Dale W. Jorgenson (Harvard University) Koji …Dale W. Jorgenson (Harvard University) Koji Nomura...
20
Dale W. Jorgenson (Harvard University) Koji Nomura (Keio University) Jon D. Samuels (Bureau of Economic Analysis) The Third World KLEMS Conference Tokyo, Japan, May 19-20, 2014.
Transcript of Dale W. Jorgenson (Harvard University) Koji …Dale W. Jorgenson (Harvard University) Koji Nomura...
Dale W. Jorgenson (Harvard University)
Koji Nomura (Keio University)
Jon D. Samuels (Bureau of Economic Analysis)
The Third World KLEMS Conference Tokyo, Japan, May 19-20, 2014.
Consumption Tax
Output
1…n 1…n
Subsidies
Indirect Tax
Other Value added
outputIntermediate Demand Final Demand Export to
JP
Freight &
Insurance
US
Duties
China
Duties1
ｎ
…
JP US RoWJP US
……
(18 countries)
1
ｎ
…
1
ｎ
…
1
ｎ
…
1
ｎ
…
1
ｎ
…
SourcesTarget and
Classification
Price
Evaluation
Domestic goods
／Imports
Eurostat-OECD FD, ICP basic heading Purchaser inc. Imports
Energy Prices & Taxes (IEA)Coal, crude oil, LNG,
electricity, gasPurchaser Inc. Imports
Consumer Price Comparison
Survey (METI)
About 100 consumer
goods & servicesPurchaser inc. Imports
Intermediate Goods Price
Comparison Survey (METI)
About 200 products as
intermediate inputs
Purchaser
(Producer, partly)inc. Imports
PPP Survey Committee (METI) About 100 Products Producer Domestic
Transportation Service Price
(MLIT)Transportation Purchaser Domestic
Housing,Construction Price
(MLIT)Building & Const. Producer (Cost) Domestic
Foods and Restaurant
Price(MAFF)Foods and Restaurant Purchase inc. Imports
Mobile Phone Price （MPT） Communication Purchaser Domestic
Woods Products Price (MAFF) Woods Products Purchaser inc. Imports
Ppc(H)i
Ppdi
Ppc(H)i
Pdi
Ppc(I)i
Pdi
Pdi
Ppdi
Ppci
Ppc(I)i
Source: The PPP for GDP-Production Based is defined as a measure of trans-log index of industry-level PPPs for value
added. This is the first estimate based on the 2005 benchmark estimates of PPPs, which is calculated in May 2014 by
Nomura, Miyagawa, Shirane, and Okamoto at the RIETI Project.
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
(Average Exchange Rate)
（Japanese Yen/US Dollar）
PPP for GDP-Production Based
(Our Estimate)
PPP for GDP-Expenditure Based
(Eurostat-OECD)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
(Average Exchange Rate)
（Japanese Yen/US Dollar）
Energy
Material
Labor
Service
Output
Capital
Source: Our estimates in Jorgenson, Nomura, and Samuels (2014).
PPP for GDP-output based=116.5
PPP for GDP-expenditure based=129.6 (Eurostat-OECD)
Exchanger rate=110.2
3.9%
2.5%
1.7%
1.3%
1.1%
1.1%
0.8%
0.8%
0.5%
0.4%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
-0.1%
-0.1%
-0.2%
-0.2%
-0.2%
-0.3%
-0.4%
-0.5%
-0.6%
-0.6%
-0.8%
-1.4%
-4.6%
-6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4%
Industry Contribution
1.4
1.5
3.6
2.3
5.2
1.1
2.3
1.1
1.1
1.0
1.4
1.3
1.5
1.1
1.5
1.5
1.7
1.2
1.5
1.1
1.1
1.1
0.9
0.9
0.8
0.9
0.8
0.8
0.7
0.8
0.5
0.7
0.7
1.0
0.4
0.4
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
29.Wholesale and Retail
31.Real Estate
28.Electricity and Gas
4.Foods
12.Petroleum and Coal Products
36.Household
1.Agriculture, Forestry, Fishery
30.Finance and Insurance
3.Construction
35.Public Administration
15.Metal Products
10.Printing and Publishing
2.Mining
27.Communications
24.Air Transportation
8.Furniture and Fixture
6.Apparel and Leather Products
22.Rail Transportation
5.Textile
26.Other Trans and Storage
20.Other Transportation Equipment
23.Water Transportation
7.Woods and Related Products
13.Stone, Clay, Glass
9.Paper and Pulp
16.Machinery
21.Misc Manufacturing
11.Chemical Products
18.Electrical Equipment
32.Education
14.Primary Metal
17.Computer and Electronic Products
25.Road Transportation
34.Other Services
19.Motor Vehicles
33.Medical Care
Price Level Index for Value Added
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
U.S. Japan
(U.S. in 1955=1.0)
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Non-Mnf Mnf TFP Gap
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
TFP
Labor Quality Gap
Capital deepening
Labor Productivity Gap
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
TFP
Labor Quality Gap
Capital deepening
Capital Productivity Gap
4.1
1.2
0.6
0.4
0.3
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.2
-0.3
-0.3
-0.3
-0.5
-0.6
-0.7 -1.3
-1.3
-1.6
-1.6
-2.0
-2.0
-2.6
-4.6
-5 -3 -1 1 3 5
Industry Contribution
1.6
1.2
1.2
1.1
1.1
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
0.8
1.0
0.9
0.9
0.8
0.7
1.0
0.8
0.8
0.9
1.0
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.9
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
0.8
0.8
0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8
33.Medical Care
19.Motor Vehicles
32.Education
14.Primary Metal
27.Communications
17.Computer and Electronic Products
25.Road Transportation
18.Electrical Equipment
9.Paper and Pulp
23.Water Transportation
36.Household
7.Woods and Related Products
13.Stone, Clay, Glass
5.Textile
21.Misc Manufacturing
24.Air Transportation
20.Other Transportation Equipment
8.Furniture and Fixture
6.Apparel and Leather Products
16.Machinery
22.Rail Transportation
26.Other Trans and Storage
11.Chemical Products
35.Public Administration
2.Mining
10.Printing and Publishing
15.Metal Products
1.Agriculture, Forestry, Fishery
12.Petroleum and Coal Products
3.Construction
28.Electricity and Gas
4.Foods
30.Finance and Insurance
34.Other Services
31.Real Estate
29.Wholesale and Retail
TFP gap
4.6
1.2
1.1
0.7
0.2
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.2
-0.2
-0.2
-0.2
-0.4
-0.4
-0.5
-0.5
-0.5
-0.7
-0.7
-0.7
-0.7 -0.7
-0.9
-1.1
-1.6
-1.7
-2.1
-2.9
-6.1
-7 -5 -3 -1 1 3 5
Industry Contribution
1.6
1.2
1.5
1.2
1.0
1.1
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
0.9
0.8
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.8
0.9
0.9
0.8
0.8
0.7
1.0
0.8
0.8
1.0
0.8
0.9
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8
33.Medical Care
19.Motor Vehicles
32.Education
14.Primary Metal
36.Household
18.Electrical Equipment
27.Communications
25.Road Transportation
9.Paper and Pulp
20.Other Transportation Equipment
13.Stone, Clay, Glass
5.Textile
7.Woods and Related Products
6.Apparel and Leather Products
8.Furniture and Fixture
22.Rail Transportation
26.Other Trans and Storage
23.Water Transportation
24.Air Transportation
10.Printing and Publishing
21.Misc Manufacturing
11.Chemical Products
15.Metal Products
1.Agriculture, Forestry, Fishery
2.Mining
34.Other Services
12.Petroleum and Coal Products
16.Machinery
35.Public Administration
17.Computer and Electronic Products
3.Construction
28.Electricity and Gas
4.Foods
31.Real Estate
30.Finance and Insurance
29.Wholesale and Retail
TFP gap
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005
19.Motor Vehicles
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005
11.Chemical Products
(US)
(Japan)
0
5
10
15
20
25
1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005
17. Computer and Electronic Products
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005
14.Primary Metal
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005
18. Electrical Equipment
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005
16.Machinery
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005
29. Wholesale and Retail
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005
27.Communications
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005
30.Finance and Insurance
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005
3.Construction
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005
34. Other Service
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005
1.Agriculture, Forestry, Fishery(US)
(Japan)
(TFP Level in the U.S. in 1955=1.0)
