Cumulative Environmental Impact Assessment

Ankara, Turkey May, 2011

Agi KissRegional Safeguards CoordinatorEurope and Central Asia Region

What is it?

Why do it?

When to do it?

How to do it?

How to use it?

Conditions calling for CEIA

Good practice EIA and beyond

Large vs. Small projects

“Cooking up” Cumulative Impact Assessment

Key TermsValued Ecosystem Component (VEC): “…elements of the natural and human world that are considered valuable by participants in a public review process.”

Can be valued for economic, social, environmental, aesthetic or ethical reasons

Important in themselves and/or serve as indicators

Represent the focus of any EIA or CEIA

Can be large scale or small scale/specific (lake basin > lake > spawning area)

Identified and prioritized by stakeholders, experts, weighting schemes

Environmental system

Valued Ecosystem Component

Potential impacts on VECs Issues/ Indicators

Air Ambient air quality Pollution, e.g concentration of particulates

Respiratory impacts, acid rain

Surface water Local river Reduced volume/ changed flow regime, contamination, changes in course,

Seasonal drying, low water quality, flooding

Groundwater Local aquifers Depletion, contamination Dry or contaminated wells

Aquatic resources Populations of fish species in local river/lake

Reduced water habitat, pollution, temperature changes

Reduced catches, reductions in dependent species

Vegetation Local native forest Clearing, logging, increased fires, invasive species, effects of air or water pollution

Loss of aesthetic/ cultural/ consumption/ tourism value, disruption of hydrological cycles, erosion

Terrestrial fauna Endemics, Red List spp, culturally or economically valued spp, ecological communities and processes

Loss of habitat/food sources, hunting, invasive species, effects of air or water pollution

Loss of aesthetic/ cultural/ consumption/ tourism value, disruption of ecological processes

Zone of Impact: Area encompassing all VECS which could be impacted by the project … Based on ecology, topography, etc. – not just a specified distance or area

Key Terms cont.

Stressors: facilities, developments, actions, trends which all impact (put stress on) the same VEC

e.g.: Cold Lake Oil Sands Project: Alberta, Canada

Ecosystem Component(VEC)

Project Impact Other “Stressors”(Potential Sources of Cumulative Impact)

Local Air Quality – e.g. SO2, particulate levels

Stack emissions Other nearby fuel-burning industries

Surface Water (river volume/width/depth, lake level)

Large amounts of water needed for steam-based oil extraction process

other industrial use, municipal use, irrigation; general drying trend (climate change?)

Aquatic resources – productivity of fish spawning habitat

Sedimentation of lake from oil extraction process

Sedimentation from urban development, agricultural intensification

Fauna – local populations of “red list” mammal and bird species

Direct habitat conversion for oil extraction and associated infrastructure; disturbance due to noise and noxious odors

Direct habitat conversion from agricultural expansion/urban development; increased hunting pressure (from growth in human population, improved road access)

Limit of Acceptable Change (LAC), Carrying Capacity, Threshold values

Impacts = changes in VECs (e.g. reduction in local population of a species, reduction in area of a habitat, increase in SO2 concentration in the air, decrease in lake level)

Unrealistic to set a requirement of zero change

Need to determine acceptable level of change (e.g. allowable concentration of Nitrogen in drinking water; minimum habitat area to be maintained; acceptable level of background radiation, minimum volume of water in a stretch of river during summer, etc.)

Level of acceptable change is based on regulations or socially accepted criteria; can be objective or subjective (e.g. concentration of particulate matter in the air which has been shown to increase frequency of respiratory diseases by X percent; lake level at which economically valuable spawning areas are eliminated; amount of infrastructure development which visitors will tolerate in recreational areas)

Aim of impact assessment is to prevent total change in VEC from exceeding the established LAC/ carrying capacity/threshold

Key Terms cont.

What is Cumulative Impact Assessment?

Project A site

Project A zone of impact

Important Env. Asset

Important Cultural Asset

Existing Facility B site

Facility B zone of impact

Zone of impact of planned/reasonably foreseeable development or trend

Zone of Impact of directly linked or induced development

Project Level vs. Regional Level CEIA

River basin with hydropower projects

Existing project

Planned future project (licensed approved)

Proposed project

Ocean

EIA and “CEIA”

•Minor risk •Few other significant impact sources •Easily understood impacts and interactions

•Major risk•Numerous other significant impact sources•Complex impacts and interactions

Cumulative impacts section of EIA prepared without in-depth CEIA exercise

In-depth CEIA exercise needed(should be simultaneous and interactive with rest of EIA)

EIA should identify potential cumulative impact issues and associated risks:

Why Do CEIA?Because a proposed project is likely to have significant impacts on “regional VECs” which are also impacted by other actions/trends (sources)

Because the impacts from different sources (stressors) can interact in additive or synergistic ways, not always easy or straightforward to predict, requiring in-depth analysis

Because the most feasible and cost-effective mitigation measures might not lie within the context of the proposed project

Because impacts from other stressors can undermine the project’s objectives and/or result in changes of unanticipated severity

Because looking at the broader picture might reveal new opportunities for better overall outcomes

Tip of Iceberg Problem

All

Development

Activities

Source: Lex Brown 2009

Tip of Iceberg Problem

All

Development

Activities

Projects with Environmental Impact Assessment

What information is needed to determine whether EIA for Project A needs to take Facility B into account?

Distance between A and B …. circumstances where this information might be enough?

Located within same ecological system (river/lake basin, watershed, airshed, wildlife home range) …..

what information is needed to know this? what sources can provide it?

Overlapping zones of impact – impact on the same VECs …. what information is needed to know this? what sources can provide it?

When to do CEIA?

Starting point: Project A has potential off-site impacts (e.g. air or water emissions, erosion/sedimentation, noise, etc.) which cannot be eliminated through realistic mitigation measures

How to do CEIA:Assessment Framework

Scoping: • Identify issues/assets of concern, at a regional scale – spatial plans, experts, consultation• Select appropriate VECs and identify LAC/objectives thresholds – experts, consultation• Identify spatial and temporal boundaries for the study based on VECs• Identify other stressors (existing and future) that may affect the same VECs• Identify potential impacts of project and other stressors – focus of the study

Analysis:• Collect baseline data relevant to VECs and potential impacts -- literature, consultation, data collection• Assess likely effects of the project on VECs• Assess likely effects of other actions/trends on VEC• Evaluate potential cumulative (additive, synergistic) effects for total impact – scenarios, modeling

Potential mitigation measures:• Identify potential mitigation measures – for proposed project and for other actions/trends• Evaluate feasibility and costs, develop realistic mitigation plan -- including costs and institutional responsibilities

Evaluation of residual impacts:Compare to LAC/objectives/thresholds

Follow-up (multi-stakeholder)Monitoring of VECs and mitigation measures (project, other actions/trends)Adaptive management – process to make changes based on monitoring

CEIA Framework cont.

Example: multiple use river system (based on case study from Alberta, Canada)

Other existing facilities/impact sources (stressors) on-demand commercial irrigation scheme extracting water during summer growing season hydropower operation diverting water into conveyance tunnels over distance of 2 km

VECs: aquatic resources (indicator species of riparian vegetation, invertebrates and fish) stretch of whitewater rapids popular for rafting (between weir and powerplant)

Limits of acceptable change: Downstream flow must be sufficient to:• maintain viable aquatic ecosystem at all points as measured by LACs established for the indicator species)• maintain minimum 10 km stretch of Class 3 River for rafting year round

Computer model used to determine amount of water which can be diverted to the reservoir based on continuously monitored flow at off-take point

Expert knowledge and existing data were used to determine minimum flow required to stay within Limits of Acceptable Change

Balance between off-take for irrigation and for municipal supply might change over time, based on policy decisions, but total off-take must stay within the designated range

Proposal: divert part of peak flow volume from river to a storage reservoir for municipal water supply

CEIA for Large vs. Small Projects ON THE ONE HAND: Cumulative impacts from numerous small investments can be more than impacts of a few large ones … Large projects more likely to have full EIA, oversight, monitoring

THE OTHER HAND: Costs and timeframe of EA must be proportionate to level of risk of the project. Full CEIA assessment framework is not always appropriate

Expected off-site impacts?

No cumulative impacts expected

NOYES

EIA required (full or limited)

• Other stressors few/easily identified;• Interactions among impacts are simple to understand/evaluate• Project ‘s contribution to total impacts is minor

Discuss cumulative impacts in EIA

• Other stressors numerous/not easily identified• Interactions among impacts are complex• Project’s contribution to total impacts is significant

Carry out in-depth CEIA

Discussion of Cumulative Impacts within EIA

VECs may be general and LACs may be presented in qualitative terms

Usually rely on existing data

Usually use relatively simple analytical tools (e.g. impact matrix)

In-depth Cumulative Impact Assessment

VECs should be specific and LACs mostly expressed in quantitative terms

Often requires collection of additional baseline and impact-related data

Use more sophisticated and quantitative analytical tools (mathematical or computer modeling of alternative scenarios, dose/response curves, GIS/land use mapping, etc.)

2-matrix tool for simple CIA (example of small HEPP)

Matrix 1: potential biophysical and socio-economic impacts of project components

Impacts

Water speed upstream

Water speed downstream

Water volume downstream

Forest cover Slope stability Etc.

Project Component/action

Construction of regulator X XDiversion of water flow XConstruction of access roads X XConstruction of tunnels X Construction of power house XEtc.

Matrix 2: potential effects of other activities in the area Impacts Water speed Water volume Forest cover Slope stability Etc.

Other activities

other HEPP X X X XAgriculture X

Forestry X XMining X XEtc.

Overlapping marks indicate potential cumulative impacts to be considered

How to Use CEIA

Like all EIA, an input to decision-making

Fullest possible information for decision-makers and stakeholders … clarify options and trade-offs

Influence siting, design and operation of projects

Identify development trends which may require strategic planning

Identify most effective and efficient mitigation measures (may be outside of the proposed project)

How we should approach CEIA:

THANK YOU