Curt Payne Fidelity GPRO Model
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FY 2012 FY 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 FY 2014 Est. FY 2015 Est. FY 2016 Est. FY 2017 12/31/2012 12/31/2013 03/30/2014 06/30/2014 09/30/2014 12/30/2014 12/30/2014 12/30/2015 12/30/2016 12/30/2017 Revenue 526,016 985,737 33,958 244,605 279,971 633,913 1,394,000 1,845,397 2,535,233 3,558,996 - Cost of Revenue (298,530) (623,953) (12,236) (141,736) (155,932) (330,100) (736,952) (975,588) (1,353,953) (1,900,698) Gross Profit 227,486 361,784 21,789 102,869 124,039 303,813 657,048 2,820,985 3,889,185 5,459,693 - Operating Expenses 173,869 263,081 16,501 119,535 110,582 (130,125) (514,487) 2,500,173 3,513,824 4,979,735 Operating Income 53,617 98,703 5,211 (16,666) 13,457 173,688 142,560 320,812 375,361 479,959 - Other Expenses 453 6,342 151 135 102 (1,115) (9,618) 6,620 7,746 9,905 Pretax Income 53,210 91,329 5,060 (18,202) 11,673 172,573 132,943 314,191 367,615 470,054 - Income Tax Expense 20,948 30,751 518 1,639 (2,947) (50,313) (50,978) 120,478 140,964 180,245 Net Income 32,262 60,578 4,542 (19,841) 14,620 122,260 81,965 193,713 226,651 289,809 FY 2012 FY 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 FY 2014 Est. FY 2015 Est. FY 2016 Est. FY 2017 2012-12-31 2013-12-31 03/30/2014 06/30/2014 09/30/2014 12/30/2014 12/30/2014 12/30/2015 12/30/2016 12/30/2017 Revenue Growth 87% 41% 32% 37% 40% Gross Margin 43.2% 36.7% 64.2% 42.1% 44.3% 48% 47% 153% 153% 153% EBITDA Margin 10.9% 11.2% 14.9% -7.4% 4.2% 10% 17% 15% 13% 13% Operating Margin 10.2% 10.0% 13.4% -8.1% 4.8% 27.4% 10.2% 17.4% 14.8% 13.5% Camera Mix (Pacific Crest 2014 Holiday) Survey Mix Price Wtd Price Average Rank Weight Wtd Avg Growth Hero 5 17% 500 85 16% 5 17% 3% Hero 4 Silver 15% 375 56.25 46% 3 21% 10% Hero 4 Black 15% 425 63.75 200% 2 21% 42% Hero 3+ Silver 14% 250 35 YT video minutes watched 270% 1 23% 62% Hero 38% 130 49.4 Instagram Followers 118% 4 18% 21% Other 1% 295 2.95 Total 2014 Social Media Growth 100% 138% Wtd Average Camera Order Value 100% 292.35 $ 9.8% Accessories (based on Amazon rating) Conversion Rate Premium 15% Combined Discount/Conversion Rate 11.3% Mounts Rel Wt Price Wtd Price Tripod Mount 323 6.99 2257.77 2014 Actual Units Sold 5,200,000 Suction Cup Mount 362 30.15 10914.3 2014 Actual Revenue per Unit Sold 268.08 $ Headstrap Mount 473 11.87 5614.51 2014 Actual Revenue 1,394,000,000 $ Grab Bag of Mounts 254 11.98 3042.92 Sportsman Mount 51 69.99 3569.49 Total 2015 Social Media Growth 138% 1463 25398.99 Combined Discount/Conversion Rate 11.3% Sales Growth Discount/Conversion Rate 15.5% Average Accessory Price 17.36 $ Wtd Average Accessory Order Value (1.5 Acces.) 26.04 $ Projected 2015 Total Unit Sales 5,200,000 Projected 2015 Revenue per Unit Sold 354.88 $ GoPro Camera Cases Price Projected 2015 Revenue 1,845,397,024 $ Cases (equal to # units sold) 49.99 Upgrade Discount Factor 73% % Increase over 2014 Units Sold 0% Average Case Revenue Per Order 36.49 % Increase over 2014 Revenue 32% % Increase in Revenue per Unit Sold 32% Totals Wtd Camera Order Value 292.35 Wtd Accessory Order Value 26.04 Avg Case Order Value 36.49 Avg Total Customer Order Value 354.88 $ Projected 2015 Net Income 226,651 $ Projected 2015 Net Income 226,651 $ Avg. 12-month Price 83.97 $ Shares Outstanding 125,780,000 Shares Outstanding 125,780,000 Current Price 48.53 $ Projected 2015 EPS 1.80 Projected 2015 Rev/Share 14.67 $ Upside 35.44 $ Projected 2015 P/E Ratio 45 Projected 2015 P/S Ratio 5.92 % Upside 73% Projected 12-month Price 81.09 Projected 12-month Price 86.86 $ GPRO Projected Valuation Comparable Discount/Conversion Rate (AMZN) Growth Forecast Social Media & FY 2015 Revenue Growth Drivers Valuation Analysis Valuation - P/E Valuation - P/S Potential Current Unit Mix & Avg Order Value Analysis Social Media Statistics Facebook fan growth Youtube subscribers YT video views
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Transcript of Curt Payne Fidelity GPRO Model
FY 2012 FY 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 FY 2014 Est. FY 2015 Est. FY 2016 Est. FY 2017
12/31/2012 12/31/2013 03/30/2014 06/30/2014 09/30/2014 12/30/2014 12/30/2014 12/30/2015 12/30/2016 12/30/2017
Revenue 526,016 985,737 33,958 244,605 279,971 633,913 1,394,000 1,845,397 2,535,233 3,558,996
- Cost of Revenue (298,530) (623,953) (12,236) (141,736) (155,932) (330,100) (736,952) (975,588) (1,353,953) (1,900,698)
Gross Profit 227,486 361,784 21,789 102,869 124,039 303,813 657,048 2,820,985 3,889,185 5,459,693
- Operating Expenses 173,869 263,081 16,501 119,535 110,582 (130,125) (514,487) 2,500,173 3,513,824 4,979,735
Operating Income 53,617 98,703 5,211 (16,666) 13,457 173,688 142,560 320,812 375,361 479,959
- Other Expenses 453 6,342 151 135 102 (1,115) (9,618) 6,620 7,746 9,905
Pretax Income 53,210 91,329 5,060 (18,202) 11,673 172,573 132,943 314,191 367,615 470,054
- Income Tax Expense 20,948 30,751 518 1,639 (2,947) (50,313) (50,978) 120,478 140,964 180,245
Net Income 32,262 60,578 4,542 (19,841) 14,620 122,260 81,965 193,713 226,651 289,809
FY 2012 FY 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 FY 2014 Est. FY 2015 Est. FY 2016 Est. FY 2017
2012-12-31 2013-12-31 03/30/2014 06/30/2014 09/30/2014 12/30/2014 12/30/2014 12/30/2015 12/30/2016 12/30/2017
Revenue Growth 87% 41% 32% 37% 40%
Gross Margin 43.2% 36.7% 64.2% 42.1% 44.3% 48% 47% 153% 153% 153%
EBITDA Margin 10.9% 11.2% 14.9% -7.4% 4.2% 10% 17% 15% 13% 13%
Operating Margin 10.2% 10.0% 13.4% -8.1% 4.8% 27.4% 10.2% 17.4% 14.8% 13.5%
Camera Mix (Pacific Crest 2014 Holiday) Survey Mix Price Wtd Price Average Rank Weight Wtd Avg Growth
Hero 5 17% 500 85 16% 5 17% 3%
Hero 4 Silver 15% 375 56.25 46% 3 21% 10%
Hero 4 Black 15% 425 63.75 200% 2 21% 42%
Hero 3+ Silver 14% 250 35 YT video minutes watched 270% 1 23% 62%
Hero 38% 130 49.4 Instagram Followers 118% 4 18% 21%
Other 1% 295 2.95 Total 2014 Social Media Growth 100% 138%
Wtd Average Camera Order Value 100% 292.35$
9.8%
Accessories (based on Amazon rating) Conversion Rate Premium 15%
Combined Discount/Conversion Rate 11.3%
Mounts Rel Wt Price Wtd Price
Tripod Mount 323 6.99 2257.77 2014 Actual Units Sold 5,200,000
Suction Cup Mount 362 30.15 10914.3 2014 Actual Revenue per Unit Sold 268.08$
Headstrap Mount 473 11.87 5614.51 2014 Actual Revenue 1,394,000,000$
Grab Bag of Mounts 254 11.98 3042.92
Sportsman Mount 51 69.99 3569.49 Total 2015 Social Media Growth 138%
1463 25398.99 Combined Discount/Conversion Rate 11.3%
Sales Growth Discount/Conversion Rate 15.5%
Average Accessory Price 17.36$
Wtd Average Accessory Order Value (1.5 Acces.) 26.04$ Projected 2015 Total Unit Sales 5,200,000
Projected 2015 Revenue per Unit Sold 354.88$
GoPro Camera Cases Price Projected 2015 Revenue 1,845,397,024$
Cases (equal to # units sold) 49.99
Upgrade Discount Factor 73% % Increase over 2014 Units Sold 0%
Average Case Revenue Per Order 36.49 % Increase over 2014 Revenue 32%
% Increase in Revenue per Unit Sold 32%
Totals
Wtd Camera Order Value 292.35
Wtd Accessory Order Value 26.04
Avg Case Order Value 36.49
Avg Total Customer Order Value 354.88$
Projected 2015 Net Income 226,651$ Projected 2015 Net Income 226,651$ Avg. 12-month Price 83.97$
Shares Outstanding 125,780,000 Shares Outstanding 125,780,000 Current Price 48.53$
Projected 2015 EPS 1.80 Projected 2015 Rev/Share 14.67$ Upside 35.44$
Projected 2015 P/E Ratio 45 Projected 2015 P/S Ratio 5.92 % Upside 73%
Projected 12-month Price 81.09 Projected 12-month Price 86.86$
GPRO Projected Valuation
Comparable Discount/Conversion Rate (AMZN)
Growth Forecast
Social Media & FY 2015 Revenue Growth Drivers
Valuation Analysis
Valuation - P/E Valuation - P/S Potential
Current Unit Mix & Avg Order Value Analysis
Social Media Statistics
Facebook fan growth
Youtube subscribers
YT video views
