Daily i Forex Report 18 SEP 2013

7/29/2019 Daily i Forex Report 18 SEP 2013

1/15

DAILY IFOREX REPORT

18th

SEP 2013


2/15

BP/USD 1.5807

BP/EUR 1.1890

UR/USD 1.3287

BPAUD 1.7080

BP/CAD 1.6344

BP/CHF 1.4713

BP/CZK 30.633

BP/DKK 8.865

BP/HKD 12.253

BP/INR 100.22

BP/JPY 157.44

BP/NOK 9.340

BP/NZD 1.945

BP/PLN 5.006

BP/SEK 10.330

BP/SGD 2.007

BP/THB 50.33

BP/TRY 3.205

BP/ZAR 15.731

BP/CNY 9.723

Euro Lifted by Best ZEW Surveys since 2009;Pound Struggles after CPI

Forex: Pound, Euro Unlikely To See StrongResponse To CPI And ZEW Data

ASIA/EUROPE FOREX NEWS WRAP

The US Dollar is broadly lower following a weak start to the trading week

yesterday, but price action has started to shift from favoring the New Zealand

Dollar over its Australian counterpart and the Euro over the British Pound. As

the trading day has marched forward, theres been an increased interest

surrounding the Euro as regional bond yields have crept higher.

Typically when European bond yields have moved up (particularly in Italy and

Spain), the Euro has suffered. Today, however, yields are not increasing

because investors are selling on fear; rather, improving economic growth

prospects have reduced the demand for fixed income and boosted demand

for riskier assets like stocks (the German DAX is holding near its all-time highset yesterday at 8626.11).

Indeed, signs of a stronger Euro-Zone are emerging, with the ZEW Surveys

surging to their best outputs in four years. Here are the figures stoking Euro

strength:

-Euro-Zone ZEW Survey: Expectations (SEP): 58.6 from 44.0

- German ZEW Survey: Current Situation (SEP): 30.6 versus 20.0 expected,

from 18.3

- German ZEW Survey: Expectations (SEP): 49.6 versus 45.0 expected, from

42.0

Meanwhile, the British Pound is seeing a bout of weakness following the soft

CPI report. The report underscores shifting consumer expectations as the Ban

of England attempts to keep interest rates pointed lower. Accordingly, if data

today proliferates and becomes a trend, there is scope for a short-term,

fundamentally based reversal in the EURGBP.

TRADING TIPS BUY EURUSD ABOVE 1.3380 TGT

1.3400/1.3420 SL 1.3350

BUY USDJPY ABOVE 99.40TGT 99.60/99.80SL 99.10

BUY GBPUSD ABOVE1.5930 TGT1.5950/1.5970 SL 1.5900

HEADLINES


3/15

HOURLY EURUSD CHARTHOURLY EURUSD CHART

ANALYSIS

EURUSD LOOKS UPWARD

TREND: BULLISH

STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS

MACD =>.0003(BULLISH SIGNAL)

RSI => 59(BULLISH SIGNAL)


4/15

HOURLY USDJPY CHART

ANALYSIS

USDJPY LOOKS UPWARD

TREND: BULLISH



RSI =>50(BULLISH SIGNAL)


5/15

HOURLY GBPUSD CHART

ANALYSIS

GBPUSD LOOKS UPWARD

TREND: BULLISH





6/15

HOURLY EURGBP CHART

ANALYSIS

EURGBP LOOKS UPWARD

TREND: BULLISH





7/15

HOURLY USD INDEX CHART

ANALYSIS

USD INDEX LOOKS DOWNWARD

TREND: BEARISH

STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE

MACD =>.0001(BEARISH SIGNAL)

RSI =>41(BEARISH SIGNAL)


8/15

Date Time Currency Event Importance Actual Forecast Previous N

SunSep 15

21:45REINZ House PriceIndex (MoM) (AUG)

Low 2.1% -0.5%

21:45REINZ House Sales(YoY) (AUG)

Low 8.5% 14.7%

21:45REINZ Housing PriceIndex (AUG)

Low 3746.6 3669.1

22:00NZD Westpac NZConsumer Confidence(3Q)

Medium 115.4 116.6

22:30NZD PerformanceServices Index (AUG)

Medium 53.2 58.2

23:01GBP RightmoveHouse Prices (MoM)(SEP)

Low -1.5% -1.8%

23:01GBP RightmoveHouse Prices (YoY)(SEP)

Low 4.5% 5.5%

MonSep 16

Troika Officials Start8th and 9th Review ofPortugal's Aid Plan

Low

09:00EUR Euro-ZoneConsumer Price Index- Core (YoY) (AUG F)

High 1.1% 1.1% 1.1%

09:00EUR Euro-ZoneConsumer Price Index(YoY) (AUG F)

High 1.3% 1.3% 1.3%

09:00EUR Euro-ZoneConsumer Price Index(MoM) (AUG)

Medium 0.1% 0.1% -0.5%

09:00EUR Euro-Zone LaborCosts (YoY) (2Q)

Low 0.9% 1.7%

12:30

CAD InternationalSecuritiesTransactions(Canadian dollar)(JUL)

Low 6.09B 8.00B -15.43B

12:30USD EmpireManufacturing (SEP)

Low 6.29 9.1 8.24

13:00CAD Existing HomeSales (MoM) (AUG)

Low 2.8% 0.2%

13:15USD IndustrialProduction (AUG)

Medium 0.4% 0.5% 0.0%

ECONOMIC CALLENDER


9/15

13:15USD Manufacturing(SIC) Production(AUG)

Medium 0.7% 0.5% -0.4%

13:15USD CapacityUtilization (AUG)

Low 77.8% 77.9% 77.6%

21:00USD EIA Gasoline andDiesel Fuel Update

Low

Tue

Sep 1701:30

AUD RBA PolicyMeeting - SeptemberMinutes

Medium

01:30AUD New MotorVehicle Sales (MoM)(AUG)

Low 0.8% -3.6%

01:30AUD New MotorVehicle Sales (YoY)(AUG)

Low 0.2% 3.0%

02:00CNY Foreign DirectInvestment (YoY)(AUG)

Medium 0.6% 12.5% 24.1%

02:00

CNY ConferenceBoard China AugustLeading EconomicIndex

Low 269.3 267.4

04:00JPY TokyoCondominium Sales

(YoY) (AUG)

Low 53.3% 31.6%

06:00EUR EU 27 New CarRegistrations (AUG)

Low -5.0% 5.0%

08:00EUR Euro-ZoneCurrent Accountn.s.a. (euros) (JUL)

Low 26.6B 27.8B

08:00EUR Euro-ZoneCurrent Account s.a.(euros) (JUL)

Low 16.9B 19.8B

08:30LIVE

GBP Consumer PriceIndex (YoY) (AUG)

High 2.7% 2.7% 2.8%

08:30LIVE

GBP Core ConsumerPrice Index (YoY)

(AUG)

High 2.0% 2.1% 2.0%

08:30LIVE

GBP Consumer PriceIndex (MoM) (AUG)

Medium 0.4% 0.5% 0.0%

08:30GBP Producer PriceIndex Output Coren.s.a. (YoY) (AUG)

Medium 1.0% 1.1% 1.1%

08:30GBP Producer PriceIndex Output n.s.a.(YoY) (AUG)

Medium 1.6% 1.8% 2.1%

08:30GBP ONS HousePrices (YoY) (JUL)

Low 3.3% 3.4% 3.1%

08:30GBP Producer PriceIndex Input n.s.a.(MoM) (AUG)

Low -0.2% 0.2% 1.2%

08:30GBP Producer PriceIndex Input n.s.a.(YoY) (AUG)

Low 2.8% 3.0% 5.1%

08:30GBP Producer PriceIndex Output Coren.s.a. (MoM) (AUG)

Low 0.0% 0.1% 0.1%

08:30GBP Producer PriceIndex Output n.s.a.(MoM) (AUG)

Low 0.1% 0.2% 0.2%

08:30GBP Retail PriceIndex (AUG)

Low 251.0 250.8 249.7

08:30

GBP Retail PriceIndex Ex MortInt.Payments (YoY)

(AUG)

Low 3.3% 3.20% 3.2%


10/15

08:30GBP Retail PriceIndex (MoM) (AUG)

Low 0.5% 0.40% 0.0%

08:30GBP Retail PriceIndex (YoY) (AUG)

Low 3.3% 3.20% 3.1%

09:00EUR German ZEWSurvey (EconomicSentiment) (SEP)

High 49.6 45.0 42

09:00EUR Euro-Zone ZEWSurvey (EconomicSentiment) (SEP)

Medium 58.6 44

09:00EUR German ZEWSurvey (CurrentSituation) (SEP)

Medium 30.6 20.0 18.3

09:00EUR Euro-Zone TradeBalance (euros) (JUL)

Low 18.2B 16.5B

09:00EUR Euro-Zone TradeBalance s.a. (euros)(JUL)

Low 11.1B 15.0B 13.5B

12:30LIVE

USD Consumer PriceIndex Ex Food &Energy (YoY) (AUG)

High 1.8% 1.7%

12:30LIVE

USD Consumer PriceIndex (YoY) (AUG)

High 1.6% 2.0%

12:30LIVE

USD Consumer PriceIndex Ex Food &Energy (MoM) (AUG)

Medium 0.2% 0.2%

12:30LIVE

USD Consumer PriceIndex (MoM) (AUG)

Medium 0.2% 0.2%

12:30CAD ManufacturingShipments (MoM)(JUL)

Low 0.5% -0.5%

12:30USD Consumer PriceIndex Core Index s.a.(AUG)

Low 234.341 234.004

12:30USD Consumer PriceIndex n.s.a. (AUG)

Low 233.963 233.596

13:00USD Net Long-termTIC Flows (JUL)

Medium -$15.0B -$66.9B

13:00USD Total Net TICFlows (JUL)

Low -$19.0B

14:00USD NAHB HousingMarket Index (SEP)

Medium 58 59

22:45NZD Current AccountBalance (2Q)

Low -1.9B -0.663B

22:45NZD Current AccountDeficit-GDP Ratio (2Q)

Low -4.8% -4.8%

Wed

Sep 18

USD Federal ReserveFOMC Two-dayMeeting Begins

High

00:00AUD ConferenceBoard Leading Index(JUL)

Medium -0.2%

00:30AUD Westpac LeadingIndex (MoM) (JUL)

Medium 0.0%

01:30CNY China AugustProperty Prices

Low

08:30GBP Bank of EnglandMinutes

Medium


11/15

09:00CHF ZEW Survey(Expectations) (SEP)

Medium 7.2

09:00EUR Euro-ZoneConstruction Outputs.a. (MoM) (JUL)

Low 0.7%

09:00EUR Euro-ZoneConstruction Outputw.d.a. (YoY) (JUL)

Low -3.0%

11:00USD MBA MortgageApplications (SEP 13)

Low -13.5%

12:30USD Building Permits(MoM) (AUG)

Medium -0.4% 2.7%

12:30USD Housing Starts(MoM) (AUG)

Medium 3.0% 5.9%

12:30USD Building Permits(AUG)

Low 950K 943K

12:30USD Housing Starts(AUG)

Low 923K 896K

14:30USD DOE Cushing OKCrude Inventory (SEP13)

Low -639K

14:30USD DOE U.S. CrudeOil Inventories (SEP13)

Low -219K

14:30USD DOE U.S.Distillate Inventory(SEP 13)

Low 2586K

14:30USD DOE U.S.Gasoline Inventories(SEP 13)

Low 1658K

18:00LIVE

USD Fed Pace of MBSPurchase Program(SEP)

High $40B $40B

18:00LIVE

USD Fed Pace ofTreasury PurchaseProgram (SEP)

High $35B $45B

18:00LIVE

USD Fed ReleasesSummary ofEconomic Projections

High

18:00LIVE

USD Federal OpenMarket CommitteeRate Decision (SEP18)

High 0.25% 0.3%

18:30LIVE

USD Fed's BernankeHolds PressConference inWashington

High

22:45NZD Gross DomesticProduct (YoY) (2Q)

High 2.3% 2.4%

22:45NZD Gross Domestic

Product (QoQ) (2Q)

Medium 0.2% 0.3%

23:50JPY MerchandiseTrade Balance Total(Yen) (AUG)

Medium -1113.8B -1024.0B

23:50JPY AdjustedMerchandise TradeBalance (Yen) (AUG)

Low -824.5B -944.0B

23:50JPY MerchandiseTrade Exports (YoY)(AUG)

Low 14.8 12.2

23:50JPY MerchandiseTrade Imports (YoY)(AUG)

Low 18.7 19.6

ThuSep 19

JPY Bank of JapanGovernor Kuroda

Speaks in Tokyo

Medium


12/15

JPY Bank of JapanPolicy Board MemberKiuchi Speaks

Low

01:30AUD RBA FXTransactionsGovernment (AUG)

Low -509M

01:30AUD RBA FXTransactions Other(AUG)

Low 26M

01:30

AUD RBA ForeignExchange Transaction(Australian dollar)

(AUG)

Low 436M

01:30

JPY BOJ BoardMember KiuchiSpeech & PressConference

Low

04:30JPY All IndustryActivity Index (MoM)(JUL)

Medium 0.3% -0.6%

05:00JPY Coincident Index(JUL F)

Medium 106.4

05:00JPY Leading Index(JUL F)

Medium 107.8

05:45

CHF SECO September

2013 EconomicForecasts

Medium

06:00CHF Trade Balance(Swiss franc) (AUG)

Medium 2.38B

06:00CHF Exports (MoM)(AUG)

Low -1.9%

06:00CHF Imports (MoM)(AUG)

Low 3.2%

07:30LIVE

CHF Swiss NationalBank Rate Decision(SEP 19)

High 0.0% 0.0%

08:30

GBP Retail Sales Incl.

Auto (YoY) (AUG)Medium

3.3% 3.0%

08:30GBP Retail Sales(YoY) (AUG)

Medium 3.2% 3.1%

08:30GBP Retail Sales Incl.Auto (MoM) (AUG)

Low 0.4% 1.1%

08:30GBP Retail Sales(MoM) (AUG)

Low 0.0% 1.1%

10:00GBP CBI TrendsSelling Prices (SEP)

Low 2 0

10:00GBP CBI Trends Total

Orders (SEP)

Low 2 0

12:30USD Initial JoblessClaims (SEP 13)

Medium 330K 292K

12:30CAD Wholesale Sales(MoM) (JUL)

Low 1.50% -2.8%

12:30USD ContinuingClaims (SEP 6)

Low 2871K

12:30LIVE

USD Current AccountBalance (2Q)

Low -$96.3B -$106.1B

14:00USD Existing HomeSales (MoM) (AUG)

Medium -2.6% 6.5%


13/15

14:00USD LeadingIndicators (AUG)

Medium 0.6% 0.6%

14:00USD Philadelphia Fed.(SEP)

Medium 10 9.3

14:00USD API MonthlyStatistical Report

Low

14:00USD Existing HomeSales (AUG)

Low 5.25M 5.39M

14:30USD EIA Natural GasStorage Change (SEP13)

Low 65

22:00NZD ANZ JobAdvertisements(MoM) (AUG)

Low 3.5%

22:45NZD Net Migration s.a.(AUG)

Low 1980

23:50JPY Japan BuyingForeign Bonds (Yen)(SEP 13)

Medium -66.5B

23:50JPY Japan BuyingForeign Stocks (Yen)(SEP 13)

Medium 38.1B

23:50JPY Foreign BuyingJapan Bonds (Yen)(SEP 13)

Low -197.3B

23:50JPY Foreign BuyingJapan Stocks (Yen)(SEP 13)

Low 185.4B

FriSep 20

JPY Bank of JapanGovernor KurodaSpeaks at Kisaragi-kaiMeeting

Low

03:00NZD Credit CardSpending (YoY) (AUG)

Medium 4.7%

03:00NZD Credit CardSpending (MoM)

(AUG)

Low -0.3%

05:30JPY NationwideDepartment StoreSales (YoY) (AUG)

Low -2.5%

05:30JPY TokyoDepartment StoreSales (YoY) (AUG)

Low -1.0%

07:00JPY ConvenienceStore Sales (YoY)(AUG)

Low -0.8%

08:30GBP Public Finances(PSNCR) (Pounds)(AUG)

Medium -19.6B

08:30GBP PSNB exInterventions (AUG)

Low 13.3B 0.1B

08:30GBP PSNB ex RoyalMail, APF (AUG)

Low 13.3B 0.5B

08:30GBP Public SectorNet Borrowing(Pounds) (AUG)

Low 11.9B -1.6B

12:30CAD Bank CanadaConsumer Price IndexCore (YoY) (AUG)

Medium 1.2% 1.4%

12:30CAD Consumer PriceIndex (YoY) (AUG)

Medium 1.1% 1.3%

12:30CAD Bank CanadaConsumer Price IndexCore (MoM) (AUG)

Low 0.1% 0.0%


14/15

12:30CAD CPI Core SA(MoM) (AUG)

Low 0.1%

12:30CAD CPI SA (MoM)(AUG)

Low 0.2%

12:30CAD Consumer PriceIndex (AUG)

Low 123.1

12:30CAD Consumer PriceIndex (MoM) (AUG)

Low 0.1% 0.1%

14:00EUR Euro-ZoneConsumer Confidence(SEP A)

Medium -14.5% -15.6

16:30USD Fed's GeorgeSpeaks on theEconomy in New York

Low

16:55

USD Fed's BullardSpeaks on Economyand Monetary Policyin NY

Low

17:45USD Fed'sKocherlakota Speaksin New York

Low


15/15

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Daily i Forex Report 18 SEP 2013

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Transcript of Daily i Forex Report 18 SEP 2013