Currency Weeakly Basics Tutorial

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  • 14 JULY 18 JULY 2014 W E E K L Y R E P O R T Buy on fear, sell on greed. Buy on the rumor, sell on the news. The trend is your friend. Amateurs want to be right. Professionals want to make money. WWW.TRIFIDRESEARCH.COM
  • REFERENCE RATE (USD) 60.1855 REPO RATE 8% REVERSE REPO 7% CRR 4% INFLATION 6.01% KEY RATESAs on 11/07/2014 MARKET EVENTS MARKET OUTLOOK Markets eyed on Union Budget to be presented last week but reeled disappointment due lack of specifics in it by Govt. as they left open questions on how it will reduce the fiscal deficit and restore investor confidence and hence rupee depreciated on the same day. However, it gained on Friday on dollar sales by a large corporate but that was not enough to prevent the weekly fall of rupee by 0.3% snapping two weeks of gains. Coming week is looking out for CPI and WPI data to be released on Monday which may be key factors for its direction further. Rupee posts 1st weekly fall in 3; gains on day on corp dollar sales. Euro dips in Asia on Portuguese bank woes. Yuan set to fall slightly this week underperforms midpoint. Pound Rally Wanes Amid Signs of Slowing U.K. Growth CURRENCIES PREVIOUS RATE CURRENT RATE % CHANGE USDINR 60.0350 60.1850 0.24 EURINR 81.5550 81.8875 0.40 GBPINR 102.8225 103.0425 0.21 JPYINR 58.8400 59.4000 0.95
  • USDINR EURINR USDINR last week consolidated mainly in a tight range and finally closed on a flat note. It found support around 59.9000 and strong rebounding was seen towards 60.4000. Consolidation is continuing since last four weeks and it needs a closing above 60.6000 to gain strength and move on higher side while 59.7000 may act as key support for the coming week. EURINR last week consolidated near the lower band of upward channel pattern and closed on a flat note with positive bias. If the positive biasness continues then it may move towards the upper band i.e. in the resistance range of 82.6000-82.9000. While on lower side, breakout of channel pattern may happen if it decisively surpasses the level of 81.4000.
  • CURRENCIES S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3 USDINR 59.7000 59.3000 59.0000 60.7000 61.0000 61.4000 EURINR 81.4000 80.9000 80.4000 82.3000 82.7000 83.2000 GBPINR 102.4000 102.0000 101.6000 103.6000 104.0000 104.4000 JPYINR 58.9000 58.6000 58.3000 59.8000 60.2000 60.6000 PIVOT TABLE DATE TIME COUNTRY EVENT BLOOMBERG ESTIMATE PREVIOUS LEVEL 14-JULY-2014 5:30 PM INDIA Indian CPI (YOY) 7.95% 8.28% 15-JULY-2014 06:00 PM US Core Retail Sales m/m 0.5% 0.1% 15-JULY-2014 6:00 PM US Retail Sales m/m 0.6% 0.3% 17-JULY-2014 6:00 PM US Unemployment Claims 310k 304k INTERNATIONAL UPDATES Canadian Dollar Drops amid Unexpected Decline in Jobs. Brazils Real Posts Weekly Decline on Renewed Portugal Stress. Yen Rises Versus Most Majors on European Bank Stress.