  1,041 110  1,356 122

Human development index…

* PPP US$

Sources: UNDP, Human Development Report 1990-2007/2008 (Human Development Indicators).

… investment

2004 2005 2006 2007

Kazakhstan 4,157 1,971 6,224 10,259

Kyrgyzstan 175 43 182 208

Tajikistan 272 54 339 401

Turkmenistan 354 418 731 804

Uzbekistan 187 88 195 262

Russian Federation

15,444 12,886 32,387 52,475

… trade

2003 2004 2005

12,927 20,093 27,849

582 719 672

797 915 909

3,632 3,870 4939

3,189 4,280 4837

(US$m)

Sources: UNCTAD (2007,2008)

Incoming FDI, 2004-07 Exports, 2003-05 (US$m)

… and in doing business.

Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan Tajikistan Uzbekistan

Doing business rank

71 94 153 138

Starting a business

57 49 161 54

Trading across borders

178 177 176 165

Closing a business

100 128 99 119

Source: World Bank (2008)

… but across the region: • There are some similarities in the business environment• Trade facilitation is a challenge, particularly transport.

3. Trading opportunities

• The large number of regional and bilateral agreements have resulted in a ‘spaghetti bowl’ effect, leading to conflict and confusion.

• Multilateralism or greater regional coordination would help alleviate these concerns.

• Three sectors were chosen, each with the potential to alleviate poverty and contribute to human development.– Kazakhstan – textiles– Kyrgyzstan – agriculture and agricultural processing– Uzbekistan – textiles

4. Trade and hd impact assessment

• There is an uneven, but generally challenging HD situation across the region

• MDGs look unlikely uniformly to be reached• Poverty, health, environment and gender

problems remain.• Any progress is largely despite the absence of

pro-poor government policies; and is largely due to externally-driven economic growth.

• Better policy can help increase the contribution of trade to HD and mitigate its ill-effects.

The method in the Guide* was used to analyse some of the possible impacts of WTO accession on trade and HD:

• TRADE POLICY CHANGE AND EXPECTED EFFECTS

• TRANSMISSION CHANNELS • POST-ASSESSMENT CONSIDERATIONS

* Using UNDP Colombo (2008) ‘Human Development Impact Assessment of Trade’, 3 April draft

TRADE POLICY CHANGE AND EXPECTED EFFECTS

• Expected positive and negative effects• Who will gain or lose?

TRANSMISSION CHANNELS • Fiscal, prices, production• Institutional environment• Data and knowledge constraints

POST-ASSESSMENT CONSIDERATIONS• Monitoring and mitigation measures• Policy space

5. Conclusions and recommendations

General:• Explicitly target the mainstreaming of trade into

the development process.• Promote a broad-based dialogue on trade and

human development issues. • Improve data on trade and human development.

Trade-related• Conduct a systematic study of the ways in

which the effects of WTO accession might be channelled

• Harmonise existing regional trade agreements/ examine possibilities for multilateral liberalisation.

Human development• Continue to work towards the MDGs• Adopt a regional approach to health and

education• Continue to share lessons on gender• Specifically address labour mobility• Diversify into areas that improve HD• Address labour market issues

Regional organisations• Coordinate trade facilitation measures• Help regional integration of trade liberalisation• Improve the delivery and coordination of road

and rail transport infrastructure projects

THANK YOU

danielrgay@yahoo.co.uk

www.emergenteconomics.com