Dan Cayan USGS Water Resources Discipline Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UC San Diego much...
-
Upload
aubrey-nicholas-jordan -
Category
Documents
-
view
215 -
download
0
Transcript of Dan Cayan USGS Water Resources Discipline Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UC San Diego much...
![Page 1: Dan Cayan USGS Water Resources Discipline Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UC San Diego much support from Mary Tyree, Mike Dettinger, Guido Franco.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062500/56649f295503460f94c435cc/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Dan Cayan USGS Water Resources Discipline
Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UC San Diego
much support from Mary Tyree, Mike Dettinger, Guido Franco and other colleagues
Sponsors: California Energy Commission NOAA RISA program California DWR, DOE, NSF
Planning for climate change in California substantial shifts on top of already high climate variability
Calit2 100G and Beyond UCSD 2/26/2013
![Page 2: Dan Cayan USGS Water Resources Discipline Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UC San Diego much support from Mary Tyree, Mike Dettinger, Guido Franco.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062500/56649f295503460f94c435cc/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Global to Regional Downscaling
GCMs ~150km downscaled toRegional models ~ 12km
Many simulationsIPCC AR4 and IPCC AR5 have been downscaledusing statistical methods
INCREASING VOLUME OF CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
in comparison to 4th IPCC (CMIP3) GCMs :
Latest generation CMIP5 models provide: more simulations higher spatial resolution more developed process representation daily output is more available
![Page 3: Dan Cayan USGS Water Resources Discipline Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UC San Diego much support from Mary Tyree, Mike Dettinger, Guido Franco.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062500/56649f295503460f94c435cc/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
average summer afternoon temperature
average summer afternoon temperature
3GFDL A2 1km downscaled to 1kmHugo Hidalgo Tapash Das Mike Dettinger
![Page 4: Dan Cayan USGS Water Resources Discipline Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UC San Diego much support from Mary Tyree, Mike Dettinger, Guido Franco.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062500/56649f295503460f94c435cc/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Temperature Change 14 GCMs X 3 RCP emissions Scenarios
IPCC 5th Assessment (CMIP5) models
Uncertainty is substantial in climate projections
![Page 5: Dan Cayan USGS Water Resources Discipline Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UC San Diego much support from Mary Tyree, Mike Dettinger, Guido Franco.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062500/56649f295503460f94c435cc/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
HOW MUCH CALIFORNIA SNOW LOSS ? Initial projections indicate substantial reduction
in snow water for Sierra Nevada+
declining Apr 1 SWE:2050 median SWE ~ 2/3 historical median2100 median SWE ~ 1/3 historical median