1

•Daily Operations Briefing August 8, 2012

As of 8:30 a.m. EDT

2

Significant Activity: August 7 – 8 Significant Events:

• None

Tropical Activity:

• Atlantic – Tropical Storm Ernesto; Invest 92L (LOW / 30%); Remnants - Florence (LOW / 0%)

• Eastern Pacific –Tropical Storm Gilma; Invest 93E (MEDIUM / 40%)

• Central Pacific – No tropical cyclones expected through late Thurs night

• Western Pacific – No tropical cyclones affecting U.S. territories

Significant Weather:

• Excessive Heat in the interior of California and in the Desert Southwest

• Showers & thunderstorms – Ohio Valley into Deep South

• Critical Fire Weather Areas & Red Flag Warnings: ID & MT

• Space Weather: No space weather occurred / no space weather predicted

Earthquake Activity: No significant activity

Disaster Declaration Activity: None

3

Atlantic – Tropical Outlook

4

Atlantic – Tropical Storm Ernesto As of 8:00 a.m. EDT

• 90 miles SSE of Campeche, MX

• Moving W at 15 mph

• This motion expected to continue next 24-48 hrs

• On forecast track, center will continue to move over southern

portion of Yucatan Peninsula this morning and emerge over Bay of

Campeche this afternoon

• Forecast to move across southern portion of Bay of Campeche

tonight; approach coast of Mexico within hurricane warning area

on Thurs

• Max sustained winds 60 mph

• Additional weakening expected as it over land this morning

• Re-strengthening forecast after center emerges over Bay of

Campeche; could regain hurricane strength before landfall on

Thurs

• Tropical storm force winds extend 160 miles

5

Atlantic – Area 1 (Invest 92L) As of 8:00 a.m. EDT

• 700 miles WSW of Cape Verde Islands

• Moving W at 10 -15 mph

• Conditions marginally conducive for gradual

development next 24-48 hrs

• MEDIUM chance (30%) of becoming tropical

cyclone next 48 hrs

6

Atlantic – Area 2 (Remnants of Florence) As of 8:00 a.m. EDT

• 460 miles E of northern Leeward Islands

• Moving WNW at about 20 mph

• Not expected to be conducive for redevelopment

• LOW chance (near 0%) of becoming tropical

cyclone again next 48 hrs

7

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_epac.shtml

This product is updated at approximately 5 AM, 11 AM, 5 PM, and 11 PM PDT from May 15

to November 30. Special outlooks may be issued as conditions warrant.

Eastern Pacific – Tropical Outlook

8

Eastern Pacific -Tropical Storm Gilma

As of 5:00 a.m. EDT

• Located 645 miles SW of southern tip of Baja California, MX

• Moving WNW near 13 mph

• This motion with decrease in forward speed expected next

48 hrs

• Maximum sustained winds 70 mph

• Additional strengthening expected; could become a

hurricane today

• Tropical Storm force winds extend 80 miles

9

Eastern Pacific –Area 1(Invest 93E) As of 8:00 a.m. EDT

• 460 miles SSW of Acapulco, MX

• Development is possible; could become tropical

depression next 24-48 hrs

• MEDIUM chance (40%) of becoming tropical

cyclone next 48 hrs

10

Central Pacific – Tropical Outlook

11

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/noaa/noaad1.pdf

Daily: 0400 a.m. and 1600

National Weather Forecast

12

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/largemap.php

Active Watches/Warnings

13

Precipitation Forecast 1 – 3 Day

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/d13_fill.gif

14

http://water.weather.gov/ahps/forecasts.php?current_color=flood&current_type=all&fcst_type=fcst&conus_map=d_map

River Flood Outlook – 7 Day

15

Convective Outlook Days 1 – 3

Day 2 Day 1

Day 3

16

Critical Fire Weather Areas Days 1 – 8

Day 1 Day 2

Day 3-8

17

MAP: http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/hazards_d3_7.png

TEXT: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats_ie.php

Hazard Outlook: August 10 – 14

20

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/aviation/index.html http://spaceweather.com/

www.spaceweather.com

http://www.swpc.noaa.n/index.html

http://

Space Weather

NOAA Scales Activity Range 1 (minor) to 5 (extreme)

Past 24 Hours Current Next 24 Hours

Space Weather: None None None

• Geomagnetic Storms None None None

• Solar Radiation Storms None None None

• Radio Blackouts None None None

HF Communications Impact Sunspot Activity

21

Significant Earthquake Activity – U.S.

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsus/

Southern California

• M4.4 & aftershocks Aug 8 at 2:23 a.m. EDT

• 29 mi ESE Los Angeles

• Depth of 5.1 miles

• No reports of injuries or damage

22

US Wildland Fire Preparedness Levels

As of August 8, 2012

National Preparedness Level: 3 Two (2) or more Geographic Areas are experiencing wildland or prescribed fire activities requiring a major commitment of National

Resources. Additional resources are being ordered and mobilized through NICC. Type 1 and 2 Incident Management Teams are committed

in two (2) or more Geographic Areas and crew commitment nationally is at 50%.

. PL 3

PL 3

PL 3

PL 4

PL 3

PL 1 PL 5

Minimal Extreme

PL 3

PL 1

PL 1

PL 1

PL 2

PL 2

23

Western Wildfire Summary

Fire Name FMAG #

County GACC Name /

# Acres burned

% Contained

Evacuations (Type)

Structures Threatened

Structures Destroyed

Fatalities / Injuries

Oklahoma (6)

Geary Fire 2998-FM-OK

Blaine/Canadian Spur

OK-OKS-42006 978 (-88) 70% No 0 1 0/0

Noble Fire 2999-FM-OK

Cleveland Maguire OK-ECU

7,900 Unk Yes 245 45 0/0

Freedom Fire 5000-FM-OK

Creek McNac

OK-OMA-012044 58,232 60% (+60) No - Lifted 125 50 (+40) 0/0

Luther Fire 5001-FM-OK

Oklahoma Luther 2,621 Unk No 0 2 0/0

Glencoe Fire 5002-FM-OK

Payne Norfolk Road OK-OKS-42009

1,628 (+128) 75% (+75) Yes 240 3 0/0

Drumright Fire 5003-FM-OK

Payne/Creek Cushing

OK-OKS-42008

6,493

(+5,427) 75% (+5) No 0 4 (+3) 0/0

24

Western Wildfire Summary Fire Name (County)

FMAG # Acres burned % Contained Evacuations

(Type) Structures

Threatened Structures Destroyed

Fatalities / Injuries

Montana (2)

Rosebud Complex

(Rosebud County) Not Requested 173,261 30% No 0 4 0/0

Elbow Pass Complex

(Lewis & Clark Co) Not Requested 15, 830 (+164) 25%

Yes

(Mandatory) None 0 0/0

California (1))

Chips Fire

(Plumas County) Not Requested 16,787 (+2,920) 10% (+10)

Yes

(Voluntary) 30 0 0/0

Utah (1)

Pinyon Fire – FINAL

(Utah County) Not Requested 2,959 (+1,359) 40% (+15) No - Lifted 0 0 0/0

25

August 8, 2012:

• National Preparedness Level: 3

• Initial Attack Activity: Moderate (228)

• New Large Fires: 16

• Large Fires Contained: 8

• Uncontained Large Fires: 49

• NIMOs Committed: 1

• Type 1 IMT(s) Committed: 3

• Type 2 IMT(s) Committed: 13

• States Affected: ID, UT, CA, MT, NV, OR,

WA, OK, TX, AR, WY, CO & NM

National Fire Activity

26

Disaster Requests & Declarations

Declaration Requests in Process Requests APPROVED

(since last report)

Requests DENIED

(since last report)

1 Date Requested 0 0

FL- DR Flooding (Appeal) August 6, 2012

29

Deployed Detailed Available Not Available Total

16 1 17 2 36

OFDC Cadre Member Status

Total Available Type 1 Type 2 Type 3 Type 4

20* 3* 11 4 2

As of: 08/03/12

* All Type 1 FCOs are available unless deployed to a Level 1 event

Positions On Board Available Deployed Pending Hire

10 4 3 1 1

Federal Coordinating Officer

Federal Disaster Recovery Coordinator

30

Open Field Offices as of August 8, 2012

31

Joint Preliminary Damage Assessments

Number of Counties, Tribes & Cities

Region State Event IA/PA Requested Ongoing Complete Begin/End

V MN Severe Storms/High Winds

July 2 – July 4 PA

5 counties;

2 tribes

5 counties;

2 tribes 0

Began: 7/25

End: TBD

VII NE Wildfires

July 20 – July 30

IA 1 0 0 Begin: 8/13

End: TBD

PA 4 0 0 Begin: 8/13

End: TBD

X WA Severe Storms

July 13 - 20

IA 2 0 2 Began: 8/1

Ended: 8/2

PA 3 (-2) 3 0 Began: 8/7

End: 8/10

32

MCOV Fleet / Deployment Status

Fully Mission Capable 56

Partially Mission Capable 0

Non-Mission Capable 1

Total Not Deployed 54

MCOV FLEET STATUS MCOV DISASTER SUPPORT DEPLOYMENTS

Location Units

Assigned

Available

FMC

Deployed

Committed PMC NMC DR-State OPCON

En

Route Unit Prep

Open

Request Notes:

DC Atlanta 21 17 3 0 1 R4-FL-4068 3 0 0

DC Cumberland 10 10 0 0 0 0 0 0

DC Ft Worth 15 15 0 0 0 0 0 0

DC Moffett 6 6 0 0 0 0 0 0

Holliston, MA 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0

Denver, CO 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0

Bothell, WA 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0

TOTAL 57 53 3 0 1 TOTAL 3 0 0 0

Included in above totals, units en

route for turn-in. 1

Data as of: 08/07/12 @ 1500

34

Active IA Disasters

AL

4052-DR

1971-DR

AZ AR

CA

CO

FL

ID

IL

1991-DR

IN

IA

1998-DR

KS

LA

ME

MA

4028-DR

1994-DR

WI

MN

MO

MT

NE

NV

NM

NY

NC

4019-DR

1969-DR

ND

OH

OR

SC

SD

TN

4060-DR

1979-DR

1974-DR

TX

4029-DR

UT

VA

WA

WY

DE MD

KY

4057-DR

4008-DR

1976-DR

OK

1989-DR

1970-DR

GA

1973-DR

AR

4000-DR

1975-DR

MO

4012-DR

1980-DR

VT

4022-DR

4001-DR

1995-DR ND

1981-DR

MS

MT

1996-DR

NE

4013-DR

SD

1984-DR

PR

4040-DR

4017-DR

NY

4031-DR

4020-DR

NH

4026-DR

PA

4030-DR

4025-DR

VA

4042-DR

NJ

4021-DR

CT

4023-DR

WV

MS

1983-DR

1972-DR

# of DRs Legend

Open Registration Period (60 days from Declaration,

unless extended)

IHP Active – IHP Assistance period remains open

(18 Months from Declaration)

IHP Closing Within 60 Days

1

44

0 Data as of: 08/07/12 @ 1500

IN

4058-DR WV

4059-DR

4061-DR

MI

FL

4068-DR

35

IA Registration Statistics

Cumulative as of August 7, 2012 @ 1500

DR # - State Registrations Approved

Applicants

Total HA

Approved

Total ONA

Approved

Total IHP

Approved

4068 – FL 14,123 5,070 $16,824,916 $2,305,820 $19,130,736

Totals 14,123 5,070 $16,824,916 $2,305,820 $19,130,736

24 hour change +196 +77 +$180,306 +$70,771 +$251,077

NPSC Call Data for August 6, 2012

Total NPSC Calls Answered (Helpline + Registration Intake) 1,566

Average time to answer call 20 seconds

36

IHP Referral Status & Awards

Data includes the 45 IHP Active DRs

# Max Grants = Applicants awarded maximum IHP ($30,200 as of FY2012) Data as of: 08/07/12 @ 1500

37

Housing Inspection Statistics

* Only displaying inspectors for DRs that currently have open registration periods

Data as of August 7, 2012 @ 1600

DR # - State Inspectors Inspections

Assigned

Inspections

Completed

Inspection %

Complete

Turnaround Time

(Days)

4068 – FL 25 11,392 11,121 97.6% 1.8

TOTAL 25 11,392 11,121 97.6% 1.8

24 hour change -1 +162 +155 -0.0% -0.0

38

PA Grant Funding Per Event Type

Only Includes Events Declared Within 12 months of August 7, 2012

Event Type States Declarations

Cumulative

Applicants

Project

Worksheets

Entered Funding Estimate Total Obligated

Percent

Funded

Earthquake - August 2011 2 2 45 219 $37,629,318 $33,112,897 88.0%

Hurricanes/Tropical Storms 17 37 8,685 38,107 $1,882,179,075 $908,308,409 55.5%

Severe Storms/Flooding 15 21 1,578 4,109 $432,826,567 $214,636,188 51.2%

Tornadoes 7 7 272 1,080 $75,142,373 $23,940,223 33.9%

Wildfires 2 2 95 821 $77,436,901 $22,538,586 29.1%

Winter Storms 5 5 719 2,126 $119,871,407 $93,597,449 78.2%

Total for

All Event Types 34 74 11,394 46,462 $2.6 Billion $1.3 Billion 54.9%

Public Assistance Events and Milestones for this Week

• August 6, 2012, William Roche, Director, Public Assistance Division briefed Senate Appropriations Committee staff on next

steps for the PA Courses of Action, the Project Worksheet Process, and Workflow Report and Operations Clean Sweep.

• August 7, 2012, William Roche, Director, Public Assistance Division participated in a conference call with Representative

Hinchey’s staff to discuss the PA pocket guide and PA reimbursements related to tropical storms Irene/Lee

Public Assistance Grants and Activities

39

IMAT Status National Teams

Team Status Team Status Team Status

BLUE (East)

WHITE (Central)

RED (West)

Regional Teams

Team Status Team Status Team Status

Region I Region V Region IX-1

Region II Region VI-1 Region IX-2

Region III VA Region VI-2 Region X

Region IV-1 Region VII

Region IV-2 FL Region VIII MT

= Assigned/Deployed

= Out-of-Service

= Available/Mission Capable

= Available/Partially Mission Capable

40

Urban Search & Rescue INCIDENT SUPPORT TEAMS (Red-White-Blue) – Monthly On Call Rotation

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

WEST CENTRAL EAST

Team Status Team Status Team Status

CA-TF1 Available AZ-TF1 Available FL-TF1 Available

CA-TF2 Available CO-TF1 Available FL-TF2 Available

CA-TF3 Available IN-TF1 Available MA-TF1 Available

CA-TF4 Available MO-TF1 Available MD-TF1 Available

CA-TF5 Available NE-TF1 Available NY-TF1 Available

CA-TF6 Available NM-TF1 Available PA-TF1 Conditionally

Available

CA-TF7 Available NV-TF1 Conditionally

Available VA-TF1 Available

CA-TF8 Available TN-TF1 Conditionally

Available VA-TF2 Available

WA-TF1 Available TX-TF1 Available OH-TF1 Available

UT-TF1 Available

= Assigned/Deployed

= Out-of-Service

= Available/Mission Capable

= Available/Partially Mission Capable

41

Region RRCC Regional Watch Center

I Watch/Steady State Maynard MOC (24/7)

II Watch/Steady State 24/7

III Watch/Steady State 24/7

IV Watch/Steady State 24/7

V Watch/Steady State 24/7

VI Watch/Steady State Denton MOC (24/7)

VII Level III (Monitoring 24/7) 24/7

VIII Level III (7:30-5:00 MDT, M-F) Denver MOC (24/7)

IX Watch/Steady State 24/7

X Level III (7:00-7:00 PDT, M-F) Bothell MOC (24/7)

RRCC / Regional Watch Center Status

42

National Team Status

Team/Status Current Location Remarks

National Watch Center Washington, DC Watch/Steady State

NRCC Washington, DC Not Activated

HLT Miami, FL Activated

DEST Washington, DC Not Activated

Mission Capable Partially Mission Capable Not Mission Capable

44