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Daily Market Report Saudi Arabia Stock Exchange

17 February 2013

TASI 7,087.82 0.35

Volume

Value

Trades

Market Commentary

Global Markets: Week ahead

The US market finished last week with minor gains as investors remained cautious amid upcoming fourth quarter earnings reports. Next week many notable firms including Dell, WalStores and American International Group (AIG) will come out with their latest results. Further, data from the US sector such housing starts and building permits along with inflation will provide directions to the market next week. The US market will remain closed on Monday for Presidents' Day. Euro zone, investors will continue to focus on several economic indicators that are set to release in next week. The first batch of confidence indicators will provide a first macro picture for the early part of this month. Moreover, on Friday the European Commission will publish its winter 2013 European Economic Forecast including updated GDP and deficit projections for countries.

Tadawul consolidated above 7,050

• TASI gained 0.4% to end the session at 7,087.8fifteen sectors ended the session in green. Banking and Petrochemical sectors are major gainers rising respectively. Trading turnover fell by 3.6% from Wednesday5.3bn on Saturday.

• Market breadth was positive as 90 stocks gained while stocks ended its session in red. Market heavyweightand SABIC gained 0.4% and 0.5% respectively. favorite Alinma gained 0.4% whereas Dar Al Arkanunchanged.

• Northern Cement gained 2.1% with high volumes on Saturdayafter witnessing selling pressure for consecutive six sessions.

Outlook

We expect TASI to open on a positive note. Technically, the index is looking constructive with immediate resistance at 7,120.0.

GCC Indices Close 1D% WTD%

Saudi Arabia 7,087.8 0.4 0.4

Qatar 8,792.8 -0.4 0.4

Dubai 1,894.0 -0.5 1.9

Abu Dhabi 2,935.0 -0.7 0.9

Kuwait 6,397.6 0.2 1.7

Oman 5,898.3 0.2 0.8

Bahrain 1,091.3 0.7 0.3

Global Indices Performance Close 1D%

DJ Industrial 13,981.76 0.1

S&P 500 1,519.79 -0.1

Nikkei 225 11,173.83 -1.2

Hang Seng 23,444.56 0.1

FTSE 100 6,328.26 0.0

CAC 40 3,660.37 -0.3

2 0.35%

226.2mn

Tel: +966 1 2119319

SAR5,287.9mn

114,209

TASI Intra-day Movement

The US market finished last week with minor gains as investors remained cautious amid upcoming fourth quarter earnings reports. Next week many notable firms including Dell, Wal-Mart

es and American International Group (AIG) will come out the US housing

along with directions to the market next week. The US

on Monday for Presidents' Day. In the on several economic

are set to release in next week. The first batch of confidence indicators will provide a first macro picture for the

this month. Moreover, on Friday the European 2013 European Economic

including updated GDP and deficit projections for

TASI gained 0.4% to end the session at 7,087.82. Thirteen of fifteen sectors ended the session in green. Banking and

sectors are major gainers rising 0.2% and 0.4% respectively. Trading turnover fell by 3.6% from Wednesday to

ined while 35 . Market heavyweights Al Rajhi

. Trading Dar Al Arkan remained

with high volumes on Saturday after witnessing selling pressure for consecutive six sessions.

Technically, the is looking constructive with immediate resistance at

Source: Bloomberg

Saudi Market Indices

Index Close Change (%)

Tadawul All Share Index 7,087.8

Banks & Financial Services 15,450.8

Petrochemical Industries 6,055.0

Cement 6,285.1

Retail 7,750.6

Energy & Utilities 4,975.1

Agriculture & Food Ind. 6,749.0

Telecom & IT 2,242.6

Insurance 1,246.0

Multi-Investment 3,845.4

Industrial Investment 6,500.2

Building & Construction 2,973.5

Real Estate Development 3,685.0

Transport 5,086.2

Media and Publishing 3,060.0

Hotel & Tourism 9,392.8

Source: Tadawul

MTD% YTD% Value Traded

(USD mn) Exchange Mkt. Cap. (USD mn)

0.6 4.2 1,410.0 388,422.3

0.8 5.2 123.1 130,970.8

0.3 16.7 79.8 55,813.1

1.8 11.6 77.6 87,237.5

2.4 7.8 156.5 106,135.7

1.7 2.4 36.4 20,953.2

0.6 2.4 6.9 19,607.8

7,040

7,050

7,060

7,070

11:00 12:00 13:00

WTD% YTD%

Asset/Currency Performance Close

-0.1 6.7 Gold(US$) 1,610.10

0.1 6.6 Silver(US$) 29.80

0.2 7.5 Crude Oil (Brent)(US$) 120.39

1.0 3.5 Euro(US$)

1.0 7.3 USD Index 80.58

0.3 0.5 JPY(US$) 93.50

Research Department [email protected]

+966 1 2119319/ Fax: +966 1 2119422

Change (%) MTD (%) YTD (%)

0.4 0.6 4.2

0.2 0.9 5.5

0.4 0.3 3.4

0.4 1.1 3.7

0.0 1.2 3.3

0.4 1.1 3.9

0.1 2.0 2.4

0.5 -1.0 3.6

1.1 -1.5 -8.5

1.4 3.0 4.0

-0.1 -0.5 2.9

0.3 -0.9 5.4

1.2 1.9 10.2

0.4 0.4 4.5

-0.1 -2.1 5.2

1.4 7.5 29.5

P/E P/B Dividend Yield%

14.9 1.9 3.5

11.2 1.6 4.4

12.5 0.8 3.3

9.2 1.1 4.5

28.1 1.2 2.9

11.0 1.5 4.3

10.7 0.8 4.3

14:00 15:00

Close 1D% WTD% YTD%

1,610.10 -1.5 -3.4 -3.9

29.80 -2.0 -5.1 -1.8

120.39 0.0 0.9 6.7

1.34 0.0 0.0 1.3

80.58 0.2 0.4 1.0

93.50 0.7 0.9 7.8


17 February 2013

` 2

Tadawul Market Overview

Sector Turnover Sector Volume

Top Gainers

Volume Leaders

Company Closing Price

(SAR) Change % Volume (mn) Company

Closing Price (SAR)

Change % Volume (mn)

Nama Chemicals 14.2 5.6 9.5 Northern Cement 21.7 2.1 34.1

ACIG 70.0 4.9 2.1 Dar Al Arkan 8.6 0.0 32.1

Arab Cement 51.0 4.1 0.8 Emaar E .C 10.1 0.5 25.7

ALLIANZ SF 54.8 3.8 1.5 Alinma 13.7 0.4 15.6

AMANA Insurance 46.8 3.5 1.7 Jabal Omar 23.3 2.6 11.0

Source: Tadawul

Top Losers Value Leaders


(SAR) Change % Volume (mn)


(SAR) Change % Value (mn)

Saudi Export 91.8 -3.4 0.5 Northern Cement 21.7 2.1 735.3

BJAZ 27.1 -3.2 1.7 SABIC 94.0 0.5 553.9

SPPC 35.7 -1.7 0.1 Dar Al Arkan 8.6 0.0 277.7

Saudi Investment 19.6 -1.3 0.1 Emaar E .C 10.1 0.5 259.4

Catering 86.0 -1.2 0.1 Jabal Omar 23.3 2.6 256.6

Source: Tadawul

Source: Data pertaining to all the tables in this page are taken from Tadawul Stock Exchange, Official Website

431.6

849.5

888.1

214.3

32.2226.7144.7

890.6

109.2

232.4

95.3

911.9

61.2 38.6161.7

20.9

23.4

39.1

4.22.3

7.010.8

21.65.65.8

4.4

76.3

2.0 0.7 2.2

Banks & Financial Services Petrochemical Industries Cement

Retail Energy & Utilities Agriculture & Food Industries

Telecommunication & Information Technology Insurance Multi-Investment

Industrial Investment Building & Construction Real Estate Development

Transport Media and Publishing Hotel & Tourism

52 Week New High / Low Stocks Consistently Gaining / Losing Over Last 3Sessions


(SAR) New High New Low

Company Current Price

(SAR) 3 Days

Change % 3 Days Avg. Volume (mn)

ACIG 70.0 70.0 – Allied Cooperative Insurance 70.0 12.9 1.7

Kingdom 21.7 22.5 – Jabal Omar Development Co. 23.3 8.6 5.1

Jabal Omar 23.3 24.2 – Arabian Cement 51.0 6.3 0.4

ALTAYYAR 88.0 91.8 – Food Products Company 30.3 -5.3 4.1


17 February 2013

` 3

Tadawul Technical Watch

Technical Outlook Pivot Table

TASI gained on Saturday, as

the index managed to move

above its near-term

resistance of 7,075. The RSI

is holding strong and

pointing upward, while

MACD has made a positive

crossover with the signal

line, indicating further

strength in price action. We

expect TASI to continue its

bullish momentum, if it

remained above its

horizontal support of 7,075.

Symbol R2 R1 PP S1 S2

TASI 7,105.25 7,096.54 7,079.13 7,070.42 7,053.01

Tadawul All Shares Index

Stocks Closest to Resistance Stocks Closest to Support


(SAR) R1 R2 PP Company

Closing Price (SAR)

S1 S2 PP

United Electronics Co 112.00 112.08 112.17 111.92

Arab National Bank 27.80 27.73 27.67 27.87

SAFCO 156.25 156.50 156.75 156.25 National Gas &

Industrialization Co 19.15 19.10 19.05 19.15

Saudi Cement 97.25 97.42 97.58 97.08 National Co for Glass

Manufacturing/The 24.90 24.83 24.77 24.97

Riyad Bank 23.30 23.35 23.40 23.30 Rabigh Refining &

Petrochemicals Co 17.50 17.45 17.40 17.50

Samba Financial Group 45.50 45.60 45.70 45.40

Al Jouf Cement Co 16.45 16.40 16.35 16.45

Jazan Development Co 14.95 14.98 15.02 14.92

Saudi Arabian Amiantit Co 15.35 15.30 15.25 15.40

Saudi Chemical Co 41.90 42.00 42.10 41.90

Etihad Etisalat Co 74.50 74.25 74.00 74.75

Saudi Electricity Co 13.90 13.93 13.97 13.87 Saudi Paper Manufacturing

Co 29.70 29.60 29.50 29.70

Alinma Bank 13.65 13.68 13.72 13.62

Saudi Investment Bank 19.60 19.53 19.47 19.67

Source: Tadawul


17 February 2013

` 4


Technical Outlook SABIC

As expected, SABIC continue

to trade between its two

trend line. The stock gained

on Saturday but failed to

decisively breach its sloping

resistance trend line. The

stock has formed a doji

candle stick pattern

indicating further side-ways

movement in the stock. The

RSI is trending higher, while

MACD line is indicating

consolidation in the stock.

We expect SABIC to gain, if

it able to decisively breach

its slopping resistance trend

line of SAR94.0.

R2 R1 PP S1 S2

95.33 94.67 94.08 93.42 92.83

Saudi Basic Industries Corp.

Technical Outlook STC

STC gained, as the stock

remained above its

horizontal support level of

SAR40.0. Moreover, the

stock has also breached its

12-day moving average (SAR

40.60), indicating further up

movement in price action.

The RSI is in rising mode,

while MACD line has made a

positive crossover with the

signal line, supporting our

bullish stance. We expect

STC to gain further and test

its immediate horizontal

resistance of 42.10, if it

remains above its 12-day

moving average.

R2 R1 PP S1 S2

41.40 41.10 40.60 40.30 39.80

Saudi Telecom Co.


17 February 2013

` 5


Technical Outlook Al Rajhi

In line with our expectation,

Al Rajhi continued with its

side-ways movement.

However, the stock gained

marginally on Saturday but

failed to breach its slopping

resistance trend line of

SAR68.15. Moreover, 12 day

and 21-day moving averages

also acting as resistance for

the stock. Both the

indicators are in

consolidation mode, thus

indicating further side-ways

movement in the stock. We

expect Al Rajhi to continue

with its sideways movement

if it remains below its

slopping resistance trend

line.

R2 R1 PP S1 S2

68.50 68.25 68.00 67.75 67.50

Al Rajhi Bank

Technical Outlook KAYAN

Kayan remained unchanged

on Saturday, as the stock

failed to breach its

immediate resistance of 12-

day moving average

SAR11.77. The stock has also

formed a doji candle stick

pattern indicating further

side-ways movement in the

stock. The RSI is in flattish

mode, while the MACD line

is continuing with its

sideways movement. We

expect Kayan to consolidate

further, if it remains below

its resistance of 12-day

moving average (SAR 11.77).

R2 R1 PP S1 S2

11.83 11.77 11.68 11.62 11.53

Saudi Kayan Petrochemical Co.


17 February 2013

` 6


Technical Outlook MA’ADEN

As expected, MA’ADEN

declined, as the stock

remained below its 21-

moving average (SAR34.17).

The RSI is making lower

tops, while MACD line is

consolidating with signal

line. We expect MA’ADEN to

decline and test its support

of rising trend line at

SAR33.35, if it remains

below its 21-day moving

average.

R2 R1 PP S1 S2

34.37 34.13 33.97 33.73 33.57

Saudi Arabian Mining Co.

Major GCC Companies

Technical Outlook EMAAR – Dubai Financial Market

EMAAR declined on

Thursday, as the stock

remained below its

horizontal resistance of

AED5.12. However, the

decline was limited as the

stock respected its horizontal

support at AED4.92. The

RSI is stalling above its over-

bought zone, while MACD

line is in consolidation

mode. We expect EMMAR to

consolidate further, if it

manages to remain above its

horizontal support of

AED4.92.

R2 R1 PP S1 S2

5.15 5.09 5.02 4.96 4.89

Emaar Properties


17 February 2013

` 7

GCC Technical Watch

Technical Outlook ARTC

Arabtec remained

unchanged on Thursday, as

the stock managed to remain

above its support of 12-day

moving average (AED2.92).

The RSI is consolidating

below its over-bought zone,

while MACD line is in

flattish mode. We expect

Arabtec to continue with its

sideways movement, if it

continues to respect its

support of 12-day moving

average.

R2 R1 PP S1 S2

3.03 3.00 2.97 2.94 2.91

Arabtec Holding Co.

Technical Outlook DANA

Dana Gas gained, as the

stock remained above its

horizontal support of

AED0.50. However, the

gains were limited, as the

stock witnessed significant

selling pressure from its

resistance of AED0.54, that

push the stock near its day’s

open price. The RSI is

making higher tops and still

below its over-bought zone,

while MACD line is about to

make positive crossover. We

expect Dana Gas to

consolidate if it remains

below its resistance of

AED0.54. The breach of the

resistance on closing basis

would be constructive for its

near-term future.

R2 R1 PP S1 S2

0.53 0.52 0.51 0.50 0.49

Dana Gas


17 February 2013

` 8

GCC Technical Watch

Technical Outlook IQCD

As expected, Industries

Qatar witnessed profit

booking on Thursday, after

touching ceiling of its trend

line resistance of

Wednesday. The decline

supported by rising volume,

indicating further selling

pressure in the stock.

However, the decline was

limited as the stock

respected its immediate


average (QR167.82). The RSI

is declining and breached its

over-bought zone, while

MACD has made negative

crossover, we expect

Industries Qatar to decline

further, if it moves below its


average.

R2 R1 PP S1 S2

178.27 175.63 173.37 170.73 168.47

Industries Qatar

Technical Outlook KFIN

Kuwait Finance remained

unchanged on Thursday, as

the stock failed to breach its

immediate resistance if 12-

day moving average

(KD820.73) and declined.

However, the stock

witnessed buying interest

from lowest point of day to

end its session near its day’s

open price. The RSI is in

consolidation mode, while

MACD is consolidating in

negative territory. We expect

Kuwait finance to

consolidate further with

negative bias, if it remains

below its resistance of 12-day

moving average.

R2 R1 PP S1 S2

823.33 816.67 813.33 806.67 803.33

Kuwait Finance House


17 February 2013

` 9

Definition - Technical Indicators

Candlestick Patterns, Doji

Doji is a form of candlestick pattern. It normally suggests major up and down movements. Trading above the Doji is positive for the market. Trading below the Doji value

indicates bearish momentum.

Hammer

A small body (white or black) near the high with a long lower shadow with little or no upper shadow. This indicates a bullish pattern during a downtrend.

Inverse-black-hammer: A bottom reversal signal with confirmation the next trading day.

Moving Average, SMA (Simple Moving Average)

Normally we use the 10, 20, 50 and 125 day SMA to identify the trend. A cross-over of the short-term moving average with the long-term moving average is positive for

the market. The reverse is the case on the negative side.

DEMA - Double-smoothed Exponential Moving Average

We use the 10, 20 and 40 DEMA to identify a trend. A cross-over of the 10 and 20 DEMA gives a positive indication. A cross-over of the 20 and 10 DEMA gives a negative

indication. As long as a stock or index trades above the 40 DEMA, this gives a positive indication for the stock or index. Trading below the 40 DEMA may create downside

for a short time.

MACD - Moving Average Convergence and Divergence

The MACD has its own line period and another signal line; the dotted line indicates the signal line. When the MACD crosses the signal line from below and trades above

it, it gives a positive indication. The reverse is the situation for a bearish trend.

RSI - Relative Strength Index

When the RSI remains below 30, it indicates that a market or stock is in oversold territory. When the RSI is above 70, it indicates that the market/stock is in an

overbought level.

Price ROC

When the Price ROC is above zero it gives positive signals for an index or stock. When the price ROC is below zero, it gives a negative signal for the index or stock.

Stochastic Oscillators

When Stochastic Oscillators are below zero, the stock is in an oversold zone and some bounce back is expected. When Stochastic Oscillators are above zero, the stock is in

an overbought zone and some correction is expected.

Williams’ %R

When Williams’ %R is above zero, the stock is in an overbought zone and some correction is expected. When Williams’ %R is below zero, the stock is in an oversold zone

and some bounce back is expected.

CCI (Commodity Channel Index)

While the CCI was originally designed for commodities, the indicator also works very well with stocks and mutual funds.

There are two methods of interpreting the CCI:

1. Looking for divergences: A popular method of analyzing the CCI is to look for divergences in which the underlying security is making new highs while the CCI is failing

to surpass its previous highs. This classic divergence is usually followed by a correction in the security's price.

2. As an overbought/oversold indicator: The CCI usually oscillates between +/-100. Readings outside these ranges imply an overbought/oversold condition.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci Retracements are based on a trend line that we draw between a significant trough and peak. If the trend line is rising, the retracement lines will project

downward; if the trend line is falling, the retracement lines will project upward. The number of Fibonacci Retracement levels appearing on the chart depends on the

range of the y-axis. If we want to see all nine retracement levels, we may need to manually adjust the minimum and maximum values of the y-axis. Major Fibonacci

Levels are 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8% and 100%.

Whipsaw

A whipsaw is a situation in which a share price heads in one direction, but then is followed quickly by a movement in the opposite direction. The origin of the term is the

push and pull action used by lumberjacks to cut wood with a type of saw of the same name.

Gravestone Doji

In a Japanese Candle Stick chart, this is a Doji candle where prices rallied but came back and closed at the level they started; the open and close are equal.


17 February 2013

` 10

Inside Bar

An inside bar is a bar, which is completely within the range of the preceding bar, i.e. it has a higher low and lower high than the bar immediately before it. An inside bar

indicates a time of indecision or consolidation. On a smaller time frame, it will look like a triangle. Inside bars often occur at tops and bottoms, in continuation flags, and

at key decision points like major support/resistance levels and consolidation breakouts.

Big Bar

A big bar is a bar, which is bigger than the preceding bar, i.e. it has a lower low and higher high than the bar immediately before it. Normally, after, forming a big bar, for

a coming few sessions, the stock may move in the range of the high and low of the big bar. Breaking out or breaking down will give a fresh bullish or bearish pattern.

Higher High

This implies that today’s intra-day high is higher than the intra-day high(s) of the previous session(s).

Lower High

This implies that today’s intra-day high is lower than the intra-day high(s) of the previous session(s).

Higher Low

This implies that today’s intra-day low is higher than the intra-day low(s) of the previous session(s).

Lower Low

This implies that today’s intra-day low is lower than the intra-day low(s) of the previous session(s).

Triangle

This is a technical analysis pattern created by drawing trend lines along a price range that gets narrower over time because of lower tops and higher bottoms. Variations

of a triangle include ascending and descending triangles. Technical analysts see a breakout of this triangular pattern as either bullish (on a breakout above the upper line)

or bearish (on a breakout below the lower line).

Standard Error Channel

Parallel lines drawn higher and lower from the Linear Regression Trend-line form Standard Error Channels. The distance at which they are traced is a certain

number of standard errors over or above the linear regression trend-line. The characteristic of the price fluctuations is its movement from one extreme to another and it

depends on the traders' common opinion. Prices trend up in the optimistic market whether a pessimistic one causes prices reduction. The prices are drawn to a certain

equilibrium point existing for each issue. The location of such point can be found out by using the Linear Regression analysis whether Standard Error Channel analysis

presents the data about the cyclic direction of the prices as well as the forecasts for possible trend changes.

Long Headed Doji Pattern

This is a bullish signal, particularly when around price support levels.

Double Tops / Double Bottoms

A double top is simply two peaks. After the second peak is formed a breakout through the base is a signal of a possible reversal of the trend in prices. In the case of a

double bottom, two troughs form and an expectation follow for the possibility of a trend reversal if the market price rises through the base. Waiting for confirmation is

important for trading double tops or double bottoms.


17 February 2013

` 11

Disclaimer

This research document has been prepared by Al Rajhi Capital Company (“Al Rajhi Capital”) of Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. It has been prepared for the general use of Al Rajhi

Capital’s clients and may not be redistributed, retransmitted or disclosed, in whole or in part, or in any form or manner, without the express written consent of Al Rajhi

Capital. Receipt and review of this research document constitute your agreement not to redistribute, retransmit, or disclose to others the contents, opinions, conclusion, or

information contained in this document prior to public disclosure of such information by Al Rajhi Capital. The information contained was obtained from various public

sources believed to be reliable but we do not guarantee its accuracy. Al Rajhi Capital makes no representations or warranties (express or implied) regarding the data and

information provided and Al Rajhi Capital does not represent that the information content of this document is complete, or free from any error, not misleading, or fit for

any particular purpose. This research document provides general information only. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes an offer or an invitation

to make an offer, to buy or sell any securities or other investment products related to such securities or investments. It is not intended to provide personal investment

advice and it does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific person who may receive this

document.

Investors should seek financial, legal or tax advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any securities, other investment or investment strategies discussed or

recommended in this document and should understand that statements regarding future prospects may not be realized. Investors should note that income from such

securities or other investments, if any, may fluctuate and that the price or value of such securities and investments may rise or fall. Fluctuations in exchange rates could

have adverse effects on the value of or price of, or income derived from, certain investments. Accordingly, investors may receive back less than originally invested. Al Rajhi

Capital or its officers or one or more of its affiliates (including research analysts) may have a financial interest in securities of the issuer(s) or related investments,

including long or short positions in securities, warrants, futures, options, derivatives, or other financial instruments. Al Rajhi Capital or its affiliates may from time to time

perform investment banking or other services for, solicit investment banking or other business from, any company mentioned in this research document. Al Rajhi Capital,

together with its affiliates and employees, shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential loss or damages that may arise, directly or indirectly, from any use of

the information contained in this research document.

This research document and any recommendations contained are subject to change without prior notice. Al Rajhi Capital assumes no responsibility to update the

information in this research document. Neither the whole nor any part of this research document may be altered, duplicated, transmitted or distributed in any form or by

any means. This research document is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality,

state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or which would subject Al Rajhi Capital or any of its

affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction.

Contact us Research Department Tel : +966 1 2119319 [email protected]

Al Rajhi Capital Research Department Head Office, King Fahad Road P.O. Box 5561, Riyadh 11432 Kingdom of Saudi Arabia Email: [email protected] Al Rajhi Capital is licensed by the Saudi Arabian Capital Market Authority, License No. 07068/37.

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