Cumbria Business Survey 2015/16 – Final Report...Cumbria Business Survey 2015/16 – Final Report...

Research Report

Cumbria Business Survey 2015/16 – Final Report

Prepared for: Cumbria Local Enterprise Partnership


Prepared for: Cumbria Local Enterprise Partnership

Prepared by: June Wiseman, Director and Emma Parry, Associate Director, BMG

Research

Date: August 2016

Produced by BMG Research

© Bostock Marketing Group Ltd, 2016

www.bmgresearch.co.uk

Project: 9808

Registered in England No. 2841970

Registered office:

BMG Research Beech House Greenfield Crescent Edgbaston Birmingham B15 3BE UK

Tel: +44 (0) 121 3336006

UK VAT Registration No. 580 6606 32

Birmingham Chamber of Commerce Member No. B4626

Market Research Society Company Partner

British Quality Foundation Member

The provision of Market Research Services in accordance with ISO 20252:2012

The provision of Market Research Services in accordance with ISO 9001:2008

The International Standard for Information Security Management ISO 27001:2013

Investors in People Standard - Certificate No. WMQC 0614

Interviewer Quality Control Scheme (IQCS) Member Company

Registered under the Data Protection Act - Registration No. Z5081943

The BMG Research logo is a trade mark of Bostock Marketing Group Ltd

Table of Contents

1 Executive Summary ....................................................................................................... 1

1.1 Background............................................................................................................. 1

1.2 Method .................................................................................................................... 1

1.3 Business/organisation profile .................................................................................. 2

1.4 Impact of 2015 Floods ............................................................................................ 3

1.4.1 Extent of impact ............................................................................................... 3

1.4.2 Nature of impact .............................................................................................. 3

1.4.3 Financial impact ............................................................................................... 3

1.4.4 Action taken ..................................................................................................... 4

1.4.5 Impact on trading ............................................................................................. 4

1.4.6 Future concerns ............................................................................................... 5

1.5 Trading and Investment .......................................................................................... 5

1.5.1 Location of decision-making ............................................................................. 5

1.5.2 Markets served ................................................................................................ 5

1.5.3 Trends ............................................................................................................. 6

1.5.4 Business constraints ........................................................................................ 6

1.5.5 Short-term outlook ........................................................................................... 6

1.6 Growth .................................................................................................................... 7

1.6.1 Employment growth ......................................................................................... 7

1.6.2 Turnover growth ............................................................................................... 7

1.6.3 Drivers of growth .............................................................................................. 8

1.6.4 Growth indicators ............................................................................................. 8

1.7 Skills Gaps and Shortages ...................................................................................... 9

1.7.1 Skill gaps ......................................................................................................... 9

1.7.2 Skill shortages ................................................................................................. 9

1.8 Training ................................................................................................................... 9

1.8.1 Provision of training ......................................................................................... 9

1.8.2 Barriers to training ........................................................................................... 9

1.9 Infrastructure developments in Cumbria ................................................................ 10

1.9.1 Moorside Nuclear Plant development ............................................................ 10

1.9.2 Other infrastructure developments ................................................................. 10


2

2 Introduction .................................................................................................................. 12

2.1 Background........................................................................................................... 12

2.2 Method .................................................................................................................. 12

3 Impact of 2015 floods ................................................................................................... 15

3.1 Key points ............................................................................................................. 15

3.2 Experience of storm and floods ............................................................................. 17

3.3 Persistency of problems caused by storm and floods ............................................ 19

3.4 Financial implications of storm and floods ............................................................. 20

3.4.1 Financial losses/costs .................................................................................... 20

3.4.2 Financial gains ............................................................................................... 22

3.5 Actions taken as a result of the impact of storm and floods ................................... 23

3.5.1 Grant applications .......................................................................................... 24

3.5.2 Sourcing business advice .............................................................................. 25

3.6 Trading circumstances .......................................................................................... 26

3.6.1 Current status of business ............................................................................. 26

3.6.2 Mitigations ..................................................................................................... 28

3.7 Perceptions of longer term impacts of the storm and flooding ............................... 29

3.8 Views on the importance of a positive PR campaign ............................................. 31

3.9 Concerns in the near future ................................................................................... 31

4 Trading and Investment ............................................................................................... 33

4.1 Key points ............................................................................................................. 33

4.2 Location of key decision-making ........................................................................... 34

4.3 Markets ................................................................................................................. 35

4.3.1 Customer types .............................................................................................. 35

4.3.2 Customer location .......................................................................................... 37

4.4 Business trends .................................................................................................... 40

4.4.1 Trends in the last 12 months .......................................................................... 40

4.4.2 Anticipated trends in the next 12 months ....................................................... 48

4.5 Business constraints ............................................................................................. 51

5 Growth ......................................................................................................................... 59

5.1 Key points ............................................................................................................. 59

5.2 Employment growth .............................................................................................. 60

5.3 Turnover growth .................................................................................................... 63

5.4 Drivers of growth ................................................................................................... 65

Executive Summary

3

5.5 Growth plans ......................................................................................................... 67

5.6 Growth indicators .................................................................................................. 70

6 Skills Gaps and Shortages ........................................................................................... 75

6.1 Key points ............................................................................................................. 75

6.2 Skill gaps .............................................................................................................. 75

6.2.1 Presence of skill gaps .................................................................................... 75

6.2.2 Occupations with skill gaps ............................................................................ 76

6.2.3 Skills lacking .................................................................................................. 77

6.3 Skill shortages ...................................................................................................... 79

7 Training ........................................................................................................................ 84

7.1 Key points ............................................................................................................. 84

7.2 Training ................................................................................................................. 84

7.2.1 Training provision .......................................................................................... 84

7.2.2 Barriers to the provision of training ................................................................. 87

8 Focus On Infrastructure Developments in Cumbria ...................................................... 89

8.1 Key points ............................................................................................................. 90

8.2 Sample profile ....................................................................................................... 91

8.3 Moorside Nuclear Plant ......................................................................................... 94

8.4 Impact of the Moorside development on businesses ............................................. 97

8.5 Impact of the Moorside development on local economy ........................................ 98

8.6 Awareness and knowledge of other infrastructure development projects ............ 100

8.7 Anticipated impact of infrastructure development projects ................................... 102

9 Business/Organisation Profile .................................................................................... 104

9.1 Key points ........................................................................................................... 104

9.2 Industry ............................................................................................................... 104

9.3 Employment profile ............................................................................................. 105

9.4 Number of sites ................................................................................................... 106

9.5 Organisation type ................................................................................................ 108

9.6 Age of business .................................................................................................. 108

9.7 Geographical distribution .................................................................................... 109

Appendix: Sector classifications and descriptions ............................................................ 111

Appendix: EA Flood Extent Areas .................................................................................... 115

Executive Summary

1

1 Executive Summary

1.1 Background

Cumbria Local Enterprise Partnership (LEP) is a private/public partnership which

provides a strategic lead in activities contributing to the growth and vibrancy of the

county’s economy. Partners include Cumbria County Council, the District Councils,

Cumbria Tourism, Cumbria Chamber of Commerce, Further & Higher Education

Providers, the Lake District National Park and private sector businesses.

Since the mid-1990s Cumbrian partners have commissioned regular surveys of local

businesses on a range of business and employment issues in order to obtain updated

information on the local economy. Areas of investigation covered in previous surveys

and also included in 2015/16 are:

Trading and investment

Skills gaps and shortages

Innovation and growth

Obtaining finance

Training provision

The 2015/16 Business Survey originally also included questions regarding awareness

of, the likely response to and perceived possible impact of prospective infrastructure

developments in Cumbria. However, during fieldwork in December 2015, extreme

weather conditions resulted in significant flooding in parts of Cumbria and the survey

was halted. It was re-launched with a revised questionnaire in March 2016. New

questions were included that covered the extent and nature of businesses’ experience

of the flooding that resulted from the extreme weather conditions in December 2015

and the questions regarding prospective infrastructure developments, obtaining

finance and innovation were removed to accommodate them.

The 2015/16 Business Survey was conducted by BMG Research Ltd, which also

carried out similar surveys in 1998, 2000, 2002, 2004, 2007, 2009, 2010, 2011 and

2013.

1.2 Method

Telephone interviews, with an average interview length of about 25 minutes, were

conducted with 2,186 employers in November and December 2015 and March, April

and May 2016. In November and December 2015, 778 interviews were conducted

and this included 96 interviews with businesses that were located in the areas

subsequently identified as having been directly affected by flooding. In March, April

and May 2016, 1,486 interviews were conducted and this included 78 interviews with

businesses that participated in November and December 2015 and were located in the

designated ‘flood area’. Businesses that were re-interviewed in March, April and May

2016 are only included in the data once i.e. relating to their second interview.

Respondents included directors or proprietors or other senior managers with

knowledge of the issues investigated.


2

The 2016 survey included both private and public sector organisations, which reflected

the 2013 survey scope. Data reported is related to the establishment at which the

respondent was based. In the case of multi-site organisations, this could be a

headquarters (provided that the HQ was in Cumbria) or a branch (depending on the

outcome of the survey’s random sampling processes).

A quota sample was designed, based on the local economy’s sectors (SIC 2007), its

distribution of workplaces of different sizes (in terms of their employment), and Local

Authority Districts. The quotas for sector and size were interlocking. Quotas by district

were independent of the sector and size quotas.

The survey data has been weighted (using information about the local economy from

the Office for National Statistics – IDBR data) so that the findings are fully

representative of Cumbria’s employers.

1.3 Business/organisation profile

The agriculture, forestry and fishing industry accounts for the largest proportion of

businesses and organisations within Cumbria (18%) while slightly fewer (16%) operate

within the wholesale and retail sector.

The majority of businesses and organisations (83%) employ fewer than 10 staff. This

includes 30% of all businesses or organisations that do not have any employees.

Just 6% of all businesses and organisations employ 25 or more staff, which increases

to 30% of businesses or organisations in the education sector.

Just over three-quarters of businesses and organisations (77%) operate from a single

site. This increases to 80% of private sector businesses.

The majority of businesses and organisations (87%) operate within the private sector.

Around one in ten of all businesses or organisations (9%) are a charity/voluntary

organisation, whilst 2% are a local government-financed body and 1% a central

government-financed body.

Seven in ten private sector businesses in Cumbria (70%) have been established for

more than ten years. Of these, most have been established for more than twenty

years (43% of all private sector businesses). Eight per cent of private sector

businesses in Cumbria have been established for less than four years.

South Lakeland is home to a quarter of businesses and organisations within Cumbria

(26%), with around one in five each based in Allerdale (19%) and Carlisle (19%). One

in seven is based in Eden district (14%), while one in eight is in Copeland (12%) and

one in ten in Barrow-in-Furness (10%).

Two-thirds of businesses are located in a rural area (66%), varying from rural hamlets

and sparsely populated areas (around one in five) to a rural town in a more populated

area (also around one in five). A third of businesses is located in an urban city and

town.

Executive Summary

3

1.4 Impact of 2015 Floods

1.4.1 Extent of impact

Two-thirds of businesses (65%) across the whole of Cumbria suffered a negative

impact of the storm and floods that were experienced in December 2015. Three in ten

(30%) reported restricted access to their business premises, with slightly fewer (27%)

reporting a reduction in passing trade and fewer customers.

Actual flooding of business premises was less common but still experienced by one in

eight businesses across Cumbria (13%) but this increased to two in five (41%) in the

EA flood extent areas. Within the EA flood extent areas, more than four-fifths of

businesses (86%) experienced a negative impact of some description.

The sectors most likely to have been affected included the service industries of

accommodation and food; wholesale and retail distribution and, specifically, the visitor

economy sectors, which includes accommodation and food services; travel

agencies/tour operators and arts, entertainment and recreation businesses (including

museums and arts and cultural facilities).

A positive effect, such as an increase in new orders and sales, was experienced by

one in nine businesses (11%; 12% in the EA flood extent areas) with construction

businesses most likely to benefit from this impact (30%).

1.4.2 Nature of impact

Where businesses reported structural damage to their premises, half (50%) reported

the problems as on-going when interviewed between 4 and 6 months after the event.

Other issues that were continuing to cause problems or to be unresolved for significant

minorities of businesses suffering them, included lost/damaged machinery/equipment

(41% reported this as an on-going problem); contaminated land (38%) and a reduction

in passing trade/fewer customers (36%).

Relatively short-lived problems experienced included staff being unable to go into work

(54% reporting this as an issue experienced this for a few days or less); loss of

services (58%); flooded premises (48%); restricted access to business premises

(42%); flooded land (40%) and late or undelivered supplies (38%).

1.4.3 Financial impact

Of the 65% of businesses suffering a negative impact of the storms and flooding; three

in five (60%) reported a financial loss or additional costs as a result. This equates to

around two in five businesses in Cumbria and increases to nearly two in three

businesses in the EA flood extent areas.

The mean financial loss/cost incurred to date (at the time of the interview) is calculated

as £35,759, rising to £84,455 across the EA flood extent areas.

Additional costs were expected by around one in four businesses that experienced a

negative impact and their projected further costs increase the mean financial loss/cost

that is likely to be incurred to £54,608, rising to £99,496 in the EA flood extent areas.


4

Financial loss due to a reduction in trade was most prevalent, with 74% of those able

to provide an estimate attributing their loss to this and the majority of these (42% of all

those able to provide an estimate) attributing all their financial losses to a loss of trade.

Just over half of those suffering financially from the impact of the storms and flooding

(54%) incurred some costs as a result of physical damage with 20% of those reporting

some financial loss/cost attributing all their costs to this.

Just over a quarter of businesses suffering financially (27%) were able to recover at

least some of their costs/losses from insurance or other sources. This rose to nearly

half of businesses in the EA flood extent areas (48%).

There were also financial gains as a result of increases in orders/sales, with more than

half of those reporting some gains (and able to provide an estimate) (55%) reporting

gains of up to £5,000. The mean amount was £35,571, rising to £72,090 across

production/construction sectors.

1.4.4 Action taken

More than two in five businesses that experienced a problem as a result of the storm

and floods (45%) had taken one or more actions as a result. They were most likely to

increase promotion/marketing activity (20%) and/or apply for a grant of some sort

(15%).

Half of those that applied for a grant of some sort (50%; 8% of those that experienced

any problems) applied for a business recovery grant from the Cumbria Business

Growth Hub/Cumbria Chamber of Commerce.

One in eight businesses that experienced a negative impact of the storm and flooding

(13%) sought business advice, rising to 23% of those in the EA flood extent areas.

This business advice was most likely to have been sought from the Cumbria Business

Growth Hub/Cumbria Chamber of Commerce (31%).

1.4.5 Impact on trading

One in eight businesses (12%) was still trading on a limited basis at the time of

interview. This proportion was higher amongst those in the EA flood extent areas

(16%) and amongst those whose premises had flooded (25%). The main issues that

are affecting businesses’ abilities to get back to full trading include a downturn in

trade/customers; the negative image of Cumbria following the floods and infrastructure

issues.

Most expect to be fully trading again in the next six months, but one in eight anticipate

limited trading for at least a further year and one business expects to close.

A third of businesses (36%) were able to avoid a period of limited trading because they

were able to take action quickly to protect property and stock, while a fifth of those that

remained fully trading (21%) had taken previous preventative/resilience measures.

Most businesses that were able to get back to full trading after a period of limited

trading were able to do so, they said, because the impact was limited anyway (81%),

while around half (51%) took action quickly to protect property/stock and just over a

fifth (22%) were helped by the local community.

Executive Summary

5

1.4.6 Future concerns

More than a quarter of all businesses anticipate longer term impacts on the local

economy as a result of fewer visitors to the area (28%). This view is held by a higher

proportion of businesses than average in the Lake District National Park (38%) and

South Lakeland (33%).

One in eight businesses (13%) expects that infrastructure repairs will take longer than

currently planned or will not be fully completed (the A591 had not re-opened at the

time of the survey).

Four in five businesses (80%) considers a positive PR and advertising campaign to

represent Cumbria favourably as essential/very important going forward and most of

the remainder (12% of all) considers it quite important.

When asked how concerned they were about the risk of storms and flooding in the

future; the level of future insurance premiums; and revisions to insurance policy terms

and conditions, views were relatively evenly split between those that were concerned

and those that were not. Around one in five were very concerned about each and this

rose to one in three in the EA flood extent areas, with similar proportions quite

concerned.

1.5 Trading and Investment

1.5.1 Location of decision-making

The majority of decision-making within Cumbria’s businesses is made at the Cumbrian

site. This is most likely to be the case with regard to recruitment (92% of all

businesses; 65% of multi-site businesses) and least likely to be the case with regard to

investment (86%; 41% of multi-site businesses).

1.5.2 Markets served

Private sector businesses continue to be largely focused on the local market including

visitors to Cumbria. There has been little change since 2013. Around three-quarters

of businesses (73%) sell products or services to domestic/individual customers;

around two-fifths (41%) to tourists visiting Cumbria; two-thirds (65%) to private sector

businesses; a third to public sector organisations (35%) and one in six (17%) to

organisations within the nuclear industry.

In terms of geographic markets, there is a trend away from concentration on the local

market and a move towards supplying markets further afield. One in three private

sector businesses (32%) report all their sales in Cumbria now, compared with nearly

half (46%) five years ago.

Just over one in five private sector businesses in Cumbria exports (22%); 15% of all

reported sales within the EU; 11% outside the EU.

On average, 70% of sales, by value, are made within Cumbria. The Cumbria market is

particularly important to businesses in Barrow in Furness (80%) and Allerdale (77%)

and to construction businesses (83%) and those in the health services sector (89%).


6

1.5.3 Trends

A significant minority of private sector businesses in Cumbria report rising staff costs in

the last 12 months (46%). A third report rising energy and raw material prices (35%

and 34% respectively). Fewer, however, report increasing output and domestic orders

(24% and 22% respectively). As one would expect given the greater prevalence of

rising costs compared to rising output and orders, businesses are more likely to have

reported lower than higher profit margins in the last 12 months (34%, compared with

17%).

There is more likely to have been an increase in investment than a decrease in the last

12 months (20% versus 13%). The propensity to have increased investment is linked

to business size; 38% of businesses with 25+ employees; 20% of those with between

1 and 9 employees. A third of ‘Growers’ (34%) – businesses that have reported

employment or turnover growth of 5% or more in the last 12 months – reported

increasing investment in the last year, compared with half that proportion amongst

‘Shrinkers’ – businesses that have reported declining employment or turnover.

Businesses are optimistic about the next 12 months, with a third anticipating an

increase in domestic orders (36%) and profit margins (33%). However, higher

proportions anticipate increasing staff costs (50%); energy prices (39%) and raw

material prices (37%).

1.5.4 Business constraints

When asked to consider whether a range of potential issues were significant barriers

to their business’ performance and efficiency, the economy, regulations, access to or

speed of broadband, taxation, VAT and cash flow featured strongly and above local

issues such as planning, the transport infrastructure and skills issues. Around a third

of private sector businesses cited issues relating to: the local road network and road

access, the way the local planning and development control system operates, the

availability of people able to do the job, availability of affordable housing in the area

and the availability of suitable bus services as significant barriers to performance and

efficiency.

The issues relating to local infrastructure were more likely to be mentioned as barriers

to business performance and efficiency by businesses that have experienced negative

impacts from the storm and flooding.

Businesses identified as ‘Growers’ were more likely to feel held back by a lack of

availability of people able to do the job.

By sector, businesses in the accommodation and food services sector are the most

likely to have increased investment, while those in the construction and arts and

recreation sectors are most likely to have reduced levels of investment.

1.5.5 Short-term outlook

Looking ahead to the next 12 months, there is considerable optimism, with around a

third of private sector businesses anticipating higher levels of domestic orders, profit

margins and cash in the business, while a similar proportion, but less positively,

expects the prices charged to customers to increase. Fewer businesses (around a

quarter) anticipate an increase in investment levels.

Executive Summary

7

Of most significance, and underlying the trend towards higher prices, is the fact that at

least half of all private sector businesses expect the trend for higher energy and raw

material prices to continue, while more than two-fifths anticipate an increase in staff

costs; the latter reflecting the proportion that reported increases in staff costs in the

last 12 months, suggesting that recent experience is driving future expectations.

1.6 Growth

1.6.1 Employment growth

Four-fifths of all businesses and organisations (80%) reported no change in the size of

their workforce since the same time last year. One in eight (12%) had increased the

size of their workforce and a lower proportion (9%) had reduced the number of staff

employed.

The likelihood of employment growth in excess of 20% was significantly more likely

than average in businesses with fewer than 25 employees (13%, compared with an

average of 8%).

Increases in employment are most likely to have been experienced within

manufacturing and education businesses/organisations, while decreases are most

likely to have been experienced within wholesale and retail and accommodation and

food services.

It can be estimated1 that employers took on around 7,700 new staff in the last 12

months, while shedding around 6,300 jobs. The net increase in employment is

estimated at around 1,400 staff. The biggest gains are to be found within the districts

of South Lakeland (+850 staff approximately) and Carlisle (+750 staff approximately),

within larger businesses and organisations (+1,400 within 100+ employers) and within

construction (+600 staff approximately). There have also been significant gains within

primary industries and health services.

There are significant net losses within the districts of Copeland (-700 staff

approximately) and Eden (-170 staff approximately) and within manufacturing (-170

staff approximately) and professional, scientific and technical services (-140 staff

approximately).

1.6.2 Turnover growth

A quarter of private sector businesses that have been trading for at least a year (25%)

reported an increase in their turnover in the last year. As in 2013, this is closely

matched by the quarter (26%) reporting a decrease.

The findings suggest that around 5,000 businesses experienced turnover growth in the

last 12 months, while around 5,200 experienced decline.

Businesses in South Lakeland are most likely to have benefited from turnover growth

rather than shrinkage (around 1,500 compared with around 1,300, respectively). By

sector, the largest positive net balances – where the number of businesses that have

experienced turnover growth exceeds the number that have experienced decline – are

1 This data is based on the survey data, ‘grossed up’ to represent the business population and

number of employees within the business population.


8

apparent within professional, scientific and technical services (+390 approximately),

business services (+280) and construction (+230 approximately). Within primary

industries there has been significant contraction of turnover, with around 1,700

businesses reporting decline in turnover, compared with just 370 reporting an

increase.

Businesses without employees are significantly more likely to have seen a decline in

their turnover than growth in the last year (around 1,500 compared with around 1,600,

respectively).

1.6.3 Drivers of growth

When asked about the drivers of this growth, they were most likely to stipulate an

improvement in demand in their markets (74%), with better work organisation (55%)

and stronger marketing (50%) also important factors.

Around two-thirds of private sector businesses aim to grow their output, sales turnover

or employment in the next two to three years (69%), which is a similar figure to that

reported in 2013 (68%). Around a quarter (27%) aims to grow in all of these ways.

The factors that businesses expect to drive future growth are very similar to those that

have been identified as having driven recent growth, although improving business

efficiency/productivity is the most frequently selected (77% of businesses aiming for

growth), above that of growth in demand and/or expansion of markets (73%). While,

also strongly featured as a driver of future growth is competitive pricing (73%).

1.6.4 Growth indicators

In terms of growth, three broad groups were identified, based on survey responses.

These were: ‘Growers’; businesses and organisations that have increased the number

of staff employed by 5% or more or that have increased turnover by 5% or more in the

last year: ‘Stable’; businesses and organisations that have the same number of staff

and same level of turnover as 12 months ago, or that have seen an increase or

decrease that is at less than 5%: ‘Shrinkers’; businesses and organisations that have

reduced the number of staff employed by 5% or more or that report a decrease in

turnover of 5% or more in the last year but have not also reported a similar size

increase in employment or turnover.

In addition, a sub-set of ‘Growers’, called ‘High growers’ was identified. These

businesses and organisations have increased the number of staff employed or

increased their turnover by more than 20% in the last year.

‘Growers’ account for 34% of all businesses and organisations (27% in 2013) and this

group includes 10% of all that are ‘High growers’ (9% in 2013) ‘Shrinkers’ account for

22% of all businesses and organisations (19% in 2013). The remaining 43% are

classified as ‘Stable’ (54% in 2013).

Young businesses (those established less than 4 years) are more likely than average

to be ‘Growers’ (41%), while three in ten exporters are ‘Growers’ (30%).

‘Growers’ are significantly more likely than average to have reported upward trends in

most areas of business activity, particularly output, but with the exception of raw

materials and energy prices, for which ‘Shrinkers’ are more likely to have reported an

increase.

Executive Summary

9

1.7 Skills Gaps and Shortages

1.7.1 Skill gaps

Fourteen per cent of businesses with employees in Cumbria identify skill gaps in their

business or organisation, which is the same proportion as in 2013. This proportion

increases to 24% of those with 25 or more employees.

Employers are most likely to identify skill gaps in skilled trade occupations and low

skilled elementary administration and service occupations.

The most frequently cited skills lacking within workforces are technical and practical

skills and advanced IT or software skills.

1.7.2 Skill shortages

A third of businesses (32%) had tried to recruit staff in the last 12 months and more

than half of these (53%; 17% of all businesses) have experienced some difficulties

filling job vacancies. Echoing where skill gaps have been reported, hard-to-fill

vacancies are most likely to have been reported for skilled trades and elementary

administration and service occupations.

Businesses within the varied sectors of construction, accommodation and food

services and professional, scientific and technical services are more likely than

average to report recruitment difficulties.

The main causes of hard-to-fill vacancies have been the low number of applicants,

particularly of those with the required skills, and including a lack of interest in the jobs

advertised and remote locations of workplaces accompanied by poor public transport.

1.8 Training

1.8.1 Provision of training

Half of businesses and organisations in Cumbria (51%) have arranged or funded any

training or development for employees at their site in the last year. Around two-fifths

have arranged or funded any off-the-job training (38%) and/or on-the-job training

(41%).

Business size is the key determinant of training practice with around nine in ten

businesses and organisations with 10 or more staff having funded or arranged training

in the last year (87%), rising to 95% of those with 100 or more staff.

Training is most prevalent within public services, education and health service sectors

(94%, 82% and 91% respectively). It is least prevalent within primary industries (34%)

and construction (46%).

‘Growers’ are significantly more likely than average to have arranged or funded

training (65%), with ‘Shrinkers’ significantly less likely to have done so (44%).

1.8.2 Barriers to training

The most frequently cited barrier to the provision of training amongst those that do not

train is a perceived lack of need (14%), while amongst those that train, the main barrier

to providing more training is that no more money is available for training (15%).


10

1.9 Infrastructure developments in Cumbria

1.9.1 Moorside Nuclear Plant development

Around one in five businesses (19%) sell or provide services to organisations in the

nuclear industry, which suggests that the development at Moorside will have a

significant impact on the local economy.

The majority of businesses and organisations (82%) were aware of the Moorside

Nuclear Plant development prior to taking part in the survey. A quarter of all (24%)

consider themselves quite/very knowledgeable about it.

Awareness and knowledge of the plans is greatest in the district of Copeland (98%

aware; 57% quite/very knowledgeable).

One in six businesses and organisations (17%) thought it likely that their business

would pursue supply chain opportunities from the Moorside development, increasing to

29% within the district of Copeland.

Most businesses and organisations that consider it likely or are undecided with regard

to pursuing such supply chain opportunities think some support in doing so would be

helpful (89% specify any support). This is most likely to be with regard to information

about goods and services required and how to access these opportunities (75%) and

support to help build linkages with potential partners and suppliers (71%).

In terms of the impact of the Moorside nuclear development on businesses and

organisations, the most positive anticipated is the increase in local expenditure

resulting from incoming construction workers, while the most negative impact is likely

to be from the volume of traffic during construction and this is more pronounced in the

district of Copeland.

When it comes to the development’s impact on the local economy, the views of

businesses and organisations are very positive. Very few anticipate a negative impact.

Around three-quarters of respondents anticipate positive change to the extent of new

job opportunities, the retention of young people locally as a result of these new

opportunities and a benefit to the economy as a result of the expenditure of workers

and suppliers.

In contrast, the most frequently mentioned negative impacts are with regard to

potential increases in house prices and the cost of general goods and services locally

due to greater demand. Between one in four and one in five anticipate this.

1.9.2 Other infrastructure developments

In terms of other infrastructure developments in Cumbria, 70% of respondents have

heard of the Walney Off-shore Wind farm; 49% have heard of the BAe Systems

expansion; 33% have heard of the West Cumbria Tidal Lagoon; 28% of the West

Cumbria Mining project and 25% of the West Cumbria Water Supply project.

Respondents are most knowledgeable about Walney Off-shore Wind farm (14% are

quite/very knowledgeable) and the BAe Systems expansion (11%). On the whole,

most of those that are aware of these projects have little knowledge of them.

More than half of respondents that have heard of any of these infrastructure

developments (53%) do not anticipate any impact from them on their business. The

Executive Summary

11

majority of the remainder (38% of all those aware of any) anticipate a positive impact.

This increases to more than half of respondents in Barrow in Furness (53%) and

Copeland (51%).


12

2 Introduction

2.1 Background

Cumbria Local Enterprise Partnership (LEP) is a private/public partnership which

provides a strategic lead in activities contributing to the growth and vibrancy of the

county’s economy. Partners include Cumbria County Council, the District Councils,

Cumbria Tourism, Cumbria Chamber of Commerce, Further & Higher Education

Providers, the Lake District National Park and private sector businesses.

Since the mid-1990s Cumbrian partners have commissioned regular surveys of local

businesses on a range of business and employment issues in order to obtain updated

information on the local economy. Areas of investigation covered in previous surveys

and also included in 2015/16 are:

Trading and investment

Skills gaps and shortages

Innovation and growth

Obtaining finance

Training provision

The 2015/16 Business Survey originally also included questions regarding awareness,

the likely response to and perceived possible impact of prospective infrastructure

developments in Cumbria. However, during fieldwork in December 2015, extreme

weather conditions resulted in significant flooding in parts of Cumbria and the survey

was halted. It was re-launched with a revised questionnaire in March 2016. New

questions were included that covered the extent and nature of businesses’ experience

of the flooding that resulted from the extreme weather conditions in December 2015

and the questions regarding prospective infrastructure developments, obtaining

finance and innovation were removed to accommodate them.

The 2015/16 Business Survey was conducted by BMG Research Ltd, which also

carried out similar surveys in 1998, 2000, 2002, 2004, 2007, 2009, 2010, 2011 and

2013.

2.2 Method

Telephone interviews, with an average interview length of about 25 minutes, were

conducted with 2,186 employers in November and December 2015 and March, April

and May 2016. In November and December 2015, 778 interviews were conducted

and this included 96 interviews with businesses that were located in the areas

subsequently identified as having been directly affected by flooding. In March, April

and May 2016, 1,486 interviews were conducted and this included 78 interviews with

businesses that participated in November and December 2015 and were located in the

designated ‘flood areas’. Businesses that were re-interviewed in March, April and May

2016 are only included in the data once i.e. relating to their second interview.

Respondents included directors or proprietors or other senior managers with

knowledge of the issues investigated.

Introduction

13

The 2016 survey included both private and public sector organisations which reflected

the 2013 survey scope. Data reported is related to the establishment at which the

respondent was based. In the case of multi-site organisations, this could be a

headquarters (provided that the HQ was in Cumbria) or a branch (depending on the

outcome of the survey’s random sampling processes).

A quota sample was designed based on the local economy’s sectors (SIC 2007), its

distribution of workplaces of different sizes (in terms of their employment), and Local

Authority Districts. The quotas for sector and size were interlocking. Quotas by district

were independent of the sector and size quotas.

The survey data has been weighted (using information about the local economy from

the Office for National Statistics IDBR data) so that the findings are representative of

Cumbria’s employers.

The structure of the unweighted sample achieved by the survey and its weighted

profile by sector, size and district are summarised in the following table:

Table 2.1: Sample profile

Achieved interviews

no.

Unweighted sample %

Weighted no.

Weighted/ sample %

ABDE: Primary (agriculture, forestry, fishing, mining, quarrying, electricity, water supply)

172 8 215 19

C: Manufacturing 137 6 110 4

F: Construction 135 6 238 10

G: Wholesale and retail 466 21 388 17

H: Transport and storage 70 3 70 3

I: Accommodation and food services 308 14 218 9

J: Information and communication 46 2 55 2

K: Financial and insurance activities 23 1 37 2

L: Real estate activities 46 2 53 3

M: Professional, scientific and technical activities

165 8 301 11

N: Administrative and support service activities

82 4 130 6

O: Public administration and defence

24 1 32 1

P: Education 154 7 73 3

Q: Human health and social work activities

163 7 131 5

R: Arts, entertainment and recreation

89 4 58 3

S: Other services 106 5 78 3


14

Achieved interviews

no.

Unweighted sample %

Weighted no.

Weighted/ sample %

No employees 401 18 497 23

1-9 employees 1127 52 1274 59

10-24 employees 394 18 260 12

25-99 employees 229 10 131 6

100+ employees 35 2 24 1

Allerdale 428 20 417 19

Barrow in Furness 165 8 231 9

Carlisle 416 19 412 19

Copeland 227 10 264 11

Eden 309 14 281 15

South Lakeland 641 29 583 27

Total 2186 100 2186 100

Results from the total sample may be presumed accurate (with a 95% confidence

level) within a maximum sample error of +/-2.1%. The margin of error on sub-sets of

the total sample is larger, depending on the unweighted number of respondents.

Throughout this report, significant differences between sub-samples and significant

year-on-year differences are highlighted. However, in terms of comparisons with

previous surveys, it should be noted that sample sizes have changed significantly from

year to year and that prior to the 2013 survey, the survey included private sector

businesses only, rather than both private and public sector businesses and

organisations as this year. Furthermore, the questionnaire employed has altered over

time and as a result there are limited reliable opportunities for trend analysis.

Impact of 2015 floods

15

3 Impact of 2015 floods

Chaos in Cumbria: floods turn lives upside down in Lake District (The Guardian 5

th Dec 2015)

Communities in Cumbria have unfortunately suffered several incidents of severe flooding in

recent years most notably in 2005, 2009 and 2012.

On Friday 4th December 2015 weather warnings were issued across the North West as

Storm Desmond threatened strong winds and heavy rain. On Friday night heavy rain

continued and by Saturday morning there were 23 flood warnings and 21 flood alerts across

Cumbria issued by the Environment Agency. Public transport and the road network

throughout Cumbria continued to be disrupted throughout Saturday. By Saturday afternoon

a major incident was declared and severe flooding had been reported in Cockermouth,

Appleby, Keswick, and Kendal as well as outlying areas. In Carlisle, water levels rose to

7.9m in the early hours of Sunday and flood defences were breached. The village of

Glenridding after being flooded on Saturday, was flooded twice more as further heavy rain

caused the river to burst its banks again.

The 2015/16 Business Survey presented an opportunity to ask businesses throughout the

county about the nature, scale, duration and cost of the impact 4-6 months after the incident.

Interviews were conducted with 1,486 businesses located both inside and outside the

Environment Agency flood extent areas. (Please note that the A591 had not re-opened at

the time of the interviews).

3.1 Key points

Two-thirds of businesses (65%) suffered a negative impact of the storm and floods that

were experienced in December 2015. Three in ten (30%) reported restricted access to

their business premises, with slightly fewer (27%) reporting a reduction in passing

trade and fewer customers.

Actual flooding of business premises was less common but still experienced by one in

eight businesses across Cumbria (13%) but this increased to two in five (41%) in the

EA flood extent areas. Within the EA flood extent areas, more than four-fifths of

businesses (86%) experienced a negative impact of some description.

A positive effect, such as an increase in new orders and sales, was experienced by

one in eight businesses (11%; 12% in the EA flood extent areas) with construction

businesses most likely to benefit from this impact (30%).

Where businesses reported structural damage to their premises, half (50%) reported

the problems as on-going when interviewed between 4 and 6 months after the event.

Of the 65% of businesses suffering a negative impact of the storms and flooding; three

in five (60%) reported a financial loss or additional costs as a result. This equates to

around two in five businesses in Cumbria and increases to nearly two in three

businesses in the EA flood extent areas.


16

The mean financial loss/cost incurred to date (at the time of the interview) was

£35,759, rising to £84,455 across the EA flood extent areas.

Additional costs were expected by around one in four businesses that experienced a

negative impact and their projected further costs increases the mean financial

loss/cost that is likely to be incurred to £54,608, rising to £99,496 in the EA flood

extent areas.

Financial loss due to a reduction in trade was most prevalent, with 74% of those able

to provide an estimate attributing their loss to this.

Just over half of those suffering financially from the impact of the storms and flooding

(54%) incurred some costs as a result of physical damage.

Just over a quarter of businesses suffering financially (27%) were able to recover at

least some of their costs/losses from insurance or other sources, rising to nearly half of

businesses in the EA flood extent areas (48%).

There were financial gains as a result of increases in orders/sales, with more than half

of those reporting some gains (and able to provide an estimate) (55%) reporting gains

of up to £5,000. The mean amount was £35,571.

More than two in five businesses that experienced a problem as a result of the storm

and floods (45%) had taken one or more actions as a result. They were most likely to

increase promotion/marketing activity (20%) and/or apply for a grant (15%).

One in eight businesses that experienced a negative impact of the storm and flooding

(13%) sought business advice, rising to 23% of those in the EA flood extent areas.

One in eight businesses (12%) continued to be trading on a limited basis at the time of

interview. This proportion was higher amongst those in the EA flood extent areas

(16%) and amongst those whose premises had flooded (25%).

Most expected to be fully trading again in the next six months, but one in eight

anticipated limited trading for at least a further year and one business expected to

close.

A third of affected businesses (36%) were able to avoid a period of limited trading

because they were able to take action quickly to protect property and stock, while a

fifth of those that remained fully trading (21%) had taken previous

preventative/resilience measures. Most businesses that were able to get back to full

trading after a period of limited trading were able to do so, they said, because the

impact was limited anyway (81%), while around half (51%) took action quickly to

protect property/stock and just over a fifth (22%) were helped by the local community.

More than a quarter of all businesses anticipate longer term impacts on the local

economy as a result of fewer visitors to the area (28%).

Four in five businesses (80%) considers a positive PR and advertising campaign to

represent Cumbria favourably going forward as essential/very important and most of

the remainder (12% of all) considers it quite important.

Around one in five were very concerned about the risk of storms and flooding in the

future; the level of future insurance premiums; and revisions to insurance policy terms

and conditions, and this rose to one in three in the EA flood extent areas.


17

3.2 Experience of storm and floods

Overall, two-thirds (65%) of all respondents reported that the storm and floods had a

negative effect on their business in one or more ways, the most common being

restricted access to business premises (30%), reduction in passing trade (27%) and

land being flooded (25%).

One in five respondents reported that staff had been unable to get to work; supplies

were not delivered or were late (21% for each) and bookings or orders were cancelled

or unfulfilled (20%).

Figure 3.1: Impact of storm and floods (all respondents) Unweighted sample base = 1486

* Services include: water, gas, electricity, telecommunications

30%

27%

25%

21%

21%

21%

20%

15%

13%

12%

11%

11%

10%

9%

5%

Restricted access to business premises

Reduction in passing trade/fewer customers

Land flooded

Staff unable to come to work

Supplies not delivered/late

Bookings/event cancelled

Orders cancelled/unfulfilled

Loss of services*

Business premises flooded

Land contaminated

Increase in new orders/sales

Business premises suffered structural damage

Stock lost

Machinery/equipment lost/damaged

Something else


18

The likelihood of suffering any negative impact as a result of the floods was

significantly higher within the service industries of accommodation and food services

(86%) and wholesale and retail distribution (77%), and particularly among those

working in the visitor economy2 (84%).

In contrast, one in ten (11%) reported an upturn in new orders and/or sales as a result

of the storm and floods with construction businesses significantly more likely than

average to report this (30%). This proportion was also significantly higher within the

business service sector (18%).

Considering only those respondents from businesses in the EA flood extent areas

(18% of the total sample), 86% of businesses reported that the storm and floods had a

negative effect on their business in one or more ways, the most common being

restricted access to business premises, flooded land, and a reduction in passing

trade/fewer customers.

In line with the wider sample, one in ten (12%) of those in an EA flood extent area

reported an upturn in new orders and/or sales as a result of the storm and floods.

2 Visitor economy includes accommodation and food services; travel agents/tour operators/arts,

entertainment and recreation


19

Figure 3.1: Impact of storm and floods (respondents in the EA flood extent areas) Unweighted sample base = 311


3.3 Persistency of problems caused by storm and floods

Where respondents reported that their business had experienced issues as a result of

the floods they were asked how long the problem(s) persisted.

The most persistent problems were those related to structural damage of the business

premises and loss/damage to machinery/equipment; problems which were less

prevalent than many others.

However, problems to do with contaminated land and, of more concern due to the

extent to which it has been experienced, a reduction in customers, also persisted for a

significant minority of businesses, being still on-going at the time of the survey, some

four to six months after the storm.

Other issues that were more persistent included loss of stock and cancellation of

orders and bookings, the latter two clearly also directly related to loss of trade.

58%

49%

43%

41%

40%

37%

35%

35%

31%

31%

30%

29%

19%

12%

11%

Restricted access to business premises

Land flooded (including agricultural; yard; carparks; gardens; other outdoor space)

Reduction in passing trade/fewer customerscoming to premises

Business premises were flooded

Loss of water/gas/electricity/telecommunications

Staff unable to come into work

Orders cancelled or unable to be fulfilled

Bookings/event cancelled

Stock lost (including livestock, raw materials,goods for sale)

Machinery/equipment lost/damaged

Land contaminated (debris etc)

Supplies not delivered/late delivery of supplies

Business premises suffered structural damage

An increase in or new orders/sales

Something else


20

Figure 2.3: How long problems persisted (all experiencing each problem) Unweighted

sample bases in parentheses


3.4 Financial implications of storm and floods

3.4.1 Financial losses/costs

Of the 65% of respondents who reported that their business has suffered as a result of

the floods, three in five (60%) said that they have incurred a financial loss, or additional

costs (whether or not these were covered by insurance), which equates to two in five

of all respondents. This increased to nearly three-quarters (72%) of those in the EA

flood extent areas who reported that their business has suffered and to more than

three-quarters (78%) of those working in the visitor economy.

The figure below highlights the fact that in just over half of instances (52%) the total

financial loss/cost has been, so far, up to £5,000. However, one in nine (11%) reported

losses/additional costs to date of £50,000 or more.

13%

11%

19%

14%

25%

17%

16%

42%

48%

40%

38%

58%

54%

8%

16%

17%

20%

14%

19%

22%

22%

20%

19%

19%

34%

19%

29%

5%

5%

12%

14%

12%

12%

18%

18%

9%

6%

11%

8%

7%

7%

2%

10%

10%

3%

13%

9%

13%

9%

7%

7%

7%

9%

4%

3%

13%

6%

9%

6%

11%

4%

6%

11%

4%

4%

8%

4%

5%

3%

10%

50%

41%

38%

36%

28%

23%

22%

17%

17%

14%

7%

6%

4%

61%

Business premises suffered structural damage(161)

Machinery/equipment lost/damaged (165)

Land contaminated (167)

Reduction in passing trade/fewer customers(546)

Stock lost (163)

Orders cancelled/unfulfilled (351)

Bookings/event cancelled (390)

Restricted access to business premises (502)

Business premises flooded (216)

Land flooded (327)

Supplies not delivered/late (400)

Loss of services* (266)

Staff unable to come to work (450)

Something else (95)

A few days or less A week to two weeks Most/all of December

Dec 15 to Jan 16 Dec 15 to Feb 16 Ongoing


21

Overall, the mean loss/cost incurred at the time of interview was £36,759 and this

varied widely between those in the EA flood extent areas, where the mean loss/cost

was £84,455, and those outside the EA flood extent areas, where the mean loss/cost

was £18,165.

Figure 3.3: Financial losses/costs incurred as a result of the floods (where incurred financial loss/costs – valid responses only) Unweighted sample base: 603

Of the 65% of respondents who reported that their business had suffered as a result of

the floods, a quarter (25%) expected to incur further financial losses/costs as a result

of the floods (or 16% of all respondents), and this rose to a third (34%) of those in the

EA flood extent areas who had suffered (or 30% of all respondents in the EA flood

extent areas).

Where additional costs were expected, one in ten (11%) were unsure how much these

were likely to be. Around one in three (29%) expected the total amount incurred to be

less than £5,000, and one in six (18%) expected the total amount to be over £50,000.

Overall, the mean total amount they expected to incur was £54,608, increasing to

£99,496 in the EA flood extent areas, but still £33,104 among those outside the EA

flood extent areas.

When asked to estimate what proportion of the financial costs incurred by their

business could be attributed to physical damage and what proportion to loss of trade, it

is clear that a significant proportion of those whose businesses had incurred

losses/costs as a result of the storm and floods attributed this entirely to loss of trade.

More than two in five of those able to provide an estimate (42%) said that 100% of

13%

24%

15%

12%

14%

11%

5%

4%

1%

1%

1%

Under £1,000

Between £1,000 and £3,000


Between £5,000 and £10,000

Between £10,000 and £25,000

Between £25,000 and £50,000

Between £50,000 and £100,000

Between £100,000 and £250,000

Between £250,000 and £500,000

Between £500,000 and £1 million

More than £1 million


22

their losses were due to loss of trade, and around three-quarters (74%) attributed at

least some of their losses to this.

In contrast, just over half (54%) of those whose businesses had incurred losses/costs

attributed this to physical damage to at least some extent and one in five (20%) said

that physical damage accounted for 100% of their losses/costs.

Figure 3.4: Proportion of financial losses/costs incurred accounted for by physical damage/loss of trade (where experiencing financial losses/costs – valid responses only) Unweighted sample bases in parentheses

Where respondents reported incurring a financial cost as a result of the floods, a

quarter (27%) said they were able to recover at least some of this from insurance or

other sources, and this figure rose to close to half (48%) of those in the EA flood extent

areas.

The likelihood of being able to recover at least some of the costs increased with

business size, from 20% of those with no employees, 27% of those with 1 to 9

employees, 33% of those with 10 to 24 employees, to 40% of those with 25 or more

staff.

3.4.2 Financial gains

Among the 11% of respondents who reported that their business had experienced

increased or new orders/sales as a result of the floods and were able to provide an

estimate, over half (55%) reported gains of up to £5,000, while one in twenty (6%)

reported gains of over £50,000.

46%

5%

6%

8%

8%

7%

20%

26%

8%

7%

8%

5%

6%

42%

0%

1% to 19%

20% to 39%

40% to 59%

60% to 79%

80% to 99%

100%

Physical damage (583) Loss of trade (561)


23

The mean gain reported was £35,571, but this differed significantly by SIC, with

respondents in the production/construction industries reporting mean gains of £72,090

(mainly in manufacturing) and those in services £10,266.

Figure 3.5: Financial gains as a result of the floods (where experienced increased or new orders/sales as a result of the floods – valid responses only) Unweighted sample

base: 128

3.5 Actions taken as a result of the impact of storm and floods

Overall, 45% of respondents who had experienced a problem as a result of the storm

and floods said that they had taken one or more of a number of actions as a result of

their impact. This proportion varied significantly between those in the EA flood extent

areas (62%) and those in the non-EA flood extent areas (40%).

The most common action amongst those in the EA flood extent areas was to increase

promotion/marketing activity (20%), followed by applying for a grant of some sort

(15%). Within the EA flood extent areas, applying for a grant was the most common

action (30%), while increasing promotion/marketing activity was the most common

action within the non-EA flood extent areas (19%).

Also relatively significantly reported actions included reducing staff working hours at

the site (13%); seeking business advice (13%) and implementing new flood

defence/resilience measures to buildings or land (13%).

18%

24%

12%

12%

18%

9%

2%

2%

1%

1%

Under £1,000



Between £5,000 and £10,000

Between £10,000 and £25,000

Between £25,000 and £50,000

Between £50,000 and £100,000

Between £100,000 and £250,000

Between £250,000 and £500,000

More than £1 million


24

Figure 3.6: Actions taken as a result of the impact of storm and floods, by whether within or outside the EA flood extent areas (all experiencing any problem) Unweighted


3.5.1 Grant applications

Among the 15% who had applied for a grant of some sort (which comprises

approximately equal numbers of respondents in the EA flood extent areas and those

outside of it), half (50%) said they had applied for a business recovery grant from the

Cumbria Business Growth Hub/Cumbria Chamber of Commerce (equating to 7% of all

those who had been affected by the floods), although this figure rose to 73% of those

in the EA flood extent areas (equating to 22% of those affected by the floods in the EA

flood extent areas).

Nearly half (47%; 7% of all businesses affected) obtained business rate relief;

increasing to 61% (19% of all) in the EA flood extent areas.

Of those who had applied for a grant of some sort, a quarter (26%) said they had

applied for the £5,000 flood resilience grant (equating to 4% of all those affected by the

floods), rising to four in ten (39%) of those in the EA flood extent areas (equating to

11% of those affected by the floods in the EA flood extent areas).

This pattern was reversed in relation to the Farming Fund, where overall a quarter of

all those who had applied for a grant (39%, equating to 6% of all those affected) had

applied for such assistance, driven in large part by those that applied for a grant of

some sort in the non-EA flood extent areas (57%, compared with 19% of those in the

EA flood extent areas).

One in five of those who had applied for a grant of some sort had done so from

another source (20%, equating to 3% of all those affected).

30%

26%

25%

23%

20%

19%

16%

12%

10%

19%

10%

10%

4%

11%

3%

2%

Applied for a grant of some sort

Increased promotion/marketing activity

Implemented new flood defence/resiliencemeasures

Sought business advice

Obtained business rate relief

Reduced staff working hours

Applied for business rate revaluation

Moved to alternative premises

EA flood extent area (278) Non-EA flood extent area (752)


25

3.5.2 Sourcing business advice

Overall one in eight (13%) of those who had experienced a problem as a result of the

storm and floods sought business advice, and this varied significantly between those in

the EA flood extent areas and those outside (23% and 10% respectively).

Within this group the most common source of business advice was Cumbria Growth

Hub/Cumbria Chamber of Commerce, used by 31% of all those seeking such advice.

There was little difference in the sources used by those in the EA flood extent areas

and those outside, with the exception that the former were more likely to seek advice

from Cumbria Growth Hub/Cumbria Chamber of Commerce (48%, compared with

19%).

Figure 3.7: Source of business advice (all who sought business advice) Unweighted

sample base: 147

31%

20%

16%

9%

8%

7%

5%

4%

4%

3%

3%

2%

2%

1%

8%

4%

Cumbria Growth Hub/Cumbria Chamber ofCommerce

Bank/accountant/solicitor

National Farmers' Union

Other businesses

Local district council

Insurance company

Cumbria County Council

Marketing companies/cosultants

Trade group/association

Internally/via Head Office

Cumbria Community Foundation

Federation of Small Business

Local builders

Cumbria Tourism

Other

DK/prefer not to say


26

3.6 Trading circumstances

3.6.1 Current status of business

The majority of respondents in all affected businesses reported that they were

currently fully trading (87%), although this was somewhat lower among those in the EA

flood extent areas (82%, compared with 89% of those outside of the EA flood extent

areas), with a higher proportion reporting limited trading (16% cf. 11%). Very few

respondents reported that they had ceased trading temporarily (4 respondents in total).

A quarter of businesses whose premises flooded (25%) reported only limited trading at

the time of the survey.

Figure 3.8: Current state of business, by whether within or outside the EA flood extent areas (all experiencing any problem) Unweighted sample bases in parentheses

In cases where trading remained limited at the time of the survey, there was wide

variation in terms of when respondents expected their business to be fully running

again: while one in six (18%) expected this to be the case within the next month, one

in eight (13%) expected it to take over a year and a similar proportion (13%) expected

it to take between 6 months and a year. One business (in health services) expected to

close.

82%

16%

2%

89%

11%

<0.5%

Fully trading (business as usual)

Limited trading

Ceased trading temporarily

EA flood extent area (278) Non-EA flood extent area (752)


27

Figure 3.9: How long anticipated before business fully running (all with limited trading) Unweighted sample base: 148

The main reasons cited for not yet being back to full trading were the downturn in

trade/customers still being affected, the negative image of Cumbria as a result of the

floods and issues with infrastructure (road, rail etc.).

Figure 3.10: What has prevented business getting back to full trading (all with limited trading) Unweighted sample base: 148

18%

37%

10%

13%

13%

1%

9%

Within next month

Within next 2 to 3 months

Within next 4 to 6 months

Within 6 to 12 months

Longer than a year

Expect to close

Don't know

77%

61%

54%

36%

30%

30%

25%

23%

20%

19%

Downturn in trade/customers still affected

Negative image of Cumbria following the floods

Infrastructure issues

Buliding/repair work still going on

Property/furnishings/stock still drying out

Problems with funding repairs

Red tape/bureaucracy delaying necessary work

Problem finding trades people for buildingwork/repair

Suppliers still affected

Delays to or disputed insurance claims


28

Among respondents from businesses affected by the storms and flooding who were

fully trading at the time of survey (87% of all surveyed), two in five (40%) reported that

they had experienced a period of limited trading at some point following the storm and

flooding. So overall a third of all businesses (31%), whether in the EA flood extent

areas or outside, reported some limits to their business’ trading as a result of the storm

and flooding.

3.6.2 Mitigations

Where respondents had been able to avoid a period of limited trading they were asked

whether the ability to take action quickly to protect their property/stock or previous

preventative/resilience measures which reduced the impact this time were reasons

why their business had been able to trade as usual.

A third (36%) said that taking action quickly and a fifth (21%) that previous

preventative measures had been reasons why their trading had been unaffected.

Respondents within primary industries were significantly more likely than average to

cite taking quick action (58%) while also slightly more likely to have taken previous

preventative/resilience measures (30%). Those in the EA flood extent areas were

more likely to cite taking previous preventative/resilience measures than those in the

non-EA flood extent areas (35%, compared with 19%).

Respondents that had indicated that their business had seen limited trading for a

period as a result of the storm and floods (22%) were asked which of a number of

factors helped them to get back to full trading.

For most (81%) the impact was limited anyway and half (51%) reported that they were

able to act quickly to protect property/stock. One in five (22%) mentioned help from the

local community, while fewer (18%) considered that previous preventative/resilience

measures reduced the impact.


29

Figure 3.11: Factors that helped businesses get back to full trading (where experienced limited trading for a period) Unweighted sample base: 369

3.7 Perceptions of longer term impacts of the storm and flooding

The most likely longer term impact of the storm and flooding is considered to be fewer

visitors to the area (28%). This view is particularly common within the Lake District

National Park (38%) and South Lakeland (33%).

This leads into the second most commonly held view that the storm and flooding is

going to result in fewer customers for Cumbrian businesses (18%). One in eight

respondents expect that infrastructure repairs will take longer than currently planned

and/or will not be fully completed (13%).

81%

51%

22%

18%

14%

13%

9%

11%

3%

Impact was limited anyway

Able to take action quickly to protectproperty/stock

Local community helped

Previous preventative/resilience measuresreduced the impact

Insurance company helped

Landlord support

Support agencies/council helped

Something else

Nothing


30

Figure 3.12: Views on longer term impacts of the storm and flooding (all respondents) Unweighted sample base: 1486 (mentions 3% or over)

28%

18%

13%

7%

6%

6%

6%

6%

6%

5%

4%

4%

4%

3%

3%

3%

3%

3%

3%

14%

11%

Fewer visitors to the area

Fewer customers for Cumbrian businesses

Infrastructure repairs will take longer than currentlyplanned/will not be fully completed

More investment in infrastructure

Less investment in business sites in Cumbria

Businesses will move out of Cumbria

Cost of dealing with flooding will reduce spendingelsewhere in the County

Increase in insurance premiums/difficulty in gettinginsurance cover

Limited accessibility to the area/infrastructure(travel issues)

Fewer businesses moving into Cumbria

Greater levels of engagement with businesssupport agencies and councils

Businesses will close/cease trading

Reduced property values/It will be difficult to sellproperties

Greater levels of collaboration between businesses

Concentration of vacant properties (creating nogo/blight areas)

Fewer people moving into the area for work

Younger people more likely to move out of thearea

Fear of flooding again

General financial impact/loss of revenue

Other

Nothing


31

3.8 Views on the importance of a positive PR campaign

Respondents’ reactions to the observation that media reports regarding the damage

done to the area by the storm and flooding may have presented the public with a

negative picture of Cumbria as a place to visit were gauged. They were asked how

important they considered the launch of a positive PR and advertising campaign to

counter negative PR and help businesses that rely on or benefit at all from tourism.

There was almost universal support for this, with over nine in ten (92%) regarding it as

important, including 80% who viewed it as essential/very important and this varied little

by geography, sector and business size, although businesses in the accommodation

and food services sector and the visitor economy sub-sector are particularly likely to

consider this activity essential/very important (90% and 89% respectively).

Figure 3.13: Views on importance of positive PR and advertising campaign (all respondents) Unweighted sample base: 1486

3.9 Concerns in the near future

All respondents were asked how concerned they were about a number of issues

occurring in the near future.

The results were fairly consistent across all three possible risks – the risk of storms

and flooding, the level of future insurance premiums and revisions to insurance policy

terms and conditions – with views relatively evenly split between those were more

concerned and those who were less concerned.

Respondents are most likely to be concerned about the risks of further storms and

flooding (52% concerned; including 24% very concerned) and least likely to be

concerned about revisions to terms and conditions of insurance policies (45%; 20%

very concerned).

80%

12%

3%

3%

1%

Essential/very important

Quite important

Not very important

Not at all important

Unsure


32

Figure 3.14: Extent to which businesses are concerned about specified eventualities (all respondents) Unweighted sample base: 1486

As one might expect businesses within the EA flood extent areas are more likely to be

concerned about each of the possibilities than those outside.

Around three-quarters of businesses in the EA flood extent areas are concerned about

the risk of storms and flooding in the future, compared with just under half of those

located outside of these areas (73%, compared with 48%). They are less likely to be

concerned about the level of future insurance premiums but still significantly more

likely than businesses based outside the flood extent area to be (68%, compared with

44%). Similarly, two-thirds of businesses in the EA flood extent areas are concerned

about revisions to insurance policy terms and conditions in the future, compared with

far fewer businesses outside of the flood areas (66%, compared with 40%).

Figure 3.15: Extent to which businesses are concerned about specified eventualities (respondents in the EA flood extent areas) Unweighted sample base: 311

25%

27%

30%

22%

22%

22%

29%

28%

25%

24%

20%

20%

Risk of storms and flooding

The level of future insurance premiums

The revisions of any terms and conditions ofinsurance policies, including the level of excess

payable

Not at all concerned Not very concerned Quite concerned Very concerned

14%

14%

18%

13%

16%

15%

34%

33%

31%

39%

35%

34%

Risk of storms and flooding

The level of future insurance premiums

The revisions of any terms and conditions ofinsurance policies, including the level of excess

payable

Not at all concerned Not very concerned Quite concerned Very concerned

Trading and Investment

33

4 Trading and Investment

4.1 Key points

The majority of decision-making within Cumbria’s businesses is made at the Cumbrian

site. This is most likely to be the case with regard to recruitment (92% of all

businesses; 65% of multi-site businesses) and least likely to be the case with regard to

investment (86%; 41% of multi-site businesses).

Private sector businesses continue to be largely focused on the local market including

visitors to Cumbria. There has been little change in this since 2013. Around three-

quarters of businesses (73%) sell products or services to domestic/individual

customers; around two-fifths (41%) to tourists visiting Cumbria; two-thirds (65%) to

private sector businesses; a third to public sector organisations (35%) and one in six

(17%) to organisations within the nuclear industry.

In terms of geographic markets, there is a trend away from concentration on the local

market and a move towards supplying markets further afield. One in three private

sector businesses (32%) report all their sales in Cumbria now, compared with nearly

half (46%) five years ago. On average, 70% of sales, by value, are made within

Cumbria.

Just over one in five private sector businesses in Cumbria exports (22%); 15% of all

businesses reported sales within the EU; 11% outside the EU.

Almost half of private sector businesses in Cumbria report rising staff costs in the last

12 months (46%). A third report rising energy and raw material prices (35% and 34%

respectively). Fewer, however, report increasing output and domestic orders (24%

and 22% respectively). As one would expect given the greater prevalence of rising

costs compared to rising output and orders, businesses are more likely to have

reported lower than higher profit margins in the last 12 months (34%, compared with

17%).

There is more likely to have been an increase in investment than a decrease in the last

12 months (20% versus 13%).

Businesses are optimistic about the next 12 months; with a third anticipating an

increase in domestic orders (36%) and profit margins (33%). However, higher

proportions anticipate increasing staff costs (50%); energy prices (39%) and raw

material prices (37%).

In terms of significant barriers to business’ performance and efficiency, the economy,

regulations, access to or speed of broadband, taxation, VAT and cash flow featured

strongly and above local issues such as planning, the transport infrastructure and skills

issues. Around a third of private sector businesses cited issues relating to the local

road network and road access, the way the local planning and development control

system operates, the availability of people able to do the job, availability of affordable

housing in the area and the availability of suitable bus services as significant barriers

to performance and efficiency.


34

The issues relating to local infrastructure were more likely to be mentioned as barriers

to business performance and efficiency by businesses that have experienced negative

impacts from the storm and flooding.

Businesses identified as ‘Growers’ were more likely to feel held back by a lack of

availability of people able to do the job.

4.2 Location of key decision-making

Respondents in businesses and organisations with more than one site were asked

where key decisions affecting the business are made. Amongst these multi-site

businesses and organisations, recruitment decisions are most likely to be made at

their site (65%), rather than at another site further afield. They are least likely to make

investment decisions (41%) or decisions about business or organisation strategy

(44%) at their site. Around two-fifths of multi-site businesses and organisations report

investment and strategy decisions being made outside of Cumbria and elsewhere in

the UK (39% and 40% respectively). These findings echo those of 2013.

Figure 4.1: Location of key decision-making (all multi-site businesses) Unweighted

sample base = 611 * denotes less than 0.5%

When these figures are recalculated across the whole sample – that is, including

single site businesses or organisations in which decisions are necessarily in Cumbria,

there is a high level of autonomy within Cumbria, with the vast majority of businesses

and organisations making decisions in key areas at that site. Decisions on recruitment

and training are particularly likely to be made locally (see next figure).

65%

59%

53%

45%

44%

41%

15%

13%

14%

15%

16%

16%

16%

25%

31%

37%

37%

38%

*%

*%

1%

1%

3%

1%

Recruitment

Training

Purchasing

Marketing

Business or organisation strategy

Investment

At this site Elsewhere in Cumbria

Elsewhere in the UK Elsewhere in the rest of the world


35

Figure 4.2: Location of key decision-making (all respondents) Unweighted sample base

= 2,186 * denotes less than 0.5%

4.3 Markets

4.3.1 Customer types

When asked about the type of customers to whom they sell or provide services, three-

quarters of private sector businesses indicated that their business sells or provides

services to domestic/individual customers (73%), with over two in five of all private

sector businesses (41%) selling or providing services to tourists visiting Cumbria, an

uplift since 2013 (36%).

There has been a slight increase in the proportion of private sector organisations

selling or providing services to organisations in the nuclear industry (from 14% to

17%), while the proportion selling or providing services to public sector organisations

has remained at a similar level to 2013 (35% this year, compares with 34% in 2013).

Two-thirds (65%) reported selling or providing services to other private sector

businesses, in line with 2013.

In terms of their most important customers, domestic/individual customers remain the

most important customer group (in terms of sales value) for around half of private

sector businesses (46%), in line with 2013 (47%). The proportion remains significantly

higher in Barrow-in-Furness (70%) than elsewhere and also remains higher than

average in a number of sectors, including ‘other services’ (87%) and health services

(79%).

92%

91%

89%

87%

87%

86%

3%

3%

3%

4%

3%

4%

4%

6%

7%

8%

8%

9%

*%

*%

*%

1%

*%

*%

Recruitment

Training

Purchasing


Marketing

Investment

At this site Elsewhere in Cumbria

Elsewhere in the UK Elsewhere in the rest of the world


36

One in three businesses (33%) cited other private sector businesses as their main

customer group, similar to 2013 (35%). This increases to 42% of businesses in

Carlisle.

Tourists visiting Cumbria have grown in importance since 2013, with one in eight

private sector businesses now citing them as their main customer group (12%),

compared with one in twenty in 2013 (7%). There has been an increase in the extent

to which businesses in the accommodation and food services sector rely on this

customer group (from 42% in 2013 to 53% this year).

Markets served and the extent to which they are considered businesses’ main markets

are summarised in the table below.

Table 4.3: Types of customer that businesses sell or provide services to (all private sector businesses); percentages Figures in bold are significantly greater than the previous year or

against the average for this year minus the sub group tested * denotes less than 0.5% ~caution: low

sample base

Un

we

igh

ted

sa

mp

le

ba

ses

Domestic/ individual

consumers

Tourists visiting Cumbria

Public sector organisations

Organisations in the nuclear

industry

Other private sector

businesses

Any Main Any Main Any Main Any Main Any Main

2015 – All 1,742 73 46 41 12 35 5 17 3 65 29

2013 – All 1,560 74 47 36 7 34 5 14 1 67 35

2011 – All 672 78 55 42 9 32 5 12 2 54 23

Local authority district

Allerdale 352 73 44 43 16 36 5 20 3 63 29

Barrow-in-Furness 104 88 70 40 0 51 7 36 4 60 18

Carlisle 335 66 44 31 4 37 5 11 * 76 42

Copeland 149 69 43 39 4 38 5 32 9 69 36

Eden 257 70 44 41 11 29 6 9 * 65 35

South Lakeland 545 77 42 46 20 31 4 11 * 60 31

Number of employees at that site

0 employees 351 76 53 32 9 31 4 13 2 64 30

1-9 employees 956 70 42 40 12 33 5 15 2 65 36

10-24 employees 284 85 44 64 18 53 7 30 4 66 25

25+ employees 151 69 34 49 14 55 13 34 2 73 34

Industry sector

Primary 168 40 27 17 6 12 3 5 0 73 61

Manufacturing 134 71 38 39 5 43 6 22 3 69 45

Construction 131 91 67 19 2 41 5 12 1 64 21

Wholesale and retail 438 92 66 74 14 39 3 17 * 54 14


37

Un

we

igh

ted

sa

mp

le

ba

ses

Domestic/ individual

consumers


Public sector organisations

Organisations in the nuclear

industry

Other private sector

businesses

Any Main Any Main Any Main Any Main Any Main

Accommodation and food services

293 93 34 96 53 38 2 26 3 45 4

Transport and communication

105 68 35 35 4 65 16 29 1 87 39

Financial intermediation~

20 91 62 15 0 12 3 13 5 78 31

Business services 102 77 44 29 9 3 6 20 4 71 35

Professional, scientific and technical services

160 63 34 22 5 45 6 26 7 81 45

Education~ 31 61 52 26 5 55 23 9 0 49 17

Health services 65 95 79 33 1 40 10 7 0 23 6

Arts and recreation~ 43 98 42 74 32 49 8 12 0 48 12

Other services 52 98 87 59 2 438 1 11 0 33 8

Younger businesses, established in the last 4 years, are more likely to serve

domestic/individual customers and tourists visiting Cumbria than those established for

5 or more years (91% serve domestic/individual customers cf. 71% of older

businesses; 68% serve tourists cf. 38%).

4.3.2 Customer location

Private sector businesses were asked to estimate the proportion of their sales made

within specified geographical areas. The trend would appear to be towards less

reliance on the Cumbria market and an expansion in the geographical areas served.

One in three private sector businesses (32%) report that all their sales are made in

Cumbria compared with 39% in 2013, 46% in 2011 and 53% in 2010, while, for the first

time since 2010, a higher proportion estimate that more than half but, crucially, less

than all sales are within Cumbria; 39% this year, compared with 24% in 2010, 30% in

2011 and 32% in 2013). Overall, just over two-thirds of private sector businesses

estimate that more than half their sales are made in Cumbria (69%); with 59% of all

estimating that more than three-quarters of their sales in the county. A year on year

comparison, highlights a decline in dependence on the sales within Cumbria; the

proportion that estimated more than half their sales were in Cumbria was slightly

higher in 2013 (71%) and significantly higher in 2011 (76%) and 2010 (77%).

Over half (52%) reported some sales outside of Cumbria but still within the North West

region, a significant uplift on the 43% who did so in 2013, and a slightly lower

proportion report sales outside the North West region but within the UK (43%), again

an increase on the 39% who did so in 2013, continuing the upward trend since 2011 in

both instances.


38

Only a minority of respondents report sales outside the UK and the proportion has

remained stable: 15% reported sales outside the UK within the EU (compared with

14% in 2013) and 11% outside the EU (compared with 13% in 2013).

Only 4% of respondents reported having no sales within Cumbria and this proportion

has also remained stable; being similar to the 2013 figure. The next figure shows the

proportion of respondents’ sales made within Cumbria by district and sector.

Figure 4.4: Proportion of sales estimated to be within Cumbria by district and sector (private sector businesses) Percentages. Unweighted sample bases in parentheses

4%

5%

1%

3%

1%

5%

6%

6%

6%

1%

1%

4%

8%

6%

5%

9%

2%

9%

6%

2%

10%

7%

13%

10%

8%

17%

1%

6%

19%

10%

5%

3%

13%

18%

7%

2%

4%

1%

5%

4%

7%

3%

7%

5%

6%

2%

3%

8%

6%

5%

4%

4%

7%

4%

9%

7%

6%

12%

8%

12%

9%

10%

8%

7%

10%

13%

10%

6%

10%

8%

3%

9%

7%

9%

37%

32%

41%

43%

30%

36%

39%

24%

35%

41%

45%

24%

49%

66%

33%

52%

19%

37%

37%

40%

32%

43%

38%

25%

42%

28%

26%

41%

22%

47%

29%

28%

16%

18%

43%

15%

35%

52%

33%

43%

All businesses (1742)

Allerdale (352)

Barrow in Furness (104)

Carlisle (335)

Copeland (149)

Eden (257)

South Lakeland (545)

Primary (exc. Manuf and Construct) (168)

Manufacturing (134)

Construction (131)

Wholesale and Retail distribution (438)

Accommodation and Food (293)

Transport and Communications (105)

Financial intermediation (20)

Business services (102)

Prof. Scientific, Tech. services (160)

Education (31)

Health services (65)

Arts, Recreation (43)

Other services (52)

0% 1-10% 11-25% 26-50% 51-99% 100%


39

The average proportion of sales made within geographic locations both in Cumbria

and beyond was calculated by using the mid-point of the different band options. This

calculation provides a broad indication of where there is greater reliance on local

markets and where there is more of a focus further afield. The share of sales across

the geographic markets for different districts and sectors is summarised in the chart

that follows. The local market continues to be of prime importance to Cumbria

businesses:

Figure 4.5: Estimated mean share of sales (percentages) within various geographic markets, by district and sector (private sector businesses where provided an estimate) percentages Unweighted sample bases vary but do not exceed those in parentheses

* denotes less than 0.5%

70

77

80

68

75

66

64

69

57

83

75

57

61

75

75

64

59

89

74

83

13

11

7

12

13

15

17

19

12

9

11

18

13

13

10

12

15

5

11

7

12

9

7

15

10

16

13

11

22

5

10

18

19

9

9

17

14

3

12

5

2

2

1

2

2

1

3

2

4

*

2

4

2

*

1

3

11

1

1

*

1

1

1

2

1

1

2

*

5

*

2

3

3

*

1

1

5

*

3

1

All private sector businesses (1742)

Allerdale (352)


Carlisle (335)

Copeland (149)

Eden (257)



Manufacturing (134)

Construction (131)







Education (31)



Other services (52)

Within Cumbria Within the North West region

Outside the North West but still in the UK Outside the UK but within the EU

Outside of the EU


40

4.4 Business trends

4.4.1 Trends in the last 12 months

Respondents in private sector businesses were asked about trends in their businesses

in the last 12 months with regard to orders, employment, output, prices, profit margins,

and cash flow. (It is important to take into account that the survey was taking place in

the aftermath of the 2015 floods which will have influenced results for some

respondents and also that the 12 month period includes two Easter periods which may

have particularly influenced responses from businesses in the tourism sector.)

Observed trends are summarised in the figure which follows:

Figure 4.6: Business trends in the last 12 months (all private sector respondents providing a valid response) Maximum unweighted sample bases = 1742 Staff costs; maximum

unweighted sample base = 1395

Significant proportions of respondents report rising staff3 (46%), energy (35%) and raw

material (34%) costs, while around a quarter - considerably fewer - report increased

output (24%), prices (22%) and domestic orders (22%) and fewer still report increasing

investment (20%). As in 2013, higher proportions of respondents report a decline than

an increase in profit margins (34% and 17% respectively) and cash in the business

(15% and 25% respectively).

The question regarding export trends was only applicable to around quarter of all

private sector businesses (22%), as not all businesses export. Of these, just 7%

3 Staff costs: This was only asked of businesses with employees.

46%

35%

34%

24%

22%

22%

20%

17%

15%

44%

40%

34%

51%

52%

59%

46%

43%

50%

5%

15%

11%

15%

16%

16%

13%

34%

25%

Staff costs

Energy prices

Raw material prices

Output

Domestic orders

Prices charged to customers

Investment

Profit margins

Cash in the business

Higher Same Lower


41

report a recent upward trend in export orders, with a similar proportion (8%) reporting a

downward trend.

When we examine trends in key areas since 2009 (where we have comparable data)

we can see that there has been decline in the extent to which employers report

increases in most areas in the last 12 months except for staff costs where a higher

proportion of employers this year report an increase, and with regard to cash in the

business, where there has been no change since 2013.

Figure 4.7: Businesses reporting higher trends in the last 12 months (all private sector respondents providing a valid response)

When examining data over time with regard to downward trends i.e. lower levels of

staff costs, output, orders, prices, profit margins and cash flow, there has been little

change since 2013. The greatest movement has been in terms of prices charged to

customers, where a higher proportion of businesses report lower levels than in 2013.

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

2009 2010 2011 2013 2016

Staff costs

Output

Domestic orders

Prices charged tocustomers

Profit margins



42

Figure 4.8: Businesses reporting lower trends in the last 12 months (all private sector respondents providing a valid response) Maximum unweighted sample bases = 1560

The following table sets out business trends data across the districts, industry sectors,

area types and different sizes of business in more detail:

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

2009 2010 2011 2013 2016

Staff costs

Output

Domestic orders


Profit margins



43

Table 4.9: Business trends in the last 12 months (all private sector businesses); percentages Figures in bold are significantly greater than average minus the sub group tested *denotes

less than 0.5% ~caution: low sample base

Unw

eig

hte

d s

am

ple

bases

Domestic orders

Output Prices

charged

Profit margins

Cash flow

Energy prices

Raw material prices

Un

weig

hte

d s

am

ple

b

ases

: wh

ere

hav

e

em

plo

yee

s

Staff costs

Hig

he

r

Lo

we

r

Hig

he

r

Lo

we

r

Hig

he

r

Lo

we

r

Hig

he

r

Lo

we

r

Hig

he

r

Lo

we

r

Hig

he

r

Lo

we

r

Hig

he

r

Lo

we

r

Hig

he

r

Lo

we

r

Total 2015

1,742 22 16 24 15 22 16 17 34 15 25 35 15 34 11 1395 46 5

Total 2013

1,560 24 17 27 16 26 12 18 34 15 25 68 3 59 19 1195 42 6

Total 2011

672 22 34 25 26 43 10 14 43 47 31 82 n/a 77 n/a 512 36 7

Total 2010

1,396 19 25 23 21 29 10 19 34 16 25

n/a

1344 30 7

Total 2009

1,686 17 24 24 30 27 15 19 37 19 31 1551 33 12

District

Allerdale 352 19 15 23 15 22 23 15 37 12 30 34 18 37 15 280 38 8

Barrow-in-Furness

104 27 23 25 17 36 8 22 40 17 27 39 9 43 7 83 63 1

Carlisle 335 19 15 21 15 14 18 14 32 15 23 34 13 32 13 268 49 5

Copeland 149 18 18 16 15 17 17 16 39 11 30 32 14 28 12 119 48 3

Eden 257 22 17 27 15 23 17 21 35 19 22 41 11 36 13 196 43 7

South Lakeland

545 26 13 28 13 25 12 17 29 18 22 34 18 34 7 449 46 5

Location type

Urban 627 28 19 28 12 27 8 19 28 20 19 39 8 39 4 520 55 6

Rural 1115 14 16 22 16 19 20 16 37 14 28 33 18 32 15 875 42 5


44

Unw

eig

hte

d s

am

ple

bases

Domestic orders

Output Prices

charged

Profit margins

Cash flow

Energy prices

Raw material prices

Un

weig

hte

d s

am

ple

ba

ses

:

wh

ere

hav

e e

mp

loy

ee

s

Staff costs

Hig

he

r

Lo

we

r

Hig

he

r

Lo

we

r

Hig

he

r

Lo

we

r

Hig

he

r

Lo

we

r

Hig

he

r

Lo

we

r

Hig

he

r

Lo

we

r

Hig

he

r

Lo

we

r

Hig

he

r

Lo

we

r

Industry sector

Primary 168 5 17 16 15 7 50 7 59 3 43 28 25 26 33 133 25 5

Manufacturing 134 34 27 35 21 22 11 18 36 20 27 44 12 54 9 104 69 8

Construction 131 29 10 24 13 25 4 22 21 22 17 40 12 59 5 93 48 2

Wholesale and retail

438 26 19 24 18 22 13 16 31 13 24 37 10 33 6 390 55 6


293 22 15 22 17 40 4 18 34 17 27 49 12 52 2 268 55 6


105 18 23 27 15 24 5 18 30 22 22 28 21 22 12 79 53 6

Financial intermediation

20 51 9 58 0 29 5 31 22 30 12 17 21 6 5 14 48 0

Business services

102 27 9 28 12 21 5 21 20 23 16 25 14 33 6 70 48 8


160 29 13 31 11 25 6 24 22 21 12 35 10 20 3 109 47 4

Education 31 12 13 13 19 38 5 18 31 21 22 37 5 20 5 22 60 5

Health services 65 18 5 12 12 28 0 22 29 16 13 39 6 31 0 54 53 0

Arts and recreation

43 18 24 12 19 25 2 22 27 18 36 46 8 37 3 31 62 5

Other services 52 29 19 28 11 33 4 18 21 8 24 38 9 37 4 28 28 11


45

Unw

eig

hte

d s

am

ple

bases

Domestic orders

Output Prices

charged

Profit margins

Cash flow

Energy prices

Raw material prices

Un

weig

hte

d s

am

ple

ba

ses

:

wh

ere

hav

e e

mp

loy

ee

s

Staff costs

Hig

he

r

Lo

we

r

Hig

he

r

Lo

we

r

Hig

he

r

Lo

we

r

Hig

he

r

Lo

we

r

Hig

he

r

Lo

we

r

Hig

he

r

Lo

we

r

Hig

he

r

Lo

we

r

Hig

he

r

Lo

we

r

Business size

No employees

347 21 16 23 17 21 9 18 24 18 22 31 15 31 8

Any employees

1,395 22 15 25 14 22 19 17 38 14 27 37 14 36 13 1,395 46 5

1-9 employees

960 20 16 23 14 21 22 16 39 13 28 37 15 36 14 960 39 6

10-24 employees

284 28 14 27 15 28 10 20 36 19 24 41 12 40 9 284 71 4

25-99 employees

130 31 14 34 12 25 17 17 36 18 18 38 12 35 14 130 70 1

100+ employee

21 32 16 41 0 47 6 23 25 25 7 36 27 33 21 21 91 0

Investment trends were covered for the first time in 2013 and, as there are only two

years to compare and it is an intentional activity that points directly to growth, we are

examining trends in investment independently of other activities.

As in 2013, a higher proportion of private sector businesses have increased

investment levels in the last 12 months than reduced them (20%, compared with 13%).

The extent to which businesses have increased investment in the last 12 months

varies little by geography, although businesses in the designated flood area are

significantly more likely than those outside of it to report higher levels of investment in

the last year (26% cf. 19%). This may have been driven by activities undertaken to

recover from flood damage.

Similarly to 2013, the propensity to have increased levels of investment during this

period increases with business size from 18% of those with fewer than 10 employees

to 45% of those with 100+ employees.

‘Growers’, a group consisting of businesses that have reported employment or

turnover growth at 5% or more in the last 12 months, are significantly more likely than

average to report increasing investment in the last 12 months (34%; 37% of ‘High

Growers’).

Furthermore, younger businesses; those established for less than 4 years, are more

likely to report increased levels of investment over the last year than more established

businesses (32%, compared with 19%).


46

Figure 4.10: Investment trends in the last 12 months, by district, business size, age and growth (all private sector respondents) Unweighted sample bases in parentheses

A review of reported investment activity by industry sector highlights a greater than

average propensity to have invested at higher levels within manufacturing (33%) and

the accommodation and food services sector (29%) and greater than average

propensity to have invested at lower levels within primary industries (26%) and the arts

and recreation sector (25%). Within LEP priority sectors, there has been a significantly

higher propensity to increase investment within specialist manufacturing (35%) and the

visitor economy (27%).

20%

20%

21%

20%

21%

22%

20%

16%

20%

28%

36%

45%

32%

19%

34%

15%

17%

13%

18%

6%

15%

13%

15%

10%

14%

14%

13%

8%

9%

14%

3%

10%

32%

All private sector businesses (1742)

Allerdale (352)


Carlisle (335)

Copeland (149)

Eden (257)


No employees (347)

1-9 employees (960)

10-24 employees (284)


100+ employees (21)

Young (<4 yrs) (183)

Established (5+ yrs) (1559)

Growers (508)

Stable (839)

Shrinkers (391)

Higher Lower


47

Figure 4.11: Investment trends in the last 12 months, by industry sector, including priority and underpinning sectors4 (all private sector respondents) Unweighted sample

bases in parentheses

4 See appendix for more information

17%

33%

14%

23%

29%

18%

32%

22%

18%

6%

10%

25%

19%

35%

38%

27%

14%

15%

20%

23%

38%

26%

12%

9%

9%

13%

17%

4%

5%

9%

9%

4%

25%

3%

10%

10%

15%

9%

18%

14%

3%

10%

Primary industries (168)

Manufacturing (134)

Construction (131)

Wholesale & Retail (438)

Accommodation and food services (293)

Transport and communications (105)

Financial intermediation. (20)


Professional, science and technical services (160)

Education (31)


Arts and recreation (43)

Other services (52)

Specialist Manufacturing (98)

Food and Drink (24)

Visitor economy (343)

Construction (131)

Digital Media and Creative (77)

Logistics and transport services (62)


Food and drink (24)

Higher Lower


48

4.4.2 Anticipated trends in the next 12 months

Respondents representing private sector businesses were then asked about their

expectations for the next 12 months.

There is considerable optimism with around a third of respondents anticipating higher

levels of domestic orders (34%) and profit margins (34%) in the next 12 months.

Slightly fewer (29%) expect cash in the business to increase. In the cases of both

profit margins and cash in the business, respondents are more optimistic than one

might expect given that only around one in six or seven reported increases in profit

margins and cash in the business in the last 12 months.

Three in ten (30%) expects prices charged to customers to increase, which is lower

than the figure reported in 2013 (35%). The proportion anticipating an increase in

investment levels is similar to that reported in 2013 (25%, compared with 26%). The

proportion of businesses anticipating increases in energy and raw material prices in

the next 12 months is similar to those reporting increases in the last 12 months

(energy prices, 39%; raw material prices, 37%).

Half of businesses with employees (50%) anticipate an increase in staff costs. This is

a higher proportion than in 2013 (43%).

Figure 4.12: Expected business trends in the next 12 months (all private sector respondents) Unweighted sample base = 1742 Staff costs; unweighted sample base = 1395

The following tables set out anticipated business trends across the districts, industry

sectors, area types and different sizes of business, in more detail.

50%

39%

37%

36%

33%

30%

29%

25%

42%

40%

35%

42%

43%

56%

47%

46%

3%

10%

7%

6%

19%

7%

14%

11%

Staff costs

Energy prices

Raw material prices

Domestic orders

Profit margins



Investment

Higher Same Lower


49

Table 4.13: Expected business trends in the next 12 months (all private sector respondents) percentages Figures in bold are significantly greater than against the previous year or

against the average this year minus the sub group tested *denotes less than 0.5% ~caution: low sample base

Unw

eig

hte

d s

am

ple

bases

Domestic orders

Invest-ment

Prices charged

Profit margins

Cash flow

Energy prices

Raw material prices

Un

weig

hte

d s

am

ple

ba

ses

: wh

ere

hav

e

em

plo

yee

s

Staff costs

Hig

he

r

Lo

we

r

Hig

he

r

Lo

we

r

Hig

he

r

Lo

we

r

Hig

he

r

Lo

we

r

Hig

he

r

Lo

we

r

Hig

he

r

Lo

we

r

Hig

he

r

Lo

we

r

Hig

he

r

Lo

we

r

Total 2015

1,742 34 9 25 11 30 7 33 19 29 14 39 10 37 7 1395 50 3

Total 2013

1,560 36 6 26 6 35 3 35 12 31 10 65 2 50 7 1195 43 2

Total 2011

672 22 20

n/a

41 4 18 26 17 19 82 n/a 74 n/a 512 38 2

Total 2010

1,396 29 15 39 5 30 18 26 14

n/a

1344 32 4

Total 2009

1,686 25 10 25 5 26 17 26 15 1551 32 5

District

Allerdale 352 30 11 24 15 34 7 34 23 29 18 39 11 40 8 280 52 2

Barrow-in-Furness

104 40 8 23 7 22 5 37 18 29 16 38 10 38 8 83 50 4

Carlisle 335 35 8 27 12 29 7 29 20 27 14 34 10 36 6 268 48 4

Copeland 149 29 10 27 13 24 8 31 22 27 17 37 10 34 7 119 50 1

Eden 257 35 10 30 10 32 8 37 19 30 13 41 6 37 6 196 41 3

South Lakeland

545 36 6 23 7 32 7 34 14 31 11 42 10 35 7 449 55 1

Location type

Urban 627 41 6 27 5 33 5 35 15 35 8 41 6 38 3 520 58 3

Rural 1,115 31 10 24 13 29 8 33 21 27 17 38 11 36 9 875 46 3

Unw

eig

hte

d s

am

ple

bases

Domestic orders

Invest-ment

Prices charged

Profit margins

Cash flow

Energy prices

Raw material prices

Un

weig

hte

d s

am

ple

ba

ses

: wh

ere

hav

e

em

plo

yee

s

Staff costs

Hig

he

r

Lo

we

r

Hig

he

r

Lo

we

r

Hig

he

r

Lo

we

r

Hig

he

r

Lo

we

r

Hig

he

r

Lo

we

r

Hig

he

r

Lo

we

r

Hig

he

r

Lo

we

r

Hig

he

r

Lo

we

r

Industry sector

Primary 168 12 13 18 26 22 18 24 37 15 32 33 19 32 18 133 29 4

Manufacturing 134 45 10 41 6 41 6 43 13 43 9 40 15 53 7 104 70 0

Construction 131 33 5 22 6 37 2 36 8 37 6 50 4 57 4 93 56 0

Wholesale and retail

438 48 5 29 6 24 9 34 17 36 10 39 8 33 5 390 60 4


50

Unw

eig

hte

d s

am

ple

bases

Domestic orders

Invest-ment

Prices charged

Profit margins

Cash flow

Energy prices

Raw material prices

Un

weig

hte

d s

am

ple

ba

ses

: wh

ere

hav

e

em

plo

yee

s Staff costs

Hig

he

r

Lo

we

r

Hig

he

r

Lo

we

r

Hig

he

r

Lo

we

r

Hig

he

r

Lo

we

r

Hig

he

r

Lo

we

r

Hig

he

r

Lo

we

r

Hig

he

r

Lo

we

r

Hig

he

r

Lo

we

r


293 39 9 30 9 44 3 39 19 31 14 50 9 51 3 268 60 2


105 37 12 27 11 31 1 28 14 23 11 34 9 24 5 79 52 1

Financial intermediation

20 40 6 11 6 27 0 49 9 52 0 24 0 16 0 14 54 0

Business services

102 40 4 24 9 22 2 37 14 34 12 39 5 35 7 70 53 2


160 39 11 27 3 34 3 34 13 26 8 35 4 23 2 109 45 2

Education 31 32 7 23 6 33 0 37 14 15 15 19 0 30 0 22 70 3

Health services 65 22 9 25 7 46 2 42 17 31 15 40 6 37 2 54 65 3

Arts and recreation

43 48 3 38 6 32 2 39 15 37 12 51 5 34 5 31 53 0

Other services 52 45 2 26 4 43 0 39 5 39 2 42 10 45 1 28 51 0

Unw

eig

hte

d s

am

ple

bases

Domestic orders

Investment Prices

charged

Profit margins

Cash flow

Energy prices

Raw material prices

Un

weig

hte

d s

am

ple

b

ases

: wh

ere

hav

e

em

plo

yee

s

Staff costs

Hig

he

r

Lo

we

r

Hig

he

r

Lo

we

r

Hig

he

r

Lo

we

r

Hig

he

r

Lo

we

r

Hig

he

r

Lo

we

r

Hig

he

r

Lo

we

r

Hig

he

r

Lo

we

r

Hig

he

r

Lo

we

r

Business size

No employees

347 30 11 22 8 26 5 32 12 27 11 38 8 30 5

Any employees

1395 36 8 27 12 32 8 34 22 30 16 40 10 40 8 1395 50 3

1-9 employees

960 34 8 25 13 32 8 33 22 29 17 38 10 39 8 960 45 3

10-24 employees

284 40 7 33 10 35 10 36 25 36 15 46 8 41 7 284 68 4

25-99 employees

130 46 6 39 8 33 8 35 19 28 10 42 10 40 6 130 72 0

100+ employee

21 56 10 54 2 35 6 45 14 50 2 47 14 38 6 21 69 0

Businesses in the sectors of wholesale and retail and manufacturing are most likely to

anticipate increases in orders and investment but also in staff costs, while businesses

in accommodation and food services are also more likely than average to anticipate an

increase in investment and staff costs, but not in orders. Businesses in


51

accommodation and food services and manufacturing are also more likely than

average to anticipate an increase in prices charged.

Businesses based in rural areas are more likely than those in urban areas to anticipate

downward trends in investment and cash in the business, but also more likely to

expect the cost of energy and raw materials to fall, which is a positive outlook for these

businesses compared with 2013.

Urban-based businesses are more optimistic in respect of orders and cash flow than

those in rural areas. They are, however, also more likely to expect an increase in staff

costs.

Given the extent to which businesses anticipate an increase in staff costs in the next

12 months, it is not surprising that businesses with employees are more likely than

average to expect a downturn in cash in the business. The level of optimism increases

with the size of the businesses but so too do expectations of increasing costs.

4.5 Business constraints

Respondents were asked to consider a list of potential barriers to their business’

performance and efficiency and to indicate which are significant for them.

The range of aspects that were presented to respondents encompassed both those

relating to the local area and infrastructure and wider ranging aspects of operating in

the UK, including national economic conditions, regulations and financial burdens such

as taxation and business rates.

This year the list was split into the differing subject areas of housing, planning and

premises; transport issues; skills and training and general issues. By asking

respondents to consider each set of aspects in turn, respondents were able to give

more careful and equal consideration to each.


52

Figure 4.14: Perceived significant barriers to business performance and efficiency – prompted, multiple response (all private sector respondents) Unweighted sample base =

1,742

When we compare those barriers that were included in previous surveys, there is an

increase in all local aspects since 2013, which may reflect the heightened focus that

these aspects were allowed when respondents were asked this question this year.

35%

31%

20%

13%

12%

38%

30%

28%

25%

18%

38%

22%

62%

52%

48%

46%

43%

34%

33%

28%

11%

7%

The way the local planning and development controlsystem operates

Availability of affordable housing in the local area

Availability of suitable alternative business premises

Not having suitable business premises at the moment

Availability of executive housing

Network and access relating to roads

Availability of suitable bus services

Availability of parking for customers, staff ordeliveries

Availability of suitable air linkages to Cumbria

Network and access relating to rail

Availability of people able to do the job

Availability of suitable training

The economy

Regulations

Access to or speed of broadband

Taxation, VAT, PAYE, National Insurance

Cashflow

Business rates

Pension reforms which require all employers to makeworkplace pension arrangements for their staff

Future increases in the minimum wage

Other

None of these


53

Conversely, and also perhaps reflecting the heightened focus on local aspects, several

general issues have declined as barriers this year compared with last. There has,

however, been a significant increase in the extent to which access to or speed of

broadband has been cited as a barrier (from 39% in 2013 to 48% this year).

Table 4.15: Perceived significant barriers to businesses’ performance and efficiency locally – prompted, multiple response (all private sector respondents); percentages

Total

2015/6 Total 2013

Total 2011

Total 2010~

Total 2009~

The local road network and road access 38 26 35 31 30

The way the local planning and development control system operates

35 29 34 29 24

The availability of suitable bus services 30 18 25 21 21

The availability of parking for customers, staff or deliveries

28 24 29 28 32

The availability of suitable air linkages to Cumbria 25 17 17 19 17

The availability of suitable training 22 15 9 10 16

The availability of suitable alternative business premises

20 15 16 15 15

The rail network and rail access 18 12 11 12 14

The availability of executive housing 12 10 6 6 7

The economy 62 66

n/a

Regulations 52 53

Access to or speed of broadband 48 39

Taxation, VAT, PAYE, National Insurance 46 49

Cashflow 43 48

Business rates 34 32

Unweighted Bases 1,742 1,560 672 1,731 2,020

Another likely reason for the increase in the propensity to cite local factors, particularly

those relating to transport and sites, as barriers to businesses’ performance and

efficiency is the impact that the flooding experienced in December 2015 has had on

these issues.

Businesses that suffered flooding to their premises are more likely than those that

have not to cite issues relating to road infrastructure and premises as constraints to

their performance and efficiency, but also more likely to cite general issues as barriers.

This is also true of businesses suffering other negative impacts from the flooding. It is

likely to reflect the extent to which the crisis has placed them in a more vulnerable

position all round.


54

Table 4.16: Perceived significant barriers to business performance and efficiency, by experience of flooding (all private sector respondents); percentages Figures in bold are

significantly greater than average minus the sub group tested

Total

Pre

mis

es

floo

ded

No

t floo

ded

An

y n

eg

ativ

e

imp

act

No

neg

ativ

e

imp

act

No

imp

act


35 44 33 38 27 24

Availability of affordable housing in the local area 31 37 31 36 22 22

Availability of suitable alternative business premises 20 29 18 23 14 14

Not having suitable business premises at the moment 13 19 12 16 9 9

Availability of executive housing 12 15 13 14 12 11

Network and access relating to roads 38 54 37 48 23 23

Availability of suitable bus services 30 34 27 34 16 18

Availability of parking for customers, staff or deliveries 28 38 27 33 19 21

Availability of suitable air linkages to Cumbria 25 28 25 28 19 19

Network and access relating to rail 18 23 17 20 13 13

Availability of people able to do the job 38 41 36 41 28 26

Availability of suitable training 22 22 21 23 18 17

The economy 62 70 62 70 49 49

Regulations 52 65 50 58 40 39

Access to or speed of broadband 48 53 47 52 39 41

Taxation, VAT, PAYE, National Insurance 46 56 44 51 36 35

Cash flow 43 55 41 49 31 31

Business rates 34 46 33 39 25 26

Pension reforms which require all employers to make workplace pension arrangements for their staff

33 45 32 38 24 22

Future increases in the minimum wage 28 39 26 32 18 19

Other 11 12 7 9 4 4

None of these 7 2 9 4 16 15

Unweighted bases 1742 176 1018 848 342 293

Most aspects are more likely to be perceived as barriers by businesses with

employees than by those without employees. As one would expect, this is particularly

the case with regard to issues relating to finding people able to do the job, pension

reforms and the possibility of future increases in the minimum wage. However,

businesses with employees are also particularly likely to cite business rates and

regulations.


55

When we examine the barriers specified by businesses that have identified themselves

as ‘Growers5’, compared with those that self-categorise as ‘Shrinkers6’, it highlights the

extent to which Growers may be hindered by the lack of availability of people able to

do the job (44%, compared with 34% of those that report minimal if any change), but

the proportion of Shrinkers citing this as a barrier is similar (42%), which suggests that

this issue may also be hindering growth.

Those reporting a decline in employment and/or turnover i.e. Shrinkers, are

significantly more likely than average to report barriers relating to the economy,

regulations, taxation and cashflow.

Both Growers and Shrinkers are more likely than average to identify barriers than

businesses that report no change in employment or turnover. Barriers are more

apparent when businesses are looking to expand and more likely to be identified by

businesses that are contracting.

Table 4.17: Perceived significant barriers to business performance and efficiency, by whether have employees and trends in growth (all private sector respondents); percentages Figures in bold are significantly greater than average minus the sub group tested

Total

No

em

plo

yee

s

An

y

em

plo

yee

s

Gro

wers

Sta

ble

Sh

rink

ers


35 31 36 31 34 41

Availability of affordable housing in the local area 31 26 33 29 32 30

Availability of suitable alternative business premises 20 18 22 29 17 18

Not having suitable business premises at the moment 13 13 14 15 12 15

Availability of executive housing 12 12 12 11 13 12

Network and access relating to roads 38 33 40 37 35 44

Availability of suitable bus services 30 27 31 31 29 30

Availability of parking for customers, staff or deliveries 28 25 30 31 27 28

Availability of suitable air linkages to Cumbria 25 23 26 27 23 25

Network and access relating to rail 18 17 18 21 16 19

Availability of people able to do the job 38 26 44 44 34 42

Availability of suitable training 22 21 23 22 23 22

The economy 62 57 65 58 58 77

5 Defined as having grown turnover and/or employment by 5% or more in the last 12 months

6 Defined as having reduced turnover and/or employment by 5% or more in the last 12 months


56

Total

No

em

plo

yee

s

An

y

em

plo

yee

s

Gro

wers

Sta

ble

Sh

rink

ers

Regulations 52 42 56 46 51 60

Access to or speed of broadband 48 46 49 51 46 50

Taxation, VAT, PAYE, National Insurance 46 40 48 45 43 52

Cashflow 43 40 44 38 36 61

Business rates 34 23 39 36 32 36


33 20 40 35 31 38

Future increases in the minimum wage 28 14 34 26 25 36

Other 11 11 11 12 7 16

None of these 7 11 6 4 11 3

Unweighted bases 1742 347 1395 508 839 391

Taking each barrier individually, the characteristics of businesses that are most likely

to cite them as such are highlighted in the table that follows:

Table 4.18: Perceived significant barriers to business performance and efficiency, highlighting significant differences by geographic, business size and sector variables (all private sector respondents)

Total Most frequent mentions


35%

Allerdale (40%)

In LDNP (46%)

Construction (46%)

Visitor economy (42%)

Availability of affordable housing in the local area

31%

South Lakeland (38%)

In LDNP (43%)

Wholesale and retail (38%)

Accommodation and food services (38%)

Availability of suitable alternative business premises

20%

EA flood extent (30%)

Manufacturing (34%); specialist manufacturing (37%)


Not having suitable business premises at the moment

13%

Arts and recreation (29%)


Availability of executive housing 12% Wholesale and retail (17%)



57


Network and access relating to roads 38%

Copeland (61%)

Allerdale (47%)

10-24 employees (44%)





Availability of suitable bus services 30%

Copeland (40%)

Eden (36%)

In LDNP (36%)



Arts and recreation (49%)

Health services (42%)


Availability of parking for customers, staff or deliveries

28%


Urban areas (40%)





Availability of suitable air linkages to Cumbria 25%

Copeland (39%)



Network and access relating to rail 18%

Copeland (34%)




Professional, scientific, technical services (26%)


Availability of people able to do the job 38%


25+ employees (62%)


Businesses with skill gaps (65%)

Availability of suitable training 22%

25+ employees (29%)

Manufacturing (29%)

Professional, scientific, technical services (34%)


The economy 62%


25+ employees (70%)

Specialist manufacturing (72%)



58


Regulations 52%

Allerdale (61%)

In LDNP (61%)

Primary (71%)

Logistics and transport services (65%)

Access to or speed of broadband 48% In LDNP (59%)

Rural areas (54%)

Taxation, VAT, PAYE, National Insurance 46%




Cashflow 43% Primary (54%)

Young businesses (<4 years) (52%)

Business rates 34%



25+ employees (44%)






33%






Future increases in the minimum wage 28%

Copeland (36%)


25+ employees (47%)





Growth

59

5 Growth

5.1 Key points

Four-fifths of all businesses and organisations (80%) reported no change in the size of

their workforce since the same time last year. One in eight (12%) had increased the

size of their workforce and a lower proportion (9%) had reduced the number of staff

employed.

It can be estimated7 that employers took on around 7,700 new staff in the last 12

months, while shedding around 6,300 jobs. The net increase in employment is

estimated at around 1,400 staff.

A quarter of private sector businesses that have been trading for at least a year (25%)

reported an increase in their turnover in the last year. This is closely matched by the

quarter (26%) reporting a decrease.

The findings suggest that around 5,000 businesses experienced turnover growth in the

last 12 months, while around 5,200 experienced decline.

Key drivers of growth were considered to be an improvement in demand in their

markets and better work organisation (74%), better work organisation (55%) and

stronger marketing (50%).

Around two-thirds of private sector businesses aim to grow their output, sales turnover

and employment in the next two to three years (69%), which is a similar figure to that

reported in 2013 (68%). Around a quarter (27%) aim to grow in all of these ways.

The factors that businesses expect to drive future growth are very similar to those that

have been identified as having driven recent growth, although improving business

efficiency/productivity is the most frequently selected (77% of businesses aiming for

growth), above that of growth in demand and/or expansion of markets (73%). While,

also strongly featured as a driver of future growth is competitive pricing (73%).

‘Growers’ (businesses and organisations that have increased the number of staff

employed or turnover by 5% or more in the last year), account for 34% of all

businesses and organisations (27% in 2013). This group includes 10% of all that are

‘High growers’ (businesses and organisations have increased the number of staff

employed or increased their turnover by more than 20% in the last year) (9% in 2013)

‘Shrinkers’ (businesses and organisations that have reduced the number of staff

employed or reported a decrease in turnover by 5% or more and have not also

reported a similar size increase in employment or turnover) account for 22% of all

businesses and organisations (19% in 2013). The remaining 43% are classified as

‘Stable’ (54% in 2013).

Young businesses (those established less than 4 years) are more likely than average

to be ‘Growers’ (41%), while three in ten exporters are ‘Growers’ (30%).

7 This data is based on the survey data, ‘grossed up’ to represent the business population and

number of employees within the business population.


60

‘Growers’ are significantly more likely than average to have reported upward trends in

most areas of business activity, particularly output, but with the exception of raw

materials and energy prices, for which ‘Shrinkers’ are more likely to have reported an

increase.

5.2 Employment growth

Respondents were asked if their total employment at that site had changed in the last

year. Four-fifths (80%) reported having the same size workforce this year as last (79%

in 2013).

One in eight businesses and organisations (12%) had increased the size of their

workforce in the last year, with a lower proportion employing fewer staff this year than

last (8%). This compares with 10% and 9% in 2013 respectively.

The likelihood of experiencing employment growth increases with business size and

businesses and organisations with between 1 and 24 employees were significantly

more likely than average to report employment growth in excess of 20% of the

workforce (12% of 1-9 employers; 13% of 10-24 employees, compared with an

average overall of 8%).

By sector, manufacturing businesses and education organisations are most likely to

have reported an increase in employment (17% and 16% respectively), while one in

eight businesses in business services (12%) and health services (12%) report an

increase of 20% or more). Decreases in employment are most likely to have been

experienced within wholesale and retail (13%) and accommodation and food services

(14%)

As in 2013, positive net balances i.e. the proportion that report a decrease in

employment subtracted from the proportion that report an increase in employment, are

apparent across the board, increasing to +21% in the largest businesses (those with

100+ employees) and particularly within education (+9%) and business services

(+8%). There are also positive net balances in all districts except Allerdale. The

highest positive net balance by district is within Carlisle (+6%).

It should be noted that these figures do not give an indication of the number of jobs

involved either way.

Growth

61

Figure 5.1: Change in employment at establishment in the last year (all respondents) Unweighted sample bases in parentheses *caution: low sample bases

If survey findings are grossed up to Cumbria’s business population as a whole, it is

estimated that just under 2,800 businesses and organisations report growth in

employment at their establishment, whilst around 1,900 report a contraction.

Responses given, in terms of absolute numbers of staff by which the workforce has

increased or decreased provides an estimate of the net growth or loss in employment

overall. The following table estimates overall employment growth or contraction in

Cumbria, by district, size and sector:

9%

10%

10%

8%

8%

10%

8%

5%

9%

14%

13%

8%

5%

15%

6%

13%

14%

9%

0%

7%

5%

4%

7%

11%

13%

9%

12%

9%

14%

14%

10%

11%

12%

0%

14%

25%

24%

29%

8%

17%

8%

13%

14%

12%

2%

15%

9%

4%

16%

18%

13%

8%


Allerdale (428)

Barrow-in-Furness (165)

Carlisle (416)

Copeland (227)

Eden (309)


No employees (396)

1 to 9 employees (1127)



100+ employees (35)

Primary (172)

Manufacturing (137)

Construction (135)

Wholesale and retail (466)



Financial intermediation~ (23)


Professional, scientific and technical services…

Public services~ (24)

Education (154)



Other services (106)

Fewer More

2%

+3%

-1%

+4%

+6%

+2%

+1%

+4%

-5%

+5%

+11%

+11%

+21%

+3%

+2%

+2%

+3%

+2%

+8%

+4%

±0%

+9%

+7%

-1%


62

Table 5.2: Change in employment at establishment in the last year; number of businesses/staff (all respondents)

All b

usin

esse

s

Alle

rdale

Barro

w-in

-Fu

rne

ss

Carlis

le

Co

pela

nd

Ed

en

So

uth

Lakela

nd

No

em

plo

ye

es

An

y e

mp

loy

ees

1-9

em

plo

yees

10-2

4 e

mp

loye

es

25-9

9 e

mp

loye

es

100+

em

plo

yee

s

Have experienced growth

2,766 413 322 601 297 377 755 15 2,751 1763 618 300 70

Number of new staff

7,699 1446 786 1678 1256 624 1910 136 7,563 3329 1764 1439 1031

Have experienced contraction

1,910 432 244 280 180 283 490 341 1,569 1044 349 157 19

Number of staff lost 6,283 929 620 930 1952 795 1057 504 5,779 3003 1693 702 380

Net increase/ decrease

+1,416 +517 +166 +748 -696 -171 +853 -368 +1,784 +326 +71 +737 +651

Prim

ary

Man

ufa

ctu

ring

Co

nstru

ctio

n

Wh

ole

sale

an

d re

tail

Acco

mm

od

atio

n &

foo

d s

erv

ices

Tra

nsp

ort a

nd

co

mm

un

icatio

n

Fin

an

cia

l

inte

rmed

iatio

n

Bu

sin

es

s s

erv

ices

Pro

fes

sio

nal, s

cie

ntific

&

tech

nic

al s

erv

ices

Pu

blic

serv

ices

Ed

ucatio

n

Health

serv

ice

s

Arts

& re

cre

atio

n

Oth

er s

erv

ices


337 187 196 489 301 156 8 271 259 12 110 226 65 148

Number of new staff

554 1137 893 1047 889 398 15 463 572 60 395 782 189 303


187 128 144 461 292 106 0 140 119 12 49 132 72 67

Number of staff lost 223 1303 272 935 916 476 0 328 709 59 293 398 196 174

Net increase/ decrease

+331 -166 +621 +112 -27 -78 +15 +135 -137 +1 +102 +384 -7 +129

The data suggests that Copeland and Eden both suffered net losses while other

districts experienced net increases in employment. Within Allerdale, this is despite the

fact that the number of businesses reporting workforce reduction exceeds the number

reporting workforce growth, which highlights the extent to which analysis by business

unit can be misleading.

The largest net gains are to be found in the districts of South Lakeland and Carlisle

and within the production and construction sectors; namely construction and primary

industries, while within services, the health services sector shows the greatest net

gains in employment.

Growth

63

Businesses that are classified as ‘Growers’ – indicated by having increased the size of

their workforce or increased their turnover in the last 12 months (or both) by at least

5% – estimate a net increase of 6,786 staff in the last 12 months. This contrasts to a

net loss of 3,888 staff amongst ‘Shrinkers’ – businesses that have indicated decline in

either their turnover or the size of their workforce by at least 5% in the last 12 months.

5.3 Turnover growth

Respondents within businesses mainly seeking to make a profit that have been

established at least a year were asked if their turnover had changed in the last year

compared with the previous year. Nearly (47%) reported no change in their level of

turnover; while a quarter each reported an increase (25%) or a decrease (26%) in

turnover. These figures are similar to those reported in 2013 (44%; 28% and 25%

respectively).

The likelihood of experiencing turnover growth increases with business size, with 37%

of businesses with 25+ employees reporting an increase, compared with 24% of

businesses with up to 9 employees.

By sector, manufacturing businesses (33%) are significantly more likely to report an

increase in turnover in the last year; while the proportion is also relatively high

amongst businesses in professional, scientific and technical services (31%) and arts

and recreation (31%) and other services (32%). Three-fifths of businesses in financial

intermediation (61%) report an increase in turnover in the last year, but this is not

statistically significantly higher than average because of the small sample size.

Primary businesses are least likely to report an increase in turnover (8%) and

significantly more likely than average to report a decrease (40%). Agriculture is

highlighted as a sector that is most likely to report a downturn.


64

Figure 5.3: Change in turnover at establishment in the last year (private sector businesses established for at least a year) Unweighted sample bases in parentheses

*caution: low sample bases

If survey findings are grossed up to Cumbria’s business population as a whole, it is

estimated that just under 5,000 businesses report an increase in turnover, whilst just

over 5,000 report a contraction.

At this aggregate level, the largest negative imbalance between the number of

businesses experiencing lower levels of turnover versus those seeing an increase is

25%

20%

28%

23%

23%

27%

28%

24%

24%

29%

36%

40%

8%

33%

27%

28%

29%

23%

61%

31%

31%

27%

25%

31%

26%

31%

22%

27%

26%

24%

23%

26%

28%

22%

18%

13%

40%

25%

16%

29%

29%

26%

6%

12%

17%

19%

19%

27%

Total (1712)

Allerdale (345)


Carlisle (332)

Copeland (149)

Eden (251)


No employees (339)

1-9 employees (941)



100+ employees (21)


Manufacturing (134)

Construction (129)




Financial intermediation. (20)


Professional, science and technical services…

Education (31)



Increased Decreased

Growth

65

estimated for primary industries – with 367 businesses estimated to have experienced

turnover growth, and 1,748 businesses reporting a reduction in turnover – while within

professional, scientific and technical services there is a significant positive imbalance,

with 883 businesses reporting turnover growth and 496 reporting a decrease. The net

balance in terms of the estimated number of businesses in Cumbria having

experienced turnover growth rather than a reduction is summarised in the table that

follows.

Table 5.4: Change in turnover in the last year; number of businesses (private sector businesses established for at least a year)

To

tal

Alle

rdale

Barro

w-in

-Fu

rne

ss

Carlis

le

Co

pela

nd

Ed

en

So

uth

Lakela

nd

No

em

plo

ye

es

An

y e

mp

loy

ees

1-9

em

plo

yees

10-2

4 e

mp

loye

es

25-9

9 e

mp

loye

es

100+

em

plo

yee

s


4,945 808 435 867 491 808 1536 1,488 3,458 2,528 575 290 65


5,190 1,25

8 340 1,042 558 718 1273 1,620 3,570 2,976 427 146 21

Net increase/decrease

-245 -450 +95 -175 -67 +90 +263 -132 -112 -448 +148 +144 +44

Prim

ary

Man

ufa

ctu

ring

Co

nstru

ctio

n

Wh

ole

sale

an

d re

tail

Acco

mm

od

atio

n &

fo

od

serv

ices

Tra

nsp

ort a

nd

co

mm

un

icatio

n

Fin

an

cia

l

inte

rmed

iatio

n

Bu

sin

es

s s

erv

ices

Pro

fes

sio

nal,

scie

ntific

& te

ch

nic

al

serv

ice

s

Ed

ucatio

n

Health

serv

ice

s

Arts

& re

cre

atio

n

Oth

er s

erv

ices


367 336 593 945 559 252 178 458 883 51 123 83 116


1,748 258 362 999 549 289 18 178 496 36 95 72 92

Net increase/decrease

-1,381 +78 +231 -54 +10 -37 +160 +280 +387 +15 +28 +11 +24

5.4 Drivers of growth

Private sector businesses, established for at least a year, that reported an increase in

turnover in the last year (25% of all private sector businesses; 21% of all businesses

and organisations in Cumbria), were asked to specify what they thought had driven

their recent turnover growth.


66

They were prompted with a list of possible factors and were able to select as many as

applied. Responses are summarised in the figure below.

These businesses were most likely to specify an improvement in demand in their

markets (74%) and better work organisation (55%). Around half (50%) specified

stronger marketing as a factor that has driven recent growth.

Figure 5.5: Drivers of recent turnover growth – prompted, multiple response (Private sector respondents, established at least a year that report turnover growth in the last 12 months) Unweighted sample base = 470

Amongst businesses with employees, increasing staff productivity is a significant driver

of turnover growth (52%) and that is also true of staff or management training and

development (45%).

Focusing on non-staff related drivers, compared with businesses without employees,

businesses with employees are significantly more likely to cite having a formal plan or

strategy for growth (52%, compared with 30%) and investment in new technology or

premises (41%, compared with 18%) as drivers of turnover growth. They are also

74%

55%

50%

48%

46%

42%

40%

39%

37%

34%

33%

18%

8%

5%

7%

An improvement in demand in your markets

Better work organisation

Stronger marketing

Increasing the productivity of staff

Having a formal plan or strategy for growth

Have introduced new products or services

Bringing new skills into the business

Staff or management training and development

Have reduced or held down prices charged

Investment in new technology or premises

Expanding into new markets

One or more competitors has gone out of business

Head Office has driven growth at this branch

Have bought out or merged with another business

Other

Growth

67

significantly more likely to cite a reduction or holding down of prices as a driver (43%,

compared with 21% of businesses without employees).

By sector, wholesale and retail businesses are significantly more likely than average to

cite a range of drivers, including increasing staff productivity (57%); better work

organisation (69%); stronger marketing (60%); having a formal plan or strategy for

growth (59%) and introducing new products and services (64%) as drivers of recent

growth. Businesses in the accommodation and food services sector are significantly

more likely to cite stronger marketing (61%); staff or management training and

development (50%) and investment in new technology or premises (44%). Those in

professional, scientific and technical services are more likely than average to cite an

improvement in demand in their markets as a driver of growth (89%).

Businesses that export are significantly more likely than those that do not to cite

having a formal plan or strategy for growth (65% cf. 41%); better work organisation

(63% cf. 53%); stronger marketing (63% cf. 49%), bringing new skills into the business

(50% cf. 38%) and expanding into new markets (45% cf. 30%) as drivers of growth.

5.5 Growth plans

Respondents representing businesses mainly seeking to make a profit (private sector)

were asked whether their businesses aim to grow with regard to output, sales turnover

and employment in the next two to three years.

Just over two-thirds (69%) said that their business aims to grow in any of these ways

(68% in 2013), the most likely being through increasing sales turnover (66%, as in

2013). Just over a quarter (27%) reported that their business aims to grow in all of

these ways (29% in 2013), while 29% aims to increase the number of people

employed at the site which suggests that employment growth is planned to

accompany an increase in output and sales turnover.

Plans for growth (in any of the ways outlined) are significantly more likely than average

amongst businesses based in urban (76%) rather than rural (65%) areas and within

multi-site businesses (85%) rather than those operating from a single site (65%).

These characteristics are reflected in the higher than average proportion of businesses

within wholesale and retail and accommodation and food services that aim to grow

their businesses in any of these ways in the next two to three years (87% and 83%

respectively).

The propensity to plan growth in the next two to three years increases with business

size, from 57% of those without employees to 69% of those with between 1 and 9

employees, to 94% of those with 25+ employees.

These findings are summarised in the tables that follow:


68

Table 5.7: Ways in which businesses aim to grow in the next two to three years (all private sector respondents); percentages Figures in bold are significantly greater than average

minus the sub group tested

Total

Alle

rdale

Barro

w-in

-F

urn

ess

Carlis

le

Co

pela

nd

Ed

en

So

uth

L

akela

nd

Output – total volume of goods or service supplied 58 55 63 57 55 55 62

Sales turnover 66 63 72 63 70 64 69

Number of people employed at the site 29 25 33 31 30 26 32

All of these 27 23 32 29 27 23 28

Any of these 69 66 75 66 72 67 71

None of these 28 30 23 33 24 30 27

Don’t know 3 4 3 2 3 3 2

Unweighted Bases 1,742 352 104 335 149 257 545

Prim

ary

ind

ustrie

s

Man

ufa

ctu

ring

Co

nstru

ctio

n

Wh

ole

sale

& R

eta

il

Acco

mm

od

atio

n a

nd

foo

d s

erv

ices

Tra

nsp

ort a

nd

co

mm

un

icatio

ns

Fin

an

cia

l

inte

rmed

iatio

n

Bu

sin

es

s s

erv

ices

Pro

fes

sio

nal, s

cie

nce

an

d te

ch

nic

al s

erv

ices

Ed

ucatio

n

Health

serv

ice

s

Arts

an

d re

cre

atio

n

Oth

er s

erv

ices

Output – total volume of goods or service supplied

42 73 45 76 67 58 64 69 52 55 50 73 52

Sales turnover 47 77 57 86 80 68 77 76 58 69 56 79 59

Number of people employed at the site

14 47 21 41 42 28 16 37 26 35 30 30 29

All of these 12 44 17 38 38 26 16 34 24 31 26 30 28

Any of these 52 82 60 87 83 70 84 77 59 69 63 79 59

None of these 44 16 38 10 15 26 11 22 38 31 35 21 35

Don’t know 4 2 3 2 2 5 6 1 3 0 2 0 6

Unweighted Bases 168 134 131 438 293 105 20 102 160 31 65 43 52

Growth

69

1-9

employees 10-24

employees 25-99

employees 100+

employees No

employees Any

employees

Output – total volume of goods or service supplied

58 82 83 89 46 63

Sales turnover 66 89 92 91 55 71

Number of people employed at the site

29 59 69 76 14 36

All of these 26 57 60 74 12 33

Any of these 69 92 94 92 57 74

None of these 28 7 4 8 40 23

Don’t know 3 2 2 0 3 3

Unweighted Bases 960 284 130 21 347 1395

Businesses aiming for growth were asked to think about factors that they expect to

drive that growth.

They were prompted with a list of possible factors which was similar to that used to ask

respondents about drivers of recent turnover growth and were able to select as many

as applied. Responses are summarised in the following figure.

As might be expected, factors that are expected to drive growth are similar to those

that have already driven growth, with the majority of those aiming for growth

highlighting an improvement in demand in their markets as a driver (73%) and

competitive pricing, which is likely to result in increased demand, is considered on a

par in this respect (also 73%). The most frequently cited driver of future growth,

however, is considered to be improving business efficiency and productivity (77%).

Stronger marketing is cited as a driver by more than two-thirds of business that are

aiming for growth (69%), while just under two-thirds cited improving workforce skills

through recruitment or training (63%).


70

Figure 5.9: Expected drivers and single main driver of future growth – prompted, multiple response/single response (Private sector respondents aiming for growth) Unweighted sample base = 1328

By sector, businesses in manufacturing are particularly likely to expect growth in

demand and/or expansion of markets to drive future growth (82%), while those in

health services are significantly more likely than average to cite improving workforce

skills through recruitment or training as a driver (85%). Construction businesses are

most likely to cite competitive pricing as a driver (88%), while this proportion is also

higher within wholesale and retail (83%) and accommodation and food services (82%).

5.6 Growth indicators

The survey sample has been segmented into three broad groups, based on

employment or turnover growth. These are defined as follows:

‘Growers’: Businesses or organisations that have increased the number of staff

employed by 5% or more in the last year or that have increased turnover by 5% or

more in the last year.

‘Stable’: Businesses or organisations that have had the same number of staff or who

employed less than 5% more or fewer employees than 12 months ago and whose

turnover has remained the same or increased or decreased by less than 5%.

‘Shrinkers’: Businesses or organisations that have reduced the number of staff

employed by 5% or more in the last year or that report a reduction in turnover of 5% or

more compared with 12 months ago. In addition, this group has not grown

employment or turnover by 5% or more.

77%

73%

73%

69%

63%

53%

28%

11%

5%

Improving business efficiency/productivity

Growth in demand and/or expansion of markets

Competitive pricing

Stronger marketing

Improving workforce skills through recruitment ortraining

Investment in new technology or premises

Increasing market share through a reduction incompetition or merger with competitors

Head Office has driven growth at this branch

Other

Growth

71

In addition, there is a sub-set of ‘Growers’ that are ‘High growers’. These are

businesses or organisations that have increased the number of staff employed by

more than 20% in the last year or those that have increased their turnover by more

than 20% in the last year.

A further group of ‘incompletes’ are not discussed. This group includes respondents

that were unable or unwilling to provide the information that was required to place

them in one of the three groups. They account for just 2 cases.

The table below summarises the main characteristics of each of the four groups,

including the small sub-set of ‘High growers’.

Table 5.10: Growth segmentation (all respondents); percentages Figures in bold are

significantly greater than average minus the sub group tested *high growers are also included in the growers

segment

Un

weig

hte

d

Bases

Hig

h*

gro

wers

Gro

wers

Sta

ble

Sh

rink

ers

All businesses/organisations 2016 2,186 10 34 43 22

All businesses/organisations 2013 2,003 9 27 54 19

Local Authority District

Allerdale 428 6 26 49 25

Barrow-in-Furness 165 14 46 35 19

Carlisle 416 11 33 42 25

Copeland 227 11 39 42 19

Eden 309 12 35 42 22

South Lakeland 641 11 36 44 19

Employment size

No employees 396 9 27 50 22

Any employees 1,790 11 37 40 22

1-9 employees 1,132 12 34 42 24

10-24 employees 394 9 46 37 16

25-99 employees 229 4 54 33 12

100+ employees 35 5 43 38 12

Organisation type

Private sector 1,763 11 26 50 24

Public sector 148 4 87 1 8

Charity/voluntary 275 10 88 1 11

Single site 1,575 11 32 45 23

Multi-site 611 10 43 39 17

Age of business


72

Un

weig

hte

d

Bases

Hig

h*

gro

wers

Gro

wers

Sta

ble

Sh

rink

ers

Young (less than 4 years) 183 22 41 47 11

Established (4+ years) 1,559 10 25 50 25

Whether exports

Exporter 365 11 30 49 21

Non-exporter 1,283 11 26 50 24

Industry sector

Primary industries 172 4 12 49 38

Manufacturing 137 14 33 43 23

Construction 135 17 30 55 15

Wholesale and retail 466 8 31 44 24

Accommodation and food services 308 8 31 44 25

Transport and communication 116 10 29 53 18

Financial intermediation 23 9 68 32 0

Business services 128 17 42 47 11

Professional, scientific and technical services 165 16 35 50 16

Public services 24 4 91 0 4

Education 154 6 71 19 10

Health services 163 9 61 22 15

Arts and recreation 89 8 58 19 23

Other services 106 18 60 24 16

Overall, 34% of all businesses and organisations were classified as ‘Growers’, which

includes 10% that are classified as ‘High growers’. ‘Shrinkers’ account for 22% of all

businesses and organisations, with the remaining 43% classified as ‘Stable’.

Compared with 2013 there are more businesses and organisations identified as

‘Growers’ but also more as ‘Shrinkers’.

Around two-fifths of private sector businesses that have been established less than 4

years are ‘Growers’ (41%; including 22% that are ‘High growers’).

Public sector and charity/voluntary organisations are significantly more likely than

private sector businesses to be identified as ‘Growers’ (87% and 88% respectively).

This results in private sector businesses being less likely than average to be ‘Growers’

(26%), although the proportion that are ‘High growers’ is similar to the average (11%).

By sector, businesses and organisations in service sectors are more likely to be

identified as ‘Growers’ than those in production and construction sectors, with the

proportion that are ‘Growers’ particularly high in public sector dominated industries,

Growth

73

such as education and health services, as well as public services. Businesses in

financial intermediation, arts and recreation and other services sectors are also more

likely than average to be ‘Growers’, with those in other services also significantly more

likely to be ‘High growers’ (18%). ‘High growers’ are also more prevalent within

business services (17%) and professional, scientific and technical (16%) sectors, while

although no more likely than average to be ‘Growers’, businesses in the construction

sector are more likely than average to be ‘High growers’.

‘Growers’ are, naturally, significantly more likely than average to report upward trends

in most areas of business activity, particularly output but with the exception of raw

materials and energy prices (which ‘Shrinkers’ are more likely to identify as having

gone up) and they are also significantly more likely than average to have similarly

positive outlooks going forward.

This is summarised in the following table.


74

Table 5.11: Trends in business performance: Last 12 months/next 12 months (all private sector respondents); percentages Figures in bold are significantly greater than average

minus the sub group tested *high growers are also included in the growers segment

Hig

h*

gro

wers

Gro

wers

Sta

ble

Sh

rink

ers

Higher in the last 12 months

Domestic orders 65 62 9 3

Output 67 64 10 8

Prices charged to customers 44 36 18 14

Profit margins 60 47 8 2

Cash in the business 51 42 8 2

Investment 37 34 15 17

Raw material prices 34 37 32 38

Energy prices 39 38 33 38

Unweighted Bases (private sector only) 190 508 839 391

Export orders 24 16 8 9

Unweighted Bases (exporters only) 41 121 163 80

Staff costs 74 68 37 39

Unweighted Bases (organisations mainly seeking to make a profit with employees)

159 432 657 302

Higher in the next 12 months

Domestic orders 60 60 26 23

Prices charged to customers 36 37 29 25

Profit margins 55 51 28 25

Cash in the business 52 47 23 23

Investment 39 37 22 21

Raw material prices 37 41 32 41

Energy prices 43 42 36 42


Export orders 27 20 20 13

Unweighted Bases (exporters only) 41 121 163 80

Staff costs 66 64 43 48

Unweighted Bases (private sector businesses with employees only)

159 432 657 302

Aims to grow output in the next 2-3 years 79 77 50 52

Aims to grow sales turnover in the next 2-3 years 84 85 59 60

Aims to grow workforce in the next 2-3 years 52 45 23 25


Skills Gaps and Shortages

75

6 Skills Gaps and Shortages

6.1 Key points

Fourteen per cent of businesses with employees in Cumbria identify skill gaps in their

business or organisation, which is the same proportion as in 2013.

Employers are most likely to identify skill gaps in skilled trade occupations and low

skilled elementary administration and service occupations.

The most frequently cited skills lacking within workforces are technical and practical

skills and advanced IT or software skills.

A third of businesses (32%) had tried to recruit staff in the last 12 months and more

than half of these (53%; 17% of all businesses) had experienced some difficulties

filling job vacancies. Echoing where skill gaps have been reported, hard-to-fill

vacancies are most likely to have been reported for skilled trades and elementary

administration and service occupations.

The main causes of hard-to-fill vacancies have been the low number of applicants,

particularly of those with the required skills, and including a lack of interest in the jobs

advertised and remote locations of workplaces accompanied by poor public transport.

6.2 Skill gaps

6.2.1 Presence of skill gaps

Respondents working within businesses with employees were asked about skill gaps

within their business or organisation. For the purposes of obtaining an accurate

response, skill gaps were defined for respondents as existing where there are ‘people

working in the business/organisation at any level who are not as wholly skilled or

competent as you would like.’

Based on this definition, 14% of employers identified skill gaps in their

business/organisation. This is the same proportion as in 2013 and so remains slightly

higher than five years ago (12% in 2011).

As in previous years, the propensity to report skill gaps increases with business size to

24% of employers with 25 or more employees and 42% of those with 100 or more

employees.

The proportion identifying skill gaps is significantly higher than average within

manufacturing (24%) and the accommodation and food services sector (21%).

‘Growers’ are more likely than average to identify skill gaps within their workforce

(19%, increasing to 24% of ‘High growers’).


76

Figure 6.1: Proportion of employers that report skill gaps (All respondents with employees) Unweighted sample bases in parentheses

6.2.2 Occupations with skill gaps

Skill gaps are most likely to be experienced within skilled trades occupations (cited by

24% of employers with skill gaps), elementary administration and service occupations

(20%) and amongst administrative and secretarial occupations (15%). Compared with

three years ago, fewer businesses have skill gaps within management occupations

and there is an increasing need for skills in skilled trades occupations.

14%

11%

13%

14%

13%

15%

18%

15%

25%

20%

42%

13%

24%

14%

16%

21%

10%

10%

9%

16%

4%

14%

11%

12%

13%

24%

19%

16%

Total (2186)

Allerdale (428)


Carlisle (416)

Copeland (227)

Eden (309)





100+ employees (35)


Manufacturing (137)

Construction (135)






Professional, science and technical services (165)

Public services (24)

Education (154)




High growers (223)

Growers (879)

Shrinkers (436)


77

‘High growers’ are significantly more likely than average to identify skill gaps amongst

skilled trades occupations (36%).

Figure 6.2: Occupations in which there are skill gaps (where skill gaps reported) Unweighted sample bases in parentheses

6.2.3 Skills lacking

Respondents identifying skill gaps within the workforce were asked about the sort of

skills which their workforce lacks.

The most frequently cited skills lacking amongst businesses with employees with skill

gaps are technical and practical/specialist to the sector skills (58%; 44% in 2013).

Advanced IT or software skills are next most frequently cited (45%; 31% in 2013),

while management skills are mentioned by around two in five, (40%; 39% in 2013).

Around a third of those with skills gaps cite the need for customer handling, problem

solving, written communication, office/administration and basic computer literacy/using

IT skills within their workforce (see figure overleaf).

9%

7%

9%

15%

24%

8%

10%

7%

20%

17%

5%

10%

15%

18%

9%

12%

5%

15%

Managers, Directors and SeniorOfficials

Professional Occupations

Associate Professional andTechnical Occupations

Administrative and SecretarialOccupations

Skilled Trades Occupations

Caring, Leisure and Other ServiceOccupations

Sales and Customer ServiceOccupations

Process, Plant and MachineOperatives

Elementary Administration andService Occupations

2016 (320)

2013 (250)


78

Figure 6.3: Skills lacking or that are needed to improve – prompted, multiple response (where have skills gaps within the workforce/by sole trader) Unweighted


Around one in twelve of all respondents (8%) cited the need to improve their own

technical and practical skills (10% in 2013). They were asked to specify the technical

or practical skills they feel are lacking.

As in 2013, they were most likely to cite the need for IT skills that are specific to their

sector (22%), whilst a range of other skills were cited by just one or two respondents.

These other skills mainly included:

Technical knowledge; new technology and general experience;

Electrical/electronic skills; machining;

Product knowledge;

Accountancy skills;

New technology;

58%

45%

40%

36%

33%

32%

32%

30%

27%

26%

21%

20%

17%

6%

44%

31%

39%

33%

33%

24%

23%

27%

29%

23%

15%

14%

12%

20%

Technical and practical skills/skillsthat are specialist to sector

Advanced IT or software skills

Management skills

Problem solving skills

Customer handling skills

Written communication skills

Office/admin. skills

Basic computer literacy/using IT

Oral communication skills

Team working skills

Numeracy skills

Literacy skills

Foreign language skills

Other skills lacking

2016 (352) 2013 (256)


79

Engineering skills;

Cooking/catering skills;

Machining.

6.3 Skill shortages

Skill shortages are generally defined as a lack of relevant, suitably skilled people in the

labour market relative to the jobs that are available. Having a job vacancy that is

proving difficult to fill because of a lack of relevantly skilled and experienced applicants

would qualify as evidence of a skill shortage.

A third of respondents (32%) reported that their business or organisation has recruited

staff in the last 12 months or were trying to recruit at the time of the survey. This is a

similar proportion to that reported in 2013 (31%). This proportion increases with the

size of the workforce, from 33% of those with 1 to 9 employees to 90% of 100+

employers.

Workforce size is the key determinant of recruitment activity and sector variations tend

to reflect the extent to which sectors are populated by micro, small, medium and large

employers, as well as the extent to which single and multi-site organisations are

represented. Another factor is the level of staff turnover and this is higher in some

sectors; mainly those where there is a prevalence of lower skilled jobs and where part

time and casual employment is more widespread than average.

There were also higher than average levels of recruitment within wholesale and retail

(45%) and accommodation and food services (49%) businesses as a consequence of

the use of lower skilled and casual, part time employment in these sectors.

As would be expected, the propensity to have recruited any staff in the last 12 months

or recruiting currently is significantly higher amongst ‘Growers’ (52%) and still higher

amongst ‘High growers’ (64%). This is summarised in the figure that follows.


80

Figure 6.4: Proportion of employers that have recruited in the last 12 months or are recruiting currently (All respondents) Unweighted sample bases in parentheses

Just over half of all those who have recruited in the last 12 reported having some

vacancies that have been hard-to-fill; 53% or 17% of all respondents.

Businesses or organisations which have experienced hard-to-fill vacancies are most

likely to have done so with regard to elementary administration and service

occupations (26%) and skilled trade occupations (24%).

The occupations in which respondents reported recruitment difficulties are summarised

in the figure below.

32%

4%

33%

72%

84%

90%

15%

36%

23%

43%

48%

32%

28%

32%

21%

31%

59%

55%

37%

32%

57%

48%

23%

23%


0 employees (396)




100+ employees~ (35)

Primary (172)

Manufacturing (137)

Construction (135)

Wholesale and retail (466)


Transport and communication (116)

Financial intermediation~ (23)

Business services

Professional, scientific and technical services (165)

Public services~ (24)

Education (154)




High growers (223)

Growers (879)

Stable (860)

Shrinkers (436)


81

Figure 6.5: Occupations of hard-to-fill vacancies (where have experienced difficulties in recruiting staff) Unweighted sample base = 503

The incidence of hard-to-fill vacancies rose to nearly two-thirds (64%) in South

Lakeland.

Businesses within the varied sectors of construction (68%), accommodation and food

services (67%) and professional, scientific and technical services (67%) were more

likely than average to report recruitment difficulties.

While base sizes for many individual sectors are low, the table below summarises the

roles that businesses have found difficulties in recruiting.

This highlights that those in manufacturing and construction found the recruitment of

skilled trades particularly difficult, while this proportion is also relatively high within

accommodation and food services.

Those in accommodation and food services were also more likely than average to

mention difficulties in recruiting elementary administration and service roles.

Wholesale and retail businesses were particularly likely to have experienced

recruitment difficulties with regard to sales and customer service occupations.

Professional roles were most often experienced by businesses in the professional,

science and technical services sector.

6%

13%

9%

10%

24%

12%

14%

10%

26%

3%

Managers, Directors and Senior Officials

Professional Occupations

Associate Professional and Technical Occupations

Administrative and Secretarial Occupations


Caring, Leisure and Other Service Occupations

Sales and Customer Service Occupations

Process, Plant and Machine Operatives

Elementary Administration and ServiceOccupations

Can't code


82

Figure 6.6: Occupations/job titles where there have been difficulties in recruiting (Where have had difficulties in recruiting in the last 12 months or currently), percentages Unweighted sample bases in parentheses; Figures in bold are significantly greater and

those in italics significantly lower than average minus the sub group tested ~ denotes low sample bases

Prim

ary

ind

ustrie

s

Man

ufa

ctu

ring

Co

nstru

ctio

n

Wh

ole

sale

& R

eta

il

Acco

mm

od

atio

n a

nd

foo

d

serv

ice

s

Tra

nsp

ort a

nd

co

mm

un

icatio

ns

Fin

an

cia

l inte

rmed

iatio

n

Bu

sin

es

s s

erv

ices

Pro

fes

sio

nal, s

cie

nce a

nd

tech

nic

al s

erv

ices

Pu

blic

serv

ices

Ed

ucatio

n

Health

serv

ice

s

Arts

an

d re

cre

atio

n

Oth

er s

erv

ices

Managers, Directors and Senior Officials

0 7 0 9 10 0 0 0 0 24 4 14 6 0

Professional Occupations 0 7 7 3 0 23 0 7 48 23 28 29 6 37

Associate Professional and Technical Occupations

0 6 8 6 0 11 69 16 34 0 18 1 20 12

Administrative and Secretarial Occupations

19 14 0 5 4 16 31 19 13 47 5 9 12 10


14 59 68 16 48 2 0 7 10 0 9 2 9 0

Caring, Leisure and Other Service Occupations

7 3 0 1 15 0 0 14 4 0 31 53 25 46

Sales and Customer Service Occupations

0 5 0 57 4 0 0 0 7 0 4 3 21 0

Process, Plant and Machine Operatives

14 29 4 10 3 48 0 22 3 29 3 2 4 0

Elementary Administration and Service Occupations

59 18 24 12 65 0 0 25 3 0 18 8 25 6

Unweighted sample bases

13~ 33 25~ 103 114 24~ 3~ 21~ 39 4~ 32 53 26~ 13~

Where difficulties had been encountered, respondents were asked what they thought

were the main causes of that difficulty in recruiting.

Three in ten (29%) of respondents mentioned the issue of low numbers of applicants

with the required skills, while around one in six mentioned the low number of

applicants generally (17%); not enough people interested in doing the job (16%) and/or

the remote location/poor public transport (17%). Issues to do with the job’s terms and

conditions and other logistics in working for the business are less frequently

mentioned.


83

Figure 6.7: Main causes of difficulties in recruiting (Where have had difficulties in recruiting) Unweighted sample base: 503 Responses cited by 2% or more shown

29%

17%

17%

16%

11%

10%

7%

7%

6%

5%

4%

2%

Low number of applicants with the requiredskills

Remote location/poor public transport

Low number of applicants generally

Not enough people interested in doing this typeof job

Low number of applicants with the requiredattitude, motivation or personality

Poor terms and conditions (eg. pay) offered forpost

Lack of work experience the company demands

Job entails shift work/unsociable hours

Lack of qualifications the company demands

Too much competition from other employers

High cost of living/lack of affordable housing

Lack of training available


84

7 Training

7.1 Key points

Half of businesses and organisations in Cumbria (51%) have arranged or funded

training or development for employees at their site in the last year. Around two-fifths

have arranged or funded off-the-job training (38%) and/or on-the-job training (41%).

The most frequently cited barrier to the provision of training amongst those that do not

train is a perceived lack of need (14%), while amongst those that train, the main barrier

to providing more training is that no more money is available for training (15%).

7.2 Training

7.2.1 Training provision

Around half the respondents (51%) reported that their business or organisation had

arranged or funded staff training or development – either on- or off-the-job – for

employees at their site. This compares with a slightly higher proportion in 2013 (53%).

This increases to 61% of businesses or organisations with any employees (62% in

2013).

The propensity to have arranged or funded training rises sharply with the size of the

workforce. Amongst businesses or organisations with 10 or more staff around nine in

ten (87%) offer training, with nearly all those with 100 or more staff (95%) doing so.

The figure that follows summarises these findings and highlights the extent to which

the incidence of both on- and off-the-job training increases in larger businesses or

organisations.

Training

85

Figure 7.1: Training arranged and funded in the last 12 months, by business size (all respondents) Unweighted sample bases in parentheses

Businesses or organisations based in Barrow-in-Furness are significantly more likely

than average to have arranged or funded any training (60%), while those in South

Lakeland are less likely than those in other districts to do so (48%). Those based in

urban locations are more likely than those in rural areas to have arranged or funded

any training (59%, compared with 47%).

The propensity to have arranged or funded training is highest in public services,

education, and health services sectors (94%, 82% and 91% respectively), while also

significantly higher than average in the arts and recreation sector (79%) and within

wholesale and retail (58%), although the latter involves mainly on-the-job training.

There are lower than average levels of training within primary industries (34%) and

construction (46%).

38%

20%

38%

67%

71%

84%

41%

16%

43%

75%

86%

93%

51%

26%

53%

84%

92%

95%

Total (2186)

No employees (396)




100+ employees (35)

Any off-the-job training Any on-the-job training Any training


86

Table 7.2: Training arranged and funded in the last 12 months (all respondents); percentages Figures in bold are significantly greater than average minus the sub group tested

Total

Alle

rdale

Barro

w-in

-

Fu

rness

Carlis

le

Co

pela

nd

Ed

en

So

uth

Lakela

nd

Off-the-job training only 10 10 8 10 14 7 9

On-the-job training only 13 14 14 14 11 12 13

Both on and off the job training 28 27 39 26 25 31 26

Any off-the-job training 38 37 47 37 39 38 36

Any on-the-job training 41 41 53 41 36 43 39

Any training 51 51 60 51 50 50 48

No training 49 49 40 49 50 50 52

Unweighted Bases 2186 428 165 416 227 309 641

Prim

ary

ind

ustrie

s

Man

ufa

ctu

ring

Co

nstru

ctio

n

Wh

ole

sale

& R

eta

il

Acco

mm

od

atio

n

an

d fo

od

serv

ice

s

Tra

nsp

ort a

nd

co

mm

un

icatio

ns

Fin

an

cia

l

inte

rmed

iatio

n

Bu

sin

es

s s

erv

ices

Pro

fes

sio

nal,

scie

nc

e a

nd

tech

nic

al s

erv

ices

Pu

blic

serv

ices

Ed

ucatio

n

Health

serv

ice

s

Arts

an

d re

cre

atio

n

Oth

er s

erv

ices

Off-the-job training only 10 8 9 10 7 8 10 11 13 22 4 8 9 10

On-the-job training only 7 12 4 22 19 11 24 14 10 7 14 18 16 11

Both on and off the job training

17 29 19 25 26 26 41 31 31 33 62 53 48 35

Any off-the-job training 27 36 28 35 33 34 51 42 44 55 66 60 57 45

Any on-the-job training 25 41 23 47 45 37 65 45 41 41 76 70 64 46

Any training 34 48 33 57 52 45 75 56 54 63 81 78 73 56

No training 66 52 67 43 48 55 25 44 46 37 19 22 27 44

Unweighted Bases 172 137 135 466 308 116 23 128 165 24 154 163 89 106

Training staff is more likely within multi-site businesses and organisations (75%,

compared with 44% of single site enterprises), which is linked to business size. The

majority of public sector and charity/voluntary organisations have arranged or funded

training in the last year (82% and 72% respectively), compared with just under half of

businesses in the private sector (47%).

‘Growers’ are significantly more likely than average to have arranged or funded

training (65%) and this proportion compares with just 44% of ‘Shrinkers’.

Training

87

7.2.2 Barriers to the provision of training

All respondents were asked about the barriers preventing their business or

organisation providing training or providing more training in the last 12 months.

The figure below summarises the barriers identified by those that provided any training

in the last 12 months and those that did not.

Figure 7.3: Barriers to the provision of training in the last 12 months, by whether arranged/funded training – unprompted, multiple response (all respondents) Unweighted sample bases in parentheses * denotes less than 0.5%

The main barrier or reason for not providing any training is that staff are perceived as

being already fully proficient and not in need of training (14% of those that have not

provided training in the last 12 months).

15%

10%

9%

6%

3%

3%

2%

2%

1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

3%

6%

4%

2%

2%

14%

1%

*%

*%

1%

*%

7%

*%

*%

2%

*%

3%

No money available for training

Lack of time generally

External courses are too expensive

The courses interested in are not available locally

All our staff are fully proficient/no need for training

No training available in relevant subject area

Employees are too busy to undertake training anddevelopment

Location difficulties/travel issues

Managers have lacked the time to organise training

Employees are too busy to give training

Small business (one man band)

The quality of the courses or providers locally is notsatisfactory

Difficult to get information about the coursesavailable locally

Training is not considered to be a priority for theestablishment

Don't have enough staff cover

Other

Any training (1316) No training (870)


88

More than half of both those that have provided training cite no barriers or particular

reason for not training or not providing more training (56%) and the proportion is even

higher amongst those that have not provided any training in the last 12 months (64%).

This reflects the fact that those who do not provide much if any training are less likely

to go through the process of identifying obstacles to doing so. Some will not even

have considered the idea.

Focus On Infrastructure Developments in Cumbria

89

8 Focus On Infrastructure Developments in Cumbria

Prior to the December 2015 flooding in the area, the Cumbria Business Survey had

already been in progress and 774 interviews had already been undertaken with

businesses across all size bands, sectors and districts.

The questionnaire used in this first phase of the survey included a number of questions

that covered levels of awareness and the perceived impact of prospective

infrastructure developments in the area amongst businesses.

The projects discussed included:

The new nuclear generating plant at Moorside

A proposal to build three AP1000 nuclear plants near Sellafield in Cumbria. The

plan by NuGeneration, which is the British subsidiary of Toshiba-owned

Westinghouse Electric Company, has the station coming online from 2024 with

3.4GW of new nuclear capacity.

The West Cumbria Water Supply project

A plan to link West Cumbria to the rest of our regional water network via a major

new pipeline from Thirlmere to West Cumbria, a new water treatment works,

pumping stations and underground service reservoirs.

The Walney Off-shore Wind farm

Walney Offshore Wind Farm, located 15km west of Barrow-in-Furness in

Cumbria, UK, began generating power from its first turbine in January 2011. The

turbine is connected to the national grid through an offshore transformer at

Heysham. The wind farm consists of 102 turbines which were installed in two

phases, Walney I and Walney II. Built at a cost of £1bn ($1.58bn), the project

delivers 367.2MW of combined energy sufficient to power more than 320,000

households in the UK.

The West Cumbria Tidal Lagoon

With one of the UK’s highest tidal ranges the West Cumbrian Coast holds

significant potential for energy generation and plans for a full-scale tidal lagoon

on the coast north of Workington are being considered.

The West Cumbria Mining project

The coalfield is 400-600m deep offshore under the sea. The mine is expected be

a ‘drift mine’, with an access point south of Whitehaven, where the mine offices

will also be built. The exact location is yet to be determined and will be developed

in consultation during the development phase.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AP1000

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sellafield

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cumbria

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NuGeneration

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toshiba

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Westinghouse_Electric_Company


90

BAe Systems expansion

Proposals to extend the Devonshire Dock Hall and build a new Central Yard

Complex which will support the Successor programme at Barrow shipyard,

boosting job opportunities in South Cumbria.

8.1 Key points

Around one in five businesses (19%) sell or provide services to organisations in the

nuclear industry, which suggests that the development at Moorside will have a

significant impact on the local economy.

The majority of businesses and organisations (82%) were aware of the Moorside

Nuclear Plant development prior to taking part in the survey. A quarter of all (24%)

consider themselves quite/very knowledgeable about it.

Awareness and knowledge of the plans is greatest in the district of Copeland (98%

aware; 57% quite/very knowledgeable).

One in six businesses and organisations (17%) thought it likely that their business

would pursue supply chain opportunities from the Moorside development, increasing to

29% within the district of Copeland.

Most businesses and organisations that consider it likely or are undecided with regard

to pursuing such supply chain opportunities think some support in doing so would be

helpful (89% specify any support). This is most likely to be with regard to information

about goods and services required and how to access these opportunities (75%) and

support to help build linkages with potential partners and suppliers (71%).

In terms of the impact of the Moorside nuclear development on businesses and

organisations, the most positive anticipated impact is the increase in local expenditure

resulting from incoming construction workers, while the most negative impact is likely

to be from the volume of traffic during construction and this is more pronounced in the

district of Copeland.

When it comes to the development’s impact on the local economy, the views of

businesses and organisations are very positive. Very few anticipate a negative impact.

Around three-quarters of respondents anticipate positive change to the extent of new

job opportunities, the retention of young people locally as a result of these new

opportunities and a benefit to the economy as a result of the expenditure of workers

and suppliers.

In contrast, the most frequently mentioned negative impacts are with regard to

potential increases in house prices and the cost of general goods and services locally

due to greater demand. Between one in four and one in five anticipate this.

In terms of other infrastructure developments in Cumbria, 70% of respondents have

heard of the Walney Off-shore Wind farm; 49% have heard of the BAe Systems

expansion; 33% have heard of the West Cumbria Tidal Lagoon; 28% of the West

Cumbria Mining project and 25% of the West Cumbria Water Supply project.

Respondents are most knowledgeable about Walney Off-shore Wind farm (14% are

quite/very knowledgeable) and the BAe Systems expansion (11%). On the whole,

most of those that are aware of these projects have little knowledge of them.


91

More than half of respondents that have heard of any of these infrastructure

developments (53%) do not anticipate any impact from them on their business. The

majority of the remainder (38% of all those aware of any) anticipate a positive impact.

This increases to more than half of respondents in Barrow in Furness (53%) and

Copeland (51%).

8.2 Sample profile

Since the questions regarding infrastructure developments were only asked prior to the

December 2015 flooding events, the responses and these findings are only based on a

partial sample. Ultimately, while two-thirds of the total sample for the 2015/2016

business survey participated in the survey in 2016, after the flooding, and thus were

asked questions about the impact of the flooding, around a third of the total sample

participated in the survey in October/November 2015 and answered questions about

local infrastructure developments.

It is important to review the sub-sample to provide evidence of the representativeness

of responses. The data was weighted on the basis of the total Cumbria business

population to minimise the effects of under- and over- sampling on the statistics. A

comparison between the unweighted and weighted samples shows little difference

across size bands and districts, suggesting that interviews were well distributed across

these variables, while there is more, although still insignificant, variance before and

after weighting by industry sector, which reflects differing response rates by sector.

Table 8.1: Sample profile – infrastructure development questions

Achieved interviews

no.

Unweighted sample %

Weighted no.

Weighted sample %

ABDE: Primary (agriculture, forestry, fishing, mining, quarrying, electricity, water supply)

58 7 76 10

C: Manufacturing 45 6 39 5

F: Construction 34 4 84 11

G: Wholesale and retail 173 22 137 18

H: Transport and storage 23 3 25 3

I: Accommodation and food services 122 16 77 10

J: Information and communication 17 2 20 3

K: Financial and insurance activities 7 1 13 2

L: Real estate activities/

N: Administrative and support service activities

38 5 65 8

M: Professional, scientific and technical activities

51 7 107 14


11 1 12 2

P: Education 55 7 26 3


92

Achieved interviews

no.

Unweighted sample %

Weighted no.

Weighted sample %

Q: Human health and social work activities

42 5 46 6

R: Arts, entertainment and recreation

44 6 21 3

S: Other services 54 7 28 4

No employees 169 22 187 24

1-9 employees 447 58 438 57

10-24 employees 102 13 93 12

25-99 employees 47 6 47 6

100+ employees 9 1 9 1

Allerdale 85 11 89 11

Barrow in Furness 18 2 37 5

Carlisle 72 9 94 12

Copeland 37 5 49 6

Eden 77 10 70 9

South Lakeland 142 18 131 17

Total 774 100 774 100

Results from this part sample may be presumed accurate (with a 95% confidence

level) within a maximum sample error of +/-3.5%. The margin of error on sub-sets of

the total sample is larger, depending on the unweighted number of respondents.

Similarly to the overall total 2015/2016 sample, the majority of respondents represent

private sector businesses (83%), while one in eight are charity/voluntary organisations

(12%) and around one in twenty (4%) operate within the public sector. Around three-

quarters of organisations (73%) operate from a single site, with the majority of the

remainder branches or subsidiaries of larger organisations (19%) and a minority of all

organisations (7%) head offices.

Around one in ten businesses or organisations (11%) have been established for less

than 4 years. This proportion is higher than average amongst businesses and

organisations in other services (25%), accommodation and food services (23%) and

real estate/administrative support (21%).

A review of where key decisions are made by businesses and organisations in this

sub-sample highlights the fact that the vast majority are made within Cumbria. There

will be a sharp focus on investment within the county as a result.


93

Figure 8.2: Location of key decision-making (all 2015 respondents) Unweighted sample

base = 774

The types of customers that private sector businesses sell to is summarised in the

figure below. One in five businesses (19%) sells or provide services to organisations

in the nuclear industry in which significant infrastructure development is planned.

Figure 8.3: Types of customer that businesses sell or provide services to (all 2015 private sector businesses) Unweighted sample base = 614

While 22% of manufacturing businesses serve organisations in the nuclear industry,

the proportion of businesses that do so is higher than average within transport (29%),

accommodation and food services (29%), information and communications (31%) and

professional, scientific and technical (33%) sectors. The proportion increases to 35%

of businesses with between 10 and 99 employees.

95%

92%

91%

88%

88%

87%

Recruitment

Training

Purchasing


Marketing

Investment

76%

44%

40%

19%

60%

Domestic/individual consumers


Public sector organisations, such as those in localgovernment, health, education or defence

Organisations within the nuclear industry

Other private sector businesses (inc distributorsetc if private companies)


94

8.3 Moorside Nuclear Plant

Respondents were asked if they had been aware of this development prior to it being

mentioned during the interview.

Overall, 82% of businesses and organisations were aware of this project. This

includes 38% of all that said they knew a little about it and 24% that said they were

quite/very knowledgeable about it.

Businesses and organisations within manufacturing (34%), and the sectors of finance

(31%), public administration (44%) and arts, entertainment and recreation (34%) were

those in which respondents were particularly likely to consider themselves quite/very

knowledgeable about it (see Figure 8.4).

Awareness is highest in the district of Copeland (98%), where more than half of all

businesses and organisations (57%) feel they are quite/very knowledgeable about the

project.


95

Figure 8.4: Extent of awareness and knowledge of Moorside Nuclear Plant development, by industry sector (all businesses) Unweighted sample bases in parentheses

All respondents were asked if their business would be likely to pursue supply chain

opportunities from the Moorside development. Those unaware of the project had

received a short description and were considering the possibility for the first time. One

in six respondents (17%) thought it likely that their business would pursue such

opportunities. This increased to 29% amongst those based in Copeland and was

highest amongst those in businesses and organisations with between 25 and 99 staff

(31%).

18%

9%

11%

24%

24%

17%

24%

18%

17%

11%

23%

28%

10%

29%

20%

26%

23%

19%

17%

19%

20%

16%

21%

15%

9%

33%

20%

18%

36%

38%

38%

33%

27%

39%

43%

33%

45%

69%

43%

50%

47%

19%

37%

38%

13%

24%

25%

34%

29%

20%

20%

23%

21%

31%

19%

23%

44%

26%

15%

34%

22%


Primary (exc. Manuf andConstruct) (58)

Manufacturing (45)

Construction (34)

Wholesale and Retaildistribution (173)

Transport andCommunications (23)

Accommodation and Food(122)

Information, communication(17)



Prof. Scientific, Tech.services (51)


Education (55)



Other (54)

No – not aware

Heard of it but don't know anything more about it

Know a little about it

Quite/very knowledgeable about it


96

Just 4% reported themselves as undecided or unsure. The main reason given for

being undecided or unsure was ‘insufficient information’ from which to make a

decision.

Amongst those businesses and organisations that consider it likely that they will

pursue supply chain opportunities from the Moorside development, including those that

are undecided, most think that some support would be helpful. Three-quarters (75%)

think information about goods and services required and how to access these

opportunities would be helpful, while slightly fewer (71%) feel support to help the

business build linkages with potential partners and suppliers would be helpful. More

than half (53%) would like help navigating the procurement process and a third (35%)

would like support to help recruit and train new workers and to up-skill existing staff.

Business/organisation size is a key determinant of the need for support in this respect.

While those with no employees are less likely than average to flag the need for help,

those with fewer than 25 employees are more likely to do so than larger businesses or

organisations. This is summarised in the figure that follows.

Figure 8.5: Types of support that businesses and organisations think would be most helpful to their business, by size (where likely to pursue supply chain opportunities or are undecided) Unweighted sample bases in parentheses

Those that are unlikely to pursue supply chain opportunities cited lack of relevance to

their business or organisation in most cases.

75%

53%

71%

35%

89%

60%

55%

50%

27%

70%

85%

58%

82%

33%

93%

63%

42%

69%

45%

97%

70%

39%

61%

45%

91%

Information about goods and services requiredand how to access these opportunities

Support with navigating the procurementprocess

Support to help the business build linkages withpotential partners and suppliers

Support to help recruit and train new workersand to upskill existing staff

Any support

All businesses (155) No employees (29) 1 - 9 employees (83)

10-24 employees (24) 25+ staff (19)


97

8.4 Impact of the Moorside development on businesses

All respondents regardless of prior awareness or depth of knowledge of the Moorside

nuclear development were asked to consider the extent to which the proposed nuclear

power station might have an impact on their business or organisation in a number of

ways.

Respondents are most likely to expect some impact from expenditure of incoming

construction workers and least likely to anticipate an impact on their access to goods

and services. Expenditure from incoming construction workers is anticipated to be a

particularly positive impact, while the volume of traffic during construction is anticipated

to be a particularly negative impact.

In most respects, the proportion of respondents anticipating a positive impact exceeds

the proportion anticipating a negative impact. The exception to this is with regard to the

volume of traffic (25% anticipate a negative impact; 9% anticipate a positive impact),

while a slightly higher proportion of respondents anticipate a negative impact on the

volume of tourists and other visitors attracted to West Cumbria (20%; 18%). In both of

these cases, nearly two-thirds of respondents anticipate no impact as a consequence

of the Moorside nuclear development (64% each).

Table 8.6: Perceived potential impacts of the Moorside nuclear development on businesses and organisations (all businesses) Unweighted sample base = 774

Major positive impact

%

Minor positive impact

%

Minor negative

%

Major negative impact

%

No impact

%

The local expenditure of incoming construction workers

18 19 4 3 54

The volume of traffic during the construction 5 4 13 12 64

The volume of tourists and other visitors attracted to West Cumbria

8 10 10 10 64

The competition for younger workers 10 11 6 5 66

The demand for housing and accommodation for workers

12 11 7 7 66

The competition for local workers, including engineers and construction workers

9 8 7 6 68

The access to goods and services your business requires

6 5 4 4 80

The perceived impact of the Moorside nuclear development varies slightly by

geographic area, with businesses in Copeland particularly likely to anticipate negative

impact from the volume of traffic during the construction (see table 8.7).


98

Table 8.7: Perceived potential impacts of the Moorside nuclear development on businesses and organisations, by district (all businesses) Figures in bold are significantly

greater than average minus the sub group tested

Allerdale %

Barrow in

Furness %

Carlisle %

Copeland %

Eden %

South Lakeland

%

The local expenditure of incoming construction workers


1 2 3 6 3 4


27 18 9 31 12 15

The volume of traffic during the construction


11 4 10 37 6 11


7 10 5 6 1 3

The competition for local workers, including engineers and construction workers


1 8 8 5 6 8


11 15 4 18 8 6

The competition for younger workers


3 4 9 4 1 6


12 13 4 19 9 8

The access to goods and services your business requires


2 1 5 4 3 6


9 11 3 10 4 4

The demand for housing and accommodation for workers


3 1 7 7 2 5


17 18 5 19 7 9

The volume of tourists and other visitors attracted to West Cumbria


3 2 6 10 8 7


11 7 4 17 3 9


8.5 Impact of the Moorside development on local economy

All respondents were also asked to consider the extent to which the proposed nuclear

power station might have an impact on the local economy as a whole. Again, this was

regardless of prior awareness or depth of knowledge of the Moorside nuclear

development.

Respondents were most likely to anticipate the provision of access to new job

opportunities for local people as a positive impact of the development, while most likely

to anticipate that a possible increase in the cost of general goods and services locally

and/or house prices due to greater demand as a potential negative impact. However,

the possible increases in cost of living locally are impacts that are least expected.

The views of respondents suggest that the development is considered in a very

positive light, with very few anticipating it having a negative impact in any of the ways

specified.


99

Table 8.8: Perceived potential impacts of the Moorside nuclear development on the local economy as a whole (all businesses) Unweighted sample base = 774


%


%

Minor negative

%


%

No impact

%

Providing access to new job opportunities for local people

52 26 2 1 14

Retention of young people locally through improved job prospects

47 31 2 1 16

Change in local economic and business activity through the expenditure of workers and suppliers

33 39 3 2 21

The growth of the nuclear sector and the associated supply chains

39 30 3 2 22

Improvements in the skills of workforce 32 37 1 3 24

Increase in house prices due to greater demand 16 24 17 9 31

Increases in the cost of general goods and services locally due to greater demand

14 15 14 5 49

By district, respondents in Allerdale are particularly likely to anticipate positive impacts

in any of these aspects of the local economy (see table 8.9). Those in Copeland are

particularly likely to anticipate the development having a positive impact on job

opportunities locally.


100

Table 8.9: Perceived potential impacts of the Moorside nuclear development on businesses and organisations, by district (all businesses) Figures in bold are significantly


Allerdale %

Barrow in

Furness %

Carlisle %

Copeland %

Eden %

South Lakeland

%

Change in local economic and business activity through the expenditure of workers and suppliers


1 0 2 2 3 3


43 36 29 43 27 25

The growth of the nuclear sector and the associated supply chains


1 0 1 2 4 3


50 44 37 44 28 31

Improvements in the skills of workforce


2 0 2 5 4 3


44 31 31 37 26 24

Providing access to new jobs opportunities for local people


1 0 2 2 2 1


58 43 50 65 44 49

Retention of young people locally through improved job prospects


1 0 1 3 2 1


58 41 44 55 36 43

Increases in the cost of general goods and services locally due to greater demand


4 0 2 3 5 9


22 17 12 16 10 9

Increase in house prices due to greater demand


10 1 10 9 6 12


25 18 12 19 10 12


8.6 Awareness and knowledge of other infrastructure development

projects

Respondents were asked if they had been aware of the following infrastructure

developments prior to them being mentioned during the interview.






There is highest awareness of the Walney Off-shore Wind farm (70% are aware of it),

with one in seven of all respondents considering themselves quite/very knowledgeable


101

about it. In contrast, just 25% of all respondents are aware of the West Cumbria Water

Supply project and 6% of all consider themselves quite/very knowledgeable about it.

Around half of all respondents are aware of the BAe Systems expansion (49%); a third

are aware of the West Cumbria Tidal Lagoon (33%) and just over a quarter are aware

of the West Cumbria Mining project (28%).

Figure 8.10: Extent of awareness and knowledge (all businesses) Unweighted sample

base = 774

There is little variance in the propensity to be aware of these projects by sector or size,

although respondents within the public administration and defence sector are more

likely than average to consider themselves knowledgeable about the West Cumbria

Water Supply project (28%), the Walney Off-shore Wind farm (21%) and the West

Cumbria Mining project (17%). The sample base in this sector is small but it is

probable that these projects have a higher profile within government funded local

organisations.

Knowledge of the BAe Systems expansion is greater than average within the sectors

of arts, entertainment and recreation (22%) and education (19%).

Awareness and knowledge of these projects varies considerably by district however.

This in itself highlights the extent to which these projects are of more significance at a

local, district level. Respondents in Barrow in Furness are significantly more likely

than average to be aware of and knowledgeable about the Walney Off-shore Wind

farm (96% aware; 43% quite/very knowledgeable) and the BAe Systems expansion

(89%; 43% quite/very knowledgeable). Awareness of the Walney Off-shore Wind farm

is also relatively high in South Lakeland (78%) and Copeland (76%). Respondents in

Copeland are significantly more likely than average to be aware and knowledgeable of

the West Cumbria Water Supply project (52% aware; 15% quite/very knowledgeable)

30%

51%

67%

72%

75%

25%

17%

14%

12%

8%

32%

21%

14%

13%

11%

14%

11%

6%

3%

6%





The West Cumbria Water Supplyproject

Not heard of Heard of, don't know more Know a little bit Quite/very knowledgeable


102

and the West Cumbria Mining project (61%; 14%). Those in Allerdale are particularly

likely to be aware and knowledgeable of the West Cumbria Water Supply project

(54%; 18%), while more likely than average to be aware of the West Cumbria Tidal

Lagoon (49%) and the West Cumbria Mining project (43%).

Table 8.11: Extent of awareness and knowledge, by district (all businesses) Please note: the % Aware at all includes the % Quite/very knowledgeable Figures in bold are significantly


Allerdale %

Barrow in

Furness %

Carlisle %

Copeland %

Eden %

South Lakeland

%


Aware at all 54 15 12 52 12 9

Quite/very knowledgeable

18 4 0 15 2 2


Aware at all 65 96 56 76 54 78


10 43 5 13 4 16


Aware at all 38 89 32 56 33 59


5 43 4 6 2 15


Aware at all 49 24 33 34 27 28


10 9 2 12 2 4


Aware at all 43 17 28 61 16 13


5 4 0 14 1 0


8.7 Anticipated impact of infrastructure development projects

Respondents aware of any of these development projects were asked if, overall, they

might have a positive or negative impact on their business.

Just over half think there would be no impact on their business (53%), while the

majority of the remainder anticipated a positive impact (38% of all those aware). Just

one in twenty expect a negative impact (6%), and most of these (4% of all those

aware) think it will be minor.


103

Figure 8.12: Anticipated impact of infrastructure development plans on businesses (where aware of plans) Unweighted sample base = 589

Respondents based in Barrow in Furness and Copeland are most likely to anticipate a

positive impact as a result of the infrastructure development plans; 34% and 26%

respectively anticipate a major positive impact.

Figure 8.13: Anticipated impact of infrastructure development plans on businesses, by district (where aware of plans) Unweighted sample bases in parentheses Figures in bold are

significantly greater than average minus the sub group tested

17%

21%

53%

4%

2%

2%



No impact

Minor negative impact


Don't know

4%

1%

3%

3%

3%

5%

1%

3%

2%

1%

3%

4%

4%

6%

3%

3%

52%

36%

64%

27%

68%

50%

13%

19%

17%

25%

12%

26%

16%

34%

10%

26%

8%

10%

Allerdale (133)

Barrow inFurness (44)

Carlisle (98)

Copeland (70)

Eden (88)

South Lakeland(205)

Don't know Major negative impact Minor negative impact

No impact Minor positive impact Major positive impact


104

9 Business/Organisation Profile

9.1 Key points

The agriculture, forestry and fishing industry accounts for the largest proportion of

businesses and organisations within Cumbria (18%) while slightly fewer (16%) operate

within the wholesale and retail sector.

The majority of businesses and organisations (83%) employ fewer than 10 staff. This

includes 30% of all businesses or organisations that do not have any employees.

Just 6% of all businesses and organisations employ 25 or more staff, which increases

to 30% of businesses or organisations in the education sector.

Just over three-quarters of businesses and organisations (77%) operate from a single

site. This increases to 80% of private sector businesses.

The majority of businesses and organisations (87%) operate within the private sector.

Around one in ten of all businesses or organisations (9%) are a charity/voluntary

organisation, whilst 2% are a local government-financed body and 1% a central

government-financed body.

Seven in ten private sector businesses in Cumbria (70%) have been established for

more than ten years. Of these, most have been established for more than twenty

years (43% of all private sector businesses). Eight per cent of private sector

businesses in Cumbria have been established for less than four years.







area (also around one in five). One in three businesses is located in an urban city and

town.

9.2 Industry

The industrial profile of the sample reflects that of the Cumbrian business population.

This is ensured by weighting the sample data using actual population data.

The following figure summaries the detailed industrial profile, highlighting (as in

previous years) the importance of agriculture, forestry and fishing (18%) and wholesale

and retail (16%) in the area in terms of the number of businesses they represent.

Businesses within the professional, scientific and technical activities sector account for

12% of the population, while construction accounts for one in ten businesses (10%).

Business/Organisation Profile

105

Figure 9.1: Standard Industrial Classification of Businesses (SIC 2007) Unweighted

sample base = 2186

9.3 Employment profile

Reflecting the actual business population profile (which it does because the data is

weighted in order to do so) the majority of businesses (83%) in the sample are small,

employing fewer than ten staff.

Three in ten businesses (30%) have no employees. This proportion increases to 59%

of businesses within the professional, science and technical activities sector; 42%

within business services; 40% within construction and 38% within transport and

communication.

Around one in twenty businesses (6%) have 25 or more staff. This proportion

increases significantly within the education (30%) and health services (20%) sectors.

These larger businesses account for one in eight within manufacturing and public

services (both 13%).

18%

1%

5%

10%

16%

3%

9%

2%

2%

2%

12%

5%

1%

3%

5%

2%

3%

A : Agriculture, forestry and fishing

B, D, E: Mining and quarrying ; Electricity; Water…

C : Manufacturing

F : Construction

G : Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor…

H : Transportation and storage

I : Accommodation and food service activities

J : Information and communication

K : Financial and insurance activities

L : Real estate activities

M : Professional, scientific and technical activities

N : Administrative and support service activities


P : Education

Q : Human health and social work activities

R : Arts, entertainment and recreation

S: Other services


106

Figure 9.2: Number of staff employed (All respondents) Unweighted sample base = 2186

9.4 Number of sites

Just over three-quarters of businesses or organisations (77%) operate from a single

site. This proportion is higher within the private sector (80%) than in the public sector

(65%) or amongst charity/voluntary organisations (58%). It is significantly higher

amongst businesses in rural areas than those in urban areas (81%, compared with

68%). It declines as business size increases: 92% of those with no employees; 77%

of those with 1-9 employees; 57% of those with 10-24 employees; 44% of those with

25+ employees).

Of the remainder, most are branches/subsidiaries of a multi-site organisation (15% of

all businesses), while 8% are a headquarters, increasing to 13% of charities/voluntary

organisations.

Multi-site organisations are most likely to be found within health services (54%);

wholesale and retail (41%); financial intermediation (39%) and public services (33%).

No employees 30%

2-4 employees 36%

5-9 employees 17%

10-24 employees 11% 25-99 employees

5%

100+ employees 1%


107

Figure 9.3: Number of sites, by sector, size and type (all respondents) Unweighted

sample bases in parentheses Figures in bold are significantly greater than average minus the sub group

tested

77%

92%

77%

57%

44%

44%

84%

79%

90%

59%

83%

86%

60%

76%

84%

68%

83%

47%

77%

80%

80%

65%

58%

15%

5%

15%

30%

41%

39%

4%

14%

7%

36%

13%

7%

24%

13%

9%

25%

11%

40%

18%

12%

13%

29%

29%

8%

3%

8%

13%

15%

17%

12%

7%

3%

5%

4%

7%

15%

12%

7%

8%

6%

14%

5%

7%

7%

7%

13%


No employees (396)

1-9 emps (1132)

10-24 emps (394)

25-99 emps (229)

25+ staff (264)


Manufacturing (137)

Construction (135)








Education (154)



Other (106)

Private (1763)

Public (148)

Charity/ Voluntary (275)

Single site This site is a branch/subsidiary This site is HQ


108

9.5 Organisation type

The majority of businesses or organisations operate within the private sector i.e. are

mainly seeking to make a profit (87%).

Around one in ten businesses or organisations (9%) is a charity or voluntary

organisation and this increases to 48% within other services, 46% within health

services and 38% within the arts and recreation sector. The proportion is also higher

than average within the education sector (28%).

Local government financed bodies account for just 2% of businesses or organisations

in Cumbria, but these bodies account for around half the businesses or organisations

in the public services sector (65%), more than a quarter of education organisations

(28%) and one in ten businesses or organisations within the arts and recreation sector

(10%),

Just 1% of businesses or organisations are a central government-financed body and

this proportion increases to nearly one in four businesses or organisations within the

public services sector (23%) and one in seven businesses or organisations in the

education sector (15%).

9.6 Age of business

The majority of private sector businesses (62%) have been established for more than

ten years. Of these, most have been established for more than 20 years (40% of all).

At the other end of the scale, just 4% of private sector businesses have been

established in the last year, with a further 9% that could be classed as young

businesses, having been established for less than 4 years.

New and young businesses are particularly likely to be found in the other services

sector (31%) and twice as likely as average to be found in the accommodation and

food services sector (25%).

Table 9.4: Age of business by district, size and sector (private sector businesses only) Figures in bold are significantly greater than average minus the sub group tested *denotes less than

0.5%

Total

Alle

rdale

Barro

w-in

-

Fu

rness

Carlis

le

Co

pela

nd

Ed

en

So

uth

Lakela

nd

Less than 1 year 1 2 0 1 0 2 2

1 - 3 years 7 7 6 7 5 10 8

4 - 5 years 7 5 10 7 5 5 9

6 - 10 years 15 13 13 17 13 13 16

11 - 20 years 27 29 30 21 28 29 27

More than 20 years 43 44 42 48 50 41 36

Unweighted Bases 1,742 352 104 335 149 257 545


109

Prim

ary

ind

ustrie

s

Man

ufa

ctu

ring

Co

nstru

ctio

n

Wh

ole

sale

& R

eta

il

Acco

mm

od

atio

n a

nd

foo

d s

erv

ices

Tra

nsp

ort a

nd

co

mm

un

icatio

ns

Fin

an

cia

l

inte

rmed

iatio

n

Bu

sin

es

s s

erv

ices

Pro

fes

sio

nal, s

cie

nce

an

d te

ch

nic

al s

erv

ices

Ed

ucatio

n

Health

serv

ice

s

Arts

an

d re

cre

atio

n

Oth

er s

erv

ices

Less than 1 year 0 0 2 2 4 1 0 3 1 0 0 3 4

1 - 3 years 2 10 6 10 14 5 0 10 4 13 14 12 23

4 - 5 years 1 5 4 8 9 8 21 10 12 8 14 11 10

6 - 10 years 6 23 17 14 25 17 9 11 19 11 21 6 20

11 - 20 years 16 24 38 22 29 33 42 30 36 40 28 34 11

More than 20 years 76 38 34 45 20 36 29 37 29 28 23 35 32

Unweighted Bases 168 134 131 438 293 105 20 102 160 31 65 43 52

No

employees 2-9

employees 10-24

employees

25-99 employees

100+ employees

Any employees

Less than 1 year 2 1 1 * 2 1

1 - 3 years 9 6 8 9 9 6

4 - 5 years 8 7 6 2 8 6

6 - 10 years 15 15 13 10 15 14

11 - 20 years 32 25 26 24 32 25

More than 20 years 34 46 47 54 34 47


9.7 Geographical distribution







area (also around one in five). One in three businesses is located in an urban city and

town.


110

Figure 9.5: Geographical distribution of businesses (all respondents) Unweighted

sample bases = 2186

19%

10%

19%

12%

14%

26%

34%

66%

11%

12%

12%

10%

9%

11%

31%

3%

Allerdale

Barrow in Furness

Carlisle

Copeland

Eden

South Lakeland

Urban

Rural

Rural hamlet and isolated dwellings

Rural hamlet and isolated dwellings in a sparsesetting

Rural town and fringe

Rural town and fringe in a sparse setting

Rural village

Rural village in a sparse setting

Urban city and town

Urban city and town in a sparse setting

Appendix: Sector classifications and descriptions

111


Main industry sectors (Standard Industry Classification 2007):

Section

Division

A AGRICULTURE, FORESTRY AND FISHING

01

Crop and animal production, hunting and related service activities

02 Forestry and logging

03 Fishing and aquaculture

B MINING AND QUARRYING

05 Mining of coal and lignite

06 Extraction of crude petroleum and natural gas

07 Mining of metal ores

08 Other mining and quarrying

09 Mining support service activities

C MANUFACTURING

10 Manufacture of food products

11 Manufacture of beverages

12 Manufacture of tobacco products

13 Manufacture of textiles

14 Manufacture of wearing apparel

15 Manufacture of leather and related products

16

Manufacture of wood and of products of wood and cork, except furniture; manufacture of articles of straw and plaiting materials

17 Manufacture of paper and paper products

18 Printing and reproduction of recorded media

19 Manufacture of coke and refined petroleum products

20 Manufacture of chemicals and chemical products

21

Manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products and pharmaceutical preparations

22 Manufacture of rubber and plastic products

23 Manufacture of other non-metallic mineral products

24 Manufacture of basic metals

25

Manufacture of fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment

26 Manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products

27 Manufacture of electrical equipment

28 Manufacture of machinery and equipment n.e.c.

29 Manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers

30 Manufacture of other transport equipment

31 Manufacture of furniture


112

Section

Division

32 Other manufacturing

33 Repair and installation of machinery and equipment

D ELECTRICITY, GAS, STEAM AND AIR CONDITIONING SUPPLY

35 Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply

E WATER SUPPLY; SEWERAGE, WASTE MANAGEMENT AND REMEDIATION ACTIVITIES

36 Water collection, treatment and supply

37 Sewerage

38

Waste collection, treatment and disposal activities; materials recovery

39

Remediation activities and other waste management services.

F CONSTRUCTION

41 Construction of buildings

42 Civil engineering

43 Specialised construction activities

G WHOLESALE AND RETAIL TRADE; REPAIR OF MOTOR VEHICLES AND MOTORCYCLES

45

Wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles

46 Wholesale trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles

47 Retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles

H TRANSPORTATION AND STORAGE

49 Land transport and transport via pipelines

50 Water transport

51 Air transport

52 Warehousing and support activities for transportation

53 Postal and courier activities

I ACCOMMODATION AND FOOD SERVICE ACTIVITIES

55 Accommodation

56 Food and beverage service activities

J INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION

58 Publishing activities

59

Motion picture, video and television programme production, sound recording and music publishing activities

60 Programming and broadcasting activities

61 Telecommunications

62 Computer programming, consultancy and related activities

63 Information service activities

K FINANCIAL AND INSURANCE ACTIVITIES

64

Financial service activities, except insurance and pension funding

65

Insurance, reinsurance and pension funding, except compulsory social security

66

Activities auxiliary to financial services and insurance activities

L REAL ESTATE ACTIVITIES


113

Section

Division

68 Real estate activities

M PROFESSIONAL, SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNICAL ACTIVITIES

69 Legal and accounting activities

70 Activities of head offices; management consultancy activities

71

Architectural and engineering activities; technical testing and analysis

72 Scientific research and development

73 Advertising and market research

74 Other professional, scientific and technical activities

75 Veterinary activities

N ADMINISTRATIVE AND SUPPORT SERVICE ACTIVITIES

77 Rental and leasing activities

78 Employment activities

79

Travel agency, tour operator and other reservation service and related activities

80 Security and investigation activities

81 Services to buildings and landscape activities

82

Office administrative, office support and other business support activities

O PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION AND DEFENCE; COMPULSORY SOCIAL SECURITY

84

Public administration and defence; compulsory social security

P EDUCATION

85 Education

Q HUMAN HEALTH AND SOCIAL WORK ACTIVITIES

86 Human health activities

87 Residential care activities

88 Social work activities without accommodation

R ARTS, ENTERTAINMENT AND RECREATION

90 Creative, arts and entertainment activities

91 Libraries, archives, museums and other cultural activities

92 Gambling and betting activities

93 Sports activities and amusement and recreation activities

S OTHER SERVICE ACTIVITIES

94 Activities of membership organisations

95 Repair of computers and personal and household goods

96 Other personal service activities


114

Priority and supporting sectors:

Sector group description: Definition by division:

Energy 05; 06; 24; 35; 38

Specialist manufacturing 13; 16; 17; 19; 20; 21; 22; 23; 25; 26; 27; 28; 29; 30; 31; 32; 33

Food and drink 10; 11; 12

Visitor economy 55; 56; 79; 90; 91; 93

Construction 41; 42; 43

Digital or creative and media 14; 15; 18; 58; 59; 60; 61; 62; 63; 73; 90

Logistics and transport 49; 50; 51; 52; 53

Business Services 64; 65; 66; 67; 68; 69; 70; 77; 78; 80; 81; 82; 94; 99

Agriculture (land/sea) 01; 02; 03

Appendix: EA Flood Extent Areas

115


The following broadly describes the EA Flood Extent areas that are referenced in this

report. These areas are defined more precisely by postcodes, but these are not listed

here as there are 1,428 of them.

Flood_Extent Flood_Extent_Group

Edenhall and Langwathby Edenhall, Langwathby

Culgaith Edenhall, Langwathby

Kirkby Thore Other Eden

Eamont Bridge and Brougham Eamont Bridge, Brougham

Melkinthorpe Other Eden

Sockbridge Mill Other Eden

Pooley Bridge Pooley Bridge, Glenridding, Patterdale

Sandwick Pooley Bridge, Glenridding, Patterdale

Askham Other Eden

Bampton and Bampton Grange Other Eden

Morland Other Eden

Kings Meaburn Other Eden

Newby Other Eden

Maulds Meaburn Other Eden

Crosby Ravensworth Other Eden

Shap Other Eden

Tebay Other Eden

Newton Reigny Greystoke, Newton Reigny, Plumpton

Greystoke and Little Blencow Greystoke, Newton Reigny, Plumpton

Little Blencow Greystoke, Newton Reigny, Plumpton

Patterdale Pooley Bridge, Glenridding, Patterdale

Hartsop Pooley Bridge, Glenridding, Patterdale

Glenridding Pooley Bridge, Glenridding, Patterdale

Brockley Moor Plumpton Greystoke, Newton Reigny, Plumpton

Holme Head Greystoke, Newton Reigny, Plumpton

Plumpton Greystoke, Newton Reigny, Plumpton

Carlisle Carlisle, Crosby, Warwick Bridge

Keswick Keswick, Braithwaite, Portinscale

Chapel Other Allerdale

Bassenthwaite Other Allerdale

Threlkeld Other Eden

Portinscale Keswick, Braithwaite, Portinscale

Braithwaite Keswick, Braithwaite, Portinscale

Grange Other Allerdale

Lodore Other Allerdale

Rosthwaite Other Allerdale


116


Seatoller Other Allerdale

Cockermouth Cockermouth

Lorton Other Allerdale

Camerton Maryport to Workington

Barepot Maryport to Workington

Workington Maryport to Workington

Allonby Wigton, Aspatria, Abbeytown

Allerby Bullgill Wigton, Aspatria, Abbeytown

Maryport Maryport to Workington

Flimby Maryport to Workington

Appleby Appleby

Bolton Other Eden

Colby Other Eden

Great Ormside Other Eden

Great Asby Other Eden

Coupland Other Eden

Sandford Other Eden

Warcop Other Eden

Dry Beck Other Eden

Kirkby Stephen Kirkby Stephen, Soulby

Brough Other Eden

Newbiggin-on-lune Other Eden

Ravenstonedale Other Eden

Soulby Kirkby Stephen, Soulby

Warwick Bridge Carlisle, Crosby, Warwick Bridge

Armathwaite Other Eden

Stockdalewath Carlisle, Crosby, Warwick Bridge

Sebergham Other Allerdale

Aspatria Wigton, Aspatria, Abbeytown

Hayton Wigton, Aspatria, Abbeytown

Westnewton Wigton, Aspatria, Abbeytown

Blennerhasset and Baggrow Wigton, Aspatria, Abbeytown

Abbeytown Wigton, Aspatria, Abbeytown

Caldbeck Other Allerdale

Millhouse Other Allerdale

Wigton Wigton, Aspatria, Abbeytown

Windermere, Ambleside, Newby Bridge Windermere, Ambleside, Newby Bridge

Backbarrow Other South Lakeland

Coniston Other South Lakeland

Hawkshead Other South Lakeland

Rydal Grasmere, Rydal

Grasmere Grasmere, Rydal


117


Troutbeck Bridge Windermere, Ambleside, Newby Bridge

Milnthorpe Other South Lakeland

Beetham Other South Lakeland

Sedgwick Other South Lakeland

Burneside Kendal, Burneside, Staveley

Kendal Kendal, Burneside, Staveley

Staveley Kendal, Burneside, Staveley

For more information about the 2015/16 Business Survey, please contact:

Ginny Murphy

Senior Analyst

Cumbria County Council / Cumbria LEP

Tel: 07826 859026

Email: [email protected]

A copy of the full report can be downloaded from the Cumbria Intelligence Observatory

website here:

http://www.cumbriaobservatory.org.uk/economy/CumbriaBusinessSurveys.asp

mailto:[email protected]

http://www.cumbriaobservatory.org.uk/economy/CumbriaBusinessSurveys.asp


118

Appendix: Statement of Terms

Compliance with International Standards

BMG complies with the International Standard for Quality Management Systems

requirements (ISO 9001:2008) and the International Standard for Market, opinion and social

research service requirements (ISO 20252:2012) and The International Standard for

Information Security Management ISO 27001:2013.

Interpretation and publication of results

The interpretation of the results as reported in this document pertain to the research problem

and are supported by the empirical findings of this research project and, where applicable,

by other data. These interpretations and recommendations are based on empirical findings

and are distinguishable from personal views and opinions.

BMG will not publish any part of these results without the written and informed consent of the

client.

Ethical practice

BMG promotes ethical practice in research: We conduct our work responsibly and in light of

the legal and moral codes of society.

We have a responsibility to maintain high scientific standards in the methods employed in

the collection and dissemination of data, in the impartial assessment and dissemination of

findings and in the maintenance of standards commensurate with professional integrity.

We recognise we have a duty of care to all those undertaking and participating in research

and strive to protect subjects from undue harm arising as a consequence of their

participation in research. This requires that subjects’ participation should be as fully informed

as possible and no group should be disadvantaged by routinely being excluded from

consideration. All adequate steps shall be taken by both agency and client to ensure that the

identity of each respondent participating in the research is protected.

With more than 25 years’ experience, BMG Research has established a strong reputation for delivering high quality research and consultancy.

BMG serves both the public and the private sector, providing market and customer insight which is vital in the development of plans, the support of campaigns and the evaluation of performance.

Innovation and development is very much at the heart of our business, and considerable attention is paid to the utilisation of the most up to date technologies and information systems to ensure that market and customer intelligence is widely shared.

Cumbria Business Survey 2015/16 – Final Report...Cumbria Business Survey 2015/16 – Final Report...

Documents

Transcript of Cumbria Business Survey 2015/16 – Final Report...Cumbria Business Survey 2015/16 – Final Report...