Cuyahoga County: After 200 Years a Turning Point… and a Stacked Deck

Thomas Bier

Maxine Goodman Levin College of Urban Affairs

Cleveland State Universityt.bier@csuohio.edu

6/25/12

Consider

• Fundamental underlying dynamics.• Long-term big picture.• Response.

The Situation

• After 200 years of development, Cuyahoga County is close to being Ohio’s first built-out county. Few green fields remain.

As Cuyahoga’s Supply of Greenfield Land Has Shrunk, Development Has

Shifted to Adjacent Counties*

Cuyahoga’s Share of 7-County New Housing

(units)

1985 44%

2010 20%

*Geauga, Lake, Lorain, Medina, Portage, Summit

Average Annual Percentage Change Residential Real Estate Value, 1985-2010

Average Annual Percentage Change in Value Commercial Real Estate, 1985-2010

Average Annual Percentage Change in ValueIndustrial Real Estate, 1985-2010

Cuyahoga County is Getting Old

• Old → obsolete real estate, outdated schools, worn-out recreation facilities, abandoned buildings, leaking water lines, dying trees, broken curbs and sidewalks.

• In 40 years half the homes in Cuyahoga County will be at least100 years old.

• Lakewood will reach that point in six years.

Cuyahoga is Losing Middle- and Upper-Income Residents

• 80% of suburban residents move outward to buy their next home, half to an adjacent county. Most moves are to new/newer.

• Those who prefer inner locations have little choice .

• More move out of county than in resulting in population loss and spreading decline.

Cuyahoga’s Losses to Adjacent Counties 2004-2009

In Out Net

Households 33,000 48,000 -15,000

Persons 51,000 87,000 -36,000

Income $1.28 b $2.38 b -$1.1 b

36,000 equals a Westlake – in five years

Percent of County’s Land in Townships

Geauga 96%

Medina 90

Portage 86

Lorain 70

Lake 53

Summit 35

Cuyahoga 2

Population Change 1985-2010

Cuyahoga County -175,000

Adjacent counties +258,000

If Adjacent Counties Add 258,000 Residents in Next 25 Years, It Will Mean

• 100,000 more households• 200,000 more cars (+ service vehicles)• 175,000 new homes (7,000/year)• 350,000 acres used (550 sq miles)

If Cuyahoga County Loses 175,000 Residents In Next 25 Years, It Will Mean

• 75,000 homes abandoned• $1.5 b property value lost ($20,000/unit)• $5 b income lost• Cleveland’s population below 300,000

The Wrong Road

• Cuyahoga is on the road to shrinking tax base, higher taxes, reduced bond rating – while neighboring counties continue to grow.

• The region is on the road to more disunity.

The Turning Point: From Building “Out” to Rebuilding “In”

• Renewal and redevelopment of Cuyahoga’s old core – Cleveland and inner suburbs – must become a central priority. There’s no other way to build tax base.

• Good things are happening but not enough.

Renewal and Redevelopment Have Been Slight – Why?

• The economy.• Complications and costs that don’t occur in

green field projects – such as demolition, site assembly, environmental cleanup.

Deal Closed on Multi-Million-Dollar Clifton Pointe Project in Lakewood

Demolition of three Sloan Avenue homes, construction of 17 luxury townhomes set to begin this winter

Cleveland’s New Uptown in University Circle

Why Have Renewal and Redevelopment Been Slight?

• Our current system of government is not oriented to promote it.

• Policy is stacked in favor of green field development – that’s growth; redevelopment is “replacement.”

Why Have Renewal and Redevelopment Been Slight?

• Home rule is taken to mean “It’s your problem, you fix it” -- fix obsolete real estate, outdated schools, worn-out recreation facilities, abandoned buildings, leaking water lines, dying trees, broken curbs and sidewalks.

Catch 22

• “You fix it” – Old places need tax revenues to drive renewal and redevelopment but their tax bases are inadequate because of lack of R&R. It’s a Catch 22 in home rule.

• Raising taxes worsens the predicament.

DIY Won’t Work

• Most places can’t “fix it”; the load is too much, even with the best of leadership.

• They need partners, policies and plans that make R&R a central priority in the county, region, state.

Ways Forward:Un-stacking the Deck

Cuyahoga County

• Main issue is “We’re built out” – use it as rationale for action.

• We've reached a natural and inevitable point in our evolution where, for the sake of our tax base and the well-being of all our communities, we must focus on renewal and redevelopment of our inner suburbs and Cleveland.

Cuyahoga County

• 59 jurisdictions and county government: consider the next 25 years, lock arms and do it.

• Give people reason to think that domino-like decline is not inevitable.

Cuyahoga County

• Reduce annual move-outs by 3,000 (would balance in and out).

• Increase annual share of region’s new housing from 20% to 50% (3,000 more units).

• Maximize land bank and site preparation.

• Pool resources and target on R&R.

• Establish incentives to locate in core.

• Gain stability, attractiveness, growth.

The Region

• Produce a multi-county plan to balance old and new, in and out across Northeast Ohio

• Northeast Ohio Sustainable Communities Consortium working on 12-county plan. www.neoscc.org

• Regional Prosperity Initiative advocating resource gain sharing to foster cooperative planning and development. www.neo-rpi.org

The State

• Make investments according to county and regional plans.

• Change system of local taxes (income and real estate) as it fuels decline and sprawl.

Cuyahoga County After 200 years a Turning Point,

from Building Out to Rebuilding In

• Major turning points are rare, but when one occurs the new direction opens new opportunity. There is opportunity.

• It’s our problem, we’ll fix it.

Postscript: Cultural Comparison

• Scottish government: “Regeneration is the holistic process of reversing the economic, physical and social decline of places where market forces alone won’t suffice.”

“Achieving a Sustainable Future: Regeneration Strategy”, 2011.