AGU, December 2010 1

Current EDGAR Project team: G. Janssens-Maenhout, M. Muntean, R. Petrescu, A. Meijide, V. Pagliari, D. Guizzardi, J. Olivier (PBL), J. Peters (PBL)

http://edgar.jrc.it/eolo

What EDGAR v4.2 coversResults for particulate matter

Example of coal industryExample of road transport

estimates PM10

emissions and impact of abatement measures

G.Janssens-Maenhout , V. Pagliari, J. Olivier , U. Doering, J. van Aardenne

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Time periods: • 1970 – 2008 historical annual emissions (some also monthly) • 2005 - 2050 scenarios with POLES/ IMAGE growth rates

Chemical substances: • Direct greenhouse gases: CO2 CH4 N2O HFCs PFCs SF6 • Ozone depleting substances: CFCs HCFCs• Air pollutants: CO NOx NMVOC SO2 NH3 PM10 PM2.5 BC

Spatial allocation: Activity & emission data on 0.1° x 0.1° grid cells using grid maps for urban/rural population density, animal density, power/industrial plants, coal mines, oil/gas fields, road network, shipping/aircraft routes, rice fields, crop/grass lands

EOLO datasets v4.1 since August 2010 on line: http://edgar.jrc.ec.europa.eu

What EDGAR covers, are global anthropogenic emissions

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Activity DataIEA, USGS, FAO,

UN Com. St., FRA …TECHnology& EOP data

Techn. Activity

Data

EMISSIONS

EmissionsGRIDs

0.1°x0.1°Grid maps0.1°x0.1°

Emission FactorsIPCC, Corinair, AP42, sc. mod.

EOP reductions

Red.Emission

Factors

scale EMISSIONS on grids

kton/yr

kji

kjiCjiCkjiCjiCiCC xyREDxyEFyEOPyTECHyADxyEM,,

,,,,,,,,,,, ),(1*),()(*)(*)(),(

EDGARv4 database structure

),(: xsubstanceyyearfEMissionCCountry EOPkTECHjsectorsiwith ,,

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EDGARv4 versus EMEP for Germany EDGARv4 versus GAINS for China.

Results for Air Pollutants:the example of PM10

Comparison of global PM10 with1) HTAP compilation

(EMEP+GAINS+REAS, gapfilled with EDGAR)

2) IIASA global estimate

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Sectoral details for PM emissions in EDGAR v4: Comparison with PM10 reported 2005 EMEP emissions (N02 of 2010) yields satisfying results (taking into account large uncertainty for biofuels, diffusive emission sources,…)

Discussion of Particulate Matter:evaluation by intercomparisons

… and no diffusive sources

…because EDGAR does not include

superemitters treatment

… and no diffusive sources

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Where do PM emission differences in road transport come from ?comparison of EF/EOP with T. Bond (2007, 2004):

Example of control measures in road transport

Similar EF for diesel and petrol But EDGARv4.1 opted for no “superemitters”A 10% share emitting 10x as much implies 2x total emissions

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Comparison of sectoral PM10 emissions for selected countries in

2005 between EDGARv4 and HTAP v1 (i.e. EMEP/EEA data for countries of the EMEP domain, REAS data for

Japan & India, GAINS data for China)

PM10 emissions do not include: abrasive emissions in road transport

and construction (two significant diffusive emission sources),

because many countries do not report these, and there is presently no unique

scientific methodology to estimate these emissions worldwide.

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Example of abatement in energy industry: Coal fired plants

TJ/yrTJ/yr

Germany China

Coal in electricity generation

is still major cause of world

PM10

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-20%

Example of control measures in road transport: Passenger cars

Diesel passenger cars Petrol passenger carsTJ/yr TJ/yr

To be checked

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-20%

BC from global road transport(busses, LDV, HDV, passenger

cars, two-wheelers)shows the same reduction

percentage as PM10

-35%

In EU-27 a stronger reduction is observed in the trend from

the 1990s onwards

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Example of control measures in road transport

ton PM10/cell

All Reference case

Difference: EU3 – All

Difference: EU1 – All

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Example of control measures in road transport

World-wide impact of implementing EU control measures

beyond EU1 & EU3:

scenario1: EU1 stagnation scenario 2: EU3 stagnation Reference scenario: all EU control measures

By 2000 much of the world was effectively

meeting “Euro3”

40% extra gain

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Conclusion and Outlook

Releases: Greenhouse Gases: available on edgar.jrc.ec.europa.eu under v4.0 of July 2009 and updated in v4.1 of August 2010Air Pollutants: available on edgar.jrc.ec.europa.eu under v4.1 of August 2010PM10 and update to 2008: final checks ongoing, release soonFurther upgrade EDGARv4 ongoing: PM2.5, BC/OC, completion of LULUCF, region-specific technology mixes, technology-specific gridmaps

EDGAR is a tool to analyse consistently throughout the world impacts of technologies with related emission standards

thanks you for attention/feedback