Current State of the Science in Integrated

Assessment

Key Bridge MarriottArlington, VA

Jae Edmonds November 13, 2008

Science Challenges and Future Directions for Integrated Assessment Research

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OVERVIEW

What is Integrated Assessment Modeling (IAM)?

How is the IAM community interacting with the Climate Modeling (CM) and Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability (IAV)?

What might the future hold for IAMs?

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What is integrated assessment modeling?

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Integrated assessment modeling describes the interactions between human and natural earth systems

Integrated Assessment Model

Human Systems

Earth Systems

ENERGY

Economy

Security

Settlements

Food

Health

Managed Ecosystems

TechnologyScience

Transport

Population Other

Sea Ice Carbon Cycle

Earth System Models

EcosystemsOceans

Atmospheric Chemistry

Hydrology

Coastal Zones

IAMs conduct human systems research, historically focused on the energy-emissions interface.

IAMs integrate human and natural Earth systems to provide insights that are unavailable through traditional disciplinary research.

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We are not alone

Integrated Assessment Model

Human Systems

Earth Systems

ENERGY

Economy

Security

Settlements

Food

Health

Managed Ecosystems

TechnologyScience

Transport

Population Other

Sea Ice Carbon Cycle

Earth System Models

EcosystemsOceans

Atmospheric Chemistry

Hydrology

Coastal Zones

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USA: MIT Integrated Global System ModelIntegrated Assessment Model

Human Systems

Earth Systems

ENERGY

Economy

Security

Settlements

Food

Health

Managed Ecosystems

TechnologyScience

Transport

Population Other

Sea Ice Carbon Cycle

Earth System Models

EcosystemsOceans

Atmospheric Chemistry

Hydrology

Coastal Zones

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USA: MiniCAM and MERGE

Aggregated land-use and land-cover to 14-region scale

GHG Emissions

Carbon Dioxide Sulfur DioxideMethaneNitrous OxideOthers….

Energy Prices

MAGIC

SCENGEN

Climate Change Patterns

Temp Change SLR

Energy Supply

Primary Production CoalOilGasBiomassNuclear

SecondaryFuelsSolids, LiquidsGasesElectricityHydrogen

Primary Production CoalOilGasBiomassNuclear

SecondaryFuelsSolids, LiquidsGasesElectricityHydrogen

Ag Land-Use

Land Prices (food& fiber demands) & Biomass Price

Land-Use &ProductionCropsAnimalsBiomass Wood

Ag Land-Use

Land Prices (food& fiber demands) & Biomass Price

Land-Use &ProductionCropsAnimalsBiomass Wood

Land Prices (food& fiber demands) & Biomass Price

Land-Use &ProductionCropsAnimalsBiomass Wood

Bio

mass

P

rice

Bio

mass

P

rod

uct

ion

Energy Demand

Total Energy Demand (Economic activity, population, efficiency, prices)

Demand for specific forms (Service preferences, prices)

Energy Demand

Total Energy Demand (Economic activity, population, efficiency, prices)

Demand for specific forms (Service preferences, prices)

Total Energy Demand (Economic activity, population, efficiency, prices)

Demand for specific forms (Service preferences, prices)

Emissions

MiniCAM

Geospacially explicit land use data

Geospacially energy supply data

14-region MiniCAM aggregations

Integrated Assessment Model

Human Systems

Earth Systems

ENERGY

Economy

Security

Settlements

Food

Health

Managed Ecosystems

TechnologyScience

Transport

Population Other

Sea Ice Carbon Cycle

Earth System Models

EcosystemsOceans

Atmospheric Chemistry

Hydrology

Coastal Zones

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EU: The IMAGE model

http://www.mnp.nl/image

Socio-economic system: 24 / 26 world regions

Environmental system: 0.5 x 0.5 degree

Integrated Assessment Model

Human Systems

Earth Systems

ENERGY

Economy

Security

Settlements

Food

Health

Managed Ecosystems

TechnologyScience

Transport

Population Other

Sea Ice Carbon Cycle

Earth System Models

EcosystemsOceans

Atmospheric Chemistry

Hydrology

Coastal Zones

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Riahi, et al. 2007Riahi, et al. 2007Riahi, et al. 2007Riahi, et al. 2007

EU: The IIASA Integrated Assessment Framework

GHG EmissionsIndustry, Energy, and Land-based Mitigation

Deforestation & Afforestation(modeled on 0.5 x 0.5)

Integrated Assessment Model

Human Systems

Earth Systems

ENERGY

Economy

Security

Settlements

Food

Health

Managed Ecosystems

TechnologyScience

Transport

Population Other

Sea Ice Carbon Cycle

Earth System Models

EcosystemsOceans

Atmospheric Chemistry

Hydrology

Coastal Zones

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Japan: The Asia Integrated Model (AIM)

2000

2050

2100

structure of AIM/CGE

production factormarket

capital

laborland

Final demand sector

resource

Production sectors

produced commoditymarket

food

serviceenergy

...

tradeJapan

China...

Energy technology model: energy efficiencyAgriculture model: land productivity

...

Annual parameter change

GHGsemissions

GHGsemissions

climatechange

feedbackeg. land productivity change due to climate changescenarios: population, GDP, ... 

AIM land-use (Cropland) downscaling

Integrated Assessment Model

Human Systems

Earth Systems

ENERGY

Economy

Security

Settlements

Food

Health

Managed Ecosystems

TechnologyScience

Transport

Population Other

Sea Ice Carbon Cycle

Earth System Models

EcosystemsOceans

Atmospheric Chemistry

Hydrology

Coastal Zones

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BERAC Program Review

The DOE/SC Integrated Assessment Research Program has been highly successful

“It is hard to understate the influence of IARP on current scientific and policy thinking.”“The IARP funded work has been widely cited in these assessments, and participation by IARP researchers as IPCC authors has improved the quality of the assessments and their scientific rigor.”

“A recent trend, however, is that national government financial support for these non-U.S. models has grown to the point that it is now, even taken on a country by country basis, considerably larger than the entire IARP budget.”“…it is a troubling possibility that non-U.S. models may well dominate future discussions of climate change mitigation and adaptation, not to mention negotiations for the next round of international policy, should they surpass the policy and scientific capacity of the IARP models.”

http://www.sc.doe.gov/ober/berac/IARP_Report_Final.pdf

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IAMs Provide Anthropogenic Drivers of Natural Systems

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Integrated assessment modeling has four roles in climate change research

1. IAMs historical role has been to provide data and models, grounded in human systems research, relevant to understanding the scale and timing of the drivers of climate change over decades to century time scales. (A major interface with the climate modeling community CMC.)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100Year

GTC

/Yea

r

IGSM_REF

MERGE_REF

MINICAM_REF

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Work Plan for an Anticipated Major Assessments in the 2013-14 Time Frame

FOUR PHASES

The Preparatory Phase and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)Parallel Phase: Prepare climate and socio-economic scenarios in parallel

Product 5: Integration of CMC Ensembles

with New IAM Scenarios AvailableProduct 3: New IAM

Scenarios

Product 2: RCP-based CMC ensembles &

pattern scaling

Product 4: Story Lines

Product 1: RCPs

delivered to CMC

12 monthsFall 2007

24 months 18 months 12 monthFall 2008

Fall 2010

Spring 2012

Spring 2013

Parallel Phase Integration Phase

Preparatory

Phase

Publication Lag

Integration Phase:“Pair up” climate scenarios with new socio-economic scenarios; and scaling for IAV research; IAV-IAM “teaming to more fully integrate representation of impacts in IAMs and IAV research.

Publication Phase

AR

5 WG

I R

eport

AR

5 WG

II & III

Reports

2013

2014

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The Noordwijkerhout Report

Available either at the IPCC web sitewww.ipcc.ch (then click on “New Scenarios”)http://www.ipcc.ch/meetings/session28/doc8.pdf

Or, at the AIMES web sitehttp://www.aimes.ucar.edu/DOCUMENTS/IPCC_Final _Draft_Meeting_Report_3May08.pdf

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Scenarios by Whom?

For the first time scenarios are being organized by the modeling community and NOT the IPCC.

The IAM community has organized itself via the IAMC.

The CM community has organized it self via the WCRP/IGBP.

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Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)From the Existing Literature, Already Underway

RCPsSelection,

Extension to 2300, Downscaling

CMC Develops RCP-based Ensemble Runs

12 monthsFall 2007

18 months 12 monthFall 2008

Fall 2010

Spring 2012

Spring 2013

Integration Phase

Preparatory

Phase

Publication Lag

8.5 W/m2

6 W/m2

4.5 W/m2

<3 W/m2

RCP8.5>8.5 W/m2 in 2100, Rising

RCP6~6 W/m2 at stabilization after 2100Stabilization without exceeding target

RCP4.5~4.5 W/m2 at stabilization after 2100Stabilization without exceeding target

RCP3-PD<3 W/m2 in 2100peak & decline stabilization

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1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

Rad

iativ

e Fo

rcin

g (W

/m2)

MiniCAM 4.5

IMAGE 2.6

AIM 6.0

MES-A2R 8.5

IMAGE 2.9

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The “Handshake” Document

There is a “Handshake”document.Work plan for data exchange between the Integrated Assessment and Climate Modeling community in support of Preparatory Phase of scenario analysis for climate change assessment (Representative Community Pathways).http://www.aimes.ucar.edu/activities/AR5_Coordination/RCP%20handshake_jun07.doc

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IAM

IAV

CMC

IAV research based on new CM and IAM scenarios

Continued Development and Application of IAM Scenarios

IAV Research Based on AR4 Climate and SRES IAM scenarios

Integration of CMC Ensembles with

IAM NEW Scenarios

RCPsSelection,

Extension to 2300, Downscaling

Story Lines

CMC Develops RCP-based Ensemble Runs

Development of New IAM Scenarios ReferenceReference

Stabilization

StabilizationTechnolog

y

Technology

PolicyPolicy

RegionalRegional

Reference Sta

bilizatio

n Technology Poli

cy

Regional

Reference Sta

bi lizatio

n Technology Poli

cy

Regional

Reference Sta

bi lization Tec

hnology Poli

cy

Regional

ReferenceReference

Stabilization

StabilizationTechnolog

y

Technology

PolicyPolicy

RegionalRegional

Reference Sta

bilization Tec

hnology Poli

cy

Regional

Reference Sta

bilization Tec

hnology Poli

cy

Regional

Reference Sta

bi lization Tec

hnology Poli

cy

Regional

Reference Sta

bi lization Tec

hnology Poli

cy

Regional

12 monthsFall 2007

24 months 18 months 12 monthFall 2008

Fall 2010

Spring 2012

Spring 2013

Parallel Phase Integration Phase Publication Lag

Beyond 2008: IAMs, CMs, and IAV

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IAMs Represent Complex Systems and Reveal Emergent

Properties

Establishing Risk Analysis

Webster et al., Climatic Change, 2003

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Net Land Use Change Emissions

-5,000

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

TgC/

yr

550 UCT 500 UCT 450 UCT Reference550 FFICT500 FFICT450 FFICT

Land Use Change EmissionsCumulative Emissions from Land-use Change

CO2 LimitTax All Carbon

Tax FF&I Only

Reference550 ppm -35 131500 ppm -36 177450 ppm -37 221

Cumulative Land Use Change Emissions

(PgC)

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IGSM TEM has calculated net CH4 emissions and consumption in the Pan-Arctic region during the 1990s. Positive values indicate the net CH4 release to the

atmosphere, and negative values indicate the CH4 uptake from the atmosphere.

IN RESPONSETO CLIMATECHANGE,NET ANNUALEMISSIONS IN PAN-ARCTICINCREASEDBY ABOUT 8 Tg

CH4OVER 20th CENTURY TO51 Tg

IN 2000

Ref: Zhuang

et al,Global Biogeochem.Cycles, 2004

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Corn Price When Carbon Is Valued But No Bioenergy Is Produced

Significant crop price escalation occurs if carbon is valued, even in the absence of purpose grown bioenergy production.

Prior to 2040 the influence of bioenergy is negligible.Prior to 2040 crop price escalation, relative to the reference scenario, is predominantly driven by the value of carbon. 0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Ind

ex

20

00

=1

.0

FirstBest_CCS_500_No BioFirstBest_CCS_500Reference500 NoLUCO2 Price

Corn Price

Integrated Assessment Model

Human Systems

Earth Systems

ENERGY

Economy

Security

Settlements

Food

Health

Managed Ecosystems

TechnologyScience

Transport

Population Other

Sea Ice Carbon Cycle

Earth System Models

EcosystemsOceans

Atmospheric Chemistry

Hydrology

Coastal Zones

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IAMs Are Decision Support Tools

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CCSP SAP 2.1a: Reference scenario energy systems

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

EJ/y

r

Non-Biomass Renewables

Nuclear

Commercial Biomass

Coal

Natural Gas

Oil

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

EJ/y

r

Non-Biomass Renewables

Nuclear

Commercial Biomass

Coal

Natural Gas

Oil

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

EJ/y

r

Non-Biomass Renewables

Nuclear

Commercial Biomass

Coal

Natural Gas

Oil

MERGE

IGSM

MiniCAM

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MERGE: The value of energy technology

30

25

20

15

10

5

2000

$US

Trill

ions

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

% G

DP Loss from

Reference

4.7 Target 3.4 Target

3B1B

3B

1B

Pessimistic

Optimistic

3B

1B3B

1B

Pessimistic

Optimistic

At 5% through 2200

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Rest of World

Fossil w/ CCS

143

Rest of World

Nuclear

75

Rest of World

Industry

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Keep Eye on Potential Influence of Major EmittersU

.S. C

umul

ativ

e In

vest

men

t (5

Year

Bud

get P

lan)

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What does the future hold for Integrated Assessment Modeling?

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Future Challenges for IAMs

Increased geographic specificity—for both land use and emissions of short-lived species.

Shorter time steps.

Longer time horizons—2300.

Closer interface with the CMs and the IAV community.

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Two Parallel Development Directions

IAM in future ESMs.

ESMs are incorporating ever more Earth system processes.

Overlap with IAMs which produce land use and land cover and emissions of greenhouse gases and short-lived species.

Obvious benefit to ESMs to incorporating the human and terrestrial systems components of IAMs.

This will require close collaboration because just as great mischief is possible when social scientists try to run ESMs, similarly great mischief is possible when natural scientists try to run the human system components of IAMs.

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Regional Climate Models

Regional IAMs

Impact, Adaptation, Vulnerability Models

IAV

GlobalIAMs

ESMs

•Energy Infrastructure•Energy Demand•Water Management•Managed Land Agriculture•Economy•Health•Coastal Systems•Transportation•Manufacturing•Timber•Fisheries•Unmanaged Ecosystems•Urban air quality•Biodiversity••

Collaborations on consistent IAV component models at multiple scales

Thinking About Potential Future Directions for Integrated Assessment Modeling

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Energy- economy

Early 1990s

Energy- economy

Late 1990s

Energy- economy

Present DayIn the Decade

Ahead

Ocean carbon cycle

Ocean carbon cycle

Ocean carbon cycle

Early 1980s

Atmos. Chem. Atmos. Chem. Atmos. Chem.

Terr. carbon cycle

Climate model Climate model Climate model

Ag-land-use

Sulfur aerosol Sulfur aerosol

Non-sulfur aerosol

Energy technology

Energy technology

Energy- economy

A major feature of future work will be an increased emphasis on climate impacts on and adaptation by energy and other human and natural systems.

Biodiversity

Timber

Manufacturing

Transport

Health

Energy Infrastructure

Energy Demand

Water Management

Energy- economy

Ocean carbon cycle

Atmos. Chem.

Terr. carbon cycle

Ag-land-use

Unmanaged Ecosystems

Climate model

Sulfur aerosol

Non-sulfur aerosol

Hydrology

Energy technology

Fisheries

Fully closed systems

Energy impacts

Urban air quality

Ocean acidification

Coastal zones

Sea level and Ice

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Energy- economy

Early 1990s

Energy- economy

Late 1990s

Energy- economy

Present DayIn the Decade

Ahead

Ocean carbon cycle

Ocean carbon cycle

Ocean carbon cycle

Early 1980s

Atmos. Chem. Atmos. Chem. Atmos. Chem.

Terr. carbon cycle

Climate model Climate model Climate model

Ag-land-use

Sulfur aerosol Sulfur aerosol

Non-sulfur aerosol

Energy technology

Energy technology

Energy- economy

…while integrating with a deeper understanding of energy, technology, and economy including finer spatial resolution, longer time horizons, and closer coupling to ESMs.

Biodiversity

Timber

Manufacturing

Transport

Health

Energy Infrastructure

Energy Demand

Water Management

Energy- economy

Ocean carbon cycle

Atmos. Chem.

Terr. carbon cycle

Ag-land-use

Unmanaged Ecosystems

Climate model

Sulfur aerosol

Non-sulfur aerosol

Hydrology

Energy technology

Fisheries

Fully closed systems

Energy impacts

Urban air quality

Ocean acidification

Coastal zones

Sea level and Ice

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