Two Billion Cars and California Climate Policy

Daniel Sperling, PhDProfessor of Civil Engineering and Environmental Science and Policy, Founding Director of the Institute of Transportation Studies, and acting Director of the Energy Efficiency Center at the University of California Davis (ITS-Davis)UC Davis

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Daniel Sperling, PhDProfessor of Civil Engineering and Environmental Science and Policy

Daniel Sperling* is Professor of Civil Engineering and Environmental Science and Policy, founding Director of the Institute of Transportation Studies, and acting director of the Energy Efficiency Center at the University of California, Davis (ITS-Davis). In February 2007, Governor Schwarzenegger appointed Dr. Sperling to the “automotive” seat on the California Air Resources Board. Dr. Sperling is recognized as a leading international expert on transportation technology assessment, energy and environmental aspects of transportation, and transportation policy. He is author or editor of 200 technical articles and 10 books – including the forthcoming Two Billion Cars (Oxford University Press, 2009) -- and has testified ten times to the US Congress and California Legislature on alternative fuels and advanced vehicle technology. He was “lead author” of the transportation chapter in the 2007 IPCC report, “Mitigation of Climate Change” and is a a recent member of eleven National Academies committees on transportation, energy, and climate topics, He was appointed co-chair of the Davos World Economic Forum’s Global Agenda Council on the Future of Mobility in 2008 and selected a National Associate of the National Academies in 2004; He earned his Ph.D. in Transportation Engineering from the University of California, Berkeley (with minors in Economics and Energy & Resources) and his B.S. in Environmental Engineering and Urban Planning from Cornell University. Professor Sperling worked two years as an environmental planner for the US Environmental Protection Agency and two years as an urban planner in the Peace Corps in Honduras.

Two Billion Cars and California Climate Policy:

Toward Kinder, Gentler Vehicles

Daniel SperlingUniversity of California, Davis

Member, California Air Resources Board

Clean Tech SummitSan Francisco, CA

November 19, 2008

Institute of Transportation StudiesUniversity of California, Davis

2 Billion Vehicles in 2020 (globally)!

Sperling and Gordon (2009), based on DOE, JAMA, other

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Trucks & BusesCars

In the next 10 years, the world will consume 1/4 of all the oil consumed through its entire history

Cumulative global oil production, 1950–2030

Sources: Sperling and Gordon (2009), based on U.S. DOE/EIA data

Source: International Energy Agency (IEA), "Resource To Reserves: The Oil Price Effect," Energy Prices & Taxes, 2nd Quarter 2006, Figure 1, pg. xix.

Oil Companies Shifting to High-Carbon “Unconventional” Oil Which Could Be Disastrous

Supply “Curve” of World Hydrocarbon Resources

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GHG (and Oil) Reduction is a Daunting ChallengeCalifornia GHG Emissions (MMTCO2e/yr)

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Historical Forecast Targets

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California’s GHG Plan

• Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006 (AB32) requires GHG reduction to 1990 levels by 2020 (~28% reduction from BAU forecast)

California Air Resources Board (CARB) assigned lead responsibility

• Governor’s executive order calls for 80% reduction by 2050

• GHG “Scoping Plan” to be adopted by CARB board Dec 2008

• In 2009-2011, CARB (and others) undertake rulemaking to enact 100+ specific measures (efficiency standards, cap and trade, etc)

• Rules take effect Jan 2012

California ‘dreamin’ “…in California, people used to write songs about T-Birds and Corvettes. Today they write regulations.” Bill Ford, Ford CEO, Aug 7, 2002

The California Model

• Stimulate innovation in technology, behavior, institutions

• Target specific GHG reductions with broad array of rules and incentives

Energy efficiency stds, Renewables Portfolio Standard, Low Carbon Fuel Standard, etc

• Overlay cap-and-trade program (and offsets) to create price signal for carbon and equilibrate costs across sectors (and gain additionalreductions)

• Strong partnerships -- with governments, industry, and NGOs to motivate action by individuals/orgs

• Roughly proportional reductions across all sectors (initially)

• Leverage co-benefitsreduced oil use, public health, greater travel choices, urban livability, economic development

Overall GHG Reduction Approach

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Reductionsfrom C&T

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Dashed line is 2020 target (427 MMT). Note ‘Regs Only’ do not achieve 2020 goal.

38% of GHG Emissions in California from Transport

Recycling/Waste, 1%

Res & Com, 9%High GWP, 3%

Agriculture, 6%

Industrial, 19%

Electricity (Imports), 12%

Electricity (In State), 11%

Transportation, 38%

California GHG Plan for Transport (CARB Board vote on Dec 12, 2008)

• Vehicles: ~40 MMT reduction by 2020 (from BAU)Pavley law for light duty vehicles: 31.7 MMT

• Reduce GHG/mile for new vehicles by 30% 2016, plus continuing reductions thereafter

• Complementary LDV rules: ZEV req’ts, plus possibly feebates, pay-as-you-drive insurance

Heavy Duty Vehicle Efficiency: 4.5 MMTCO2e• Tire inflation, low friction tires, low friction oil, aerodynamic trailers and cabs,

APUs, hybridization of medium duty and urban trucksGoods Movement: 3.7 MMT

• Ship electrification at ports, newer trucks (for AQ reasons)

• Fuels: 15 MMT reductionLow Carbon Fuel Standard (15 MMT)

• VMT: 6 MMT reductionUrban: 5 MMT High speed rail: 1 MMT

a wobbly 3-legged stool

Transforming FuelsLow carbon fuel standard (LCFS) will accelerate

transition to alt fuels and transform the oil industry• Future fuels will eventually be mix of biofuels, electricity and hydrogen• US: large biofuels mandate (36 billion gallons by 2022, but almost half

will be corn ethanol)• California: Low carbon fuel standard to be adopted March 2008 by

CARB BoardRequires 10% reduction in GHGs per MJ of energy by 2020 (which results in ~30% replacement of gasoline/diesel)Key lingering issue is how to handle land use effects of biofuels

• California: ZEV program supports use of electricity and hydrogen

Biofuels Hydrogen Electricity

Transforming Transportation (and Land Use) Transforming mobility and the transportation system is a

greater challenge than transforming vehicles and fuels. In the U.S., “sprawl is the law”.

• New law in California provides initial regulatory framework to reduce VKT (SB375): sets GHG targets for metropolitan regions

• Policy options: transport funding formulas, pay-as-you-go insurance, road pricing, land use reform, many local gov’tactions

• Expand traveler choice with smart paratransit, smart carpooling, tele-communications, NEVs, etc.

• Goods movement?

Transforming Transportation (and Land Use) Transforming mobility and the transportation system is a

greater challenge than transforming vehicles and fuels. In the U.S., “sprawl is the law”.

• New law in California provides initial regulatory framework to reduce VKT (SB375): sets GHG targets for metropolitan regions

• Policy options: transport funding formulas, pay-as-you-go insurance, road pricing, land use reform, many local gov’tactions

• Expand traveler choice with smart paratransit, smart carpooling, tele-communications, NEVs, etc.

• Goods movement?

Transforming VehiclesCars of future will be far more efficient and will be

powered mostly by electric-drive• Light Duty Vehicles

US: 40% improvement in fuel consumption by 2020 (35 mpg), plus tax credits for PHEVs, BEVs, FCVsCalifornia

• 30% improvement by 2016 (~37 mpg), and then ~44 mpg in 2020 (equivalent to ~135 gCO2/km)

• ZEV requirements: 58,000 PHEVs plus 7500 BEVs or 5000 FCVs in 2012-14. Plans to greatly increase requirements for 2015+

• EVs and some HEVs get access to HOV lanes, plus some preferential parking• Feebates and “pay-as-you-drive” insurance (?)

• Medium and Heavy Duty VehiclesUS: no initiatives, but plan to impose fuel standard for trucks within 10 yearsCalifornia: requirements being adopted to improve aerodynamics, use low-friction lubricants, hybridize some urban and short-haul trucks, use low-carbon APUs

Early version of Ford//Pivco BEV

DCX GEMs in Factory, 2002

BEV experiment of 1990s (and 1900s) largely failed …but led to improved batteries and electric drivetrains

which are now making comebacks in hybrids, fuel cell vehicles... and BEVs!

Pivco/Th!nk

Nissan

Toyota

GM EV1Bombardier

Honda

Vehicle Electrification is Inevitable• “Tom Stephens (Group VP of GM Powertrain), Rick

Wagoner (GM CEO), and I believe in the ultimate electrification of the automobile.”

GM Vice Chairman Bob Lutz, Nov 2006

• “Development and promotion of electric vehicles is -- from the standpoint of preserving the environment in the 21st century -- absolutely essential to Earth and to the human race...If we work together, we can make the 21st century the age of the electric vehicle...The creation of viable electric vehicles in some ways exemplifies the quest for sustainable development.”

Toyota Chairman Shoichiro Toyoda, October 1996

BEVs, PHEVs, FCVs• All will succeed, but at different times, in different

places, in different ways• BEVs will thrive in large cities (London, Paris),

isolated markets (Israel, Hawaii), polluted regions (Kathmandu, Chinese cities), areas with abundant low-carbon electricity (France)

Possibly could be mainstream vehicle eventually

• PHEVs and FCVs have potential to fully replace petroleum ICEs

Depends on progress of batteries, fuel cells, hydrogen supply, policyPotentially superior choice for both consumers and industry

Electric-drive vehicles will have strong consumer (and industry) appeal …

ZeroEmissions

On board electricityand new lifestyle uses

Vehicle to gridpower

Electric drive, feel

Mobile electronics, tools & appliances

Emergencyelectricity

New vehicle designs

A BETTER VEHICLE??

Prius Supplies Smart (Experimental) Toyota House With 36 Hours of Electricity

How Will BEVs and PHEVs Succeed?• From China? China sold 15 million electric bikes, scooters,

and motorcycles in 2007. Many e-bike manufacturers are moving up to e-cars.

?• Small BEVs built by Nissan/Renault, Mercedes, others• Blended PHEVs (2-6 kWh batteries with minimal “all-

electric-range”) (eg, plugged-in Prius)• Volt-type PHEV with large batteries and long AER (15 kWh

batteries)Note that Li-ion batteries now cost about $1000/kWh, but could eventually drop to

~$300/kWh

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Cautionary Note:Battery Progress is Impressive, but Next Generation Batteries are Still Expensive

LFP= lithium iron phosphate (cathode); LTO= lithium titanium oxide (anode); NCM= lithium (nickel, cobalt, manganese) (cathode)

The Future is Electric Drive Propulsion

Will we someday look back on combustion engines as crude, polluting technology?