Current situation and future prospects of the Japanese energy … · 2011-04-01 · Current...
Transcript of Current situation and future prospects of the Japanese energy … · 2011-04-01 · Current...
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Current situation and future prospects of
the Japanese energy and environment market
March 15, 2012
Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO)
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What is JETRO?
The Japan External Trade Organization (JETRO) is a government-related
organization that works to promote mutual trade and investment between
Japan and the rest of the world.
■Establishment: July 1958
■Office: Domestic: JETRO Headquarters Tokyo, JETRO Osaka,
The Institute of Developing Economies and
36 regional offices
Overseas: 73 offices (55 countries)
■Employee: 1,545 (824 domestic and 721 overseas)
■Main activities: -Promoting FDI into Japan
-Supporting the overseas business of Japanese firms
-Facilitating economic growth in developing countries
through trade promotion
2
(As of April 1, 2011)
(As of March, 2012)
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Current situation of the Japanese
energy and environment industry
(part 1)
-Field of environment-
3
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Present
Dokai Bay, Kitakyushu City Present
Coastal area, Kawasaki City
1960‟s
1970‟s
Addressing environmental problems
4 Source: METI
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-NOx and SPM in the air have been significantly reduced since the 1970‟s. -In FY 2006, 86% of the total measuring points had satisfied the national water quality standard.
Achievement of Japanese environmental policies
to address air, water pollution
5
Annual average NOx concentration in the air
Annual average SPM* concentration in the air
FY
0.20
0.10
0.05
0
0.15
’74 ’76 ’78 ’80 ’82 ’84 ’86 ’88 ’90 ’92 ’94 ’96 ’98 ’00 ’02 ’04 ’06
General measuring station Measuring station for automobile emission gas
mg m3
’70 ’72 ’74 ’76 ’78 ’80 ’82 ’84 ’86 ’88 ’90 ’92 ’94 ’96 ’98 ’00 ’02 ’04 ’06
0.05
0.04
0.02
0.01
0
0.03
FY
NO2
NO
[ ppm ]
*: Small Particle Materials [ ]
Achievement rate of water quality standards (based on BOD and COD)
91.2
74.5
86.3
100
’74 ’76 ’78 ’80 ’82 ’84 ’86 ’88 ’90 ’92 ’94 ’96 ’98 ’00 ’02 ’04 ’06 FY
Lakes, ponds Rivers
Sea areas
Total
55.6
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Ach
ieve
me
nt ra
tio
(%)
Source: Ministry of Environment of Japan
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COP 3 Kyoto Protocol is adopted ( ‟97 )
History of Japanese environmental policies
Phase 3: second half of ‟80s People begin to recognize
global environmental problems
Phase 1 : mid ‟50s - first half of ‟70s High-economic growth period :
industry generates environmental pollution
Itai-itai disease,
Minamata disease,
Yokkaichi pollution,
etc. ( ‟55~‟65 )
Basic Act for Environmental Pollution Control (‟67)
Fourteen bills concerning environmental pollution (including the Water Control
Pollution Law) are passed in the “Pollution Diet” (Kogai Kokkai) („70).
Frequent photo-chemical smog in Tokyo ( ‟70 ). Severe air pollution. PCB environmental
pollution.
Environment Agency is
inaugurated (‟71)
OECD review of Japan‟s environmental policy praises
pollution control efforts, but also observes the need to improve “environmental quality” (‟77 )
Ozone hole is discovered over Antarctica ( ‟85 )
Earth Summit is held in Rio de Janeiro (‟92)
Basic environmental Law (‟93)
NOx Total Emission Control System is introduced.
(‟81).
COP 3 Kyoto Protocol is adopted ( ‟97 )
PRTR Law (’99)
Soil Contamination Countermeasures
Law (‟03)
Environmental
measures
Environmental Impact Assessment Law
(‟97)
Ozone Layer Protection Law
(‟88)
Containers and Packaging Recycling
Law (‟95)
Concept of proactive action based on
“precautionary principle” becomes popular.
Environmental
situation
Wastewater Control Law (‟58) Smoke and Soot Regulation Law (‟62)
Air Pollution Control Law ‟68)
SOx Total Emission Control System is introduced (‟74)
Total pollutant load control using COD commenced (‟79)
Red tide in the Seto
Inland Sea ( ‟76 ).
Law Concerning the Improvement of Pollution Prevention Systems
in Specified Factories (‟71) Global Warming Countermeasures
Promotion Law (‟98)
Law for Promotion of Effective Utilization of Resources (‟01)
Environment-related departments and agencies at METI
(formerly MITI)
Environmental Protection and Safety
Bureau is inaugurated (‟70)
Industrial Location and Environmental
Protection Bureau is inaugurated (‟73)
Environmental Protection and Industrial Location Bureau
is inaugurated (‟93)
Industrial Science and Technology Policy and Environment Bureau is
inaugurated (‟01).
Phase 2: mid ‟70s – mid ‟80s Stable economic growth period :
pollution caused by households becomes apparent
Unemployment exceeds
3 million ( ‟99 )
6 Source: METI
Compiled based on White Paper
on the Environment 2002.
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Current situation of the Japanese
energy and environment industry
(part 2)
-Field of energy conservation-
7
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Japan: the world‟s best energy efficient country
Energy consumption index per 1-ton of iron production by blast furnace (Index of Japan: 100)
160
120 99 100
134 135
80
40
0
121
160
120 100 111 113 116 116 121 124 127 127
80
40
0
Source: ECOFYS BV, the Netherlands (2008) Source: Estimation by the Research Institute of
Innovative Technology for the Earth (2009)
104 105 106 108 113
Energy consumption index per power generated by thermal plants (Index of Japan: 100)
108
Comparison of energy basic unit of main Industrial sectors in major countries (2005)
Source: Energy White Paper (METI, 2011)
Global energy consumption per unit of GDP (2007)
(Index, Japan: 1)
16.8
0.0
2.0
18.0
16.0
14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
8.3 8.3
6.1 6.3 7.8
3.1 3.1 3.2
2.1 1.8 2.3 1.0
Lowest
8
Source: 2011 JETRO Global Trade and Investment Report
貿易投資白書(英文版)の
付加価値あたりのエネルギー
のデータを使用(峯村課長ファイル) Lowest
Total energy consumption per US$1 million of added value in industrial fields
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1973
1979
1992
1997
2005
1988
International Circumstances Domestic measures
First oil crisis
1978
Second oil crisis
1980
First conference of Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Exchange (IPCC)
1993
1995
1999
2000
2002
2006
2009
United Nations Conference on Environment and Development
(Rio Environment Summit)
Enactment of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change
First Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework
Convention on Climate Change (COP1)
Implementation of International Energy Star Program
Adoption of Kyoto Protocol at COP3
The World Summit on Sustainable Development
in Johannesburg
Kyoto Protocol went into force
COP15: Post-Kyoto protocol approach being negotiated
Establishment of the Energy Conservation Center, Japan
Launch of Moonlight Project (until 1993): Development of energy conservation technologies
including gas turbine and heat pump systems
Establishment of the so-called “Energy Saving Act”
Inauguration of the qualified energy manager system
Establishment of New Energy Technology Development Organization (NEDO)
Establishment of the Environmental Basic Act
New Sun Shine Project (new energy, energy conservation technology development):
ceramic/gas turbines, etc.
Keidanren (Federation of Economic Organizations) enacted its Voluntary Action Plan on Environment
Constitution of the Law Concerning the Promotion of Measures to Cope with Global Warming
Revision of the Energy Saving Act (Introduction of second class energy management
specified plant system and Top Runner method)
Energy conservation labeling system
Enforcement of the Basic Act on Energy Policy, Enactment of the RPS Law
Manifestation of the mid-term goal for GHG reduction
2011 COP17: Post-Kyoto protocol approach not yet decided Great East Japan Earthquake
Governmental policies for energy conservation
9
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1973
1979
1992
1997
2005
1988
International Circumstances Domestic measures
First oil crisis
1978
Second oil crisis
1980
First conference of Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Exchange (IPCC)
1993
1995
1999
2000
2002
2006
2009
United Nations Conference on Environment and Development
(Rio Environment Summit)
Enactment of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change
First Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework
Convention on Climate Change (COP1)
Implementation of International Energy Star Program
Adoption of Kyoto Protocol at COP3
The World Summit on Sustainable Development
in Johannesburg
Kyoto Protocol went into force
COP15: Post-Kyoto protocol approach being negotiated
Establishment of the Energy Conservation Center, Japan
Launch of Moonlight Project (until 1993): Development of energy conservation technologies
including gas turbine and heat pump system
Establishment of the so-called “Energy Saving Act”
Inauguration of the qualified energy manager system
Establishment of New Energy Technology Development Organization (NEDO)
Establishment of the Environmental Basic Act
New Sun Shine Project (new energy, energy conservation technology development):
ceramic/gas turbines, etc.
Keidanren (Federation of Economic Organizations) enacted its Voluntary Action Plan on Environment
Constitution of the Law Concerning the Promotion of Measures to Cope with Global Warming
Revision of the Energy Saving Act (Introduction of second class energy management
specified plant system and Top Runner method)
Energy conservation labeling system
Enforcement of the Basic Act on Energy Policy, Enactment of RPS law
Manifestation of the mid-term goal for GHG reduction
2011 COP17: Post-Kyoto protocol approach not yet decided Great East Japan Earthquake
Governmental policies for energy conservation
Energy Saving Act (Enacted in 1979) -A multi-faceted approach to promote energy saving by the combination of regulations, voluntary and economic means. -Sets responsibility and educational goals for industrial, transport and construction sectors respectively. E.g. Top Runner Program, Energy Manager System.
Lawmaking
Economic means (subsidy system, etc.)
-Support programs in R&D and technological promotion E.g. funds for heat pumps, secondary battery development.
Development and distribution of new technologies
-Government and municipality led energy saving projects and support programs for installation of energy saving devices.
9
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Post-quake energy policies
and market
10
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Solid biofuels: 1.4% Solar: 0.21% Wind: 0.27% Geothermal: 0.25% Urban waste: 0.32%
Coal
21.4%
Crude oil
46.4%
Primary energy supply in FY2008:
554.65 million kL
Total generation amount in FY 2008:
113,836 GWh
Amount from renewable energy in FY 2008:
2,644 GWh
Energy and power generation portfolios
Energy portfolios Power generation portfolios
Nuclear 23.8%
Coal
26.7%
Industrial waste, etc. 0.4 %
Data source:Energy Balance of OECD Countries; Renewable Energy (IEA, 2011) 11
Natural gas
16.7%
Nuclear 9.7%
Hydro 7.7 %
Crude oil
12.8% Natural gas
26.1%
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13
The Strategic Energy Plan
(100 mil. kWh)
Renewables, etc.
21%
Nuclear 53%
Natural gas
Coal
Petroleum, etc.
The Strategic Energy Plan
Trend and future plan in breakdown of generation
amount by resources
Projections:
GDP to grow 1.4 –fold
Electricity demand to
stay the same as today
(30% of electricity
demand per GDP
will be saved)
-14 new power plants
- Facility operation rate
will be increased to
some 90 %)
etc. 25%
Fossil fuels
72%
Nuclear
Fossil fuels
26%
Energy Conservation
Fossil fuels
66%
12 The first oil crisis Source: HP of the National Strategy Office of Japan, English translation by JETRO
6%
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14
The Strategic Energy Plan
(100 mil. kWh)
Renewables, etc.
21%
Nuclear 53%
Natural gas
Coal
Petroleum, etc.
The Strategic Energy Plan
Trend and future plan in breakdown of generation
amount by resources
Projections:
GDP to grow 1.4 –fold
Electricity demand to
stay the same as today
(30% of electricity
demand per GDP
will be saved)
-14 new power plants
- Facility operation rate
will be increased to
some 90 %)
etc. 25%
Fossil fuels
72%
Nuclear
Fossil fuels
26%
Energy Conservation
Fossil fuels
66%
12 The first oil crisis Source: HP of the National Strategy Office of Japan, English translation by JETRO
6%
Increase
of renewable energy
is inevitable!
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Outline of the Feed-In Tariff (FIT) Law
Renewable power producers
Home power generation
Users
Established on August 26, 2011 Enforced on July 1, 2012
Electricity fee
Surcharge
Government -decides price of electricity and surcharge.
-approves facilities of utility companies.
-collects and manages surcharge.
Source: Ministry Economy Trade and Industry of Japan. Editing and English translation by JETRO.
Purchasing cost Collect
surcharge
Supply
electricity
13
Buy electricity
at an fixed rate
Sell electricity Utility companies
Households that newly install PV system
receive subsidies from the government.
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Deregulation in the electricity business
Entry of retailers from private sectors and overseas
Trend towards separation of power generation and transmission businesses Promotion of entry of power producers and electricity sales retailers
14
Electricity company does lump sum management of power generation and transmission.
Present Electricity company will engage only in power generation.
After deregulation
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Advanced green technologies
and energy projects
15
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PV generation
Solar power plant in Ougishima launched by TEPCO** with the maximum output of 13MW ( Source : TEPCO)
NEDO*‟s field test project on new photovoltaic power generation (Photo: provided by Ohta City)
* NEDO: New Energy and Industrial Technology Development Organization
**TEPCO: Tokyo Electric Power Company
Plans to establish mega solar power plants for industrial use fully in progress
16
PV generation installed mainly for housing use
Foreign companies enter the Japanese PV market
●Canadian Solar: reportedly plans to build a factory in disaster-hit Tohoku. ●SunEdison (US):building a mega solar power plant, and Osaka prefectural government decides to give a grant.
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Utilization of ocean energy
17
Tidal power generation
(Loopwing, Co., Ltd.) High-efficiency gyro wave-activated power generation system
(Gyrodynamics Ltd.)
Reduced air pressure increases wind speed
Triples generation amount Offshore floating energy farm
(Kyusyu University)
Solar
Wave & tidal
Wind power with wind lens
Wind lens mechanism
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Quake- affected
cities
Smart city project
Source: Smart City Planning Inc.
Image of Smart City
18
″Future City″ Initiative
Electric bus
EV car sharing
Smart House
Small/Medium-scale Smart Buildings
Multi-energy station Offshore wind farm
Smart House
Solar panel
EV car sharing
Multi-energy station
Smart House
Wind farm
Mega Solar
Biomass fuels
Smart Buildings linked through Regional EMS
Regional EMS (Control center)
Environment- friendly design buildings
Battery storage systems Next-generation vehicle
center(operation center)
Intelligent Transportation System(ITS)
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Rebuilding
Green energy generation & smart city design
for rebuilding quake-affected areas
19
Smart city / smart community
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Thank you very much!
Merci beaucoup!