Current Distribution, Status, and Threats of Canada Lynx ... · Current Distribution, Status, and...

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John Squires, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Missoula, MT Current Distribution, Status, and Threats of Canada Lynx in Montana and Wyoming

Transcript of Current Distribution, Status, and Threats of Canada Lynx ... · Current Distribution, Status, and...

  • John Squires, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Missoula, MT

    Current Distribution, Status, and Threats of Canada Lynx in Montana and Wyoming

  • 3

    Basis of Assessment - Montana:

    a) Lynx Research Program at RMRS initiated in 1998 b) Captured and collared 175 individuals c) Recorded 169,782 GPS and 3043 VHF locations that document lynx movements and resource- use

    d) Investigated the following topics regarding lynx in Montana:

  • 4

    Basis of Assessment:

    • Resource selection Squires, J. R, N. J. DeCesare, J. A. Kolbe, and L. F. Ruggiero. 2008.

    Hierarchical den selection of Canada lynx in western Montana. Journal of Wildlife Management 72:1497-1506.

    Squires, J. R., N. J. DeCesare, J. A. Kolbe, and L. F. Ruggiero. 2010. Seasonal Resource Selection of Canada Lynx in Managed Forests of the Northern Rocky Mountains. Journal of Wildlife Management 74:1648-1660.

    • Prey Selection Squires, J. R. and L. F. Ruggiero. 2007. Winter prey selection of Canada lynx

    in northwestern Montana. Journal of Wildlife Management 71:310-315.

    • Competition Kolbe, J. A., J. R. Squires, D. H. Pletscher, and R. F. Ruggiero. 2007. The

    effect of snowmobile trails on coyote movements within lynx home ranges. Journal of Wildlife Management 71:1409-1418.

  • 5

    Basis of Assessment:

    • Activity Patterns Kolbe, J. A. and J. R. Squires. 2007. Circadian activity patterns of Canada

    lynx in western Montana. Journal of Wildlife Management 71:1607-1611.

    Olson, L. E., J. R. Squires, N. J. DeCesare, J. A. Kolbe. 2011. Den use and activity patterns in female Canada lynx (Lynx canadensis) in the Northern Rocky Mountains. Northwest Science 85(3):455-462.

    • Detection/Monitoring Squires, J. R., K. S. McKelvey, L. F. Ruggiero. 2004. A snow-tracking protocol

    used to delineate local lynx, Lynx canadensis, distributions. Canadian Field-Naturalist 118:583-589.

    McKelvey, K. S., J. Von Kienast, K. B. Aubry, G. M. Koehler, B. T. Maletzke, J. R. Squires, E. L. Lindquist, S. Loch, M. K. Schwartz. 2006. DNA analysis of hair and scat collected along snow tracks to document the presence of Canada lynx (Lynx canadensis). Wildlife Society Bulletin 34:451-455.

    Squires, J. R., L. E. Olson, D. L. Turner, N. J. DeCesare, and J. A. Kolbe. 2012. Estimating detection probability for Canada lynx using snow-track surveys in the Northern Rocky Mountains. Wildlife Biology 18:215-224.

  • 6

    Basis of Assessment:

    • Connectivity

    Squires, J. R., Nicholas J. DeCesare, Lucretia E. Olson, Jay A. Kolbe, Mark Hebblewhite, and Sean A. Parks. 2013. Combining resource selection and movement behavior to predict corridors of Canada lynx at their southern range periphery. Biological Conservation 157:187–195.

  • 7

    Basis of Assessment - Wyoming:

    a) Wyoming Game and Fish Department (WGF), in cooperation with the Shoshone National Forest (SNF), initiated lynx surveys during winter 1995/96 - no lynx detected on SNF - Impetus for WGF to fund additional surveys, trapping, and telemetry in the Wyoming Range b) During 1997-98, WGF searched approximately 2055 km of maintained snowmobile routes and 2400 km of non-maintained trails for lynx tracks in 12 areas (Laurion and Oakleaf 1998) – 6 lynx tracks detected

  • 8

    Basis of Assessment - Wyoming:

    c) During winter 1998-99, three general areas were searched (Laurion and Oakleaf 1999) - 6 tracks located in Wyoming Range.

    d) RMRS, in cooperation with WGD, conducted lynx surveys in 2000, 2001, and 2002 - 2000 – Wyoming Range: 5 lynx tracks - kitten and female - 2001 – Wyoming Range: 5 lynx tracks - 2002 – no detections

  • 9

    Basis of Assessment - Wyoming:

    e) Yellowstone Park Lynx survey from 2001 – 2004 (1,143 km ski-based snow tracks, 749 km snowmobile-based survey, 693 km aircraft survey, and 35 hair snare transects - 105-175 stations; Murphy et al. 2006. Distribution of Canada Lynx in Yellowstone National Park. Northwest

    Science 80:199-206)

    f) DNA confirmed detections of 3 lynx – 1 female, 1 female with male kitten, and 1 male. All detections on east side of Yellowstone Park – east shore Yellowstone Lake.

  • 10

    Basis of Assessment - Wyoming:

    g) Endeavor Wildlife Research Foundation conducted track/DNA surveys between 2004-2005 in southern GYA (Bridger-Teton Nat. Forest including Gros Ventre and Teton Wilderness areas) – searched 4,320 miles and detected (DNA confirmed) 18 lynx tracks. Confirmed presence in Wyoming Range.

    h) In 2008-2009, Endeavor Wildlife Research searched 2,854 miles for winter tracks throughout the GYA – documented 6 detections on Togwotee Pass, 2 possible detections in Yellowstone National Park, and 1 possible detection on the Beartooth Plateau.

  • 11

    Basis of Assessment – Wyoming (telemetry):

    e) From 2006-2007, WGF collared 2 lynx (one male, 1 female) in Wyoming Range – monitored throughout the year with conventional ground and aerial telemetry (1996 – 2001) – (N=219 locations – male, N = 212 - female)

    f) In 2000, female died. WGF asked RMRS to replace the collar on male with ARGOS (N = 258). Documented summer exploratory movements of male (1999 –2001) based on conventional and Argos telemetry (Squires and Oakleaf. 2005. Movements of a male Canada lynx crossing the Greater Yellowstone Area, including highways. Northwest Science 79:196-201).

  • 12

    Status - Montana

  • 13

    Status - Montana

    Litter size of lynx in western Montana, 1999 – 2007

    Seeley Lake

    Purcell Mountains

    Combined

    Year Litters Kittens Kittens / litter

    Litters Kittens Kittens / litter

    Litters Kittens Kittens / litter

    1999 2 4 2.00 2 4 2.00 2000 4 6 1.50 4 6 1.50 2001 3 8 2.67 3 8 2.67 2002 3 4 1.33 3 4 1.33 2003 5 14 2.80 5 14 2.80 2004 5 15 3.00 5 16 3.20 10 31 3.10 2005 5 12 2.40 6 19 3.17 11 31 2.82 2006 3 5 1.67 3 8 2.67 6 13 2.17 2007 3 7 2.33 8 22 2.75 11 29 2.64

    MLE Mean 1 33 75 2.24 22 65 2.95 55 140 2.53 MLE Var 1 0.002 0.084 0.008 95% CI 2.21-2.27 2.67-3.23 2.51-2.55

    Litter size of lynx in western Montana, 1999 – 2007

    Seeley Lake

    Purcell Mountains

    Combined

    Year

    Litters

    Kittens

    Kittens / litter

    Litters

    Kittens

    Kittens / litter

    Litters

    Kittens

    Kittens / litter

    1999

    2

    4

    2.00

     

     

    2

    4

    2.00

    2000

    4

    6

    1.50

     

     

    4

    6

    1.50

    2001

    3

    8

    2.67

     

     

    3

    8

    2.67

    2002

    3

    4

    1.33

     

     

    3

    4

    1.33

    2003

    5

    14

    2.80

     

     

    5

    14

    2.80

    2004

    5

    15

    3.00

    5

    16

    3.20

    10

    31

    3.10

    2005

    5

    12

    2.40

    6

    19

    3.17

    11

    31

    2.82

    2006

    3

    5

    1.67

    3

    8

    2.67

    6

    13

    2.17

    2007

    3

    7

    2.33

    8

    22

    2.75

    11

    29

    2.64

    MLE Mean 1

    33

    75

    2.24

    22

    65

    2.95

    55

    140

    2.53

    MLE Var 1

    0.002

    0.084

    0.008

    95% CI

    2.21-2.27

    2.67-3.23

    2.51-2.55

  • 14

    Status - Montana Proportion of successful adult Canada lynx

    Seeley Lake (N=52 breeding-age females)

    Purcell Mountains (N=28)

    Combined (N = 80)

    Year Females Females w kittens

    Prop Females Females w kittens

    Prop Females Females w kittens

    Prop

    1999 4 2 0.50 4 2 0.50 2000 6 4 0.67 6 4 0.67 2001 9 3 0.33 9 3 0.33 2002 6 2 0.33 6 2 0.33 2003 5 3 0.60 5 3 0.60 2004 6 4 0.68 5 5 1.00 11 9 0.82 2005 6 5 0.83 7 7 1.00 13 12 0.92 2006 3 3 1.00 6 4 0.67 9 7 0.78 2007 3 3 1.00 10 7 0.70 13 10 0.77

    MLE 1 Mean 0.61 0.83 0.67

    MLE Var 1 0.01 0.01 0.02

    95% CI 0.42-0.81 0.43-0.98 0.45-0.82

    Proportion of successful adult Canada lynx

    Seeley Lake

    (N=52 breeding-age females)

    Purcell Mountains

    (N=28)

    Combined

    (N = 80)

    Year

    Females

    Females w kittens

    Prop

    Females

    Females w kittens

    Prop

    Females

    Females w kittens

    Prop

    1999

    4

    2

    0.50

    4

    2

    0.50

    2000

    6

    4

    0.67

    6

    4

    0.67

    2001

    9

    3

    0.33

    9

    3

    0.33

    2002

    6

    2

    0.33

    6

    2

    0.33

    2003

    5

    3

    0.60

    5

    3

    0.60

    2004

    6

    4

    0.68

    5

    5

    1.00

    11

    9

    0.82

    2005

    6

    5

    0.83

    7

    7

    1.00

    13

    12

    0.92

    2006

    3

    3

    1.00

    6

    4

    0.67

    9

    7

    0.78

    2007

    3

    3

    1.00

    10

    7

    0.70

    13

    10

    0.77

    MLE 1

    Mean

    0.61

    0.83

    0.67

    MLE Var 1

    0.01

    0.01

    0.02

    95% CI

    0.42-0.81

    0.43-0.98

    0.45-0.82

  • 15

    We estimated survival based on 125 lynx monitored monthly from 1999-2007 using a staggered entry design; we documented 2376 lynx-use months during this period.

  • 16

    Annual Survival Rate of female lynx on the Seeley Lake(1999-2007) and Purcell (2003-2007) Study Areas including a combined estimate.

    Female

    Subadult Survival 1 Female

    Adult Survival 1

    Seeley Mean 0.515 0.747

    Variance 0.014 0.003

    95% CI 0.283 - 0.746 0.648 - 0.846

    Purcells Mean 0.683 0.846

    Variance 0.017 0.004

    95% CI 0.428 - 0.937 0.721 - 0.970

    Combined Mean 0.520 0.753

    Variance 0.010 0.002

    95% CI 0.322 - 0.718 0.659 - 0.847

    Annual Survival Rate of female lynx on the Seeley Lake(1999-2007) and Purcell (2003-2007) Study Areas including a combined estimate.

     

     

    Female

    Subadult Survival 1

    Female

    Adult Survival 1

    Seeley

    Mean

    0.515

    0.747

     

    Variance

    0.014

    0.003

     

    95% CI

    0.283 - 0.746

    0.648 - 0.846

    Purcells

    Mean

    0.683

    0.846

     

    Variance

    0.017

    0.004

     

    95% CI

    0.428 - 0.937

    0.721 - 0.970

    Combined

    Mean

    0.520

    0.753

     

    Variance

    0.010

    0.002

     

    95% CI

    0.322 - 0.718

    0.659 - 0.847

  • 17

    Status - Montana

    0200400600800

    1000120014001600

    0.70

    0.80

    0.90

    1.00

    1.10

    1.20

    1.30

    1.40

    1.50

    1.60

    Lambda

    # of

    repl

    icat

    es

    SeeleyPurcellsCombined

    Frequency distribution of λ values from 5000 replicates in which lynx vital rates were chosen from a uniform distribution bounded by their 95% confidence intervals

    Chart2

    0.70.70.7

    0.750.750.75

    0.80.80.8

    0.850.850.85

    0.90.90.9

    0.950.950.95

    111

    1.051.051.05

    1.11.11.1

    1.151.151.15

    1.21.21.2

    1.251.251.25

    1.31.31.3

    1.351.351.35

    1.41.41.4

    1.451.451.45

    1.51.51.5

    1.551.551.55

    1.61.61.6

    1.651.651.65

    Seeley

    Purcells

    Combined

    Lambda

    # of replicates

    0

    0

    0

    11

    0

    0

    213

    0

    7

    608

    0

    178

    1080

    16

    611

    1285

    86

    1079

    995

    240

    1383

    549

    456

    1002

    199

    680

    560

    52

    817

    154

    8

    798

    25

    0

    708

    1

    0

    499

    0

    0

    356

    0

    0

    204

    0

    0

    92

    0

    0

    39

    0

    0

    7

    0

    0

    2

    0

    0

    0

    0

    determ_lambdas

    Note: This worksheet shows the λ values from our determinisitc models.

    λD= the deterministic lambda from the mean matrix for each population, or the matrix in which vital rates are equal to their MLE means

    mean λD_rep= the mean lambda from the 5000 replicate matrices in which vital rates were chosen from uniform distributions bound by the 95% CL's for each vital rate

    λ from Replicates comes from the the 5000 replicate matrices; the data are stored in each study area's Deterministic folder in a file called "(studyarea)_randomlambdas"

    Study Area:SeeleyPurcellsCombinedFrequency Dist. of λ from 5000 replicatesCumulative Dist. of λ from 5000 replicates

    λD:0.9231.2230.975

    mean λD_rep:0.9251.1680.973λSeeleyPurcellsCombinedλSeeleyPurcellsCombined

    std_dev of mean:0.0750.1170.0700.700000.70000

    95% UCL:0.9271.1710.0020.7511000.750.2200

    95% LCL:0.9231.1650.0000.80213070.804.4800.14

    min_λ:0.7200.8530.7800.8560801780.8516.6403.7

    max_λ:1.1921.5941.2070.901080166110.9038.240.3215.92

    median_λ:0.9241.1630.9720.9512858610790.9563.942.0437.5

    λ values from 5000 Replicates:1.21911.01161.0099524013831.0083.846.8465.16

    11.07221.14581.08531.0554945610021.0594.8215.9685.2

    20.948141.09270.985161.101996805601.1098.829.5696.4

    30.905821.23831.01091.15528171541.1599.8445.999.48

    40.910631.24121.02461.208798251.2010061.8699.98

    50.899351.13891.05571.25070811.2510076.02100

    61.11041.16860.982771.30049901.3010086100

    70.987181.01840.910251.35035601.3510093.12100

    80.972351.12750.862671.40020401.4010097.2100

    90.88011.26290.874111.4509201.4510099.04100

    100.926211.2271.08111.5003901.5010099.82100

    110.882541.20321.03721.550701.5510099.96100

    120.927591.19741.02931.600201.60100100100

    130.887121.14370.970851.650001.65100100100

    140.942971.37970.98392

    150.849441.12110.87596

    160.909111.17831.12990.70000

    170.882181.09430.845970.751100

    180.925981.31380.970330.8022407

    191.02261.08471.01770.858320185

    201.01991.27650.987390.90191216796

    210.93561.11161.0720.9531971021875

    220.933651.27181.03061.0041923423258

    230.863850.994861.00731.0547417984260

    240.787711.06730.91121.10494014784820

    250.982741.13820.995951.15499222954974

    260.908821.33251.07291.20500030934999

    270.841681.06990.991031.25500038015000

    281.0261.09311.02331.30500043005000

    290.862261.31690.995821.35500046565000

    300.885011.02450.954191.40500048605000

    310.903151.15230.974961.45500049525000

    320.989661.1140.971521.50500049915000

    330.877481.34450.947221.55500049985000

    340.904521.13190.959681.60500050005000

    351.00691.09591.0041.65500050005000

    360.804261.04741.1463

    370.867181.30720.94618

    380.810271.14570.83689

    390.803571.02921.0378

    400.872421.30.93367

    410.963851.06130.82504

    420.830171.34610.9045

    430.971771.41190.9782

    440.877161.37641.0758

    450.965171.27131.0635

    460.883231.09860.96167

    470.913971.12141.0812

    480.904381.14930.79761

    490.839711.12080.98884

    500.831651.0540.95876

    510.844681.02381.0095

    520.934531.08590.99387

    530.952591.07440.87838

    541.00611.18910.92305

    550.950520.917140.91573

    560.831331.09790.85254

    570.795131.03811.0164

    580.894721.02260.97779

    590.938521.35230.98565

    600.981631.06160.93798

    610.925151.30940.9799

    620.935151.08860.99776

    630.860921.08671.0075

    640.930511.0740.82092

    650.922721.29070.91295

    660.884761.23450.92155

    670.939391.14190.97168

    680.920251.26250.93703

    691.00191.12290.9161

    700.841161.37020.94362

    710.956841.1511.0146

    720.811221.23840.85968

    730.921951.30611.055

    740.84551.21140.91431

    750.825811.18680.98178

    761.02931.29410.93738

    770.943741.15340.95626

    780.956411.10990.94583

    791.09661.18560.97578

    801.00681.05541.078

    810.945341.13370.83511

    820.848941.06261.117

    830.98031.19281.0667

    840.939831.21890.88514

    850.924791.13790.83901

    860.853741.02630.98255

    870.815381.26540.87745

    880.850891.43690.91552

    890.869221.14780.99491

    900.831551.20691.0772

    910.935741.27521.0268

    920.865471.25451.0193

    930.929371.08850.91067

    940.986741.17020.87507

    950.982321.14031.0074

    960.907461.21820.97069

    970.852831.11821.0307

    980.772651.41780.96541

    990.94031.19841.0281

    1000.977751.0760.99449

    1010.789141.20841.0468

    1020.977091.11270.97941

    1030.949141.11751.0431

    1041.02891.08321.0935

    1051.14471.33180.90652

    1060.965961.00281.0087

    1070.919241.2881.1146

    1081.00091.5140.97512

    1091.03391.29581.0498

    1100.974341.08930.89624

    1110.93861.00310.90952

    1120.874981.01111.0053

    1130.933921.11760.91446

    1140.905091.28370.88739

    1150.785410.985211.0133

    1160.800111.10331.0845

    1170.989711.4010.91996

    1181.0031.12330.92016

    1190.818851.11990.95115

    1200.946341.36870.91711

    1210.908131.221.0407

    1220.86831.28890.9972

    1231.05391.15030.9386

    1240.866571.3040.86497

    1250.977621.26151.0324

    1260.923761.21290.92383

    1270.790171.26181.0696

    1280.855611.19540.83798

    1291.09081.22750.96169

    1300.869581.36540.9311

    1310.911961.11980.93033

    1320.905471.25280.90556

    1330.839441.38430.9171

    1340.865011.15711.0485

    1350.884661.2610.97832

    1360.849951.30110.99421

    1371.00331.36221.0202

    1380.895251.25560.94605

    1390.969811.29030.97906

    1400.927011.18031.055

    1410.919651.11131.1016

    1421.00631.1120.97294

    1430.918211.20171.1256

    1440.963881.30441.0468

    1450.905151.30430.84398

    1460.990871.13911.015

    1470.787371.1151.0006

    1480.812541.27671.0354

    1490.967141.11021.0683

    1500.945451.38620.93908

    1510.874441.1980.98496

    1520.852341.17370.95106

    1530.920061.17390.90819

    1540.944921.20820.91947

    1550.937751.23470.94108

    1560.887751.09871.0448

    1570.831691.26181.0755

    1580.954820.932490.92493

    1590.918121.17360.86793

    1600.993571.05370.93094

    1610.858151.110.96746

    1620.975361.33541.0113

    1630.962151.33750.9161

    1640.99061.31891.0566

    1651.01051.40321.0287

    1661.00891.10991.0511

    1670.882011.08710.90267

    1680.921431.13870.89239

    1690.924421.19170.92883

    1700.801710.980360.983

    1710.937291.25850.86821

    1720.973951.29940.93049

    1730.992181.33351.0063

    1740.865351.36480.93471

    1750.884521.12410.99329

    1760.856381.10840.94299

    1770.92190.959260.98652

    1780.896581.29890.92373

    1790.9831.41171.1038

    1800.958231.22060.98936

    1810.961981.14421.0913

    1821.00871.07780.81181

    1831.02271.11440.87117

    1840.819941.04581.0254

    1850.998431.23530.97976

    1860.933881.03341.1629

    1871.07981.14790.96356

    1880.775831.32380.94831

    1890.911051.24351.0218

    1900.947581.15561.0281

    1910.811821.15620.94609

    1920.957791.33061.0961

    1930.796321.22981.1324

    1940.868081.24770.8981

    1951.0131.21750.84481

    1960.903651.10621.0038

    1970.974691.09591.0128

    1980.792781.2160.99659

    1990.887191.14380.97214

    2000.779111.09981.0515

    2011.00441.26840.89833

    2020.846531.1380.94539

    2031.03321.26031.1056

    2040.821441.2331.0299

    2050.941221.11051.0716

    2060.878061.27220.88033

    2070.891291.19740.97583

    2080.804511.22780.98685

    2090.94941.07930.91425

    2100.956571.09790.97221

    2110.988771.07251.0172

    2120.971691.1271.0137

    2130.83271.17250.96876

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