Cultivating Food Cultivating Food SecuritySecurity

State of the World State of the World

Worldwatch InstituteWorldwatch Institute

SecuritySecurity

What forces are changing food security today and in the future?

Commonly perceived threats include—water and land resources, population growth and social disruption

New emerging threats include— disease, climate change, diversity loss and bio-terror

© Digital Vision

© USDA

Commonly Perceived ThreatsCommonly Perceived Threats

• Water availability• Land distribution• Environmental degradation• Human population growth• Social disruption

© Digital Vision

WaterWater

– Falling water tables– Droughts– Diversion for urban

needs and power generation

– Pollution

© Photos/Digital Vision

WaterWater

Agriculture accounts for 70% of global water use and as much as 90% in many developing countries

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1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000Source: Shiklomanov

Cu

bic

Kilo

me

ters Agricultural

Industrial Municipal

Land Availability and Land Availability and Environmental DegradationEnvironmental Degradation

80% of arable land worldwide has lost productivity because of soil degradation

© USDA

PopulationPopulation

What can we expect as the world population grows to over 7 billion people?

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1

2

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7

8

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

Billion people

Social DisruptionSocial Disruption

Conflicts often result in cross-border migrations, lost harvests, and infrastructure collapse—disrupting food security

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20

40

60

80

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Source: AKUF

Number

WarsWars and Armed Conflicts

© IRIN

Emerging Security ThreatsEmerging Security Threats

• Loss of agricultural diversity

• Emergence of new diseases

• Food borne illnesses

• Food bio-terror

• Climate change

© WHO

DiversityDiversity

• Genetic information and options• Resilience by spreading risks

across a range of species• A varied diet and nutrients

What does diversity provide?

© USDA

© Corbin

Plant DiversityPlant Diversity

• 7,000 plants are used for human consumption

• 200 are domesticated• 12 contribute 75% of

global intake of plant-derived calories

© FAO

Meat DiversityMeat Diversity

– 95% of world consumption of livestock protein is from pigs, poultry, and cattle

– There are about 1,000 commercial fish species, but in aquaculture fewer than 10 species dominate global production

© USDA © Digital Vision © USDA

Diversity & Industrial Diversity & Industrial AgricultureAgriculture

• New commercial varieties are replacing traditional, highly variable farmer varieties

• Vital traditional knowledge about production and adaptation of traditional varieties is disappearing

How has industrial agriculture affected diversity?

© US/ARS

Diversity—What’s Been Lost?Diversity—What’s Been Lost?

FAO estimates that 75% of agricultural diversity was lost during the 20th century

• In 50 years, wheat cultivars in China dropped from 10,000 to 1,000

• 90% of cabbage, maize and pea varieties no longer exist

• 30% of livestock breeds risk extinction

© CGIAR

© FAO

GMOsGMOs

What are Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs) in agriculture?

Plant, animal, and microbial cells are genetically engineered to create specific characteristics such as pest resistance, herbicide resistance, increased milk production, increased shelf life of vegetables, and new plants and livestock for specific environments.

GMO TechnologyGMO Technology

What are common GMOs in the food supply?

• Herbicide and pest resistant crops like Roundup Ready soybeans

• BST an engineered hormone used to increase milk yields in dairy cows

• Tomato genes engineered for disease resistance and long shelf life

© USDA

GMO Risk FactorsGMO Risk Factors

What are some of the major GMO risk factors?

• Contamination of Wild Species– Foreign gene sequences pose unknown risks

from cross pollination between conventional crops and their wild relatives

• Trojan Gene Effect– An invaded wild population perishes because of

the spread of transgenic organisms• Pharm Crops

– Insertion of genes into plants to create drugs and industrial chemicals poses risk of genes finding a way from pharm crops into food crops

GMOs on a Global ScaleGMOs on a Global Scale

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60

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1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Source: ISAAA

Mill

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Global Area Planted to Transgenic Crop, 1996-2003

GMOs and HungerGMOs and Hunger

Can biotechnology and GMOs solve world hunger?

Some agricultural scientists hope that GMOs will produce higher than usual yields with less inputs, better yields in a wider range of environments, and more nutritious products

Hunger is caused by inequalities in purchasing power and the lack of access to land and resources rather than a global shortage of food

BUT

Diversity & Food SecurityDiversity & Food Security

• Future options are narrowed due to loss of genetic material

• Increased susceptibility to disease and pests because of mono-cropping and a limited number of high-producing livestock breeds

• Loss of self-sufficiency among farmers on marginal lands who rely on crop diversity to maintain local food production

What do we risk if agricultural diversity is lost?

© USDA

Emerging DiseasesEmerging Diseases

• Avian flu• Nipah virus• Mad cow disease• Foodborne pathogens• AIDS/HIV in humans

The nature of diseases affecting crops and livestock have changed within the last century

© Photos/EBI bioinformatics

Avian InfluenzaAvian Influenza

• 6 billion birds are raised for food in East and SE Asia

• More than 140 million birds in Asia were killed to control the avian virus

• Avian flu jumped the species barrier in 1997 and a virulent strain killed 30 people

• The virus is spreading to other regions of the world

Avian Flu & SecurityAvian Flu & Security

• Concentration of animals in factory farms and genetic uniformity of livestock may have facilitated the emergence of the virus

• Current recommendations to restrict free-range poultry could drive thousands of small producers out of business and eliminate traditional means of food production

© FAO

© USDA

Nipah virusNipah virusNipah is a zoonose – a disease that jumps from animals to humans

– Nipah was first discovered in 1997 at a massive Malaysian pig farm

– Origin of virus may have been fruit bats fleeing forest fires in Indonesia and settling in trees over large pig farms

– 100 people died in Malaysia in 1997 and Nipah struck in Bangladesh in 2004 killing 74% of its victims

© USDA

Nipah Virus

Scientists predict that as industrial agriculture continues to move into tropical environments, the risk of Nipah-like viruses and other diseases that can jump the species barrier will grow.

© USDA

Mad Cow DiseaseMad Cow Disease

• BSE is spread by the recycling of animal protein and bone meal into livestock feed

• Humans can contract Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease from eating infected meat

• Many countries lack the necessary regulations and political will to prevent the disease

BSE (Bovine spongiform encephalopathy) or Mad Cow Disease is caused by prions that destroy proteins in brain tissue

© USDA

BSE & SecurityBSE & Security• Since 1986 BSE has been found in at least 34

countries

• The first case of BSE in the U.S. was discovered in 2003

• In Italy a new form of BSE (BASE) appeared in cows showing no symptoms

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1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

HIV/AIDSHIV/AIDS

Source: UNAIDS

Millions

AIDS Deaths

HIV Infections

• In 2004, nearly 78 million people were HIV infected

• AIDS is the leading cause of death worldwide for people ages 15 to 49

HIV/AIDSHIV/AIDS

•The seven most seriously AIDS-affected countries—all in sub-Saharan Africa—now lose as much as 10-18 percent of their working-age adults every five years, mainly to this disease.

•What does this mean for food security?

• Loss of knowledge and skills in traditional farming systems

• Loss of work force with no one available to plant, tend and harvest food

Foodborne illnessesFoodborne illnesses

Foodborne illnesses are the most common health problem worldwide

– WHO reports episodes could be 300-350 time more frequent that reported

What contributes to the spread of these illnesses?

Foodborne illnessesFoodborne illnesses

• Concentration of processing and transport– 44 million cattle, sheep and pigs are traded

worldwide each year– Transport of cattle from feed yards to

slaughterhouses increases prevalence of salmonella

• Antibiotic misuse– Residues from antibiotics used on livestock end up

in food and the environment leading to antibiotic resistance in humans and animals

• Factory farms– Crowded and unsanitary conditions exacerbate rapid

movement of diseases such as E. coli

Factory FarmsFactory Farms

• 43% of global meat production occurs on factory farms

• Factory farms are spreading to developing countries

Factory farms create a variety of problems

– Contamination– Concentration– Cheap meat

© D. Nierenberg

© D. Nierenberg

BioterrorBioterror

• Livestock industry• Transportation and

movement• Processed food

distribution• Lack of safety

regulations • Global trade

What could be targets for bioterrorists?

© USDA

© USDA

BioterrorBioterror

– 1984 Oregon religious cult spiked restaurant salad bars with Salmonellae

Has a bioterror attack already occurred in the US?

© Stock.xchng

Climate ChangeClimate Change

• Rainfall, drought, storms

• Crop growth and yields

• Irrigation demands

• Pests and disease

• Pollination

Climate changes can impact temperatures, precipitation and weather events which can in turn impact:

© Digital Vision

Climate ChangeClimate Change

13.0

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1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

Degrees Celsius

Average Change in Global Temperature

Climate InstabilityClimate Instability

Temperature instability and food production:

• More extreme swings in climate are predicted—dry to wet, hot to cold

• Higher maximum temperatures and more hot days

• Higher minimum temperature and fewer cold days

• More variable and extreme rainfall events, floods, and storms

• Increased summer drying and associated risk of drought in continental interiors

Temperature ShiftsTemperature Shifts

Temperature ShiftsTemperature Shifts

• Rice, wheat and maize– Grain yields are likely to decline 10% for every one

degree (Celsius) increase over 30 years• Pollination

– CO2 and increased temperature may promote lush growth but are deadly at the pollination stage reducing some yields by 30%

• Disease– Warm wet weather promotes diseases like blight

• Pests– Pests survive warmer winters and a longer growing

seasons mean increased incidence of pest attacks

Developing CountriesDeveloping Countries

• farmers in the tropics are already near the temperature limits for most major crops

• these farmers have less money, more limited irrigation technology and no weather tracking systems

• crop failures push many farmers off the land and into cities

Climate change will hit farmers in developing countries the hardest

Climate & SecurityClimate & Security

Climate change scenarios:

• Anarchy as countries defend and secure dwindling food and water supplies

• Warming and ice cap melting could disrupt oceanic heat transfer and plunge N. America and Europe into a mini-Ice Age

• The sudden change in climate 8,200 years ago that brought widespread crop failure, famine, disease and mass migration of populations could be repeated

New ApproachesNew Approaches

• Focus on conceptual and political change in addition to technological fixes

– International treaties such as:• Treaty on Plant Genetic Resources• Treaty on livestock breeds

– International cooperation by health organizations• WHO and FAO programs that monitor

diseases

What can be done to cultivate food security?

Farmer’s RoleFarmer’s Role

– Maintain indigenous breeds– Preserve plant diversity– Use less energy and encourage self

reliance for fertility inputs– Develop agroforestry and mixed crop

plantings

• Support and train farmers to:

© FAO

© FAO

Seed SavingSeed Saving

– Today, 1.4 billion people rely on seed saving to continue farming, this has always been a matter of survival. The practice of selection by small scale farmers has created a vast diversity of varieties

• Promote seed saving and gene banks

© CGIAR © USDA

© FAO

Gene BanksGene Banks

CropAccessions in Gene Banks

Share of Landraces Collected

Wheat 850,000 90

Rice 420,000 90

Corn 262,000 95

Sorghum 168,500 80

Soybeans 176,000 70

Common Beans 268,500 50

Potatoes 31,000 80-90

Cassava 28,000 35

Tomatoes 77,500 90

Squashes, Cucumbers, Gourds 30,000 50

Onions, Garlic 25,000 70

Sugarcane 27,500 70

Cotton 48,500 75

© Photos/USDA

ChoicesChoices

Farmers are not the only ones with a stake in a more secure food system

The public needs to be committed to farms that can withstand climate change and new diseases and that yield food that is safe to eat

Worldwatch InstituteWorldwatch Institute

Further information and references for the material in this presentation are available in the Worldwatch Institute’s publication “State of the World 2005”

www.worldwatch.org

This presentation is based on Chapter 4 “Cultivating Food Security” authored by:

Danielle Nierenberg and Brian Halweil