Currency Moves & Central Bank Policy

8/17/2019 Currency Moves & Central Bank Policy

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The world’s central banks have split into two camps, the few that are likely to tighten and the majority

with easing on their agenda. This division has reintroduced the currency markets to an old

acquaintance: a dollar bull market. Our analysis plots the major central-bank moves

and considers how the rest of 2015 will play out.

& Central Bank Policy

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March 18, 2015 Bloomberg Brief Currency Moves 2

QUICKTAKEKeep the (Cheaper) Champagne on Ice

BY SCOTT LANMANThe almighty dollar is mightier than ever since the global financial crisis. As the U.S.

economy surges and most others slump, investors are flocking to it, enabling the U.S. toborrow lots of money at low interest rates.American consumers can feast on it, buying imported goodies for less. U.S. politicians

tout it as evidence of the economy’s eternal dynamism.Other countries are driving their currencies down to make their goods more

competitive on the world market. Not the U.S. It stands out as the one nation that prefersits money superpower-strong.

That’s a mixed blessing.The high dollar hurts some American multinational companies’ earnings by reducing

the value of sales abroad. It pushes down inflation that’s already considered too low.For the rest of the world, danger lurks in surging dollar-denominated debt sold in

emerging markets like Brazil and India; the stronger dollar makes those bonds harder torepay.

The U.S. Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against six major currencies,surged 12.6 percent in 2014 and touched an 11-year high in March. Higher U.S. interestrates, expected this year, would make the dollar more attractive, pushing its valuehigher.

Drug maker Pfizer said currency swings cut its revenue by 3 percent, or $449 million,in the fourth quarter. A stronger dollar means a weaker yen, hurting U.S. automakers byhelping Japanese competitors like Toyota, which make more money on each car sold indollars.

A slumping euro means good things for companies in Europe that sell in the U.S. InAfrica, the rising greenback threatens to curb borrowing this year after countriesincluding Ghana, Ethiopia and Kenya took advantage of record low interest costs indollars to finance road building and power projects.

Then there’s a slowdown in the high-end home market in places like Miami, Las Vegasand Los Angeles, where foreign buyers need more of their own money to cover prices in

stronger dollars.The Treasury Department is unwavering in its allegiance to the strong dollar.Elsewhere there are other opinions.

Commerce Secretary said in January that the potential impact onPenny PritzkerAmerican exporters makes the dollar’s rise “something to keep an eye on.”

At its January meeting, Federal Reserve officials noted the greenback’s strength wouldbe a “persistent source of restraint” on U.S. exports. Japanese policy makers are warythat declines in the yen could damage confidence.

As Japanese and European central banks buy bonds to stimulate their flaggingeconomies, investors are likely to pour more money into the U.S.

The resulting rise of the dollar, warned Former Treasury Secretary Lawrence, could slow the economy significantly. So Americans should hold off on theSummers

champagne, even if the strong dollar makes it a bargain.— For a full version of this overview, click the QuickTake

CENTRAL BANK MONITOR

At least 14 countries have recently cutrates. What do they have in common?PAGE 3

BY THE NUMBERSStronger dollar, weaker (almost)everything else.PAGE 4

U.S. ECONOMYThe stronger dollar may weigh on theeconomy and slow Fed progress onrate normalization.PAGE 5

EUROPEThe chances for euro-dollar parity;how the British pound is navigating amiddle path; and why the Swiss francmight continue to strengthen.PAGES 6-10

ASIAChina's yuan market is signalingfurther depreciation, while a revival inJapan may stem the decline in theyen. Policies may continue to diverge

elsewhere in emerging Asia.PAGES 11-14

COMMODITY FX: CAD, BRLThe oil slump has winded theCanadian economy; Brazil's outlook ismuch worse.PAGE 15

EMERGING MARKETSDollar strength, expected Fedtightening take a toll.PAGE 16

TRADING STRATEGYAfter a decade-long lull, interest in FXmomentum trading is reviving.PAGE 17

COMPANIES OVERHEARDWho's hurting from the strong dollar?Condensed comments from U.S.companies' first-quarter earnings callsand recent presentations.PAGE 18

CONTENTS

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CENTRAL BANK MONITOR

Easy Does ItCentral banks in at least 14 countries have lowered their benchmark interest rates in the past month. What do they have in common?

For most, the answer lies in the last column of the table below. Headline consumer-price inflation is negative or below 1 percent in eightof the countries that have cut in the four weeks to March 18 — and 12 of 24 if the time frame is widened to the past six months.Plummeting oil prices that have dragged inflation lower have also hurt producers' economies, giving their central banks another reasonto ease. Of course, sorting by rate changes ignores two paragons of loose policy: the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank.Stuck at the zero lower bound, they're now relying on asset purchases to boost the economy and stoke inflation.

Source: Bloomberg. Japan excluded because its central bank no longer targets a benchmark interest rate.


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BY THE NUMBERS

The U.S. Dollar Against the WorldThe dollar is getting stronger, the euro

is sinking, and developing marketcurrencies are almost all weaker asmonetary policy in the U.S. and the eurozone diverges.

Click the chart to launch an InteractiveStory Chart investigating the changesglobally.

Ruble Leads the Way Down

Note: All data as of March 18. Record lows encompass the entire Bloomberg series for each currency. Euro data include a synthetic range coveringthe period before its introduction in 1999. On a historical basis, the currency is 28 percent above its record closing low of $0.8272 on Oct. 25, 2000.

Stronger Dollar, Weaker Everything Else

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DOLLAR IMPACTCARL RICCADONNA, BLOOMBERG INTELLIGENCE ECONOMIST

From Strength, Weakness: Currency Appreciation to Pinch U.S. GrowthThose who think it can’t be war because

there are no losers have never lived in theRust Belt. History shows clear winnersand losers when currencies move.

The lessons from the Federal Reserve’sexperience in the aftermath of thefinancial crisis are instructive. TheBernanke Fed did not directly intervene incurrency markets, but it createdconditions which resulted in significantdollar depreciation.

It accomplished this first by cutting rateseffectively to zero and promising to keepthem there for an extended period, then

through aggressive balance sheetexpansion via quantitative easing. Themechanisms through which assetpurchases aided the economy were notentirely understood at the time,particularly since fixed-income yieldsgenerally increased when various roundsof QE were implemented, but a clearchannel did emerge via a weaker dollar.

While the Fed bristled at claims it wasspecifically targeting the exchange rate,its actions drove the trade-weighted dollarto a three-decade low.

At the time, QE critics were dismissiveof the economic impact from a weakerdollar — not unlike some of the refrainsechoing out of Europe presently. Theresults speak for themselves.

A weak currency provides a doubledose of economic stimulus. Exports ofgoods and services become cheaper ininternational markets, and importedgoods become more expensive, bothsupporting domestic production.

Exports are only about 12-14 percent ofU.S. economic output, so an impressivepace of growth is required to significantly

impact growth. This is just what occurredin the first two years following therecession. Real GDP grew by 2.2percent, of which more than 50 percent —1.2 percentage points — was directlyattributable to exports. This was possiblebecause exports grew by 11 percent.

This growth engine was critical. Were itnot for exports, overall GDP would havebeen closer to 1.0 percent — a pacewhich would not have been sufficient toreduce unemployment and begin sowingthe seeds of sustainable recovery.

Put simply: without exports, the U.S.

economy probably would not have beenable to achieve critical “escape velocity.”

What a weak dollar giveth, a strongdollar shall taketh away.

The Fed appears increasingly cognizant

of the potential negative impacts of thestrong dollar, including “importeddeflation” and dwindling factory orders.Appreciation cuts import prices, and inturn weighs on core consumer inflation,largely through falling goods prices. Thishas already pushed the core CPI to thelowest levels since its post-recessionrebound in 2011, and the trend willprobably further intensify in the near termas long as dollar strength persists.

This matters for policy makers who,having signaled willingness to boost rateswhen inflation rebounds, may be stymied

by the core hitting new lows.The impact extends far beyond the

Fed's inflation target as well, because itcreates a difficult pricing environment forU.S. industry — especially manufacturing— in both domestic and foreign markets.

There were signs of this in fourthquarter GDP data, which did not fullyincorporate the cumulative currencymove. The trade-weighted dollar hasappreciated by an additional 10 percentsince the fourth quarter, so that dataprovided only a hint of developments that

will intensify over the next severalquarters.

Imports surged 10.1 percent in thefourth quarter compared to aneight-quarter trailing growth rate of 2.4

percent. This is a sign that consumersand businesses have begun to shifttoward cheaper, foreign-produced goods.

The more than 11-point slide in the neworders component of the manufacturingISM survey over the last six monthsprovides further corroboration thatdomestic industry is being squeezed.

Export growth was positive (3.2percent), but the year-on-year trend isnow approaching the lows of the cycle.The new export orders component of themanufacturing ISM — a useful leadingindicator of exports — has fallen to levels

which suggest outright contraction maybe imminent.

In other words, the small but mightyexport “growth engine” is at risk of shiftinginto reverse.

The headwinds from a stronger dollarcould significantly damp factory output,and in turn weigh on the broadereconomy. This may lead the FederalReserve to move less aggressivelytoward rate normalization, in order toavoid inflicting excessive pain on thefactory sector.

Export Reversal: New Orders Hint at Trouble Ahead


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EURO FUNDAMENTALSJAMIE MURRAY, BLOOMBERG INTELLIGENCE ECONOMIST

The Hardest Part Is Still to Come for the ECB’s QE

A weaker euro is a key channel for theEuropean Central Bank's quantitativeeasing program to affect the economy. Aboost to demand for sovereign bonds isintended to push down yields and sendinvestors hunting for better returnselsewhere. On this metric, the policy isalready a resounding success. The hopeis that the resulting improvement incompetitiveness will help lift the euroarea's economic fog. A lot depends onwhether those nations needing thebiggest boost to demand will be able tocapitalize on the change to relative prices.

The euro has indeed slipped markedly,but it remains to be answered how muchthat owes to QE. Relative rates of returnbetween the euro area and the U.S. arecritical to that assessment. Here, it'simportant to note that not all of the declinein euro-area bond yields can be attributedto the direct effects of QE.

Much of the slippage reflects lowerexpectations of risk-free rates, a globalphenomenon. The 10-year swap rate hasdeclined significantly in both the U.S. andthe euro area in 2014 and early 2015.The first chart shows that the euro-areaswap rate has fallen by more — tradersexpect the ECB's main policy rate toremain lower for much longer. That putssubstantial downward pressure on theeuro relative to the dollar.

Where QE has had a significant effect isin suppressing yields on the assets thataren't risk-free. Spain can now borrow for10 years more cheaply than the U.S., andthe decline in its borrowing costs sincethe beginning of 2014 has beensubstantially larger than Germany's, asthe second chart shows. Overall, while

differences in expectations for policy ratesdoubtless account for some of thedepreciation of the euro, asset purchaseslook to have played a big role too.

In part, some of the recent declines inbond yields and the euro reflect theprocess of price discovery. Much of theeffect of QE on the bond market waspriced in well before the purchasesbegan, but it was never known withcertainty how much the ECB would haveto pay to pry enough bonds away fromtheir owners to meet its targets. The latestmoves in yields suggest it may have beena bit harder than thought — the lower rate

of return that this has prompted may nowbe weighing on the euro even further.

QE has probably played a big role inpushing the euro down against the dollar,but that's the easy part — anyone canbuy bonds, especially with a printingpress. Harder to judge is whether theeuro area will respond with significantimprovements in competitiveness.

First, exporters could push their pricesup (knowing foreigners can now afford topay more) and pocket the margin, ratherthan aim for a bigger market share. Overtime, one would reasonably expectcompetition to erode those margins but itmay take a while for more supply to comeon stream. Until then, that may moderate

the boost to the volume of exports andreal GDP.

Second, new exporting companies don'tappear out of thin air. The banking sectorhas a big role to play in reallocatingcapital away from domestic-facingactivities toward catering to the externalsector — and in some of the countriesmost in need of a boost from externaldemand, the banking sector looks to beleast able to perform that role.

There are nascent signs that the euroarea is turning a corner and lower oilprices will create a bit of extra domesticdemand on top of that generated by QE.Yet it is too soon to chalk up a successfor unconventional monetary policy.

Main ECB Policy Rate Seen Lower for Much Longer

Decline in Spain's Borrowing Costs Outpaces Germany's


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DOLLAR TRENDSCARL RICCADONNA, BLOOMBERG INTELLIGENCE ECONOMIST

Rate Differentials Indicate U.S. Currency on Course for Euro ParityA rudimentary model constructed using

interest rate differentials between U.S.and German yields has done animpressive job at predicting euro-dollarmoves. This model suggests scope formore dollar gains.

The chart shows this, depicting thespread between the U.S. two-yearTreasury yield and the equivalent Germanyield relative to the dollar-euro spot rate.The correlation over the last decade is animpressive 80 percent.

While this technique exhibits somepredictive power, foreign exchange rates

are notoriously difficult to forecast, asthey are driven by a complex array ofshifting factors, including capital flows andexpected rates of return. Still, the modelsuggests that the dollar is likely to hold itsgains or appreciate further, givenexpectations for further widening of thetwo-year interest rate differential asexpressed by the forwards curve.

Presently, the spread is a little over 80basis points. It is projected to beroughly 170 basis points one year forwardand over 200 basis points in two years.

This is consistent with forward guidance

from the respective central banks. TheFederal Reserve is on course to initiatepolicy tightening at some point later thisyear, while the European Central Bank iseasing policy.

Based on this relationship, expectations

for the euro to trade below parity for anextended period seem reasonable —dependent, of course, on the willingnessof Federal Reserve officials to pushinterest rates higher while much of therest of the world eases monetary policy.

Bund-UST Yield Correlation Signals Path to Parity

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EURO TRENDSDAVID POWELL, BLOOMBERG INTELLIGENCE ECONOMIST

Why the Euro's Slide Might Overshoot Parity

The European Central Bank’s path tosovereign bond buying has weighedheavily on the euro, especially versus theU.S. dollar. Diverging monetary policiesare likely to push EUR/USD toward parity,with a chance of a slide beyond thatpsychologically important level.

Quantitative easing has driven thetrade-weighted euro about 14 percentlower during the last year by pushingdown market expectations of interestrates in the euro area and by untetheringthe peg between the single currency andthe Swiss franc. The spread between thetwo-year swap rate for the euro and atrade-weighted average of those of itsmajor trading partners has dropped in thelast 12 months to minus 0.47 percentagepoint from minus 0.20 percentage point.That measure of the euro dropped about3 percent the day the Swiss NationalBank abandoned its peg.

The depreciation of the euro has beenthe greatest versus the U.S. dollar overthe past year among the Group of 10currencies. EUR/USD has fallen by about24 percent.

The ECB is likely to maintain loosemonetary policy much longer than theFederal Reserve to combat deflationarypressures. The unemployment rate is still1.5 percentage points above the OECD’snon-accelerating inflation rate ofunemployment, which may evenunderestimate the spare capacity in theeconomy over the long term. The U.S.

jobless rate is close to its long-runequilibrium rate. That is likely to continuepushing investors in search of higherreturns into the U.S. from Europe.

With EUR/USD having peaked in the

summer of 2008, the currency pair’sdowntrend has further room to run beforeit starts to look overly mature. Trends inthe exchange rate between the euro (or asynthetic measure of the euro before itsintroduction in 1999) and the dollar havehistorically lasted five to eight years. Afterpeaking in January 1980, EUR/USD fellover the next five years and then ralliedfor the seven years that followed. Afterhitting a cyclical top in September 1992,the currency pair fell over the next eightyears before starting an eight-year rally inOctober 2000.

The exchange rate may fall to aboutparity. Major reversals of the currencypair have been associated with at least a25 percent over- or undershoot of the10-year moving average. That level canbe viewed as an estimate of a currencypair’s purchasing-power-parity equilibriumvalue because studies have shown PPPcycles last about a decade. In otherwords, over a 10-year period, on average,a pair should be at the fair value implied

by PPP. The 10-year moving average

currently stands at about 1.34.The 25 percent threshold hasn’t acted

as a cap in the past. It merely acts as amarker of extreme over- orundervaluation that could trigger areversal. If the currency pair breaksthrough the key psychological level ofparity and expectations begin to build inthe months ahead for additional monetaryeasing from the ECB, EUR/USD would belikely to start to slide toward its all-time

low of 0.82.

Exchange Rate Reversals Triggered by Extreme Misvaluation

EUR/USD Trends Have Lasted Five to Eight Years


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BRITISH POUNDJAMIE MURRAY, BLOOMBERG INTELLIGENCE ECONOMIST

Sterling Caught in the Crossfire Waits for Signs on BOE PathThe British pound has made a steady

ascent lately, beating a middle pathbetween a soaring U.S. dollar and aplummeting euro. Behind those currencymoves is the divergence of monetarypolicy between the U.S. and euro area.

The motivation for the differingtrajectories might best be illustrated bythe relative rate of unemployment. Whilethe American recovery has continuedbroadly uninterrupted since the financialcrisis came to an end, the same cannotbe said of Europe — elevated

joblessness persists and has shown only

tentative signs of budging downward. Yetit wasn’t until 2014 that ECB sovereignbond purchases became a safe bet, andthe path of expected policy rates has alsodeclined substantially. Over a similarperiod, the U.S. Federal Reserve slowedand then stopped its asset purchaseprogram and it’s now eyeing its first rateincrease. Consequently, the euro hastanked against the dollar.

Broadly speaking, U.K. monetarypolicy has been restless without anobvious move one way or the other duringthis period.

At the beginning of 2014, the first U.K.interest rate increase wasn’t fully priced inuntil well into 2016. That changed as theyear wore on, particularly after Bank ofEngland Governor Mark Carney gave aspeech in June that was widelyinterpreted as hawkish. Subsequently,expectations slipped again and are nowroughly back where they started.

Taking into account the U.K.’s tradingpartners, sterling has been caught in thecrossfire. The trade-weighted exchangerate has cut a path between the

strengthening dollar and weakening euro,registering a more modest overallappreciation.

That may soon change. Withuncertainty about the margin of slackremaining in the economy, the Bank ofEngland has sensibly placed emphasis onthe wages data in determining when the

lift-off for interest rates should be. Withmany compensation negotiations in April,it shouldn’t be too long before theearnings numbers give a more definitivesignal as to how much spare capacityremains in the labor market. A strong

number may push the BOE closer to theFed’s rate-tightening path, while a weakerone might prompt a delay. In either case,the result would be a lurch in the value ofsterling.

Rate Expectations Are Back Where They Started

GBP Cuts Path Down the Middle on Restless U.K. Policy

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SWISS FRANCDAVID POWELL, BLOOMBERG INTELLIGENCE ECONOMIST

Strong Franc in the Hands of Nervous SwissAs Switzerland struggles to recycle its

large current account surplus, the franc islikely to continue strengthening andbecome increasingly overvalued. Thetrend would probably reverse on arestoration of risk appetite, though thatappears unlikely to materialize in theforeseeable future.

Switzerland has been unable to channelits current account surplus intointernational capital markets since theonset of the euro crisis. Swiss residentsincreased their net holdings of foreignportfolio investment by 448 billion francs

from the start of 2000 through the end ofthe first quarter of 2010, according tocalculations of Bloomberg Intelligenceusing data from the Swiss National Bank.The sum remained at about 426 billionfrancs by the end of the third quarter oflast year, the latest reporting period.

As a percent of GDP, the country’scurrent account surplus remains large at6.4 percent at the end of the third quarter,down from 11.7 percent of GDP at theend of the first quarter of 2010. Thenominal effective exchange rate hasappreciated by about 16 percent duringthat period.

The upward pressure on the currencyappears likely to remain unless eitherSwiss savings are once again pushedabroad or the current account surplus iseliminated. Risk aversion may behampering purchases of foreign assets.The elimination of a current accountsurplus that has been persistently high fordecades also appears unlikely in the nearfuture, though an extended period ofcurrency overvaluation may eventuallytrim global appetite for Swiss exports and

temper the imbalance.The Swiss monetary authorities seem tohave lost their appetite for large-scaleintervention to prevent significantappreciation of the franc, though they areunlikely to completely refrain frommeddling in the foreign-exchange market.The SNB had accumulated about 197billion euros as part of its foreign currencyreserves before abandoning the pegbetween the euro and the franc inJanuary. The SNB appeared unable to

stomach the potential for large lossesfrom euro depreciation as a result of theEuropean Central Bank’s quantitativeeasing program.

The country will continue to suffer froman overvalued exchange rate in themeantime. The nominal effectiveexchange rate is about 25 percent aboveits 10-year moving average, a measure offair value.

Swiss investors taking a plunge intoforeign investments would likely trigger areversal for the franc. One of the firstsigns of that process would be astabilization of the currency in theabsence of reserve accumulation. Thatstill seems like a distant prospect as theeuro crisis persists and a recovery inglobal growth since the slowdown of 2011remains elusive.

Swiss Pause in Net Buying of Foreign Financial Assets

Swiss Current Account Surplus Still Large


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JAPANESE YENTOM ORLIK, BLOOMBERG INTELLIGENCE ECONOMIST

Japan's Revival May Mean End of Yen DeclinesThe yen’s weakness has been a

reflection of Japan’s. As the economyshows signs of revival, the currency mayavoid further declines.

The 28 percent fall in the yen againstthe dollar since the end of 2012happened in two stages. The first came atthe beginning of 2013 in anticipation ofand in reaction to Japan's first round ofquantitative easing. The second started inAugust 2014 in advance of the secondround of QE.

The consensus forecast calls for theyen to end 2015 at 125 to the dollar,

down from around 121 as of mid-March.It’s true that the coming first move on U.S.interest rates will widen the ratedifferential. Still, as that is the most widelyanticipated central bank move in theworld, it may take more than that for theyen to gap down.

That suggests the forecast is pricing ina further round of easing by the Bank ofJapan.

At first sight, the case for further easinglooks clear cut. BOJ Governor HaruhikoKuroda has staked his reputation onhitting a 2 percent inflation target. A 0.2percent year-on-year increase in prices inJanuary, excluding the impact of the salestax increase, is far off track. That explainswhy about three-quarters of theeconomists surveyed by Bloombergexpect more easing by the end of theyear.

On closer examination, underlyinginflation dynamics are looking morepositive. Labor markets are tight, with theunemployment rate at 3.6 percent inJanuary. That raises hopes for asubstantial boost in salaries during the

spring wage negotiations — providingsolid demand to underpin rising prices.The Tankan survey shows firms areoperating at close to full capacity.

Inflation expectations, which the BOJsays are a crucial component of itsstrategy, are so far stable. The BOJ’shousehold survey shows expectations ona five-year time horizon have actuallyedged up slightly. In a speech in March,Deputy Governor Hiroshi Nakaso saidthat if inflation expectations remainunaffected by the oil price drop andunderlying trends in inflation are positive,

there is no need for monetary policy torespond.

There are other reasons to expect theBOJ to stay on hold. Massive purchasesare already distorting the operation ofgovernment debt markets. ETF, REIT andother markets where the BOJ mayexpand its operations are much smaller insize, and thus are much more prone todistortion. Small businesses arecomplaining that a weaker yen is hurting

their profits.Put it together and there could be

enough to keep the BOJ on hold, even ifoil drags the CPI further down in themonths ahead. By the time October —the most common pick for further easing— rolls around, the impact of the oilplunge will be fading and the story oninflation may look a lot more positive. Inthat case, bets on further easing, and aweaker yen, will prove wide of the mark.

Yen Weakness Runs Ahead of Rate Differential

Tight Labor Markets May Keep BOJ on Hold


12/21


CHINESE YUANTOM ORLIK AND FIELDING CHEN, BLOOMBERG INTELLIGENCE ECONOMISTS

Dollar's Strength Is China's WeaknessA crawling peg with the U.S. currency is

a boon for China during periods of dollarweakness. In times of dollar strength, itthreatens a bust.

A 25 percent climb in the dollar index inthe past year presents China with adifficult choice. Following the dollar uprisks adding to the woes of exporters,already suffering from higher labor costs.Allowing the yuan to fall risks capital flightand financial stress.

Signals from the market showexpectations of depreciation. The yuan’sspot price is hugging the weak end of its

trading band. The offshore price isweaker than the onshore. At 6.26 perdollar as of mid-March, the yuan hasdeclined about 1.8 percent against thegreenback in the past year.

The only thing preventing a morepronounced drop in the currency is thecentral bank. Since the end of November,the People’s Bank of China has beenusing its daily fixing to claw back themarket losses of the previous day. Onoccasion, that has meant pulling thecurrency back a full 2 percent from thelast day’s close.

The currencies of China’s Asianneighbors have been falling sharply. Theyuan’s moderate fall against the dollarhas still left it up 6 percent year on yearon a real effective basis. With a currencywar raging around it, and exports a crucialsource of demand in a flagging economy,it may seem odd that China’s central bankis playing the role of peace keeper.

At the top of the list of reasons isconcern about capital flight. China sawrecord capital outflows in the fourthquarter of 2014. Early signs suggest that

has continued into the start of 2015. Apronounced fall in the yuan would add tothe incentive to exit. That would increasevolatility in banks’ deposit bases, addingto risks to financial stability.

China’s overseas borrowing has beengrowing fast. Data from the Bank forInternational Settlements show foreignclaims on China rising to $1.7 trillion inthe third quarter of 2014, almost double

the $906 billion total at the end of 2012. Aweaker yuan would add to repaymentcosts and raise financial stress for debtorfirms.

The consensus forecast is for the yuanto end the year at 6.21 to the dollar, up

slightly from the current 6.26 spot price.That seems too optimistic. Given marketpressure, the plight of the export sectorand risks from capital flight, somethingbetween stability and mild depreciation isthe most likely outcome.

Bear Hug: Yuan Sticks to Weak End of Trading Band

Weaker Currency Adds to Incentives for Capital Flight

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KOREAN WONFIELDING CHEN, BLOOMBERG INTELLIGENCE ECONOMIST

South Korean Won Won't Hit Rock Bottom in Race DownSouth Korean officials will likely feel

continued pressure to weaken the won tosupport the country’s external sector asnear-term domestic growth prospectsdeteriorate. The degree of furtherdepreciation may be limited by SouthKorea’s huge current account surplus andthe potential for an economic turn-aroundon pro-growth government policies.

The won has been trending loweragainst the dollar since mid-2014, with anunexpected rate cut by the Bank of Koreaon March 12 setting the stage foradditional depreciation in the months

ahead.Korean policy makers have grownvisibly more concerned in recent monthsat actions taken by foreign central banks— including Japan's and Europe's — thathave led to depreciation of theircurrencies. Korean exports account formore than 50 percent of GDP. Koreanproducts from auto parts to electronicscompete head to head with Japan's in theglobal market, and Europe is a majorexport market. So any substantialdepreciation in the euro or yen that isn'tmirrored by the won stands to hurtKorean exporter competitiveness.

While the won has fallen 5.3 percentagainst the dollar in the past year,sharper falls in the yen and the euro haveleft it stronger on a real effective basis.This likely added motivation for the Marchrate cut.

China is also a major concern forKorea. The region’s largest economy isKorea’s biggest export market,accounting for about one quarter of totaloverseas sales in 2014. China’s importsfell about 20 percent year on year in the

first two months in 2015. Expectationsthat China’s GDP growth may decelerateto 7 percent or lower this year from 7.4percent last year damp Korea’s exportoutlook and may provide governmentofficials with further impetus to weakenthe won.

Domestically, there is more room for theBOK to cut. Even after three25-basis-point rate cuts since August,Korea’s inflation rate remains well belowthe central bank's target. More interestrate cuts, combined with an expected

liftoff by the Fed this year, would mean a

narrowing won-dollar interest ratedifferential. That promises to add to fundoutflows, deepening the persistent capitalaccount deficit and weakening thecurrency.

Yet there may be limits to how low thewon can go. Korea maintains a largecurrent account surplus that totaled $89.2billion, or about 6 percent of GDP, in2014. The Bloomberg consensus forecast

is for the current account surplus to be asimilar proportion of GDP in 2015,indicating strong demand for the won.

Additionally, looking further ahead,economists forecast a gradual pickup inSouth Korea’s economy, to 3.4 percentGDP growth in 2015 and 3.6 percent in2016. That may eventually reigniteinvestors' appetites for Korean assets.

South Korea's Exports Have Decelerated

Won's Weakness Against Dollar Is Relative


14/21


EMERGING ASIATAMARA HENDERSON, BLOOMBERG INTELLIGENCE ECONOMIST

2015: The Year of Relative Value in Asian CurrenciesThe Philippine peso and Indian rupee

are out-performing peers in emergingAsia this year, and are among the fewcurrencies that have gained groundagainst the U.S. dollar. In contrast, all ofthe currencies in the G-10 haveweakened against the greenback.External dynamics — including FederalReserve policy, oil prices, Chinarebalancing and currency wars —suggest this divergence may persist intoyear-end.

Fed Uncertainty: Risk appetite tends toincrease as uncertainty diminishes,

suggesting that once the timing andtrajectory of Fed rate hikes are known,the U.S. dollar may weaken. A"buy-the-rumor-sell-the-fact" phenomenonis also supported by extreme positioningin the greenback by non-commercialaccounts shown in U.S. CommodityFutures Trading Commission data. Theemerging Asia currencies that havebenefited the most in the past fromimproved risk appetite are typically thosewith higher real yields and currentaccount deficits. India has both. Thailandand Malaysia have the highest real yieldscurrently, while Indonesia also has acurrent account deficit.

Deflation Mirage: The plunge in oilprices since June was supply-driven. Thisindicates a limited role for central banksaside from ensuring no second-roundeffects. With lower oil prices supportive ofdiscretionary spending, deflation risk inmost economies is low. Absent a furtherplunge in oil, the impact on inflation andeconomic growth will be temporary —fading in the second half of the year asthe favorable basis of comparison erodes.The currencies in emerging Asia thatbenefit most from low oil prices are thosewith higher consumption and oil importconcentrations, such as India. Growth inthe Philippines and Indonesia is alsoconsumption-driven, while South Koreahas a significant oil import share, or about27 percent of total imports. As the oilprice effect on inflation fades intoyear-end, the currencies of Asia's oilproducers — Malaysia and Indonesia —have potential to outperform.

China Reform: China's rebalancing

from investment- to consumption-drivengrowth benefits more trade-relianteconomies where discretionary consumergoods and services comprise a largeshare of total exports. In emerging Asia,South Korea, Taiwan and Thailand aremore prominent members of theautomobile supply chain. Thailand andMalaysia have the highest number oftourists.

Currency Wars: The recent trend hasbeen to use the oil-related drop in inflation

as a reason to loosen monetary policyand maintain export competitiveness.Central banks in Malaysia, thePhilippines, Taiwan and Vietnam have yetto engage in the currency war. Marketforces have already significantlyweakened the ringgit, which dropped intandem with oil prices. Competitivedevaluations, at best, provide a temporaryboost to growth. As inflation normalizesinto year-end, monetary policy mayappear too accommodative in Indonesiaand Thailand, as suggested by TaylorRule metrics.

Asia's Divergent Currency Performance May Persist

Rupee, Peso Display Higher Risk-Adjusted Returns


15/21


CANADIAN DOLLARRICHARD YAMARONE, BLOOMBERG INTELLIGENCE ECONOMISTLoonie May Continue to Weaken as Central Bank Cuts

The Canadian dollar hit a six-year lowagainst the U.S. dollar after the Februaryemployment report showed the impact ofthe oil slump. The Bank of Canada willprobably try and get ahead ofdeteriorating economic conditions bycutting its benchmark interest rate anadditional 25 basis points. This couldcause the loonie to retest the 1.39 levelper U.S. dollar last seen in 2004.

The Bank of Canada’s next meeting isApril 15; 11 of 19 economists surveyed byBloomberg expect another cut during thesecond quarter.

The Bank of Canada will probably view

a weaker loonie as a positive booster forexports, while lower rates will positivelysupport non-oil business sentiment andinvestment. These tailwinds should helpkeep at bay the full negative impact oflower oil prices on Canada’s economy.

BRAZILIAN REALMICHAEL MCDONOUGH, BLOOMBERG INTELLIGENCE ECONOMISTBrazil's Real Has More Room to Fall on Domestic Hurdles, Fed Action

The Brazilian real is the worstperforming emerging market currencyyear-to-date. A deterioration in domesticoutlook that has fueled the decrease islikely to persist. Expectations of FederalReserve tightening are also in play, andwill likely continue to be a factor.

Brazil faces substantial hurdles inachieving its 2015 primary surplus targetof 1.2 percent of GDP. Any perceptionthat the reform agenda is lagging wouldfurther impair investor confidence.

Last year, Brazil realized a primaryfiscal deficit for the first since 1997, ataround 0.6 percent of GDP. It hasexperienced a primary deficit in everymonth but two since May 2014. Aworsening drought in the country will alsobegin to weigh on economic growth andsentiment.

To thwart rapid depreciation and steminflation, the central bank has conducted175 basis points of rate increases sinceOctober. A collapse in commoditieshelped push the current account intodeficit and FDI failed to compensate.

This heightens the importance of highly

volatile portfolio flows to offset fallingdemand for reais. It comes at a time whileBrazil’s worsening political and economicoutlook deters foreign investor appetite,even at higher domestic rates.

Eventual tightening by the Fed wouldlikely further reduce demand for emergingmarket assets, including the real. Brazil’scentral bank may also reduce foreignexchange market intervention.

Canada Looks to Weaker Loonie to Support Exports

Brazil Real in Fundamental Rut


16/21


EMERGING MARKETSMICHAEL ROSENBERG, BLOOMBERG ECONOMIST & BOB LAWRIE, PRODUCT MANAGER

Caught Between Capital Outflows and Weak Domestic DemandA combination of dollar strength and the

anticipation of tighter Federal Reservepolicy is exerting a toll onemerging-market asset prices. For themost part, these declines significantlyexceed those that occurred during the lastselloff in the second quarter of 2013 —the "taper tantrum."

Emerging-market equity prices, asreflected in the MSCI-EM equity index,are down roughly 14 percent sincemid-2014. JPMorgan's EM bond spreadindex (EMBI+), which captures the spreadon EM bonds relative to U.S. bonds, has

surged to 410 basis points from 275 basispoints in mid-2014. And the returns onEM FX carry-related strategies havecrumbled in the past nine months, as along position in a basket of eight EMcurrencies funded with U.S. dollars hasdropped 19 percent since mid-2014.

On top of all this, commodity priceshave tumbled some 38 percent over thelast nine months, which has a negativeimpact on EM economies whose exportsare linked to commodity-pricedevelopments.

All of these adverse price trends areexerting significant downward pressureon capital flows to EM economies. TheInstitute of International Finance reportsthat net capital flows to EM economieshave once again moved below average.Our own modeling work suggests that abigger slide in EM capital flows lies in theoffing.

Bloomberg has constructed a highfrequency composite index to gaugecapital flows to EM economies on areal-time basis. The Bloomberg EMCapital Flow Proxy index tracks the trend

in EM equity prices, bond spreads, carrytrades and commodity prices to assesswhether the demand for EM assets as awhole is rising or falling. This compositeindex is highly correlated (0.85) with EMportfolio flows as compiled by the Instituteof International Finance.

The chart shows that the BloombergEM Capital Flow Proxy index is currentlysliding at a much faster pace than the

IIF’s monthly EM Capital Flows Trackerindex. If the strong correlation between

the two series continues to hold, wewould expect to see a further slide inactual emerging-market capital flows.

The principal advantage of theBloomberg Proxy index over conventionalmeasures of EM capital flows is that theBloomberg index is available on areal-time basis and thus should coincidewith changes in actual capital flows.Indeed, the recent slide in our EM CapitalFlow Proxy Index appears to be followinga time-honored script that has played outin past Fed tightening cycles.

Most studies find that changes inFederal Reserve policy have had a bigimpact on capital flows to EM economies,although the relationship is by no meansperfect. In several instances, Fedtightening moves have had a significantnegative influence on EM capital flows —notably the early 1980s tightening, whichmay have helped trigger the EM debtcrisis in 1982; the 1994 tightening, whichmay have triggered the Mexican pesocrisis later that year; and the 2013 "tapertantrum" that helped precipitate a major

slide in EM asset prices. If past trendsoffer a hint to possible future moves, then

EM capital flows may remain vulnerable going forward, particularly as we get

closer to the day when the Fed Fundsrate finally lifts off.

Investors may wonder what measuresEM policy makers will consider to stem afurther slide in EM capital flows. Raisinginterest rates to attract capital inflows isone possible step, but such a move wouldrun against the need for lower interestrates for domestic economicconsiderations. The need for lower ratesis evidenced by the IIF's EM GDPmonthly coincident economic indicator,which has been sliding in recent months.

EM policy makers may also be reluctantto hike rates at a time when the euro issliding sharply versus the U.S. dollar. Apolicy rate boost would run the risk ofundermining the competitiveness of EMeconomies versus their euro-areacounterparts. In the end, it may be in thebest interests of EM policymakers tosimply ride out the storm, as attempts tocounter capital outflows might do moreharm than good.

Bloomberg's Proxy-Flows Index Slides


17/21


TRADING STRATEGYMICHAEL ROSENBERG, BLOOMBERG ECONOMIST, & BOB LAWRIE, PRODUCT MANAGER

FX Momentum Trading Makes a Comeback After a decade-long lull, interest in FX

momentum trading is beginning to turn.Profits are returning too. The U.S. dollarhas rallied against most G-10 andemerging-market currencies, generatingsignificant returns for trend-followinginvestors.

For investors who make tactical shiftsamong FX trading styles (such as carry,momentum and valuation), the dollargains are probably signaling a shift infavor of FX momentum and away from FXcarry. It would be the first such signal infavor of momentum since 2009.

Currency momentum and trendfollowing trading strategies have longbeen popular trading tools for FX marketparticipants who rely on technical tradingrules for both portfolio and riskmanagement purposes. Numerousacademic studies document that a varietyof trend-following trading models wouldhave generated significant risk-adjustedprofits in the past, at least in the 1970s,1980s and early 1990s. More recentstudies have found that whatever excessreturns were available during that earlierperiod largely disappeared during theGreat Moderation and subsequent years.

Momentum strategies' returns dependon extended periods of directionalcurrency movements. Looking at thefrequency of losing and winning trades ina typical trend-following trading strategy,there are often more losing trades thanwinning trades. Profits can still be earnedover time if losing trades are closedquickly while winning trades are allowedto run. If the macro environmentgenerates more muted swings inexchange rates, however, one runs the

risk that the correctly predicted up-movesdo not carry far enough to offset the largenumber of small losses.

At the same time that the macroenvironment was becoming more benignduring the pre-financial crisis period, theFX market in general was becoming moreefficient. As more players — notablyCTAs, hedge funds and mutualfunds/ETFs — entered the market

seeking to exploit the excess returnsavailable to momentum traders, theircollective actions began to arbitragethose profits away. With FX volumessurging, transaction costs declining andthe electronic dissemination ofinformation, the growing list of activemarket participants were able toessentially eliminate whatever excessreturns were still available in the new,benign macro environment.

Most studies find that over the course ofthe 1990s, the profits derived frommomentum trading gradually declined andvirtually disappeared for G-10 currenciesby the early 2000s. Momentum profitswere found to be still available in the caseof EM currencies where trading wasgenerally less crowded and thus lessefficient. Also, the macro backdrop in theEM sphere was more conducive fortrend-following strategies as significantdifferences in EM GDP growth rates,inflation rates and real interest ratesworked in tandem to generate relatively

long and pronounced swings.The macro environment became less

benign in the 2000s, with the initialshocks of the bursting of the tech bubble,the 9/11 attacks and after-effects in theearly 2000s, and then the global financialcrisis in 2008 and the weak economicrecovery that followed.

Studies find that in the aftermath of amajor financial market downturn, riskappetites tend to be low and perceivedtail-risk probabilities tend to beconsiderably higher than normal. Thesestudies generally find that the returns tomomentum trading turn down during suchperiods.

Not only did the returns on currencymomentum investing weaken significantlyin the first decade of the new millenniumand slightly beyond, but the returns onequity momentum investing performedpoorly as well. Indeed, the 2000-09 periodmarked the first decade that equitymomentum investing posted a negativereturn since the 1930s.

Returns Swing Back to Momentum

The Deutsche Bank currency momentum and carry-trade strategy indexes calculate thecumulative return on a hypothetical benchmark portfolio that is long the three G-10 currencieswith the highest 12-month spot (or carry) return and simultaneously short the three G-10currencies with the lowest 12-month spot (or carry) return, all versus the U.S. dollar.

http://bit.ly/Keene2014http://bit.ly/Keene2014


18/21


COMPANIES OVERHEARD

Dollar Strength Punches Hole in Some Exporters' Earnings StatementsMany U.S. companies operating overseas are hurting from the stronger dollar. But a little preparation — or hedging — goes a long way.Below, we've condensed comments from first quarter earnings calls and recent presentations. The comments have been edited.

GAP CFO SabrinaSimmons (Feb. 26earnings call) "Both:the Japanese yen andthe Canadian dollarhave depreciated byabout 30 percent overthe past two years.

With the continuing depreciation of theseand other currencies against the dollar,

our reported results have been and areexpected to be negatively impacted.”

Weyerhaeuser CEO Doyle Simons(Jan. 30 earnings call) “A stronger dollar:generally is not a positive forWeyerhaeuser. In terms of Japaneselogs, what we've seen is the demand hasnot been affected by the strong dollar. Butif it continues, it could potentially affectour price. In terms of Chinese logs, theweak ruble is making Russian logs lessexpensive than U.S. logs. That, of course,reduces the price that the Chinese arewilling to pay. With that said, there is apractical limit on just how much Russiacan provide and the other thing is if pricesare not at desirable levels, we are able toredirect some of our logs to domesticmarkets, which are holding up very well.”

3M VP of investor relations MatthewGinter (March 17 presentation): "In thelate 1990s when the Asian currenciesdevalued, our hedging approach was alittle bit more short term. We werehedging in our company maybe over a

two-to-three-month horizon. So on theheels of that, we decided to leg in to thestrategy that we've been working since2000, which is actually hedging 12months forward on the developed marketcurrencies. And we do that on a rolling12-month basis. In mid-2014, we made adecision on a couple of the majorsincluding the euro to just extend thehorizon out to 24 months, still maintainingan overall roughly 50 percent hedgeratio."

Wal-Mart CFOCharles Holley (Feb.19 earnings call) “The:strong U.S. dollarcaused a negativeimpact of over $5billion on revenue.”

Pilgrim's Pride CEO William Lovette(Feb. 12 earnings call): "“I think the most

important evidence [in Mexico] is throughthe recent devaluation of the peso to thedollar, we've not seen chicken demand golower. It actually continues to be verystrong in Mexico. That's one of the exportmarkets where demand for leg quarters,for example, has remained very strong."

Apple CFO Luca Maestri (Jan. 27earnings call) "The biggest impact came:from the Japanese yen, the Russian rublebut also from euro, Australian dollar,Canadian dollar. As we look forward andwe look into particularly the Marchquarter, the foreign exchange headwindswill be stronger in Q2 than they were inQ1."

VF Corp. CFO Robert Shearer (Feb. 13earnings call): “Most of the impact on thetransactional side results from the recentdecision of the Swiss government tomove away from pegging their currency tothe euro. Because our Europeanbusinesses are headquartered inSwitzerland, in U.S. dollars our reportedheadquarter expenses increased. The

reason these transactional impacts arenot more significant is that we have astrong and efficient hedging program thatoffsets nearly all of these influences.”

Inter Parfums CFO Russell Greenberg(March 12 earnings call) "Our earnings:are positively affected by a strong dollarbecause approximately 40 percent of netsales of our European operations aredenominated in U.S. dollars, while almostall costs of our European operations areincurred in euro."

Delta Air LinesPresident Ed Bastian(March 3 presentation);"The strong dollar isclearly having animpact on fuel prices.We haven't done themath, but net-net, we

believe we're a beneficiary to a strongdollar."

Caterpillar CEO Douglas Oberhelman(Jan. 27 earnings call) "The rising dollar,:I would expect in 2015 we would seemore of that. It will not be good for U.S.manufacturing nor the U.S. economy.How that is offset against the lower oil,diesel, gasoline price, I don't know how itworks out, but certainly anybodyproducing in Japan, the U.K. or Europe,particularly Germany, is going to havequite an advantage over their Americancompetitors. We've worked hard todiversify our manufacturing footprint.We're large exporters and have a largecost base in Japan, Europe, U.K., as well,so we're taking advantage of that, butoverall, I don't think it's a very goodpositive for U.S. manufacturing."

Marriott SVP of investor relations(March 5 presentation):Laura Paugh

"The U.S. is not particularly dependent oninternational arrivals, but when you go toEurope, 30 percent of demand in ourEuropean hotels comes from outsideEurope. So a weak euro makes that

market more attractive, and we arehopeful to see more Americans travellingto Paris this year. If you haven't bookedyour flight, you probably should because Ithink this is a real bargain and may notlast long. In the U.S. we're ratherinsulated, but outside the U.S. there's lotsof opportunity."

Visit on the terminal for NI ORANGEBOOKmore C-level economic commentary.

http://blinks.bloomberg.com/screens/ni%20orangebookhttp://blinks.bloomberg.com/screens/ni%20orangebook


19/21


FX MARKETS FOCUSBLOOMBERG NEWS & VIEW

He may be reluctant to admit it, but thebiggest benefits from ’sMario Draghibond purchases are likely to come fromthe plunge in the euro.

The European Central Bank’squantitative-easing program will boosteuro-region inflation by 0.3 percentagepoint this year, with a weaker exchangerate doing most of the work, according toeconomists surveyed by Bloomberg. Theeuro tumbled to a 12-year low as thecentral bank unveiled details of its firstweek of purchases.

“That’s the transmission mechanismthat might be the most powerful,” said

, head ofHans Joerg-Naumercapital-markets analysis at Allianz

, which oversees $412Global Investorsbillion. “They want to keep the euroexchange-rate low.” Click for more.here

— David Goodman and Andre Tartar

This year’s 12 percent plunge in theeuro has ignited the biggest rally onrecord in automakers and helped pushthe DAX Index above 12,000. Demand forways to protect gains is also soaring.

Options on and areBMW Volkswagenthe most expensive in more than twoyears relative to those on the Euro Stoxx50 Index and contracts on Daimlerclimbed to their highest price sinceOctober 2013, data compiled byBloomberg show. All three have ralliedmore than 36 percent this year.

But investors such as atDirk Thielssay theKBC Asset Management

advance may have gone too far, in partbecause currency hedges fromcompanies will limit the benefit toearnings. Click for more.here

— Sofia Horta e Costa

EURO

Euro Seen Draghi’s Savior asQE Targets Economy

Hey Auto Bulls, BMW HasBeen Hedging for Years

Borrowing yen to buy higher-yieldingassets hasn’t been this popular since theglobal financial crisis. That’s a rare pieceof good news for the Bank of Japan’s bidto achieve 2 percent inflation.

Financial institutions borrowed 10.2trillion yen ($84 billion) to send toheadquarters overseas in November lastyear, the most since the same month in2008, BOJ data show. The indicator ofyen carry trade activity has been above 9trillion yen every month since July, afterthe central bank doubled the size of aprogram providing cheap funds to lenderslast year. Click for more.here

— Kevin Buckland and Shigeki Nozawa

The Fragile Five is down to three.

In August 2013 as the Federal Reserveconsidered when to slow its quantitativeeasing, identified theMorgan Stanleyfive major emerging markets with themost vulnerable currencies: Brazil, India,Indonesia, Turkey and South Africa.

Now, as Fed officials debate how soonto raise interest rates for the first timesince 2006, India and Indonesia mayhave dodged the bullet. Morgan Stanleyeconomists say they’ve enacted enougheconomic reforms to have passed “thepoint of inflexion away from their oldmodels of growth.”

More pain before any gain is thescenario Morgan Stanley economists see:Higher Fed rates and a rising dollar couldhelp impose a “catharsis” and force themto act.“The next 12-18 months may makethings sufficiently worse so they can thenget better,” they said.

Click for more.here — Simon Kennedy

CARRY TRADE

Yen Carry Trades at 2008High Boost Inflation Hope

EMERGING MARKETS

Fragile Five Down to Threeas Fed Looms

Mexican companies operating inVenezuela are enduring a failingforeign-exchange system that’s drainingprofit.

The outlook for local units of companiessuch as andMexichem Coca-Cola

is dimming as plunging crudeFemsaprices and the world’s fastest inflationerode the value of the local currency.Click for more.here — Adam Williams,Katia Porzecanski,Patricia Laya

Can Asia beat the rising-dollar curse?The question is far from academicconsidering the central role that astrengthening U.S. currency played insparking the region's 1997 crisis, as wellas Latin America's own financial woes adecade earlier. When the dollar slides,liquidity flows into emerging markets,pumping up growth and assets. As thedollar rallies, it can act like a gargantuanmoney magnet drawing much-neededinvestment away from the developingworld. Click for more.here

— William Pesek

There's more than one way to win abattle. You can inflict increasing damageon your opponent, which is what most ofthe world is doing to the U.S. Or you cangain territory — which is what China isdoing as its currency steals more andmore of the global market. Click forheremore.

— Mark Gilbert

Venezuela Keeps Hold onMexichem as FX Eats Profit

VIEW

How Asia Should DefendAgainst the Rising Dollar

China Has a Strategy forWinning the Currency Wars

Click here for more BloombergFX and .news commentary

For analysis, see the BloombergIntelligence Currency Dashboard.

http://blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories/NLBAMS6S972Uhttp://blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories/NLD89Q6K50XUhttp://blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories/NLC6JY6JTSEOhttp://blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories/NLCQJV6S9730http://blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories/NLDJZQ6S972Ehttp://blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories/NLASTF6S972Xhttp://blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories/NL1TAT6S9737http://blinks.bloomberg.com/screens/top%20fxhttp://blinks.bloomberg.com/screens/viewhttp://blinks.bloomberg.com/screens/bi%20currghttp://blinks.bloomberg.com/screens/bi%20currghttp://blinks.bloomberg.com/screens/viewhttp://blinks.bloomberg.com/screens/top%20fxhttp://blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories/NL1TAT6S9737http://blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories/NLASTF6S972Xhttp://blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories/NLDJZQ6S972Ehttp://blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories/NLCQJV6S9730http://blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories/NLC6JY6JTSEOhttp://blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories/NLD89Q6K50XUhttp://blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories/NLBAMS6S972U


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Currency Moves & Central Bank Policy

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