DAILY REPORT...Date Currency 21.4.2020 RSD 28.4.2020 EUR Source: Public Debt Management Agency...
4
Source: Daily FX Value Previous Change YTD Value Previous Change YTD 117.5860 117.5631 0.02% -0.51% 1.0896 1.0802 0.87% -4.86% 108.1549 108.5933 -0.40% 4.61% 1.0577 1.0558 0.18% -6.03% 111.3188 111.2234 0.09% 6.04% 0.8832 0.8778 0.61% -3.20% 133.2419 133.3066 -0.05% 1.57% 1.2338 1.2306 0.26% -0.75% Source: NBS 108.8400 109.0200 -0.17% -1.70% Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg Value Next decision Value 1.75% 9.4.2020 0.00% Deposit facility 0.75% 0.25% Lending facility 2.75% 0.10% Repo operations (one week) 0.85% -0.75% Source: NBS Source: Bloomberg 7.4.2020 6.4.2020 Change (bps) 7.4.2020 6.4.2020 Change(bps) 0.85% 0.85% 0.00 -0.448% -0.448% 0.000 1.07% 1.07% 0.00 -0.533% -0.533% 0.000 1.34% 1.33% 0.01 -0.406% -0.431% 0.025 1.50% 1.50% 0.00 -0.293% -0.318% 0.025 Source: Reuters -0.232% -0.253% 0.021 Note: Values are with 1 day delay Source: Bloomberg, EBF Note: Values are with 1 day delay Value Previous Change (bps) Value Previous Change(bps) 0.864% 0.921% -0.058 -0.296% -0.270% -0.026 1.320% 1.352% -0.033 -0.232% -0.216% -0.016 1.225% 1.238% -0.014 -0.041% -0.009% -0.032 -0.744% -0.730% -0.014 1.079% 1.297% -0.218 -0.603% -0.604% 0.001 1.093% 1.284% -0.191 -0.538% -0.529% -0.009 1.220% 1.379% -0.159 Sources: ICE, Bloomberg Sources: IBA, Bloomberg Libor 3M (CHF) USD ISDA 5Y FIXING Libor 6M (CHF) USD ISDA 10Y FIXING Libor 3M (USD) EURIBOR ISDA 5Y FIXING Libor 6M (USD) EURIBOR ISDA 10Y FIXING Libor 1M (CHF) USD ISDA 3Y FIXING BELIBOR 6M EURIBOR3M Libor interest rates Interest rate Swap Libor 1M (USD) EURIBOR ISDA 3Y FIXING BEONIA EONIA BELIBOR1M EURIBOR1M BELIBOR3M EURIBOR6M €STR United Kingdom (BOE) 7.5.2020 Switzerland (SNB) 18.6.2020 Serbia - Interbank interest rates Serbia Europe - Interbank interest rates - Europe Next decision Key policy rate Eurozone (ECB) 30.4.2020 US (FED) 29.4.2020 GBP/RSD GBP/USD USD/JPY National Bank of Serbia Interest rates Major interest rates EUR/RSD EUR/USD USD/RSD EUR/CHF CHF/RSD EUR/GBP FX rates and money market FX rates on domestic market International markets Currency Currency MBA Mortgage Applications Apr 3 15.3% -- Key events Time Country/ Region Event Period Previous Forecast 13:00 US Overall trading at the Belgrade Stock Exchange RSD 20.4 mln (EUR 173.8k). There was no bond trading. Euro streghtned against the dollar ($1.0896). U.S. equities rose for the second day amid signs the virus was reaching its peak in several economies, before giving up those gains to end the day lower, after both New York and the U.K. reported a jump in daily deaths. S&P 500 down 0.2%, Dow Jones lost 0.1%, Nasdaq lost 0.3%. European stocks surged for a second session in a row, boosted by signs that the coronavirus outbreak in Europe may be close to a peak. Euro Stoxx 50 up 2.2%, FTSE 100 up 2.2%, DAX up 2.8%, CAC 40 up 2.1%. Oil lower (WTI $23.63 and Brent $31.87). Gold little changed ($1652.09). Financial Market Analysis Treausury and ALM department DAILY REPORT Flash Dinar marginally changed against euro (117.5631). Bank of the Group April 8, 2020 1 1.02 1.04 1.06 1.08 1.1 1.12 1.14 EUR/USD 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 117 118 119 120 121 122 EUR mio EUR/RSD Turnover on FX market (right axis)
Transcript of DAILY REPORT...Date Currency 21.4.2020 RSD 28.4.2020 EUR Source: Public Debt Management Agency...
Source: Daily FX
Value Previous Change YTD Value Previous Change YTD
117.5860 117.5631 0.02% -0.51% 1.0896 1.0802 0.87% -4.86%
108.1549 108.5933 -0.40% 4.61% 1.0577 1.0558 0.18% -6.03%
111.3188 111.2234 0.09% 6.04% 0.8832 0.8778 0.61% -3.20%
133.2419 133.3066 -0.05% 1.57% 1.2338 1.2306 0.26% -0.75%Source: NBS 108.8400 109.0200 -0.17% -1.70%
Source: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg
Value Next decision Value
1.75% 9.4.2020 0.00%
Deposit facility 0.75% 0.25%
Lending facility 2.75% 0.10%
Repo operations (one week) 0.85% -0.75%
Source: NBS Source: Bloomberg
7.4.2020 6.4.2020 Change (bps) 7.4.2020 6.4.2020 Change(bps)
0.85% 0.85% 0.00 -0.448% -0.448% 0.000
1.07% 1.07% 0.00 -0.533% -0.533% 0.000
1.34% 1.33% 0.01 -0.406% -0.431% 0.025
1.50% 1.50% 0.00 -0.293% -0.318% 0.025
Source: Reuters -0.232% -0.253% 0.021
Note: Values are with 1 day delay Source: Bloomberg, EBF
Note: Values are with 1 day delay
Value Previous Change (bps) Value Previous Change(bps)
0.864% 0.921% -0.058 -0.296% -0.270% -0.026
1.320% 1.352% -0.033 -0.232% -0.216% -0.016
1.225% 1.238% -0.014 -0.041% -0.009% -0.032
-0.744% -0.730% -0.014 1.079% 1.297% -0.218
-0.603% -0.604% 0.001 1.093% 1.284% -0.191
-0.538% -0.529% -0.009 1.220% 1.379% -0.159
Sources: ICE, Bloomberg Sources: IBA, Bloomberg
Libor 3M (CHF) USD ISDA 5Y FIXING
Libor 6M (CHF) USD ISDA 10Y FIXING
Libor 3M (USD) EURIBOR ISDA 5Y FIXING
Libor 6M (USD) EURIBOR ISDA 10Y FIXING
Libor 1M (CHF) USD ISDA 3Y FIXING
BELIBOR 6M EURIBOR3M
Libor interest rates Interest rate Swap
Libor 1M (USD) EURIBOR ISDA 3Y FIXING
BEONIA EONIA
BELIBOR1M
EURIBOR1MBELIBOR3M
EURIBOR6M
€STR
United Kingdom (BOE) 7.5.2020
Switzerland (SNB) 18.6.2020
Serbia - Interbank interest rates Serbia Europe - Interbank interest rates - Europe
Next decision
Key policy rate Eurozone (ECB) 30.4.2020
US (FED) 29.4.2020
GBP/RSD GBP/USD
USD/JPY
National Bank of Serbia Interest rates Major interest rates
EUR/RSD EUR/USD
USD/RSD EUR/CHF
CHF/RSD EUR/GBP
FX rates and money market
FX rates on domestic market International markets
Currency Currency
MBA Mortgage Applications Apr 3 15.3% --
Key events
TimeCountry/
RegionEvent Period Previous Forecast
13:00 US
Overall trading at the Belgrade Stock Exchange RSD 20.4 mln (EUR 173.8k). There was no bond trading.
Euro streghtned against the dollar ($1.0896).
U.S. equities rose for the second day amid signs the virus was reaching its peak in several economies, before giving up those gains to end the day lower, after
both New York and the U.K. reported a jump in daily deaths. S&P 500 down 0.2%, Dow Jones lost 0.1%, Nasdaq lost 0.3%.
European stocks surged for a second session in a row, boosted by signs that the coronavirus outbreak in Europe may be close to a peak. Euro Stoxx 50 up
2.2%, FTSE 100 up 2.2%, DAX up 2.8%, CAC 40 up 2.1%.
Oil lower (WTI $23.63 and Brent $31.87).
Gold little changed ($1652.09).
Financial Market Analysis
Treausury and ALM department
DAILY REPORT
Flash
Dinar marginally changed against euro (117.5631).
Bank of the Group
April 8, 2020
1
1.02
1.04
1.06
1.08
1.1
1.12
1.14
EUR/USD
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
117
118
119
120
121
122EUR mio EUR/RSD
Turnover on FX market (right axis)
Date Currency
21.4.2020 RSD
28.4.2020 EUR
Source: Public Debt Management Agency
Moody's S&P Fitch
Ba3 BB+ BB+
Outlook Positive Positive Stable
Date 6.9.2019 13.12.2019 27.3.2020 Sources: Bloomberg, JPMorgan
Source: Bloomberg
Date Value Previous Date Value Previous
04.02.2016 2.75% 2.79% 21.05.2018 0.45% 0.47%
02.03.2017 2.64% 2.65% 12.02.2020 0.49% 0.84%
07.02.2017 3.48% 3.49% 23.10.2019 0.60% 1.15%
24.10.2017 4.05% 4.65% 18.03.2020 1.10% 1.48%
02.04.2020 2.15% 3.39% 11.06.2018 2.50%
04.02.2020 2.60% 2.60% 09.10.2019 1.89% 3.25%
05.11.2019 2.69% 3.40% 25.03.2020 1.89% 1.89%
07.08.2018 4.80% 4.85% 06.02.2019 3.60% 4.20%
10.03.2020 3.35% 3.40% 29.01.2020 3.00%
23.06.2016NBS key rate +
0.25%
NBS key rate +
0.25% Source: Public Debt Management Agency
Source: Public Debt Management Agency
Source: Public Debt Management Agency Source: Public debt Management Agency
Sources: Ministry of finance, Banca Intesa Sources: Ministry of finance, Banca Intesa
Vrednost Prethodna UST spred
Serbia 10y 2021 3.957% 3.946% 3.957%
Srbija 10g 2029 2.688% 2.679%Source: Bloomberg
Izvor: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg
7 years
10 years
24 month amortizing
Serbian Eurobonds yields (USD)
15 years
20 years12 years
12 years
2 years 5 years
3 years 7 years
5 years 10 years
Maturity
3 months 53 weeks
6 months 2 years
53 weeks 3 years
Maturity
RSD Government securities EUR Government securities
Instrument Value
Serbia Credit rating
5yr government bond 10,000,000,000
2yr government bond 40,145,000
Fixed income
Scheduled auctions
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350bps JP Morgan EMBI Srbija
0.8
1.3
1.8
2.3
2.8
89
91
93
95
97
99
101
103
105
Serbian 10y Eurobond 2029
Price Yield (right axis)
1.52.53.54.55.56.57.58.59.5
10.511.512.513.514.5
Yields on RSD government securities primary auctions
3m 6m 53w 2y 3y NBS key rate 5y 7y 10y 12y
0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.55.05.56.06.57.0
Yields on EUR government securities primary auctions
2y 3y 5y 7y 10y 12y 15y 20y
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
0 180 360 540 720 900 1080 1260 1440 1620 1800
EUR yield curve
Interpolation T-bills
1
1
2
2
3
3
4
4
0 180 360 540 720 900 1080 1260 1440 1620 1800 1980 2160 2340 2520
RSD yield curve
Interpolation T-bills
2
Source: Belgrade Stock Exchange
Source: Belgrade Stock Exchange Source: Belgrade Stock Exchange
Sourc: Bloomberg
JMBN 5,105 5,150,945 0.00% 0.00% 0.42 23.53 1.81
TRBG 4,200 4,565,400 0.26% 0.26% 1.69 11.25 16.26
NIIS 579 999,354 0.70% 6.63% 0.37 5.69 6.67
KMBN 2,548 3,263,988 0.75% 0.71% 0.60 5.11 12.09
JESV 6,000 2,100,000 3.45% 3.45% 0.36 10.62 3.50
TGAS 12,574 1,219,678 6.56% 6.56% 0.66 6.27 11.05
GFOM 340 72,420 9.68% 9.68% 0.32 7.82 2.29
DNOS 3,000 27,000 0.00% 0.00% 1.00 12.02 18.04
AERO 900 24,300 0.00% 0.00% 0.39 0.59 95.94
FITO 2,550 5,100 0.00% 0.00% 0.89 8.97 10.26
Sources: Belgrade Stock Exchange; Bloombeg
1.00%
6.11%
1.31%
4.07%
2.82%
Source: Bloomberg
crobex sbi20
Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg
sofix bet-c
Izvor: Bloomberg Izvor: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg
dj balkan
Source: Bloomberg
DJ Stoxx Balkan 50 Balkan 378.19 367.83 -19.68%
SOFIX Bugarska 433.39 427.78 -36.03%
BET Rumunija 8,020.15 7,706.49 3.44%
Crobex Hrvatska 1,596.93 1,581.19 -13.35%
SBITOP Slovenija 780.64 735.66 -3.21%
Regional stock exchanges
Index Country/Region ValueValue from the previous
dayChange YTD
GALENIKA FITOFARMACIJA AD 6,732,000,000 Din.
GOSA FOM A.D. SMEDEREVSKA PA 465,461,020 Din.
DUNAV OSIGURANJE AD 12,678,363,000 Din.
AERODROM NIKOLA TESLA AD BEO 31,523,516,100 Din.
KOMERCIJALNA BANKA AD BEOGRA 42,852,151,888 Din.
JEDINSTVO SEVOJNO AD 1,664,238,000 Din.
MESSER TEHNOGAS AD 13,034,937,692 Din.
JUBMES BANKA AD BEOGRAD 1,471,924,650 Din.
TERMIKA AD BEOGRAD 255,880,800 Din.
NIS AD NOVI SAD 94,411,971,600 Din.
P/BV P/E ROE Market capitalization
The most traded stocks on Belgrade Stock Exchange from the previous day
Company Ticker Price RSDTurnovor
RSD
Daily
change
Weekly
change
Ratios P / B P / EBelex15 0,52 2,02
Turnover 20,442,571 RSD 10,293,773 RSD 98.59%Source: Belgrade Stock Exchange
173,886 € 87,586 € 98.53%
Belex 15 672.38 664.25 1.22% -12.79%
Belex line 1,482.88 1,467.74 1.03% -7.65%
Belgrade Stock Exchange
Value Previous value Change YTD
1,550
1,650
1,750
1,850
1,950
2,050
2,150
CROBEX
450
500
550
600
650
700
SOFIX
6,500
7,000
7,500
8,000
8,500
9,000
9,500
10,000
10,500
BET
300
400
500
600DJ Stoxx Balkan 50
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
850 Belex 15
0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.70% 0.75%
3.45%
6.56%
AERO ENHL MTLC FITO ALFA NIIS KMBN JESV TGAS
Daily change of Belex 15 members
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800Belex line
700
750
800
850
900
950
1,000
SBITOP
3
Source: Bloomberg
dow jones s&p
Izvor: Bloomberg Izvor: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg
nasdaq dax
Izvor: Bloomberg Izvor: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg
nikkei dj stoxx
Izvor: Bloomberg Izvor: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg
Izvor: Bloomberg Izvor: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg
Snežana Topalović 201-1400 Snežana Spasojević 201-3621Vladimir Gavović 201-1263 Dragomir Milin 201-3622Nikolina Guteša 201-1400 Biljana Radosavljević [email protected] [email protected]
Darko Karanović 201-3624
Boban Todorović 201-3627Dragan Ignja 201-3626
ContactFinancial Market analysis Customer execution office (fixed income)
Dealing
Disclaimer
This overview is written to inform and does not represent a call for making business decisions and buying or selling mentioned financial instruments. Banca Intesa ad Beograd does not guarantee exactness of summoned data.
Information, opinions and commentaries in this overview are given with the best intention according to available data provided from relevant sources and as a result of professional attitudes and orientations of analytical team working in
Banca Intesa ad Beograd. Banca Intesa ad Beograd does not assume responsibility for possible loss and damage caused by business activities according to any element and contents of the overview. This document may only be
reproduced in whole or in part together with the name of Banca Intesa Beograd.
Nikkei 225 Japan 18,950.18 18,576.30 2.01% -16.76%
Dow Jones Stoxx 600 EU 326.61 320.58 1.88% -16.08%
FTSE UK 5,704.45 5,582.39 2.19% -25.80%
DAX Germany 10,356.70 10,075.17 2.79% -19.83%
NASDAQ US 7,887.26 7,913.24 -0.33% 14.25%
S&P 500 US 2,659.41 2,663.68 -0.16% -0.53%
Dow Jones Industrial US 22,653.86 22,679.99 -0.12% -8.36%
Index Country/Region Value Previous value Change YTD
World stock exchanges
20,000
21,000
22,000
23,000
24,000
25,000
26,000
27,000
28,000
29,000
30,000
31,000Dow Jones Industrial
2,200
2,300
2,400
2,500
2,600
2,700
2,800
2,900
3,000
3,100
3,200
3,300
3,400
3,500
S&P 500
5,8006,0006,2006,4006,6006,8007,0007,2007,4007,6007,8008,0008,2008,4008,6008,8009,0009,2009,4009,6009,800
10,00010,200
NASDAQ Composite
320
340
360
380
400
420
440DJ Stoxx 600
17,000
18,000
19,000
20,000
21,000
22,000
23,000
24,000
25,000
Nikkei 225
\
10,000
11,000
12,000
13,000
14,000DAX
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80Oil Brent (USD/bbl)
1,100
1,200
1,300
1,400
1,500
1,600
1,700
1,800Gold
\
5
15
25
35
45
55
65
75
85
95 Vix Index
4
