DAILY REPORT ... Date Currency 21.4.2020 RSD 28.4.2020 EUR Source: Public Debt Management Agency...

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Transcript of DAILY REPORT ... Date Currency 21.4.2020 RSD 28.4.2020 EUR Source: Public Debt Management Agency...

  • Source: Daily FX

    Value Previous Change YTD Value Previous Change YTD

    117.5860 117.5631 0.02% -0.51% 1.0896 1.0802 0.87% -4.86%

    108.1549 108.5933 -0.40% 4.61% 1.0577 1.0558 0.18% -6.03%

    111.3188 111.2234 0.09% 6.04% 0.8832 0.8778 0.61% -3.20%

    133.2419 133.3066 -0.05% 1.57% 1.2338 1.2306 0.26% -0.75% Source: NBS 108.8400 109.0200 -0.17% -1.70%

    Source: Bloomberg

    Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg

    Value Next decision Value

    1.75% 9.4.2020 0.00%

    Deposit facility 0.75% 0.25%

    Lending facility 2.75% 0.10%

    Repo operations (one week) 0.85% -0.75%

    Source: NBS Source: Bloomberg

    7.4.2020 6.4.2020 Change (bps) 7.4.2020 6.4.2020 Change(bps)

    0.85% 0.85% 0.00 -0.448% -0.448% 0.000

    1.07% 1.07% 0.00 -0.533% -0.533% 0.000

    1.34% 1.33% 0.01 -0.406% -0.431% 0.025

    1.50% 1.50% 0.00 -0.293% -0.318% 0.025

    Source: Reuters -0.232% -0.253% 0.021

    Note: Values are with 1 day delay Source: Bloomberg, EBF

    Note: Values are with 1 day delay

    Value Previous Change (bps) Value Previous Change(bps)

    0.864% 0.921% -0.058 -0.296% -0.270% -0.026

    1.320% 1.352% -0.033 -0.232% -0.216% -0.016

    1.225% 1.238% -0.014 -0.041% -0.009% -0.032

    -0.744% -0.730% -0.014 1.079% 1.297% -0.218

    -0.603% -0.604% 0.001 1.093% 1.284% -0.191

    -0.538% -0.529% -0.009 1.220% 1.379% -0.159

    Sources: ICE, Bloomberg Sources: IBA, Bloomberg

    Libor 3M (CHF) USD ISDA 5Y FIXING

    Libor 6M (CHF) USD ISDA 10Y FIXING

    Libor 3M (USD) EURIBOR ISDA 5Y FIXING

    Libor 6M (USD) EURIBOR ISDA 10Y FIXING

    Libor 1M (CHF) USD ISDA 3Y FIXING

    BELIBOR 6M EURIBOR3M

    Libor interest rates Interest rate Swap

    Libor 1M (USD) EURIBOR ISDA 3Y FIXING

    BEONIA EONIA

    BELIBOR1M

    EURIBOR1MBELIBOR3M

    EURIBOR6M

    €STR

    United Kingdom (BOE) 7.5.2020

    Switzerland (SNB) 18.6.2020

    Serbia - Interbank interest rates Serbia Europe - Interbank interest rates - Europe

    Next decision

    Key policy rate Eurozone (ECB) 30.4.2020 US (FED) 29.4.2020

    GBP/RSD GBP/USD

    USD/JPY

    National Bank of Serbia Interest rates Major interest rates

    EUR/RSD EUR/USD

    USD/RSD EUR/CHF

    CHF/RSD EUR/GBP

    FX rates and money market

    FX rates on domestic market International markets

    Currency Currency

    MBA Mortgage Applications Apr 3 15.3% --

    Key events

    Time Country/

    Region Event Period Previous Forecast

    13:00 US

    Overall trading at the Belgrade Stock Exchange RSD 20.4 mln (EUR 173.8k). There was no bond trading.

    Euro streghtned against the dollar ($1.0896).

    U.S. equities rose for the second day amid signs the virus was reaching its peak in several economies, before giving up those gains to end the day lower, after

    both New York and the U.K. reported a jump in daily deaths. S&P 500 down 0.2%, Dow Jones lost 0.1%, Nasdaq lost 0.3%.

    European stocks surged for a second session in a row, boosted by signs that the coronavirus outbreak in Europe may be close to a peak. Euro Stoxx 50 up

    2.2%, FTSE 100 up 2.2%, DAX up 2.8%, CAC 40 up 2.1%.

    Oil lower (WTI $23.63 and Brent $31.87).

    Gold little changed ($1652.09).

    Financial Market Analysis

    Treausury and ALM department

    DAILY REPORT

    Flash

    Dinar marginally changed against euro (117.5631).

    Bank of the Group

    April 8, 2020

    1

    1.02

    1.04

    1.06

    1.08

    1.1

    1.12

    1.14

    EUR/USD

    0

    10

    20

    30

    40

    50

    60

    70

    80

    117

    118

    119

    120

    121

    122 EUR mio EUR/RSD

    Turnover on FX market (right axis)

    http://www.bancaintesa.rs/code/navigate.aspx?Id=1

  • Date Currency

    21.4.2020 RSD

    28.4.2020 EUR

    Source: Public Debt Management Agency

    Moody's S&P Fitch

    Ba3 BB+ BB+

    Outlook Positive Positive Stable

    Date 6.9.2019 13.12.2019 27.3.2020 Sources: Bloomberg, JPMorgan

    Source: Bloomberg

    Date Value Previous Date Value Previous

    04.02.2016 2.75% 2.79% 21.05.2018 0.45% 0.47%

    02.03.2017 2.64% 2.65% 12.02.2020 0.49% 0.84%

    07.02.2017 3.48% 3.49% 23.10.2019 0.60% 1.15%

    24.10.2017 4.05% 4.65% 18.03.2020 1.10% 1.48%

    02.04.2020 2.15% 3.39% 11.06.2018 2.50%

    04.02.2020 2.60% 2.60% 09.10.2019 1.89% 3.25%

    05.11.2019 2.69% 3.40% 25.03.2020 1.89% 1.89%

    07.08.2018 4.80% 4.85% 06.02.2019 3.60% 4.20%

    10.03.2020 3.35% 3.40% 29.01.2020 3.00%

    23.06.2016 NBS key rate +

    0.25%

    NBS key rate +

    0.25% Source: Public Debt Management Agency

    Source: Public Debt Management Agency

    Source: Public Debt Management Agency Source: Public debt Management Agency

    Sources: Ministry of finance, Banca Intesa Sources: Ministry of finance, Banca Intesa

    Vrednost Prethodna UST spred

    Serbia 10y 2021 3.957% 3.946% 3.957%

    Srbija 10g 2029 2.688% 2.679% Source: Bloomberg

    Izvor: Bloomberg

    Source: Bloomberg

    7 years

    10 years

    24 month amortizing

    Serbian Eurobonds yields (USD)

    15 years

    20 years12 years

    12 years

    2 years 5 years

    3 years 7 years

    5 years 10 years

    Maturity

    3 months 53 weeks

    6 months 2 years

    53 weeks 3 years

    Maturity

    RSD Government securities EUR Government securities

    Instrument Value

    Serbia Credit rating

    5yr government bond 10,000,000,000

    2yr government bond 40,145,000

    Fixed income

    Scheduled auctions

    0

    50

    100

    150

    200

    250

    300

    350 bps JP Morgan EMBI Srbija

    0.8

    1.3

    1.8

    2.3

    2.8

    89

    91

    93

    95

    97

    99

    101

    103

    105

    Serbian 10y Eurobond 2029

    Price Yield (right axis)

    1.5 2.5 3.5 4.5 5.5 6.5 7.5 8.5 9.5

    10.5 11.5 12.5 13.5 14.5

    Yields on RSD government securities primary auctions

    3m 6m 53w 2y 3y NBS key rate 5y 7y 10y 12y

    0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0

    Yields on EUR government securities primary auctions

    2y 3y 5y 7y 10y 12y 15y 20y

    0.0

    0.2

    0.4

    0.6

    0.8

    1.0

    1.2

    1.4

    0 180 360 540 720 900 1080 1260 1440 1620 1800

    EUR yield curve

    Interpolation T-bills

    1

    1

    2

    2

    3

    3

    4

    4

    0 180 360 540 720 900 1080 1260 1440 1620 1800 1980 2160 2340 2520

    RSD yield curve

    Interpolation T-bills

    2

  • Source: Belgrade Stock Exchange

    Source: Belgrade Stock Exchange Source: Belgrade Stock Exchange

    Sourc: Bloomberg

    JMBN 5,105 5,150,945 0.00% 0.00% 0.42 23.53 1.81

    TRBG 4,200 4,565,400 0.26% 0.26% 1.69 11.25 16.26

    NIIS 579 999,354 0.70% 6.63% 0.37 5.69 6.67

    KMBN 2,548 3,263,988 0.75% 0.71% 0.60 5.11 12.09

    JESV 6,000 2,100,000 3.45% 3.45% 0.36 10.62 3.50

    TGAS 12,574 1,219,678 6.56% 6.56% 0.66 6.27 11.05

    GFOM 340 72,420 9.68% 9.68% 0.32 7.82 2.29

    DNOS 3,000 27,000 0.00% 0.00% 1.00 12.02 18.04

    AERO 900 24,300 0.00% 0.00% 0.39 0.59 95.94

    FITO 2,550 5,100 0.00% 0.00% 0.89 8.97 10.26

    Sources: Belgrade Stock Exchange; Bloombeg

    1.00%

    6.11%

    1.31%

    4.07%

    2.82%

    Source: Bloomberg

    crobex sbi20

    Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg

    sofix bet-c

    Izvor: Bloomberg Izvor: Bloomberg

    Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg

    dj balkan

    Source: Bloomberg

    DJ Stoxx Balkan 50 Balkan 378.19 367.83 -19.68%

    SOFIX Bugarska 433.39 427.78 -36.03%

    BET Rumunija 8,020.15 7,706.49 3.44%

    Crobex Hrvatska 1,596.93 1,581.19 -13.35%

    SBITOP Slovenija 780.64 735.66 -3.21%

    Regional stock exchanges

    Index Country/Region Value Value from the previous

    day Change YTD

    GALENIKA FITOFARMACIJA AD 6,732,000,000 Din.

    GOSA FOM A.D. SMEDEREVSKA PA 465,461,020 Din.

    DUNAV OSIGURANJE AD 12,678,363,000 Din.

    AERODROM NIKOLA TESLA AD BEO 31,523,516,100 Din.

    KOMERCIJALNA BANKA AD BEOGRA 42,852,151,888 Din.

    JEDINSTVO SEVOJNO AD 1,664,238,000 Din.

    MESSER TEHNOGAS AD 13,034,937,692 Din.

    JUBMES BANKA AD BEOGRAD 1,471,924,650 Din.

    TERMIKA AD BEOGRAD 255,880,800 Din.

    NIS AD NOVI SAD 94,411,971,600 Din.

    P/BV P/E ROE Market capitalization

    The most traded stocks on Belgrade Stock Exchange from the previous day

    Company Ticker Price RSD Turnovor

    RSD

    Daily

    change

    Weekly

    change

    Ratios P / B P / E Belex15 0,52 2,02

    Turnover 20,442,571 RSD 10,293,773 RSD 98.59% Source: Belgrade Stock Exchange

    173,886 € 87,586 € 98.53%

    Belex 15 672.38 664.25 1.22% -12.79%

    Belex line 1,482.88 1,467.74 1.03% -7.65%

    Belgrade Stock Exchange

    Value Previous value Change YTD

    1,550

    1,650

    1,750

    1,850

    1,950

    2,050

    2,150

    CROBEX

    450

    500

    550

    600

    650

    700

    SOFIX

    6,500

    7,000

    7,500

    8,000

    8,500

    9,000

    9,5