1

08 OCT 2014

Daily Market Outlook

Here comes the fall

Expect the SET to adjust further down today, following a wave of global

pessimism regarding growth arising from both weak data and the IMF

report out yesterday. With German data not just bad enough to spur action

by ECB, but sufficiently worse than expectations to scare investors,

European and US equities have traded down, and Asia is expected to

follow suit today.

Factors to watch

Local issues:

IMF projects 1% 2014 growth. In its World Economic Outlook released

yesterday, the IMF projected Thailand to grow at 1% this year and 4.6% next

year, with political tensions being the individual factor set to pull down Thai

growth. Thai growth is slated to be lowest in the ASEAN-5, Indonesia,

Malaysia, the Philippines and Vietnam. (The Nation) Comment: IMF report

would have been written before the most recent announcement of

governments Bt324bn fiscal injection. Also, whereas IMF thinks the

political situation will weigh on growth, surveys show FDI is not

bothered by martial law, etc., per se. Growth, for next year at least,

could still top 4.6%.

Private sector involvement and regulations reform regarding

infrastructure urged. The Joint Standing Committee on Commerce,

Industry and Banking has called for more private-sector involvement in

government’s infrastructure plans. JSCCIB also proposed amendments on

four crucial industrial laws to the NCPO, including lowering corporate tax,

getting rid of sentences for operators inadvertently importing illegal goods.

Government response has been positive and proposals are expected to be

introduced to NLA within next few months. (The Nation)

The National Reform Council (NRC) is likely to hold its first meeting on

October 21, which will primarily focus on choosing the council's president

and vice president. The NRC members are scheduled to report at Parliament

from today until October 15. (The Nation)

Set-ups claims in Koh Tao murders. After Thai police have charged two

Myanmar workers on the island for the now notorious murder of two British

tourists, the Myanmar embassy-appointed lawyer for the two workers have

said the workers confessed under duress and were scapegoated. The British

embassy was notably absent during the press conference meant to be

represented during the press conference to announce that the suspects

have been charged (Bangkok Post) Comment: Case deals a blow

Thailand can ill-afford during the critical high season.

Court to hear Channel 3 case today: The Administrative Court will today

order an urgent hearing on the dispute between the NBTC and Channel 3

over the broadcast of its analog programs. The court hearing follows the

failure of both parties to seek an appropriate solution. Channel 3 operator

Bangkok Entertainment Co (BEC) on Monday submitted its petition to the

Court asking for another extension of the deadline to drop its program from

their networks from October 11. (The Nation)

Siam Wellness plans to list on the MAI in 4Q14 to fund expansion into

neighboring countries in the AEC. This would increase paid-up capital to

Bt142.5mn from Bt100mn via 170mn new floating shares at a par of 25 stand

Source: Bisnews, Bloomberg

Thailand Research Department:

Mr. Warut Siwasariyanon (No.017923) Tel: 02 680 5041

Mr. Narudon Rusme (No.29737) Tel: 02 680 5056

Mr. Napat Siworapong (No.49234) Tel: 02 680 5094

Major Indices Close Chg %Chg

SET 1,539.39 -3.7 -0.2

SET50 1,028.87 -2.5 -0.2

SET P/E (x) 17.9

SET P/BV (x) 2.2

SET Div. Yield (%) 2.9

Dow Jones 16,719.39 -272.5 -1.6

S&P 500 1,935.10 -29.7 -1.5

NASDAQ 4,385.20 -69.6 -1.6

UK 6,495.58 -68.1 -1.0

Germany 9,086.21 -123.3 -1.3

France 4,209.14 -77.4 -1.8

Japan 15,783.83 -107.1 -0.7

South Korea 1,972.91 +4.5 +0.2

Hong Kong 23,422.52 +107.5 +0.5

China 2,363.87 +6.2 +0.3

Taiwan 9,040.81 -54.3 -0.6

Singapore 3,243.99 -9.3 -0.3

Malaysia 1,833.54 -7.3 -0.4

Indonesia 5,032.84 +32.7 +0.7

Philippines 7,239.38 -7.7 -0.1

Trading Summary Buy Sell Net

Institution 5,829 4,350 1,480

Proprietary 4,456 5,772 -1,315

Foreign 9,360 9,504 -145

Individuals 28,539 28,558 -19

Total Trading Value 48,184 Btm

Most Active Value Value Close %Chg

TRUE 3,728 10.80 +1.9

KBANK 1,620 223.00 +1.4

BBL 1,369 197.00 -0.3

PTT 1,336 367.00 -0.8

BTS 1,315 10.20 +3.0

Commodity Futures Close Chg %Chg

US Crude 88.85 -1.5 -1.6

Brent Crude 92.11 -0.7 -0.7

Gold 1,212.40 +5.1 +0.4

FX Rates Close Chg %Chg

USD/THB 32.57 -0.0 -0.1

EUR/USD 1.27 +0.0 +0.1

USD/JPY 108.02 -0.8 -0.7

USD/CNY 6.14 +0.0 +0.0

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08 OCT 2014

Daily Market Outlook

apiece. Siam Wellness achieved revenue of Bt326mn last year, up 31% from

2012, for a net profit of Bt55mn, up by 12.2%. (Bangkok Post)

Com7 International plans to list on the SET next year in order to raise funds

to expand its ASEAN footprint. The company is a leading IT retail chain,

which operates Banana IT, Banana Mobile, iStudio, iBeat, and uStore. The

firm expects about 10% of its revenue from international markets within the

next three years and would need at least Bt1bn to increase its number of

retail shops to 500 branches, up from 300. (The Nation)

Global issues:

Particularly weak German data was enough to unnerve not just European investors, but also US ones and both equities and rates investors on both side of the Atlantic reacted yesterday to poorer Eurozone growth prospects. Asian markets are likely to carry on that negative momentum today and the HSBC data for China could potentially worsen sentiments.

Worsening outlook for global growth, both from Germany and the IMF report which revised global growth downwards, combined with rising geopolitical tensions, have led to a marked increase in risk-aversion. VIX index closed at 17.20, up 11.2% from Monday. (Reuters)

USA

Wall Street followed from negative European lead. With weak European lead, US equities also traded down. The Dow went down 1.60% and the S&P went down 1.51%. The 10-year Treasury yield plunged 8bps to 2.34%, lowest level in 5 weeks, while the 2-yaer yield eased 3bps to 0.51%. Comment: This flattening of the curve suggests markets anticipate rates may now be raised later than investors had been expecting, with global growth concerns weighing on the Fed’s decision.

Europe

German underperformance spurs bearishness. August Industrial Output

for Germany contracted 4.0% MoM, versus a previous 1.6% expansion and

an expected 1.5% drop, representing the biggest drop since January 2009,

the start of the global recession. Following this, FTSE closed 1.0% lower,

DAX fell 1.3%, CAC slid 1.8%, while Milan closed 1.7% lower and IBEX

dropped 2.0%. (Bloomberg)

Asia

Markets adversely affected by Eurozone growth. As of Wednesday

morning, regional equities all opened lower. HSBC Chinese Services data

today will go some way in mitigating, or worsening growth concerns.

(Bloomberg).

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08 OCT 2014

Daily Market Outlook

Commodities

Weaker US dollar propped gold up despite slowing growth concerns, and

gold closed at US$1,209, up from Monday’s close at US$1,207. (Bloomberg,

Reuters).

World oil prices resumed a months-long rout on Tuesday to close at

their lowest in more than two years, pressured by reduced economic and

demand growth forecasts. US November crude fell by US$1.49 to

US$88.85. Brent November crude fell by 68 cents to settle at US$92.11 a

barrel. (Reuters)

Date Regions Economic Indicators

3-Oct-14

CNY PMI-service

EU PMI-service/composite

Retail sales

US

Nonfarm Payrolls Trade Balance

Unemployment rate PMI-service/composite

7-Oct-14 JPY BOJ Interest rate decision

US Consumer Credit change

8-Oct-14 CNY PMI

JPY Machinery Orders

9-Oct-14 JPY Bank Lending

US Jobless Claims

10-Oct-14 CNY Money Supply

JPY Consumer confidence Index

Date XD

3-Oct-14 MCOT 0.31 Baht Cash

8-Oct-14 BLA 0.05 Baht Cash

BLA 5:2 Stock

10-Oct-14

AEONTS 1.60 Baht Cash

IRCP 0.02206 Baht Cash

IRCP 5.0378:1 Stock

LIT 1.25 Baht Cash

VNG 0.2222222 Baht Cash

VNG 5:1 Stock

20-Oct-14 AP 0.02 Baht Cash

AP 10:1 Stock

21-Oct-14 HMPRO 0.013889 Baht Cash

HMPRO 8:1 Stock

24-Oct-14 VIH 0.00740741 Baht Cash

VIH 15:1 Stock

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08 OCT 2014

Daily Market Outlook

ADVANC BTS GRAMMY MCOT PTT SC SSI TMBAOT CIMBT HANA MINT PTTEP SCB SSSC TNITYASIMAR CK HEMRAJ NKI PTTGC SCC SVI TOPBAFS CPF ICC NOBLE QH SCSMG SYMC TRCBANPU CPN INTUCH PAP RATCH SE-ED TCAP TRUEBAY CSL IRPC PG ROBINS SIM THAI TTWBBL DRT IVL PHOL RS SIS THCOM TVOBCP DTAC KBANK PR S&J SITHAI THRE UVBECL EASTW KKP PRANDA SAMART SNC TIP VGIBKI EGCO KTB PS SAMTEL SPALI TISCO WACOALBROOK ERW LPN PSL SAT SPI TKT

2S ASP CHOW GBX JUBILE LRH NMG PPP SINGER TCP TOG UACACAP AYUD CM GC KBS LST NSI PREB SIRI TF TPC UMIAF BEC CNT GFPT KCE MACO NWR PRG SKR TFD TPCORP UMSAHC BFIT CPALL GL KGI MAJOR OCC PT SMT TFI TPIPL UPAIT BH CSC GLOW KKC MAKRO OFM PYLON SNP THANA TRT UPOICAKP BIGC DCC GOLD KSL MBK OGC QTC SPCG THANI TRU UTAMANAH BJC DELTA GSTEL KWC MBKET OISHI RASA SPPT THIP TSC VIBHAAMARIN BLA DTC GUNKUL L&E MFC PB SABINA SSF TICON TSTE VIHAMATA BMCL ECL HMPRO LANNA MFEC PDI SAMCO STANLY TIPCO TSTH VNGAP BWG EE HTC LH MODERN PE SCCC STEC TK TTA VNTAPCO CCET EIC IFEC LHBANK MTI PF SCG SUC TLUXE TTCL YUASAAPCS CENTEL ESSO INET LHK NBC PJW SEAFCO SUSCO TMILL TUF ZMICOASIA CFRESH FE ITD LIVE NCH PM SFP SYNTEC TMT TWFPASK CGS FORTH JAS LOXLEY NINE PPM SIAM TASCO TNL TYM

A ASIA CITY EASON HTECH KASET MJD PL SF SVOA TMI UOBKHAAV BAT-3K CMR EMC HYDRO KC MK POST SGP SWC TNDT UPFAEC BCH CNS EPCO IFS KCAR MOONG PRECHA SIMAT SYNEX TNPC UWCAEONTS BEAUTY CPL F&D IHL KDH MPIC PRIN SLC TBSP TOPP VAROAFC BGT CRANE FNS ILING KTC MSC Q-CON SMIT TCCC TPAC VTEAGE BLAND CSP FOCUS INOX KWH NC QLT SMK TEAM TPP WAVEAH BOL CSR FPI IRC LALIN NIPPON RCI SOLAR TGCI TR WGAI BROCK CTW FSS IRCP LEE NNCL RCL SPC TIC TTI WINAJ BSBM DEMCO GENCO IT MATCH NTV ROJNA SPG TIES TVD WORKAKR CHARAN DNA GFM JMART MATI OSK RPC SRICHA TIW TVIALUCON CHUO DRACO GJS JMT MBAX PAE SCBLIF SSC TKS TWZANAN CI EA GLOBAL JTS MDX PATO SCP STA TMC UBISARIP CIG EARTH HFT JUTHA PRINC PICO SENA SUPER TMD UEC

Corporate Governance Report disclaimer

The disclosure of the survey result of the Thai Institute of Directors

Association (“IOD”) regarding corporate governance is made pursuant

to the policy of the Office of the Securities and Exchange Commission.

The survey of the IOD is based on the information of a company listed

on the Stock Exchange of Thailand and the Market for Alternative

Investment disclosed to the public and able to be accessed by a

general public investor. The result, therefore, is from the perspective of

a third party. It is not an evaluation of operation and is not based on

inside information.

The survey result is as of the date appearing in the Corporate

Governance Report of Thai Listed Companies. As a result, the survey

result may be changed after that date, Asia wealth Securities Company

Limited does not conform nor certify the accuracy of such survey result.

Score Range Number of Logo Description

90 - 100 Excellent

80 - 89 Very Good

70 - 79 Good

60 - 69 Satisfactory

50 - 59 Pass

Below 50 No logo given N/A

รายงานการประเมนิการก ากบัดแูลกจิการ (CGR) โดยสมาคมสง่เสรมิสถาบนักรรมการบรษิทัไทย 2556 Corporate Governance Report of Thai Listed Companies (CGR). CG Rating by the Thai Institute of Directors Association (IOD)

in 2013.

5

08 OCT 2014

Daily Market Outlook

Branch Address Phone Fax

Head Office 540 Floor 7,14,17 , Mercury Tower, Ploenchit Road,

Lumphini, Pathumwan Bangkok 10330

02-680-5000 02-680-5111

Silom 191 Silom Complex Building,21st Floor Room 2,3-1

Silom Rd., Silom, Bangrak, Bangkok, 10500 Thailand

02-630-3500 02-630-3530-1

Asok

159 Sermmitr Tower, 17th FL. Room No.1703,

Sukhumvit 21 Road, Klong Toey Nua, Wattana,

Bangkok 10110

02-261-1314-

21

02-261-1328

Pinklao

7/3 Central Plaza Pinklao Office Building Tower B, 16th

Flr., Room No.1605-1606 Baromrajachonnanee Road,

Arunamarin, Bangkoknoi, Bangkok 10700

02-884-7333 02-884-7357,

02-884-7367

Chaengwattana

99/99 Moo 2 Central Plaza Chaengwattana Office

Tower, 22nd Flr., Room 2204 Chaengwattana Road,

Bang Talad, Pakkred, Nonthaburi 11120

02-119-2300 02-8353006

Chaengwattana 2

9/99 Moo 2 Central Plaza Chaengwattana Office Tower,

22nd Flr.,

Room 2203 Chaengwattana Road, Bang Talad, Pakkred,

Nonthaburi 11120

02-119-2388 02-119-2399

Mega Bangna 39 Moo6 Megabangna, 1st Flr., Room 1632/7 Bangna-

Trad Road, Bangkaew Bangplee, Samutprakarn 10540

02-106-7345 02-105-2070

Rayong 356/18 Sukhumvit Road, Nuen-Phra Sub District,

Muang District, Rayong Province 21000

038-808200 038-807200

Khonkaen 26/9 Srijanmai Road, Tamboonnaimuang, Khon Khaen

40000

043-334-700 043-334-799

Chonburi 44 Vachiraprakarn Road, Bangplasoi, Muang Chonburi,

Chonburi 20000

038-274-533 038-275-168

Chaseongsao

233-233/2 Moo2 1st Flr., Sukprayoon Road, Na Meung

Sub-District, Meung District, Chachoengsao 24000

038-981-587 038-981-591