DAILY REPORT - Banca Intesa Beograd · 2018-10-25 · Banca Intesa ad Beograd. Banca Intesa ad...
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Source: Daily FX Value Previous Change YTD Value Previous Change YTD 118.5968 118.5566 0.03% 0.10% 1.1392 1.1471 -0.69% -5.11% 103.9502 103.4074 0.52% 4.88% 1.1367 1.1412 -0.40% -2.84% 104.3159 103.8968 0.40% 2.63% 0.8844 0.8836 0.09% -4.72% 133.8867 134.2201 -0.25% 0.34% 1.2883 1.2982 -0.76% -0.39% Source: NBS 112.2500 112.4500 -0.18% -0.38% Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg Value Next decision Value 3.00% 08.11.2018. 0.00% Deposit facility 1.75% 2.25% Lending facility 4.25% 0.75% Repo operations (one week) 2.37% -0.75% Source: NBS Source: Bloomberg 24.10.2018 23.10.2018 Change (bps) 24.10.2018 23.10.2018 Change(bps) 2.33% 2.27% 0.06 -0.369% -0.369% 0.000 2.63% 2.62% 0.01 -0.370% -0.369% -0.001 2.95% 2.94% 0.01 -0.317% -0.317% 0.000 3.12% 3.11% 0.01 -0.259% -0.259% 0.000 Source: Reuters Source: Bloomberg, EBF Note: Values are with 1 day delay Note: Values are with 1 day delay Value Previous Change (bps) Value Previous Change(bps) 2.294% 2.281% 0.013 0.065% 0.052% 0.013 2.508% 2.490% 0.018 0.400% 0.384% 0.016 2.760% 2.748% 0.012 1.014% 0.993% 0.021 -0.783% -0.784% 0.001 3.101% 3.169% -0.068 -0.740% -0.740% 0.000 3.116% 3.191% -0.075 -0.666% -0.662% -0.004 3.188% 3.258% -0.070 Sources: ICE, Bloomberg Sources: IBA, Bloomberg Libor 3M (CHF) USD ISDA 5Y FIXING Libor 6M (CHF) USD ISDA 10Y FIXING Libor 3M (USD) EURIBOR ISDA 5Y FIXING Libor 6M (USD) EURIBOR ISDA 10Y FIXING Libor 1M (CHF) USD ISDA 3Y FIXING BELIBOR 6M EURIBOR6M Libor interest rates Interest rate Swap Libor 1M (USD) EURIBOR ISDA 3Y FIXING BEONIA EONIA BELIBOR1M EURIBOR1M BELIBOR3M EURIBOR3M United Kingdom (BOE) 1.11.2018 Switzerland (SNB) 13.12.2018 Serbia - Interbank interest rates Serbia Europe - Interbank interest rates - Europe Next decision Key policy rate Eurozone (ECB) 25.10.2018 US (FED) 8.11.2018 GBP/RSD GBP/USD USD/JPY National Bank of Serbia Interest rates Major interest rates EUR/RSD EUR/USD USD/RSD EUR/CHF CHF/RSD EUR/GBP FX rates and money market FX rates on domestic market International markets Currency Currency ECB_Rate decision 0.0% 0.0% 14:30 Durable goods orders Sep P 4.4% -1.5% Key events Time Country/ Region Event Period Previous Forecast The ECB likely won't change key interest rates. Mr. Draghi is likely to be quizzed on increasing risk related to trade, the oulook for global growth, inflation expectations. 13:45 EU US Overall trading at the Belgrade Stock Exchange RSD645,67mn (€5,45mn). Bonds trading RSD615,02mn (€5,19mn). Euro slides against dollar. Trading at $1.141. European stocks mixed at the closing. Stoxx 600 down 0.2%, DAX down 0.6%, FTSE 100 up 0.1%. U.S. equities down. Dow Jones down 2.4%, S&P500 down 3.1%. Oil drop (WTI $66.49, Brent $75.88). Gold up ($1.237,83). Financial Market Analysis Treausury and ALM department DAILY REPORT Flash Dinar slightly changed against euro (118,5968). National Bank of Serbia sold €15mn at the forex interbank market. Bank of the Group October 25, 2018 1.13 1.14 1.15 1.16 1.17 1.18 1.19 1.2 EUR/USD 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 117 118 119 120 121 122 EUR mio EUR/RSD Turnover on FX market (right axis)
Transcript of DAILY REPORT - Banca Intesa Beograd · 2018-10-25 · Banca Intesa ad Beograd. Banca Intesa ad...
Source: Daily FX
Value Previous Change YTD Value Previous Change YTD
118.5968 118.5566 0.03% 0.10% 1.1392 1.1471 -0.69% -5.11%
103.9502 103.4074 0.52% 4.88% 1.1367 1.1412 -0.40% -2.84%
104.3159 103.8968 0.40% 2.63% 0.8844 0.8836 0.09% -4.72%
133.8867 134.2201 -0.25% 0.34% 1.2883 1.2982 -0.76% -0.39%Source: NBS 112.2500 112.4500 -0.18% -0.38%
Source: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg
Value Next decision Value
3.00% 08.11.2018. 0.00%
Deposit facility 1.75% 2.25%
Lending facility 4.25% 0.75%
Repo operations (one week) 2.37% -0.75%
Source: NBS Source: Bloomberg
24.10.2018 23.10.2018 Change (bps) 24.10.2018 23.10.2018 Change(bps)
2.33% 2.27% 0.06 -0.369% -0.369% 0.000
2.63% 2.62% 0.01 -0.370% -0.369% -0.001
2.95% 2.94% 0.01 -0.317% -0.317% 0.000
3.12% 3.11% 0.01 -0.259% -0.259% 0.000
Source: Reuters Source: Bloomberg, EBF
Note: Values are with 1 day delay Note: Values are with 1 day delay
Value Previous Change (bps) Value Previous Change(bps)
2.294% 2.281% 0.013 0.065% 0.052% 0.013
2.508% 2.490% 0.018 0.400% 0.384% 0.016
2.760% 2.748% 0.012 1.014% 0.993% 0.021
-0.783% -0.784% 0.001 3.101% 3.169% -0.068
-0.740% -0.740% 0.000 3.116% 3.191% -0.075
-0.666% -0.662% -0.004 3.188% 3.258% -0.070
Sources: ICE, Bloomberg Sources: IBA, Bloomberg
Libor 3M (CHF) USD ISDA 5Y FIXING
Libor 6M (CHF) USD ISDA 10Y FIXING
Libor 3M (USD) EURIBOR ISDA 5Y FIXING
Libor 6M (USD) EURIBOR ISDA 10Y FIXING
Libor 1M (CHF) USD ISDA 3Y FIXING
BELIBOR 6M EURIBOR6M
Libor interest rates Interest rate Swap
Libor 1M (USD) EURIBOR ISDA 3Y FIXING
BEONIA EONIA
BELIBOR1M EURIBOR1M
BELIBOR3M EURIBOR3M
United Kingdom (BOE) 1.11.2018
Switzerland (SNB) 13.12.2018
Serbia - Interbank interest rates Serbia Europe - Interbank interest rates - Europe
Next decision
Key policy rate Eurozone (ECB) 25.10.2018
US (FED) 8.11.2018
GBP/RSD GBP/USD
USD/JPY
National Bank of Serbia Interest rates Major interest rates
EUR/RSD EUR/USD
USD/RSD EUR/CHF
CHF/RSD EUR/GBP
FX rates and money market
FX rates on domestic market International markets
Currency Currency
ECB_Rate decision 0.0% 0.0%
14:30 Durable goods orders Sep P 4.4% -1.5%
Key events
TimeCountry/
RegionEvent Period Previous Forecast
The ECB likely won't change key interest rates. Mr. Draghi is likely to be
quizzed on increasing risk related to trade, the oulook for global growth,
inflation expectations.13:45 EU
US
Overall trading at the Belgrade Stock Exchange RSD645,67mn (€5,45mn). Bonds trading RSD615,02mn (€5,19mn).
Euro slides against dollar. Trading at $1.141.
European stocks mixed at the closing. Stoxx 600 down 0.2%, DAX down 0.6%, FTSE 100 up 0.1%.
U.S. equities down. Dow Jones down 2.4%, S&P500 down 3.1%.
Oil drop (WTI $66.49, Brent $75.88).
Gold up ($1.237,83).
Financial Market Analysis
Treausury and ALM department
DAILY REPORT
Flash
Dinar slightly changed against euro (118,5968). National Bank of Serbia sold €15mn at the forex interbank market.
Bank of the Group
October 25, 2018
1.13
1.14
1.15
1.16
1.17
1.18
1.19
1.2EUR/USD
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
117
118
119
120
121
122EUR mio EUR/RSD
Turnover on FX market (right axis)
Date Currency
Source: Public Debt Management Agency
Moody's S&P Fitch
Ba3 BB BB
Outlook Stable Stable Stable
Date 17.3.2017 15.12.2017 15.12.2017 Sources: Bloomberg, JPMorgan
Source: Bloomberg
Date Value Previous Date Value Previous
04.02.2016 2.75% 2.79% 21.05.2018 0.45% 0.47%
02.03.2017 2.64% 2.65% 13.06.2018 0.65% 0.96%
07.02.2017 3.48% 3.49% 20.04.2018 1.20% 1.24%
24.10.2017 4.05% 4.65% 16.04.2018 1.78% 1.88%
28.02.2018 3.80% 3.88% 11.06.2018 2.50%
11.09.2018 3.74% 3.75% 26.03.2018 3.50% 4.00%
23.10.2017 5.00% 5.60% 06.09.2017 4.20% 4.20%
07.08.2018 4.80% 4.85% Source: Public Debt Management Agency
23.06.2016NBS key rate +
0.25%
NBS key rate +
0.25%
Source: Public Debt Management Agency
Source: Public Debt Management Agency Source: Public debt Management Agency
Sources: Ministry of finance, Banca Intesa Sources: Ministry of finance, Banca Intesa
Vrednost Prethodna UST spred
Serbia 5y 2018 2.434% 2.372% 0.216%
Serbia 7y 2020 3.983% 3.978% 1.232%
Serbia 10y 2021 4.180% 4.178% 4.180%Source: Bloomberg
Izvor: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg
7 years
10 years
24 month amortizing
Serbian Eurobonds yields (USD)
15 years
2 years 5 years
3 years 7 years
5 years 10 years
Maturity
3 months 53 weeks
6 months 2 years
53 weeks 3 years
Maturity
RSD Government securities EUR Government securities
Instrument Value
No scheduled auctions for today
Serbia Credit rating
Fixed income
Scheduled auctions
80
130
180
230
280
330
bps JP Morgan EMBI Srbija
2.2
2.7
3.2
3.7
4.2
4.7
105
107
109
111
113
115
117
Serbian 10y Eurobond 2021
Price Yield (right axis)
1.52.53.54.55.56.57.58.59.5
10.511.512.513.514.5
Yields on RSD government securities primary auctions
3m 6m 53w 2y 3y NBS key rate 5y 7y 10y
0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.55.05.56.06.57.0
Yields on EUR government securities primary auctions
53w 2y 3y 5y 7y 10y 15y
2
Source: Belgrade Stock Exchange
Source: Belgrade Stock Exchange Source: Belgrade Stock Exchange
Sourc: Bloomberg
NIIS 685 13,863,715 0.00% -0.44% #N/A N/A #N/A N/A #N/A N/A
ENHL 681 9,585,756 0.15% -1.30% 0.88 179.47 0.53
KMBN 2,000 4,040,000 0.00% 1.01% 0.48 8.07 6.61
FITO 2,800 1,374,800 0.00% 0.00% 1.61 9.73 17.60
PDCL 10,378 674,570 0.66% 0.66% 1.74 51.53 3.44
SVRL 602 538,790 0.00% 0.00% 0.85 187.01 0.46
AERO 1,677 311,922 0.00% 0.24% 2.30 16.82 14.52
KOPB 4,800 96,000 0.00% 0.00% #N/A N/A #N/A N/A #N/A N/A
IMPL 3,050 88,450 -1.61% 0.00% 1.06 10.83 10.27
SJPT 136 18,496 -2.86% -12.26% #N/A N/A #N/A N/A #N/A N/A
VDAV 4,100 12,300 0.00% 0.00% 0.39 18.38 2.69
TIGR 41 6,560 0.00% 0.00% #N/A N/A #N/A N/A #N/A N/A
Sources: Belgrade Stock Exchange; Bloombeg
-0.18%
-0.11%
0.52%
-0.18%
0.92%
Source: Bloomberg
crobex sbi20
Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg
sofix bet-c
Izvor: Bloomberg Izvor: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg
dj balkan
Source: Bloomberg
DJ Stoxx Balkan 50 Balkan 409.59 405.85 -13.01%
SOFIX Bugarska 600.14 597.06 -11.41%
BET Rumunija 8,626.14 8,641.52 11.25%
Crobex Hrvatska 1,782.68 1,785.90 -3.27%
SBITOP Slovenija 811.10 811.96 0.57%
Regional stock exchanges
Index Country/Region ValueValue from the previous
dayChange YTD
SOJAPROTEIN AD 2,025,791,264 Din.
VODA VRNJCI AD 470,626,700 Din.
TIGAR AD PIROT 314,284,721 Din.
AERODROM NIKOLA TESLA AD BEO 58,738,818,333 Din.
KOPAONIK AD BEOGRAD 740,750,400 Din.
IMPOL SEVAL AD SEVOJNO 2,873,975,350 Din.
GALENIKA FITOFARMACIJA AD 7,392,000,000 Din.
PODUNAVLJE AD CELAREVO 2,012,346,090 Din.
SVRLJIG AD SVRLJIG 570,739,946 Din.
NIS AD NOVI SAD 111,696,374,000 Din.
ENERGOPROJEKT HOLDING AD BEO 7,444,209,852 Din.
KOMERCIJALNA BANKA AD BEOGRA 33,635,912,000 Din.
P/BV P/E ROE Market capitalization
The most traded stocks on Belgrade Stock Exchange from the previous day
Company Ticker Price RSDTurnovor
RSD
Daily
change
Weekly
change
Ratios P / B P / EBelex15 0,73 6,52
Turnover 645,665,363 RSD 819,922,462 RSD -21.25%Source: Belgrade Stock Exchange
5,446,052 € 6,924,407 € -21.35%
Belex 15 735.70 736.06 -0.05% -3.12%
Belex line 1,542.81 1,544.09 -0.08% -7.12%
Belgrade Stock Exchange
Value Previous value Change YTD
1,500
1,600
1,700
1,800
1,900
2,000
2,100
2,200
2,300
CROBEX
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
SOFIX
5,500
6,000
6,500
7,000
7,500
8,000
8,500
9,000
9,500
BET
300
400
500
600DJ Stoxx Balkan 50
500
550
600
650
700
750
800 Belex 15
0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
0.15%
NIIS KMBN AERO TGAS MTLC FITO JESV ALFA ENHL
Daily change of Belex 15 members
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800Belex line
600
650
700
750
800
850
900
950
SBITOP
3
Source: Bloomberg
dow jones s&p
Izvor: Bloomberg Izvor: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg
nasdaq dax
Izvor: Bloomberg Izvor: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg
nikkei dj stoxx
Izvor: Bloomberg Izvor: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg
Izvor: Bloomberg Izvor: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg
Snežana Topalović 201-1400 Snežana Spasojević 201-3621Vladimir Gavović 201-1263 Dragomir Milin [email protected] Biljana Radosavljević 201-3610
Darko Karanović 201-3624
Boban Todorović 201-3627Dragan Ignja 201-3626
ContactFinancial Market analysis Customer execution office (fixed income)
Dealing
Disclaimer
This overview is written to inform and does not represent a call for making business decisions and buying or selling mentioned financial instruments. Banca Intesa ad Beograd does not guarantee exactness of summoned data.
Information, opinions and commentaries in this overview are given with the best intention according to available data provided from relevant sources and as a result of professional attitudes and orientations of analytical team working in
Banca Intesa ad Beograd. Banca Intesa ad Beograd does not assume responsibility for possible loss and damage caused by business activities according to any element and contents of the overview. This document may only be
reproduced in whole or in part together with the name of Banca Intesa Beograd.
Nikkei 225 Japan 22,091.18 22,010.78 0.37% -2.96%
Dow Jones Stoxx 600 EU 353.27 354.06 -0.22% -9.23%
FTSE UK 6,962.98 6,955.21 0.11% -9.43%
DAX Germany 11,191.63 11,274.28 -0.73% -13.36%
NASDAQ US 7,108.40 7,437.54 -4.43% 2.97%
S&P 500 US 2,656.10 2,740.69 -3.09% -0.65%
Dow Jones Industrial US 24,583.42 25,191.43 -2.41% -0.55%
Index Country/Region Value Previous value Change YTD
World stock exchanges
14,00015,00016,00017,00018,00019,00020,00021,00022,00023,00024,00025,00026,00027,00028,000
Dow Jones Industrial
1,700
1,800
1,900
2,000
2,100
2,200
2,300
2,400
2,500
2,600
2,700
2,800
2,900
3,000
S&P 500
4,0004,2004,4004,6004,8005,0005,2005,4005,6005,8006,0006,2006,4006,6006,8007,0007,2007,4007,6007,8008,0008,2008,400
NASDAQ Composite
260
280
300
320
340
360
380
400
420DJ Stoxx 600
9,000
11,000
13,000
15,000
17,000
19,000
21,000
23,000
25,000
27,000
Nikkei 225
\
8,000
9,000
10,000
11,000
12,000
13,000
14,000DAX
35
45
55
65
75
85
95Oil Brent (USD/bbl)
1,050
1,100
1,150
1,200
1,250
1,300
1,350
1,400Gold
\
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40 Vix Index
4
