CT 2nd & 3rd Congressional District

8/8/2019 CT 2nd & 3rd Congressional District

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FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Contact:Kevin [email protected]

DELAURO, COURTNEY SAFE Incumbents breaking away from challengers

HARTFORD, CT (October 8, 2010) - Democratic U.S. Representatives Rosa DeLauro and Joe Courtney have comfortable leads

against their Republican opponents according to a poll released today on Connecticuts 2 nd and 3 rd congressional districts.

Representative DeLauro has 58.1 percent to Republican Jerry Labriolas 36.5 percent and Representative Courtney has 55.0 percent to

Republican Janet Peckinpaughs 41.3 percent.

The polls were commissioned by ctcapitolreport.com and conducted by the Merriman River Group on October 3-5, 2010. Inthe 2 nd congressional district, 545 voters were surveyed of which 3.7 percent are still unsure of whom they will support. There is a

margin of error of +/- 4.2 percent.

In the 3 rd congressional district, 513 voters were surveyed and 5.5 percent are still unsure of whom they will support. There is

a margin of error of +/- 4.3 percent.


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888-450-VOTE www.merrimanriver.com

Traditionally, Connecticuts 2 nd, 4 th and 5 th congressional districts have been considered potential swing seats, says the polls

Executive Director, Matthew Fitch. In a year that is shaping up to be challenging for Democrats nationally, the Democratic

incumbents in the 4th

and 5th

are locked in tough challenges, with the 4th

too close to call and the 5th

leaning Republican.In the Second, however, Democratic incumbent Joe Courtney seems to be defying the trend, holding a secure 14-point lead

over Republican challenger Janet Peckinpaugh. Much of Courtneys success in this poll is due to him being able to do what fellow

incumbents Himes and Murphy have not: make the race more than a straight referendum on President Obama. While supporters of

Obama back Courtney by a wide 90-8 margin, Courtney is also getting slightly over 20 percent of those voters who disapprove of, or

are unsure about, Obamas job performance. In a district where the Presidents approval rating is close to 50-50, that higher level of

support from Obama opponents is worth a five point swing in both directions and turns what could be a relatively close race into a

comfortable lead for Courtney.

Fitch added, Women voters dont seem to be connecting with Peckinpaugh. She is being trounced by a 63-32 margin among

women despite holding an 8 percent lead among men. Thats bad news in a district where 55 percent of the voters on Election Day are

women.

The safest congressional incumbent in Connecticut this year is Rosa DeLauro, remarked Fitch. She enjoys a lead in excess

of 20 points and is likely to increase it given her financial advantage and strong campaigning. She is a rare Democrat this year that

leads among unaffiliated voters. She is getting 84 percent of Democrats in this Democratic district, and may be the only Congressional

candidate to break 60 percent this year.

About CTCapitolReport.com


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CT Capitol Report is published and edited by veteran political professional Tom Dudchik. Since its launch in 2009 its readership hasgrown exponentially and it is widely considered the most comprehensive website for Connecticut political news.

About Merriman River Group

With offices in Hamden, CT and Los Angeles, CA, Merriman River Group is a full service consulting organization specializing inelection supervision and administration, public opinion research, and communication services. In 2010, Merriman River Grouplaunched their NexGen IVR polling system, which offers professional grade polling and analysis with reduced costs and faster completion time. NexGen IVR has been used in public and private polling from New England to Hawaii this year, with accuracy far exceeding traditional polling methods. For more information on Merriman River Group, please visit www.merrimanriver.com .

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CT 2 nd Congressional DistrictMargin of Error = 4.2%

Frequency Percent

Congress:Courtney 300 55.0

Congress:Peckinpaugh 225 41.3

Congress:Unsure 20 3.7

Valid

Total 545 100.0


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Congress * Gender Crosstabulation

Gender

Gender:female Gender:male

Gender:Not

Reported Total

Count 192 101 7 300Congress:Courtney

% within Gender 63.0% 45.1% 43.8% 55.0%

Count 98 119 8 225Congress:Peckinpaugh

% within Gender 32.1% 53.1% 50.0% 41.3%

Count 15 4 1 20

Congress

Congress:Unsure

% within Gender 4.9% 1.8% 6.3% 3.7%

Count 305 224 16 545Total

% within Gender 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%


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Gender * Congress Crosstabulation

Congress

Congress:Courtney Congress:Peckinpaugh Congress:Unsure Total

Count 192 98 15 305Gender:female

% within Congress 64.0% 43.6% 75.0% 56.0%

Count 101 119 4 224Gender:male

% within Congress 33.7% 52.9% 20.0% 41.1%

Count 7 8 1 16

Gender

Gender:Not Reported

% within Congress 2.3% 3.6% 5.0% 2.9%


% within Congress 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%


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Congress * Party Crosstabulation

Party

1.

Party:Democrat

2.

Party:Republican

3.

Party:Independent

9.

Party:Unsure

99. Party:Not

Reported Total

Count 163 30 81 4 22 300Congress:Courtney

% within Party 90.6% 21.9% 45.8% 50.0% 51.2% 55.0%

Count 17 103 83 4 18 225Congress:Peckinpaugh

% within Party 9.4% 75.2% 46.9% 50.0% 41.9% 41.3%

Count 0 4 13 0 3 20

Congress

Congress:Unsure

% within Party .0% 2.9% 7.3% .0% 7.0% 3.7%

Count 180 137 177 8 43 545Total

% within Party 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%


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Congress * Tea Party Crosstabulation

Tea Party

1. TeaParty:Yes 2. TeaParty:No

9.

TeaParty:Unsure

99.TeaParty:Not

Reported Total

Count 15 254 10 21 300Congress:Courtney

% within Tea Party 15.3% 67.7% 32.3% 51.2% 55.0%

Count 80 109 19 17 225Congress:Peckinpaugh

% within Tea Party 81.6% 29.1% 61.3% 41.5% 41.3%

Count 3 12 2 3 20

Congress

Congress:Unsure

% within Tea Party 3.1% 3.2% 6.5% 7.3% 3.7%

Count 98 375 31 41 545Total

% within Tea Party 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%


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Congress * Obama Crosstabulation

Obama

1.

Obama:Approve

strongly

2.

Obama:Approve

somewhat

3.

Obama:Disapprove

somewhat

4.

Obama:Disapprove

strongly

9.

Obama:Unsure Total

Count 158 86 21 30 5 300Congress:Courtney

% within Obama 92.4% 85.1% 38.2% 14.5% 45.5% 55.0%

Count 11 11 33 167 3 225Congress:Peckinpaugh

% within Obama 6.4% 10.9% 60.0% 80.7% 27.3% 41.3%

Count 2 4 1 10 3 20

Congress

Congress:Unsure

% within Obama 1.2% 4.0% 1.8% 4.8% 27.3% 3.7%

Count 171 101 55 207 11 545Total

% within Obama 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%


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Congress * Obama_Short Crosstabulation

Obama_Short

Obama:Approve Obama:Disapprove Obama:Unsure Total

Count 244 51 5 300Congress:Courtney

% within Obama_Short 89.7% 19.5% 45.5% 55.0%

Count 22 200 3 225Congress:Peckinpaugh


Count 6 11 3 20

Congress

Congress:Unsure





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Obama * Congress Crosstabulation

Congress


Count 158 11 2 1711. Obama:Approve strongly

% within Congress 52.7% 4.9% 10.0% 31.4%

Count 86 11 4 1012. Obama:Approve

somewhat % within Congress 28.7% 4.9% 20.0% 18.5%

Count 21 33 1 553. Obama:Disapprove



strongly % within Congress 10.0% 74.2% 50.0% 38.0%

Count 5 3 3 11

Obama

9. Obama:Unsure

% within Congress 1.7% 1.3% 15.0% 2.0%


% within Congress 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%


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Obama_Short * Congress Crosstabulation

Congress


Count 244 22 6 272Obama:Approve

% within Congress 81.3% 9.8% 30.0% 49.9%

Count 51 200 11 262Obama:Disapprove

% within Congress 17.0% 88.9% 55.0% 48.1%

Count 5 3 3 11

Obama_Short

Obama:Unsure

% within Congress 1.7% 1.3% 15.0% 2.0%


% within Congress 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%


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CT 3 rd Congressional DistrictMargin of Error = 4.3%

Frequency Percent

Congress:DeLauro 298 58.1

Congress:Labriola 187 36.5

Congress:Unsure 28 5.5

Valid

Total 513 100.0


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Congress * Gender Crosstabulation

Gender

Gender:female Gender:male

Gender:Not

Reported Total

Count 200 91 7 298Congress:DeLauro

% within Gender 63.5% 48.7% 63.6% 58.1%

Count 96 87 4 187Congress:Labriola

% within Gender 30.5% 46.5% 36.4% 36.5%

Count 19 9 0 28

Congress

Congress:Unsure

% within Gender 6.0% 4.8% .0% 5.5%


% within Gender 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%


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Gender * Congress Crosstabulation

Congress

Congress:DeLauro Congress:Labriola Congress:Unsure Total

Count 200 96 19 315Gender:female

% within Congress 67.1% 51.3% 67.9% 61.4%

Count 91 87 9 187Gender:male

% within Congress 30.5% 46.5% 32.1% 36.5%

Count 7 4 0 11

Gender

Gender:Not Reported

% within Congress 2.3% 2.1% .0% 2.1%


% within Congress 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%


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Congress * Party Crosstabulation

Party1.

Party:Democrat

2.

Party:Republican

3.

Party:Independent

9.

Party:Unsure

99. Party:Not

Reported Total

Count 168 22 75 4 29 298Congress:DeLauro

% within Party 84.0% 20.0% 51.0% 44.4% 61.7% 58.1%

Count 25 85 64 0 13 187Congress:Labriola

% within Party 12.5% 77.3% 43.5% .0% 27.7% 36.5%

Count 7 3 8 5 5 28

Congress

Congress:Unsure

% within Party 3.5% 2.7% 5.4% 55.6% 10.6% 5.5%

Count 200 110 147 9 47 513Total

% within Party 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%


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Congress * Tea Party Crosstabulation

Tea Party

1. TeaParty:Yes 2. TeaParty:No

9.

TeaParty:Unsure

99.TeaParty:Not

Reported Total

Count 11 242 16 29 298Congress:DeLauro

% within Tea Party 15.1% 70.8% 31.4% 61.7% 58.1%

Count 62 88 24 13 187Congress:Labriola

% within Tea Party 84.9% 25.7% 47.1% 27.7% 36.5%

Count 0 12 11 5 28

Congress

Congress:Unsure

% within Tea Party .0% 3.5% 21.6% 10.6% 5.5%

Count 73 342 51 47 513Total

% within Tea Party 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%


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Congress * Obama Crosstabulation

Obama1.

Obama:Approve

strongly

2.

Obama:Approve

somewhat

3.

Obama:Disapprove

somewhat

4.

Obama:Disapprove

strongly

9.

Obama:Unsure Total

Count 160 81 29 20 8 298Congress:DeLauro

% within Obama 93.6% 81.0% 44.6% 12.5% 47.1% 58.1%

Count 5 15 33 134 0 187Congress:Labriola

% within Obama 2.9% 15.0% 50.8% 83.8% .0% 36.5%

Count 6 4 3 6 9 28

Congress

Congress:Unsure

% within Obama 3.5% 4.0% 4.6% 3.8% 52.9% 5.5%

Count 171 100 65 160 17 513Total

% within Obama 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%


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Congress * Obama_Short Crosstabulation

Obama_ShortObama:Approve Obama:Disapprove Obama:Unsure Total

Count 241 49 8 298Congress:DeLauro


Count 20 167 0 187Congress:Labriola

% within Obama_Short 7.4% 74.2% .0% 36.5%

Count 10 9 9 28

Congress

Congress:Unsure





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Obama * Congress Crosstabulation

CongressCongress:DeLauro Congress:Labriola Congress:Unsure Total

Count 160 5 6 1711. Obama:Approve strongly

% within Congress 53.7% 2.7% 21.4% 33.3%

Count 81 15 4 1002. Obama:Approve





strongly % within Congress 6.7% 71.7% 21.4% 31.2%

Count 8 0 9 17

Obama

9. Obama:Unsure

% within Congress 2.7% .0% 32.1% 3.3%


% within Congress 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%


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Obama_Short * Congress Crosstabulation

CongressCongress:DeLauro Congress:Labriola Congress:Unsure Total

Count 241 20 10 271Obama:Approve

% within Congress 80.9% 10.7% 35.7% 52.8%

Count 49 167 9 225Obama:Disapprove

% within Congress 16.4% 89.3% 32.1% 43.9%

Count 8 0 9 17

Obama_Short

Obama:Unsure

% within Congress 2.7% .0% 32.1% 3.3%


% within Congress 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

CT 2nd & 3rd Congressional District

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