Cyworld Growth: Sheer Volume vs User...
Transcript of Cyworld Growth: Sheer Volume vs User...
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2007.12.7. FridayOnline Social Networks Workshop
MSR Cambridge
Hawoong Jeong and Sue MoonKAIST
in collaboration withYong-Yeol Ahn, Hyunwoo Chun,
Seungyeop Han, Yong-Ho Kim, Haewoon Kwak
Cyworld Growth:Sheer Volume vs User Activity
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Overview
Cyworld Growth in Sheer VolumeTipping point vs Saturation
Cyworld Guestbook LogGrowth in activity
Cyber-only relationshipTechnology-assisted relationship management
Evolution of social networking servicesOngoine/Future work
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CyWorld
Largest SNS in South KoreaStarted in September 200110 million users in 2004Over 20 million users out of 49 million population
Front runner of many featuresFriend (il-chon) relationship GuestbookTestimonial (il-chon-pyung)Photos - scrapsAvatar in cyber home
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My CyWorld “Mini-Homepage”
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LET’S BEGIN WITH CYWORLD GROWTH IN VOLUME
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Cyworld Data Sets
4 snapshots of complete ilchon relationshipsApril, September, Novmber of 2005November of 2006
Guestbook logsJune 2003 to October 2005(writer, guestbook owner, timestamp)8.4 billion messages from 17 million users
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Cyworld Growth in Sheer Volume
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Tipping Point
DefinitionDerived from “White Flight” social phenomenonPoint of “phase transition” due to “peer pressure”
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Existing Tipping Point Models
Input parametersPeer pressure
Insufficient for our dataLack of resistant factors
Delay in adoptionIndividual variation in adoption
Still only explains our data partially
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Cyworld Growth in Sheer Volume
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HOW LONG CAN CYWORLDMAINTAIN EXPONENTIAL GROWTH?
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Cyworld Growth in Sheer Volume
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Average Path Length
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< 5 about 90%
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Evolution of Avg Path Length
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Shrinking Diameter [KDD2005]
•Constant or slowly growing diameter assumption
=> Not true
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Cyworld Saturation
Volume-wiseExponential growth from 2003 to 2004Continues to grow in 2005 and on
TopologicallyNetwork has started to “densify”
No network growth model fits SNSDelay in ilchon buildingBounded population
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SO FAR WE HAVE SEEN ONLY GROWTH IN SHEER VOLUME
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NOW IN-DEPTH LOOK AT CYWORLD USER ACTIVITY
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Cyworld Guestbook Activity
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Terms for Activity
Node Degree# of guestbooks a user visited and wrote comments
Node Strength# of total comments written
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Evolution of Node Strength/Degree
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Cyworld Activity
Activity dataTrue representation of “livelihood” of Cyworld
Saturation in activity more prevailing
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OFF-LINE VS CYBER-ONLYRELATIONSHIPS
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Dunbar’s Number = 150
Theoretical Max #of individuals with whom a set of people can maintai
n a social relationship
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Random NetworkSmall-World Network Scale-Free Network
Two kinds of networks!
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Ilchon Degree Distribution
Two Scaling Regions
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MySpace Data Set
Largest in the worldBegan in Jul 2003Has 200 million by Sep 2007
Snowball sampledDuring Sep/Oct 2006Random seed to 100,000 usersAbout 23% of users had friend list hidden
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Orkut Data Set
Google SNSBegan in Sep 2002Became official Google service in Jan 2004Began as invitation-only; open nowHas 67 million users in August 2007
Snowball sampledDuring Jun to Sep 2006100,000 users
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Cyworld, MySpace, and Orkut
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Evolution of Degree Distributions
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Two kinds of driving force
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Clustering Coefficient C(k)
# of existing links / # of all possible links between a link’s adjacent neighborsClose to 1, close to a mesh
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Clustering Coefficient Distribution
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Degree correlation knn
Degree k ~ mean degree of adjacent neighbors of nodes with degree kAssortativity: characteristic of knn distribution
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Assortative Mixing
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M. E. J. Newman, Phys. Rev. Lett. 89, 208701 (2002)
“Social”
“non-social”
+
-
degree
assortative
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Degree Correlation
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Not assortative
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Median Strength vs Ilchon Degree
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200-400 bin=10, >400 bin=100
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Off-line vs Cyber-only
Why does Cyworld has both user behaviors?
Significance of 200Push Dunbar’s Number to 200 w/ technology“Cyworld Number
Yet to be valudatedEmail networks?
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Ongoing/Future Work
Growth modelExisting preferential attachment-based models do not fitForest fire model? Extensions?
Cyworld number = 200How much does technology enhance our life?
Explicit vs implicit communitiesClubs, towns vs cliquish behavior
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Thoughts on Evolution of SNS
Language barriersPlatforms
Applications as “nodes” or “entity of peer pressure”