DAILY REPORT · FX rates and money market FX rates on domestic market International markets...

Source:Bloomberg

Value Previous Change YTD Value Previous Change YTD

117.5845 117.5893 0.00% -0.52% 1.1854 1.1878 -0.20% 3.51%

98.9769 99.2985 -0.32% -4.27% 1.0774 1.0838 -0.59% -4.28%

109.0462 108.5072 0.50% 3.88% 0.8989 0.9022 -0.37% 3.47%

131.0718 129.9760 0.84% -0.08% 1.3188 1.3165 0.17% -3.47%Source: NBS 105.8500 105.7300 0.11% 0.05%

Source: Bloomberg

Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg

Value Next decision Value

1.25% 10.9.2020 0.00%

Deposit facility 0.25% 0.25%

Lending facility 2.25% 0.10%

Repo operations (one week) 0.23% -0.75%

Source: NBS Source: Bloomberg

20.8.2020 19.8.2020 Change (bps) 20.8.2020 19.8.2020 Change(bps)

0.25% 0.25% 0.00 -0.468% -0.468% 0.000

0.71% 0.71% 0.00 -0.553% -0.553% 0.000

1.02% 1.02% 0.00 -0.523% -0.519% -0.004

1.22% 1.22% 0.00 -0.491% -0.488% -0.003

Source: Reuters -0.444% -0.442% -0.002

Note: Values are with 1 day delay Source: Bloomberg, EBF

Note: Values are with 1 day delay

Value Previous Change (bps) Value Previous Change(bps)

0.183% 0.171% 0.012 -0.414% -0.428% 0.014

0.256% 0.247% 0.009 -0.371% -0.389% 0.018

0.299% 0.305% -0.006 -0.187% -0.210% 0.023

-0.784% -0.789% 0.005 1.079% 1.297% -0.218

-0.716% -0.716% 0.000 1.093% 1.284% -0.191

-0.664% -0.658% -0.006 1.220% 1.379% -0.159

Sources: ICE, Bloomberg Sources: IBA, Bloomberg

Libor 3M (CHF) USD ISDA 5Y FIXING


Libor 3M (USD) EURIBOR ISDA 5Y FIXING



BELIBOR 6M EURIBOR3M

Libor interest rates Interest rate Swap


BEONIA EONIA

BELIBOR1M

EURIBOR1MBELIBOR3M

EURIBOR6M

€STR

United Kingdom (BOE) 17.9.2020

Switzerland (SNB) 24.9.2020

Serbia - Interbank interest rates Serbia Europe - Interbank interest rates - Europe

Next decision

Key policy rate Eurozone (ECB) 10.9.2020

US (FED) 16.9.2020

GBP/RSD GBP/USD

USD/JPY

National Bank of Serbia Interest rates Major interest rates

EUR/RSD EUR/USD

USD/RSD EUR/CHF

CHF/RSD EUR/GBP

United States

FX rates and money market

FX rates on domestic market International markets

Currency Currency

Existing Homes Sales SAAR JUL 4.72 5.4

15:45Markit Manufacturing PMI

SAAUG P 50.9 52

Financial Market Analysis

Treausury and ALM department

DAILY REPORT

Flash

Dinar marginally changed against euro (117.5845).

Bank of the Group

August 21, 2020

Key events

Overall trading at the Belgrade Stock Exchange RSD 14.19 mln (EUR 120.68k). There was no bond trading.

Euro weakened against the dollar ($1.1854).

U.S. equities climbed, with tech powerhouses including Apple Inc. and Tesla Inc. driving the Nasdaq 100 to a new closing record and easing investor concern

over the pace of economic recovery. S&P 500 rose by 0.3%, Dow Jones up 0.2%, Nasdaq up 1.1%.

European equities slid in a broad retreat on Thursday after minutes from the Federal Reserve’s last meeting and U.S. unemployment data stoked concern

about the recovery in the world’s largest economy. Euro Stoxx 50 lost 1.3%, FTSE 100 lower 1.6%, DAX lost 1.1%, CAC 40 down 1.3%.

Oil lower (WTI $42.58 i Brent $44.9).

Gold lower ($1944.24).

TimeCountry/

RegionEvent Period Previous Forecast

16:00 United States

1

1.02

1.04

1.06

1.08

1.1

1.12

1.14

1.16

1.18

1.2EUR/USD

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

117

118

119

120

121

122EUR mio EUR/RSD

Turnover on FX market (right axis)

http://www.bancaintesa.rs/code/navigate.aspx?Id=1

Date Currency

25.8.2020 RSD

Source: Public Debt Management Agency

Moody's S&P Fitch

Ba3 BB+ BB+

Outlook Positive Positive Stable

Date 6.9.2019 13.12.2019 27.3.2020 Sources: Bloomberg, JPMorgan

Source: Bloomberg

Date Value Previous Date Value Previous

04.02.2016 2.75% 2.79% 21.05.2018 0.45% 0.47%

02.03.2017 2.64% 2.65% 28.04.2020 0.50% 0.49%

29.04.2020 1.79% 1.80% 23.10.2019 0.60% 1.15%

04.08.2020 1.95% 2.00% 18.03.2020 1.10% 1.48%

02.06.2020 2.15% 2.15% 11.06.2018 2.50%

21.07.2020 2.60% 2.60% 09.10.2019 1.89% 3.25%

05.11.2019 2.69% 3.40% 25.03.2020 1.89% 1.89%

07.08.2018 4.80% 4.85% 06.02.2019 3.60% 4.20%

18.08.2020 3.85% 3.85% 29.01.2020 3.00%

23.06.2016NBS key rate +

0.25%

NBS key rate +

0.25% Source: Public Debt Management Agency

Source: Public Debt Management Agency

Source: Public Debt Management Agency Source: Public debt Management Agency

Sources: Ministry of finance, Banca Intesa Sources: Ministry of finance, Banca Intesa

Rate Previous UST spread Rate Previous

Serbia 10y 2021 sep 1.293% 1.333% 1.165% US 10y 2021 avg 0.128% 0.131%


Rate Previous Bund spread Rate Previous

Serbia 7y 2027 may 1.966% 1.964% 2.644% Germany 7y 2027 feb -0.678% -0.661%

Serbia 10y 2029 jun 1.902% 1.903% 2.495% Germany 10y 2029 feb -0.593% -0.570%Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg

7 years

10 years

24 month amortizing

Serbia Eurobonds (USD)

15 years

20 years12 years

12 years

US Treasury Bonds

Serbia Eurobonds (EUR) German Bunds

2 years 5 years

3 years 7 years

5 years 10 years

Maturity

3 months 53 weeks

6 months 2 years

53 weeks 3 years

Maturity

RSD Government securities EUR Government securities

Instrument Value

Serbia Credit rating

5y government bond 5,000,000,000

Fixed income

Scheduled auctions

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350bps JP Morgan EMBI Srbija

1.52.53.54.55.56.57.58.59.5

10.511.512.513.514.5

Yields on RSD government securities primary auctions

3m 6m 53w 2y 3y NBS key rate 5y 7y 10y 12y

0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.55.05.56.06.57.0

Yields on EUR government securities primary auctions

2y 3y 5y 7y 10y 12y 15y 20y

2

Source: Belgrade Stock Exchange

Source: Belgrade Stock Exchange Source: Belgrade Stock Exchange

Sourc: Bloomberg

KMBN 2,450 9,224,250 1.24% 1.24% 0.52 4.91 11.13

MTLC 1,900 2,574,500 0.00% 0.05% 0.70 9.33 7.86

RMKS 2,250 1,158,750 -25.00% -25.00% 1.82 23.78 7.97

AERO 916 488,228 2.92% 3.97% 1.08 #N/A N/A -0.82

IMPL 3,700 444,000 0.00% 0.00% 0.51 10.10 #N/A N/A

Sources: Belgrade Stock Exchange; Bloombeg

0.14%

0.03%

0.31%

0.17%

-0.49%

Source: Bloomberg

crobex sbi20


sofix bet-c

Izvor: Bloomberg Izvor: Bloomberg


dj balkan

Source: Bloomberg

DJ Stoxx Balkan 50 Balkan 379.55 381.41 -24.77%

SOFIX Bugarska 435.81 434.46 -23.29%

BET Rumunija 8,702.02 8,687.24 -12.78%

Crobex Hrvatska 1,595.94 1,593.75 -20.89%

SBITOP Slovenija 861.98 861.69 -6.92%

Regional stock exchanges

Index Country/Region ValueValue from the previous

dayChange YTD

KOMERCIJALNA BANKA AD BEOGRA 41,203,992,200 Din.

METALAC AD GORNJI MILANOVAC 3,876,000,000 Din.

RIMEX AD BEOGRAD 300,795,750 Din.

AERODROM NIKOLA TESLA AD BEO 32,083,934,164 Din.

IMPOL SEVAL AD SEVOJNO 3,486,461,900 Din.

P/BV P/E ROE Market capitalization

The most traded stocks on Belgrade Stock Exchange from the previous day

Company Ticker Price RSDTurnover

RSD

Daily

change

Weekly

change

Ratios P / B P / EBelex15 0,61 8,22

Turnover 14,190,779 RSD 14,874,424 RSD -4.60%Source: Belgrade Stock Exchange

120,681 € 126,490 € -4.59%

Belex 15 680.10 670.04 1.50% -12.03%

Belex line 1,485.28 1,474.99 0.70% -7.20%

Belgrade Stock Exchange

Value Previous value Change YTD

1,350

1,450

1,550

1,650

1,750

1,850

1,950

2,050

2,150

CROBEX

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

SOFIX

6,500

7,000

7,500

8,000

8,500

9,000

9,500

10,000

10,500

BET

300

400

500

600DJ Stoxx Balkan 50

500

550

600

650

700

750

800

850 Belex 15

0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

1.24%

2.92%

3.39%

ENHL TGAS MTLC FITO JESV ALFA KMBN AERO NIIS

Daily change of Belex 15 members

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800Belex line

600

650

700

750

800

850

900

950

1,000

1,050

SBITOP

3

Source: Bloomberg

dow jones s&p



nasdaq dax



nikkei dj stoxx





Source: Bloomberg

Snežana Topalović 201-1400 Snežana Spasojević 201-3621Vladimir Gavović 201-1263 Dragomir Milin 201-3622Nikolina Guteša 201-1401 Biljana Radosavljević 201-3610Djordje Brkuljan 201-1263 [email protected]

[email protected]

Darko Karanović 201-3624

Boban Todorović 201-3627Dragan Ignja 201-3626

[email protected]

ContactFinancial Market analysis Customer execution office (fixed income)

Dealing

Disclaimer

This overview is written to inform and does not represent a call for making business decisions and buying or selling mentioned financial instruments. Banca Intesa ad Beograd does not guarantee exactness of summoned data.

Information, opinions and commentaries in this overview are given with the best intention according to available data provided from relevant sources and as a result of professional attitudes and orientations of analytical team working in

Banca Intesa ad Beograd. Banca Intesa ad Beograd does not assume responsibility for possible loss and damage caused by business activities according to any element and contents of the overview. This document may only be

reproduced in whole or in part together with the name of Banca Intesa Beograd.

Nikkei 225 Japan 22,880.62 23,110.61 -1.00% -3.28%

Dow Jones Stoxx 600 EU 365.64 369.58 -1.07% -12.14%

FTSE UK 6,013.34 6,111.98 -1.61% -20.74%

DAX Germany 12,830.00 12,977.33 -1.14% -3.16%

NASDAQ US 11,264.95 11,146.46 1.06% 25.92%

S&P 500 US 3,385.51 3,374.85 0.32% 5.10%

Dow Jones Industrial US 27,739.73 27,692.88 0.17% -2.54%

Index Country/Region Value Previous value Change YTD

World stock exchanges

18,000

19,000

20,000

21,000

22,000

23,000

24,000

25,000

26,000

27,000

28,000

29,000

30,000

31,000Dow Jones Industrial

2,200

2,300

2,400

2,500

2,600

2,700

2,800

2,900

3,000

3,100

3,200

3,300

3,400

3,500

S&P 500

5,800

6,800

7,800

8,800

9,800

10,800

11,800NASDAQ Composite

250

270

290

310

330

350

370

390

410

430

450DJ Stoxx 600

16,000

17,000

18,000

19,000

20,000

21,000

22,000

23,000

24,000

25,000

Nikkei 225

\

8,000

9,000

10,000

11,000

12,000

13,000

14,000

15,000DAX

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80Oil Brent (USD/bbl)

1,100

1,300

1,500

1,700

1,900

2,100

2,300Gold

\

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50 Vix Index

4

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DAILY REPORT · FX rates and money market FX rates on domestic market International markets...

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