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CURRENT ANIMAL HEALTH SITUATION WORLDWIDE: ANALYSIS … · CURRENT ANIMAL HEALTH SITUATION...
Transcript of CURRENT ANIMAL HEALTH SITUATION WORLDWIDE: ANALYSIS … · CURRENT ANIMAL HEALTH SITUATION...
CURRENT ANIMAL HEALTH SITUATION WORLDWIDE:
ANALYSIS OF EVENTS AND TRENDS
Dr Paula Cáceres Soto
1
Head, World Animal Health Information and Analysis Department
Contents
1. Global situation regarding five terrestrial OIE-listed diseases and infections of major interest
o Infection with influenza A viruses of high pathogenicity in birds
o Infection with rabies virus
o Infection with peste des petits ruminants virus
o Infection with foot and mouth disease virus
o Lumpy skin disease
2. Global situation regarding diseases of aquatic animals: worldwide diagnostic capabilities
o Submission of six-monthly reports
o Information provided within reports
o National Reference laboratory capacities
3. Update on the WAHIS renovation project (WAHIS+)
Global situation regarding five terrestrial OIE-listed diseases and
infections of major interest
Chapter I
3
World Organisation for Animal Health · Protecting animals, Preserving our future | 4
Member Countries having submitted their six
monthly report on terrestrial animal diseases
As of 10 May 2017:
- 93% (167/180) the 1st semester of 2016
- 75% (135/180) for the 2nd semester of 2016
High rates!
World Organisation for Animal Health · Protecting animals, Preserving our future | 5
Chapter I.1.
Infection with influenza A
viruses of high
pathogenicity in birds
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Reported distribution of HPAI in 2016 and
early 2017 in poultry (data based on reports received up to 10 May 2017)
*Data provided by Morocco
*
29% Member Countries and territories
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Reported distribution of HPAI in 2016 and
early 2017 in wild birds (data based on reports received up to 10 May 2017)
*Data provided by Morocco
*
26% Member Countries and territories
World Organisation for Animal Health · Protecting animals, Preserving our future | 8
Percentage of the reporting countries that
notified HPAI present (between 2006 and 2016)
(data based on reports received up to 10 May 2017)
y = 0.0017x2 - 0.0392x + 0.2849 R² = 0.7
0%
5%
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15%
20%
25%
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50%
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2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
% affected countries
Number of countries
Countries reporting the disease present
Countries reporting the disease absent
% Affected reporting countries with 95% C. I.
31% 28%
1 serotype 11
serotypes
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Analysis of WAHIS data (1)
Dynamic of H5N8 subtype in the last
four years: time evolution?
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Methodology (1)
Period 1 Sept. 2013 –
Aug. 2014
Period 2 Sept. 2014 –
Aug. 2015
Period 3 Sept. 2015 –
Aug. 2016
Period 4 Sept. 2016 –
May 2017
Epidemic curve
Cases Outbreaks
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Period 4 Sept. 2016 – May 2017
2362 OUTBREAKS
Period 2: Sept 2014– Aug 2015
422 OUTBREAKS
Results (2): epidemic curves
Period 2: Sept 2014– Aug 2015
327 770 CASES
Period 4 Sept. 2016 – May 2017
1 103 314 CASES
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Analysis of WAHIS data (2)
Dynamic of H5N8 subtype in the last
four years: spatial spread?
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Methodology (2)
Period 1 Sept. 2013 –
Aug. 2014
Period 2 Sept. 2014 –
Aug. 2015
Period 3 Sept. 2015 –
Aug. 2016
Period 4 Sept. 2016 –
May 2017
Kernel
density
estimator
2,784
outbreaks
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Results (2): Kernel estimation of H5N8
spread in period 2 and period 4 (data based on reports received up to 10 May 2017)
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Conclusion Maximum number of countries reporting the disease present since 2006
New subtypes : H5N8 (higher spread capacity), H5N5 and H7N9 (more
aggressive variant)
More link with genetic data to better understand current and potential
evolution of the disease, WAHIS+
H5N8 dynamic as a model of the potential evolution in the epidemiology of a
changing subtype
The OIE encourages its Member Countries to improve surveillance in
wildlife and provide timely and accurate information.
The collection of high quality information allows for more advanced
epidemiological analysis, and consequently the adoption of proper
biosecurity measures:
i) to avoid the spread of the disease
ii) to limit contact between poultry and wild birds.
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Chapter I.2.
Infection with rabies virus
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Reported distribution of infection with
rabies virus in 2016 and early 2017 (data based on reports received up to 10 May 2017)
Copyright © 2017, World Animal Health Information and Analysis Department – OIE
57% countries/territories
*Data provided by Morocco
*
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Percentage of the reporting countries that
notified rabies present in dogs (between 2005 and 2016)
(data based on reports received up to 10 May 2017)
y = -0.0031x + 0.5055 R² = 0.7
0
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2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
No. countries % countries
Rabies present in dogs
Rabies absent in dogs
% Affected reporting countries with 95% C.I.
Improvement!
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Analysis of WAHIS data
What are the regional differences in
terms of rabies occurrence, impact and
control?
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Methodology
By Region
Annual reports
Humans
Six-monthly reports
Dogs
Relative risk (cases notified in humans if cases notified in
dogs)
2015/2016 2005-2016
% reporting countries reporting
vaccination of dogs per year
Trend (Spearman’s rank correlation test)
% reporting countries notifying
rabies in
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Results: Regional differences in the %
countries notifying rabies in dogs
86%
29%
56%
11%
42%
0%
89%
36%
69%
36% 42%
0% 0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Africa Americas Asia Europe MiddleEast
Oceania
% countries
% countries notifying rabies in humans (2015/2016)
% countries notifying rabies in dogs (2015/2016)
RR = 3.7
Differences in terms of rabies
occurrence & impact
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Lower % of countries
reporting dog-mediated
rabies
Results: Median & trend of official
vaccination of dogs (2005-2016)
69% 70%
57%
49%
70%
0% 0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Africa Asia Middle East Americas Europe Oceania
Median % of countries reporting official dog
vaccination
High % of countries reporting dog-
mediated rabies
No reported dog-
mediated rabies
Differences in terms of
control strategies
Increasing
trend
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Conclusion
Improvement of the global situation since 2005 but strong
regional differences
OIE programmes & initiatives to support national dog-
mediated rabies elimination programmes
Recommendations highlighted at the Conference on Global
Elimination of Dog-mediated Human Rabies & in
Resolution No. 26 (84th OIE General Session) to achieve 0
human deaths from dog-mediated rabies by 2030
WAHIS useful to measure progress
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Chapter I.3.
Infection with peste des
petits ruminants virus
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Reported distribution of PPR in 2016 and
early 2017 (data based on reports received up to 10 May 2017)
*Data provided by Morocco
*
Copyright © 2017, World Animal Health Information and Analysis Department – OIE
29% countries/territories
First occurrence
in Georgia
January 2016
First occurrence
in Mongolia
August 2016
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PPR in Mongolia
© Albert Salemgareyev/ABCK
(December 2016)
More than 3000 deaths in Mongolian Saigas (critically
endangered)
Reinforces the need to investigate the role of wildlife in
PPR epidemiology
OIE/FAO Crisis
Management Centre –
Animal Health assists
the Government of
Mongolia in dealing with
the PPR outbreaks
©Buuveibaatar Bayabaatar/WCS
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OIE Member Countries’ official status 2016
for PPR (last update May 2016)
54
Member
Countries
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Percentage of the reporting countries that
notified PPR present (between 2005 and 2016)
(data based on reports received up to 10 May 2017)
y = -0.0004x2 + 0.013x + 0.1516 R² = 0.8
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2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
No. countries % countries
PPR absent PPR present % Affected reporting countries with 95% C.I.Deterioration
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Analysis of WAHIS data
Role of regulated vs. unregulated
international trade of small ruminants in
PPR spread over the past 11 years?
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Methodology (1)
UN repository of official
international trade statistics
Yearly monetary value
2005-2015
Regulated trade network of live small
ruminants (social network analysis techniques)
Yearly network density
Trends (Spearman’s rank correlation test)
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0
0,01
0,02
0,03
0
1
2
3
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Density USD
Monetary value global trade (billion USD) Network density
Results (1): Trend of regulated international
trade in small ruminants from 2005 to 2015
(data based on UN Comtrade data)
Increase of regulated
international trade
Spearman’s rank correlation test
rho= 0.8; p < 0.005 for monetary value
rho= 0.8, p = 0.001 for network density
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Methodology (2)
PPR events reported to the
OIE as first occurrences in
countries since 2005
Genetic links with previously
existing viruses (bibliographical research)
Comparison
Regulated trade routes
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©Farmonline
Results (2): Compiled trade movements
between PPR-affected countries since 2007
and potential PPR spread routes
For 9 events/10: PPR spread
could not be explained by
regulated trade
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Conclusion
Deterioration of the global PPR situation in the past 12 years
Event in Mongolia raises the question of the role of wildlife
Recommendations in the Global Strategy to achieve PPR
eradication by 2030
Implementation of the OIE standards (recognised by the WTO)
effective but PPR spread through unregulated international
animal movements needs to be better controlled
High value of genetic information in helping to understand
disease spread (next version of WAHIS)
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Chapter I.4.
Infection with foot and
mouth disease virus
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Reported distribution of FMD in 2016 and
early 2017, serotype A (data based on reports received up to 10 May 2017)
23 countries
*Data provided by Morocco
*
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Reported distribution of FMD in 2016 and
early 2017, serotype O (data based on reports received up to 10 May 2017)
37 countries and territories
*Data provided by Morocco
*
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Reported distribution of FMD in 2016 and
early 2017, serotype Asia 1 (data based on reports received up to 10 May 2017)
4 countries
*Data provided by Morocco
*
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Reported distribution of FMD in 2016 and
early 2017, serotype SAT 1 (data based on reports received up to 10 May 2017)
9 countries
*Data provided by Morocco
*
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Reported distribution of FMD in 2016 and
early 2017, serotype SAT 2 (data based on reports received up to 10 May 2017)
11 countries
*Data provided by Morocco
*
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*
Reported distribution of FMD in 2016 and
early 2017, serotype SAT 3 (data based on reports received up to 10 May 2017)
2 countries
*Data provided by Morocco
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Reported distribution of FMD in 2016 and
early 2017, serotype not specified (data based on reports received up to 10 May 2017)
18 countries
*Data provided by Morocco
*
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OIE Member Countries’ official FMD status (last update January 2017)
82 MC are officially
recognized as free or
having an FMD free zone
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Percentage of the reporting countries that
notified FMD present (between 2005 and 2016)
(data based on reports received up to 10 May 2017) y = 2E-05x3 – 0.0011x2 + 0.0146x + 0.2586
R² = 0.3759
0%
5%
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50%
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2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
% affected countries
Number of countries
Countries reporting the disease present
Countries reporting the disease absent
% affected reporting countries with 95% C.I.
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Analysis of WAHIS data
Exploring the regional differences for
the occurrence of FMD
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Methodology (1)
Regional analysis of data (2005 – 2016)
Defining regional prevalence in 12 years (countries reporting disease presence/total countries reporting)
0%
Oceania
1%
Europe
5% The
Americas 57%
Africa
58%
Asia
65%
Middle
East
Analysis focus in
4 regions
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Results (1): Percentage of the reporting
countries that notified FMD present by region (between 2005 and 2016)
(data based on reports received up to 10 May 2017)
0%
10%
20%
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90%
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2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
% of countries with
FMD present
Middle East Africa Asia America
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Results (2): Sub-
regional differences in
Africa
0%
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2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
% of reporting FMD
present in Africa
North South East West Central
79%
27%
37%
64%
76%
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Analysis of WAHIS data
Methodology (2)
Exploring the evolution
of serotype C reporting in the last 37 years &
the capacity to provide information by serotype
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Methodology (2) Exploring the global trend of reporting serotypes
Focus on Serotype C occurrence Providing information
on serotype
WAH e-format
1981 – 1995
Data from three periods
Handistatus
1996 – 2004
WAHIS
2005 – 2016
WAHIS
2005 – 2016
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020406080100120140160180200
0
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No. reporting
countries % of reporting
countries
No. Reporting countries % of reporting countries
Results (3): Percentage of reporting countries
that notified FMD serotype C (between 1981 and 2016)
(data based on reports received up to 10 May 2017)
7 countries
3 2 1
y = 0.0002x2 – 0.0192x + 0.5826
R² = 0.900
0%
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2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
% of not typed No of countries
Present not typed Present with serotype % of not typed
Poly. (% of not typed) Poly. (% of not typed)
Results (4): The capacity to provide
information by serotype (between 2005 and 2016)
(data based on reports received up to 10 May 2017)
Observed improvement in
serotyping Average
of 56%
Average
of 29%
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Conclusion
Observed significant improvements in the epidemiological
situation in the Americas and subregional differences in
Africa
Significant decrease of serotype C reporting
Number of countries not reporting serotype is decreasing in
the last 12 years, but there is still room for improvement
Coordinate effort to ensure adequate sampling of FMD
serotypes to improve confidence of absence of serotype C
“WAHIS +” will include genetic typing to investigate evolution
and spatial pathways of FMD
World Organisation for Animal Health · Protecting animals, Preserving our future | 54
Chapter I.5.
Lumpy skin disease
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Reported distribution of LSD in 2016 and
early 2017 (data based on reports received up to 10 May 2017)
27% Member Countries
*Data provided by Morocco
*
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Percentage of the reporting countries that
notified LSD present (between 2005 and 2016)
(data based on reports received up to 10 May 2017)
y = 5E-05x3 - 0.0016x2 + 0.0151x + 0.1291
R² = 0.8229
0%
5%
10%
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2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
% affected countries
Number of countries
Countries reporting the disease presentCountries reporting the disease absent% affected reporting countries with 95% C.I.
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Analysis of WAHIS data (1)
LSD significantly spread to new areas
since 2006?
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Methodology (1)
Plotting latitude vs
years
Latitude extraction
Outbreaks location
(N=1838)
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Results (1): Trend in the average latitude of
LSD outbreaks between 2005 and 2016
(data based on reports received up to 10 May 2017)
Significant increase of average latitude (p-value < 0.001; rho=0.8)
29,68°N
42,13°N
> 3 000 km
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Analysis of WAHIS data (2)
Do environmental, climatic and animal
population variables affect disease
distribution?
Can they help in predicting disease
occurrence?
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Methodology (2)
24 Climatic
variables 4 Density and livestock
production system variables 13 Land cover and
NDVI variables
General Linear model
Generalized Variance Inflation
Factor Stepwise selection
16 variables
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Results (2): Environmental variables
selected in the final model
(data based on reports received up to 10 May 2017)
May November
16 variables
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Results (2):
Distribution of
LSD predicted
risk areas
(data based on reports
received up to 10 May 2017)
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Conclusion
LSD is an emerging threat to free countries
Role of environmental and climatic factors
Modelling disease spread to improves control
and prevention
Importance of linking the data provided through
WAHIS with international databases to improve
epidemiological analysis: role of WAHIS+
Global situation regarding diseases of aquatic animals: worldwide
diagnostic capabilities
65
Chapter II
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Chapter II.1.
Submission of six-
monthly reports
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Member Countries having submitted their
six monthly report on aquatic animal
diseases
As of 10 May 2017:
- 67% (121/180) the 1st semester of 2016
- 57% (102/180) for the 2nd semester of 2016
Comparable to previous years &
Much lower than for terrestrial animals
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Analysis of WAHIS data
Identifying factors influencing the
notification of aquatic animal diseases?
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Methodology
Submission of six-monthly reports by Member Countries
(binary variable)
By 2015 aquaculture production (FAO Global Aquaculture Production)
As of 10 May 2017
Comparison of percentages
by OIE Region
(Median comparison using Wilcoxon rank sum)
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Results: Submission of reports for 2016, by
OIE Region
(data based on reports received up to 10 May 2017)
OIE Region % of Members in the Region
that submitted information
Africa 44%
Americas 80%
Asia, Far East and
Oceania 61%
Europe 92%
Middle East 60%
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Results: National 2015 aquaculture production
and submission of reports for 2016
(data based on reports received up to 10 May 2017)
Annual aquaculture production (tonnes)
Reports submitted No Yes
0
50 000
100 000
150 000
200 000
Countries that are
not submitting
reports have a
significantly lower
aquaculture
production than
those submitting
information (Wilcoxon rank sum test)
Median =
991 tonnes
Median =
12 020 tonnes
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Chapter II.2.
Information provided
within reports
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Reported distribution of OIE-listed
diseases in 2016 and early 2017 - Fish
(data based on reports received up to 10 May 2017)
*Data provided by Morocco
*
Copyright © 2017, World Animal Health Information and Analysis Department – OIE
Koi herpesvirus
disease
First occurrence in
Croatia
June 2016
Infect.
haematopoietic
necrosis
First occurrence
in Kenya
February 2016
Epizootic ulcerative
syndrome
First occurrence in
Zimbabwe
August 2016
World Organisation for Animal Health · Protecting animals, Preserving our future | 74
Reported distribution of OIE-listed
diseases in 2016 and early 2017 - Molluscs
(data based on reports received up to 10 May 2017)
*Data provided by Morocco
*
Copyright © 2017, World Animal Health Information and Analysis Department – OIE
Infection with
Bonamia exitiosa
First occurrence
in Croatia
May 2016
World Organisation for Animal Health · Protecting animals, Preserving our future | 75
Reported distribution of OIE-listed diseases
in 2016 and early 2017 - Crustaceans
(data based on reports received up to 10 May 2017)
*
*Data provided by Morocco
Copyright © 2017, World Animal Health Information and Analysis Department – OIE
Hepatopancreatitis
in prawns
Emerging disease
in Australia
Notified February
2016
World Organisation for Animal Health · Protecting animals, Preserving our future | 76
Reported distribution of OIE-listed diseases
in 2016 and early 2017 - Amphibians
(data based on reports received up to 10 May 2017)
*Data provided by Morocco
*
Copyright © 2017, World Animal Health Information and Analysis Department – OIE
World Organisation for Animal Health · Protecting animals, Preserving our future | 77
Analysis of WAHIS data
Distribution of countries reporting
diseases present?
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Results: Presence of aquatic animal diseases
in OIE-validated six monthly reports for 2016
(data based on reports received up to 10 May 2017)
OIE Region % of Member Countries that reported the
presence of at least one disease
Africa 42%
Americas 67%
Asia, the Far East and
Oceania 59%
Europe 54%
Middle East 8%
World Organisation for Animal Health · Protecting animals, Preserving our future | 79
Chapter II.3.
National Reference
Laboratories capacities
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Analysis of WAHIS data
Use of national laboratories and OIE Reference
Laboratories for diagnosis of OIE-listed aquatic
animal diseases?
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Methodology
Member Countries’ latest
annual reports
% of countries reporting
availability of diagnostic tests
in their national laboratories
As of 10 May 2017
by OIE Region
Potential gaps?
Exceptional epidemiological
events reported since 2005
Use made of OIE Reference
Laboratories vs. other kind
or laboratories?
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Results: Percentage of Member Countries that
reported on the availability of diagnostic tests
for OIE-listed aquatic animal diseases
(data based on reports received up to 10 May 2017)
9%
62%
42%
61%
16%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Africa Americas Asia, Far Eastand Oceania
Europe Middle East
Gaps in national diagnostic
capabilities for aquatic animal
diseases
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Results: Use of laboratories for confirmation
of exceptional epidemiological events of OIE-
listed aquatic animal diseases
National Reference
laboratory only 77%
OIE Reference Laboratory
only 12%
National Reference
laboratory and OIE Reference
Laboratory 4%
Other 7%
Importance of capacity
building within countries
and of the network of OIE
Reference Laboratories
142 events from 1 January 2005 to 10 May 2017
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Conclusion
Despite the importance of aquatic animal diseases, the level
of global reporting is much lower than for terrestrial animal
diseases
Partially explained by the lack of diagnostic capabilities in
certain Regions and by aquatic animal production data.
Provision of support by OIE Reference Laboratories in
case of specific need & Twinning programmes
OIE encouraging the nomination of National Focal Points
for Aquatic Animals, giving them access to WAHIS &
providing regular training
85
Update on the WAHIS renovation project
Chapter III
Dr Neo Mapitse Deputy Head,
World Animal Health Information and Analysis Department
World Organisation for Animal Health · Protecting animals, Preserving our future | 86
Intuitive New
features Dynamic
Mapping
system
Regional/
National
databases
Data
mining
PVS
Official
disease
status
Genomic AMR
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Project Implementation: status and main
accomplishments
Upcoming activities
Functional requirements phase (Nov 2016 – Aug 2017)
Users needs assessment
Functional specifications
Technical project manager recruitment
Initiation phase (Jan – Nov 2016)
WAHIS+ Think Tank
WAHIS+ business plan
Survey WAHIS Evaluation
Consultancy firm
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Upcoming activities
IT company
• Request for Information (RFI)
• International call for Tender
Development
• Module by module
• Functionalities
3 stages
• Foundation stage (18 months)
• Evolutive stage (10 months)
• Advanced stage (6+ months)
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• Immediate notification and FUR • Six-monthly reports • Annual report/data • Annual report wild • WAHIS+ wild interface • WAHIS+ interface • WAHIS+ alert application • Improved mapping feature • WAHIS data migration • Interoperability
• WAHIS+ interface • Genomic data • E-learning platform • Interoperability
• Data migration • Data mining • Dashboards production
WAHIS+ roll-out strategy
FOUNDATION STAGE (18 MONTHS)
NEW ADDITIONAL FEATURES (10 MONTHS)
DATA MIGRATION (6+ MONTHS)
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Broad participation in the identification of users needs
206 Delegates and Focal points from 167 countries in 2016.
739 stakeholders from 143 countries in 2017.
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Consultation with stakeholders
Public organisations (e.g. National
Veterinary Services, Ministry of Health,
Ministry of Agriculture)
53%
International organisations
4%
Regional organisations 4%
Academic/ research institutions
18%
NGO (non-governmental organisations)
3%
Private sector (e.g. clinic, pharmaceutical
industry) 13%
Press (e.g. newspapers, TV)
0.5 % Trade services
0.4%
Others 4.4%
World Organisation for Animal Health · Protecting animals, Preserving our future | 92
Technical Advisory Committee
Strategic Advisory Committee
Steering
Committee
(monthly)
Operational Committee
(weekly)
12, rue de Prony, 75017 Paris, France
www.oie.int
[email protected] - [email protected]
Thank you for your attention