GLOBEC Synthesis from a Program Managers Perspective GLOBEC NWA SI Meeting June 22, 2004.
Dale Haidvogel Institute of Marine and Coastal Sciences Putting the “Globe” into U.S. GLOBEC New...
-
Upload
brittany-barber -
Category
Documents
-
view
215 -
download
0
Transcript of Dale Haidvogel Institute of Marine and Coastal Sciences Putting the “Globe” into U.S. GLOBEC New...
Dale HaidvogelInstitute of Marine and Coastal Sciences
Putting the “Globe” into U.S. GLOBEC
New Models and Methods in Support of Integrated Climate Research
Dale HaidvogelIMCS, Rutgers University
Dale HaidvogelInstitute of Marine and Coastal Sciences
Outline
1. U.S. GLOBEC as an example of new approaches to Integrated Climate Research
2. Requirements for Pan-Regional Synthesis
3. Status and skill of end-to-end systems
4. Next steps
Dale HaidvogelInstitute of Marine and Coastal Sciences
U.S. GLOBEC
The principal objective of U.S. GLOBEC research is to understand and predict the effects of global climate change on ocean
ecosystem dynamics
Dale HaidvogelInstitute of Marine and Coastal Sciences
U.S. GLOBEC Study Areas & Principal Target Species
Georges BankCopepods
Atlantic CodHaddock
Southern OceanKrill
California CurrentCopepods
EuphausiidsCoho Salmon
Chinook Salmon
Gulf of AlaskaCopepods
EuphausiidsPink Salmon
Dale HaidvogelInstitute of Marine and Coastal Sciences
U.S. GLOBEC Study Areas & Physical Processes
Georges BankStratification
Retention/LossCross-Front Exchange
Southern OceanStratification
Sea Ice DynamicsRetention/Loss
California CurrentStratification
Upwelling/DownwellingCross-Shelf Exchange
Gulf of AlaskaStratification
Buoyancy-Driven FlowDownwelling
Cross-Shelf Exchange
Dale HaidvogelInstitute of Marine and Coastal Sciences
Goals of U.S. GLOBEC Synthesis
• Undertake regional and pan-regional synthesis and comparisons among U.S. GLOBEC study locations and international programs to understand the impacts of climate change and variability on selected target species and marine ecosystems
• Integrate process-oriented, observational, and retrospective studies through conceptual and mathematical models
• Bridge the nested spatial/temporal scales of these GLOBEC program elements through modeling to understand climates-scale impacts
• Develop tools needed to predict the responses of populations and ecosystems to global climate change and climate variability
• Contribute to management of living marine resources in an ecosystem context
Dale HaidvogelInstitute of Marine and Coastal Sciences
U.S. GLOBEC Approach to Integrated Climate Research
Sea Ice
Individual-BasedPopulation
Models
ClimateModel
Mass BalanceNetwork Models
PreyFields
Dale HaidvogelInstitute of Marine and Coastal Sciences
Climate Model Biases
Dale HaidvogelInstitute of Marine and Coastal Sciences
ROMS NEP Grid (10 km) POP
SST (20 August 2000)
Dale HaidvogelInstitute of Marine and Coastal Sciences
Multi-scale modeling in the North Pacific
Dale HaidvogelInstitute of Marine and Coastal Sciences
Status of Three Regional Domains
Δx Now Next When?
NPac 0.18o 1958-1978
1978-2006
As time permits
NEP 10 km 1958-2004
Add tides
Soon
CCS 3 km 2000 2000-2004†
1-2 month
s
† Adjoint-based assimilation
Curchitser, Hedstrom, Powell, Hermann, Moore, Haidvogel
Dale HaidvogelInstitute of Marine and Coastal Sciences
Domain: 20 - 73N, 115 – 210E
ROMS: 226 x 642 x 42 gridpoints
Subdaily (6 hr) T42 CORE wind and fluxes (Large and Yeager)
Initial/boundary conditions provided by CCSM-POP hindcast model
Forward run for 1958-2004—includes multiple El Nino’s, regime shifts, and 2002 cold intrusion
Outputs: Daily averaged physical snapshots of velocity, temperature, etc.
NEP Implementation
Dale HaidvogelInstitute of Marine and Coastal Sciences
The 1976-77 Regime Shift SST Patterns
Fro
m S
chw
ing e
t al.
(20
02
)
Note: Left panel is May only; Right is Annual
1961-75
1978-96
-PDO
+PDO
Dale HaidvogelInstitute of Marine and Coastal Sciences
2000
1997
1998
7-8 July2000
Northward Velocity – Newport Line - July
Well defined core of California Under Current in 1997, 1998, 2000; close to slope
Dale HaidvogelInstitute of Marine and Coastal Sciences
2002
1999
9-11 July2002
Northward Velocity – Newport Line - July
Weaker, more diffuse California Under Current in 1999 & 2002; not adjacent to slope
Dale HaidvogelInstitute of Marine and Coastal Sciences
Next Steps
1. Fully integrate ROMS within CCSM (underway @ NCAR)
2. Demonstration in multiple physical settings (pilot projects)
3. Engage wider community (e.g., CLIVAR, IMBER) (conference)