WISE M NEY

SHUBH NAVRATRAS25TH SEPTEMBER - 3RD OCTOBER 2014

Bra

nd

sm

c 2

65

2014: Issue 442, Week: 29th September - 02nd OctoberA Weekly Update from SMC

(For private circulation only)

Contents

Equity 4-7

Derivatives 8-9

Commodity 10-13

Currency 14

IPO 15

Fixed Deposit 16

Mutual Fund 17-18

EDITORIAL STAFF

Editor Saurabh Jain

Executive Editor Jagannadham Thunuguntla

+Editorial Team

Dr. R.P. Singh Nitin Murarka

Vandana Bharti Sandeep Joon

Dinesh Joshi Vineet Sood

Shitij Gandhi Dhirender Singh Bisht

Subhranil Dey Parminder Chauhan

Ajay Lakra Mudit Goyal

Content Editor Kamla Devi

Graphic Designer Pramod Chhimwal

Research Executive Sonia Bamba

REGISTERED OFFICES:

11 / 6B, Shanti Chamber, Pusa Road, New Delhi 110005.

Tel: 91-11-30111000, Fax: 91-11-25754365

MUMBAI OFFICE:

Dheeraj Sagar, 1st Floor, Opp. Goregaon sports Club, Link Road

Malad (West), Mumbai 400064

Tel: 91-22-67341600, Fax: 91-22-28805606

KOLKATA OFFICE:

18,Rabindra Sarani, Poddar Court, Gate No-4,

5th Floor, Kolkata-700001

Tel : 91-33-39847000 Fax No : 91-33-39847004

AHMEDABAD OFFICE :

10/A, 4th Floor, Kalapurnam Building, Near Municipal Market,

C G Road, Ahmedabad-380009, Gujarat

Tel : 91-79-26424801 - 05, 40049801 - 03

CHENNAI OFFICE:

Salzburg Square, Flat No.1, III rd Floor, Door No.107, Harrington Road,

Chetpet, Chennai - 600031.

Tel: 044-39109100, Fax -044- 39109111

SECUNDERABAD OFFICE:

206, 3rd Floor, above CMR Exclusive, Bhuvana Towers, S.D.Road,

Secunderabad - 500003

Tel: 91-40-30780298/99, 39109536

DUBAI OFFICE:

312, Belshalat Building, Al Karama, Dubai, P.O. Box 117210, U.A.E.

Tel: 97143963120, Mobile : 971502612483

Fax : 9714 3963122

Email ID : pankaj@smccomex.com

smcdmcc@gmail.com

Printed and Published on behalf of

Mr. Saurabh Jain @ Publication Address

11/6B, Shanti Chamber, Pusa Road, New Delhi-110005

Website: www.smcindiaonline.com

Investor Grievance : smc@smcindiaonline.com

Printed at: S&S MARKETING

102, Mahavirji Complex LSC-3, Rishabh Vihar, New Delhi - 110092 (India)

Ph.: +91-11- 43035012, 43035014, Email: ss@sandsmarketing.in

lobal stock markets are seen tiring after posting decent gains during the

year. Investors are also seen skeptical while investing and are trying to Ggauge the stock market rally with the actual economic health of the world

economy. As regards to stock market performance so far so good is largely the

outcome of abundant liquidity. Falling crude prices and metal prices owing to

lower demand and rise in supplies reflects some kind of anomaly between what

the stock markets are stating and the actual economic situation of the global

economies. End of bond purchase program by U.S. Fed going in end of the

October this year and interest rate hike in the next calendar year is another

concern moving around. Agencies like Goldman Sachs reduced the Chinese

economy growth projections for 2015 to 7.1% from 7.6% and recently Chinese

finance minister made a statement that no major policy adjustments would be

done dampening hopes for some kind of stimulus to sour sagging growth in the

economy. In Europe growth is weakening as core economies like Germany is

manufacturing activity growth declining to 15 months low together with decline

in confidence sanctions on trade by Russia.

Back at home, Supreme Court has cancelled all 214 coal blocks out of 218

awarded since 1993 except four that were allocated to ultra mega power project

and central government companies in line with the various options given by the

central government in its affidavit to the court. To get uninterrupted coal

supplies, court allowed miners six months time to continue with the mining and

from there onwards Coal India will take over mining operations till government

comes out with a fresh policy. The outcome came as a negative surprise in the

markets as fate of investments done so far in the coal blocks lacks clarity.

Moreover there is also a sense of uncertainty of the recovery of loans given by the

banks for the operations. Geopolitical tensions as regards to U.S. air strikes in

Syria and Chinese army activity on the borders are some of the other noted

concerns. In the fourth bi-monthly monetary policy scheduled on Tuesday,

September 30, 2014, RBI is widely expected to keep status-quo on the interest

rates and investors would try to assess what the Governor Raghuram Rajan feel

about the health of domestic and global economy.

On the commodities front, global tensions and a strong U.S. dollar drove big

moves in commodities last week. Escalating geopolitical tensions added premium

in gold and crude prices. Silver traded silently. Gold may move in the range of

26200-27700 in MCX and White metal silver can hover in the range of 38000-42000

this week. In India, jewelers and bullion dealers are expecting demand to pick up

in the run up to the festivals of Dusshera and Diwali. Crude oil may continue its

last week recovery as geopolitical tensions may give prices underlying support. It

is a time of ambiguity in commodities market. In such conditions some important

events and data scheduled this week can help investors while trading into

commodities. Some of events to be closely watched are German CPI, German

Unemployment Change, and unemployment rate, Euro-Zone Consumer Price

Index Estimate and GDP of Canada, CPI, ISM Manufacturing, Change in Non-farm

Payrolls, unemployment Rate and ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite of US,

Manufacturing PMI of China etc.

From The Desk Of Editor

(Saurabh Jain)

CURRENCY

Currency Table

Currency Pair Open High Low Close

USD/INR 60.98 61.42 60.82 61.35

EUR/INR 78.50 78.78 77.64 78.03

GBP/INR 99.45 100.22 99.27 100.00

JPY/INR 56.00 56.40 55.79 56.19

(Source: FX Central, Open: Monday 9.00 AM IST, Close: Thursday (5.00 PM IST)

News Flows of last week

24th Sep Sales of new U.S. single-family homes surged in August to their highest level in more than six years,

25th Sep Rupee hits 1-1/2 month low on broad dollar gains

25th Sep The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits rose less than expected last week

25th Sep Orders for long-lasting U.S. manufactured goods in August posted their biggest drop on record

25th Sep Lending to euro zone households and companies contracted for the 28th month in a row in August

25th Sep New orders for capital goods by U.S. businesses rebounded in August,

EUR/INR (OCT) contract closed at 78.40 on 25th September'14. The contract made its high of `79.22 on 23rd September'14 and a low of `78.00 on 23rd September'14 (Weekly Basis). The 14-day Exponential Moving Average of the EUR/INR is currently at ̀ 79.15.

On the daily chart, EUR/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 41.36. One can sell below 78.20 for a target of 77.00 with the stop loss of 78.75

`

JPY/INR (OCT) contract closed at 56.55 on 25th September'14. The contract made its high of 56.74 on 23rd September'14 and a low of `55.58 on 23rd September'14 (Weekly Basis). The 14-day Exponential Moving Average of the JPY/INR is currently at ̀ 56.98.

On the daily chart, JPY/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 40.36. One can sell around 57.25 for a target of 56.00 with the stop loss of 57.80

Market Stance

The Indian Rupee traded to a seven week low and depreciated sharply in the

week gone by. The currency depreciated after Supreme Court, scrapped all

but four of 218 coal blocks allocated by the government in past two decades

which raised the concerns of increasing imports thereby widening the trade

and current account deficit of the country. Further, decline in domestic

market sentiments along with dollar demand from importers exerted

downside pressure on the currency. The rupee also get hammered as upbeat

US home sales data fuelled further expectations for an early rate hike by the

Federal Reserve. In overseas market, euro fell to an almost two year low

against a dollar that is on track for its longest winning streak since 1970's as

investors anticipate that European and U.S monetary policy will head in

opposite direction.

EUR/INR

USD/INR (OCT) contract closed at `61.75 on 25th September'14. The contract made its high of `61.81 on 25th September'14 and a low of `61.22 on 22nd September'14 (Weekly Basis). The 14-day Exponential Moving Average of the USD/INR is currently at ̀ 61.48.

On the daily chart, the USD/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 63.12. One can sell belowe 61.05 for a target of 60.00 with the stop loss of 61.65.

GBP/INR (OCT) contract closed at 100.57 on 25th September'14. The contract made its high of 100.77 on 24th September'14 and a low of `99.82 on 23rd September'14 (Weekly Basis). The 14-day Exponential Moving Average of the GBP/INR is currently at ̀ 100.28.

On the daily chart, GBP/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 54.37. One can sell below 99.90 for a target of 98.50 with the stop loss of 100.60.

`

USD/INRTechnical Recommendation

GBP/INR JPY/INR

Economic gauge for the next week

Date Currency Event PREVIOUS

29th Sept EUR German Consumer Price Index - EU Harmonised (MoM) 0.00%

29th Sept EUR German Consumer Price Index - EU Harmonised (YoY) 0.80%

30th Sept EUR EUR German Unemployment Change 2K

30th Sept EUR German Unemployment Rate s.a. 6.70%

30th Sept EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index - Core (YoY) 0.90%

30th Sept EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index Estimate (YoY) 0.40%

30th Sept USD Consumer Confidence 92.4

01st Oct USD ISM Manufacturing 59

02nd Oct EUR European Central Bank Rate Decision 0.05%

03rd Oct USD Change in Non-farm Payrolls 142K

03rd Oct USD Unemployment Rate 6.10%

03rd Oct USD ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite 59.6

14

®

Mr. Anurag Bansal (Director, SMC Group) addressing the audience during the “Investor Awareness Seminar” organized by SMC at Hotel A, Ludhiana.

Mr. Subhash C Aggarwal (CMD, SMC Group) & Mr. D K Aggarwal (CMD, SMC Real Estate Advisors) sharing their thoughts during

National Conference on “Real Estate & Infrastructure Investment Trusts (REITs)” organized by ASSOCHAM at Hotel Taj Mansingh, New Delhi.