Global change impacts on ecosystem services and the vulnerability

of the human-environment system– The European assessment ATEAM

Dagmar Schröter and Marc J. Metzger

Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

European vulnerability study

ATEAM-project, www.pik-potsdam.de/ateam

17 partners and sub-contractors, Funded by the European Union, 2001-2004.

1. To assess potential impacts of global change on ecosystem services in Europe

2. To translate these impacts into maps of our vulnerability these maps should inform the decision-making of stakeholders about adaptation options to global change

Objectives

Examples of questions to tackle• Which regions are most vulnerable to global change?• Which sectors are the most vulnerable in a certain region?• Which scenario is the least harmful for a sector?

The environmental dimension of vulnerability

• Ecosystems provide services that sustain and fulfill human life (see 1st MA book, Alcamo et al. 2003)

• To know the potential impacts of global change on ecosystem services within a specific region is to understand an essential part of this region’s vulnerability.

food production

flood protection

carbon sequestration

biodiversity

shelter for life stockgame reserve

fibre production

beautyrecreation

pollination

tourist attraction

fodder production

stabilising micro-climate

fire preventionslope stability water storage

dialogue between stakeholders and scientists

European Vulnerability Assessment

maps of vulnerability

multiple scenarios of global change: CO2

climate, socio-econ.land use, N deposition

ecosystem models

changes in ecosystem

servicescombined indicators

changes in adaptive capacity

socio-economic

Metzger & Schröter 2004 (submitted).

Methodology

Consistent global change scenarios

• Spatially explicit: 10' x 10' (ca. 16 x 16 km)• 4 time slices (1990, 2020, 2050, 2080)• 4 Socio-Economic Scenarios• 4 Emission Trajectories (greenhouse gases)• 17 Climate Scenarios (four climate models, one control)• 7 Land Use Scenarios• 4 Nitrogen Deposition Scenarios

As input to our ecosystem and adaptive capacity models.

Sectors, ecosystem services and modelled indicators

Metzger & Schröter 2004 (submitted).

Sectors Services Indicators

Agriculture Food & fibre production Bioenergy production

• Agricultural land area (Farmer livelihood)• Suitability of crops• Biomass energy yield

Forestry Wood production • Tree productivity: growing stock & increment

Carbon storage Climate protection • Carbon storage in vegetation• Carbon storage in soil

Water Water supply (drinking, irrigation, hydropower)Drought & flood prevention

• Runoff quantity • Runoff seasonality

Biodiversity BeautyLife support processes(e.g. pollination)

• Species richness and turnover (plants, mammals, birds, reptiles, amphibian)

• Shifts in suitable habitats

Mountains Tourism (e.g. winter sports)Recreation

• Snow (elevation of snow line)

Agriculture• Decline in arable land (cropland, grassland)

• Surplus land (up to over 10 % of European land surface)

• Land demand for bioenergy may go up, CO2 offset may approach 15% of 1990-emissions in 2080

• Climate driven decline in soil organic carbon, partly counteracted by land use and stimulated plant growth

• Crop suitabilitiy changes; some current agricultural areas become too hot and too dry to support agriculture

Vulnerability

exposure sensitivity adaptive capacity

potential impact

vulnerability

Integration: Vulnerability2080A1 wood production

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V = f(PI, AC)A relationship that is not specified beyond high PI and low AC high V, etc...

Visual overlay

… our digital atlas: ATEAM mapping toolCa. 3200 maps and many more summarising charts. Under construction...

...which areas, and who is vulnerable to global change?

How can we adapt?

dialogue between stakeholders and scientists

maps of vulnerability

multiple scenarios of global change: CO2

climate, socio-econ.land use, N deposition

ecosystem models

Potential impacts

combined indicators

changes in adaptive capacity

socio-economic

Schröter et al. 2004 (in press), Metzger & Schröter 2004 (submitted).

Conclusions: Vulnerability• Vulnerable region: Mediterranean seems most vulnerable within Europe -

multiple potential impacts [water, forestry, agriculture, tourism, carbon storage]and low generic adaptive capacity

• Vulnerable sectors: - Agriculture? Soil. Extensification potential. How do farmers decide? CAP...- Forestry? Fire risk. Biofuel potential. Shift to other species.- Carbon storage. Soil respiration and fire vs. net primary production- Mountain tourism. Reliable snowcover declines. Risks and discomfort?- Water. Droughts, floods. Seasonality changes. Hydropower, storage capacity.- Biodiversity. Current debate. Syndrome of impoverishment? Dynamic reserve

management.• Dialogue between science and stakeholders is an important part of the results.

Informed by best science, fair, focussed and sustained. Coordination, moderation, social learning.

• The digital Atlas developed with stakeholders is a useful communication tool in this dialogue.

- What will be most helpful to stakeholders? Maps of V? Maps of AC? Maps of 'raw data'? Which time slices? Scenarios?

Thank you!

Rik Leemans (Wageningen University, NL)Wolfgang Cramer, Sönke Zaehle, Anne de la Vega-Leinert (Global Change and Natural Systems, PIK, DE)... all other ATEAMers www.pik-potsdam.de/ateamCarlo Jaeger (Global Change and Social Systems, PIK, DE)Participants of the Vulnerability Summerschool 2003 (from all over) www.pik-potsdam.de/avecTony Patt (PIK and Boston University)Colin Polsky (Clark University, USA)Bill Clark (Harvard University, USA) Max Posch, Lex Bouwman, Jo Alcamo (RIVM, NL)

And many thanks to:

Adaptive Capacity

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Knowledge

Technology

Infrastructure

Flexibility

Economic Power

Awareness

Ability

Action

Adaptive Capacity

Female activity rate

Income inequality

Literacy rate

Enrolment ratio

R & D expenditure

Number of patents

N. of telephone lines

Number of doctors

GDP per capita

Age dependency ratio

World trade share

Budget surplus

Indicators Determinants Components Index

‘the ability to implement planned adaptation measures’ (based on IPCC TAR)

Vulnerability map: Wood production

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economic

environmental

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Compare regions, scenarios, time slices using....

2080 compared to baseline

Does it matter?

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Carbon emissions from energy & industry vs. carbon uptake by land use change

Zaehle et al. 2004 (in prep).

Compared to anthropogenic carbon emissions, even the most optimistic potential sink is very small.