csx Dahlman Rose Conference 09.11.08

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Dahlman Rose Global Transportation Conference September 2008 Dahlman Rose Global Transportation Conference September 2008

Transcript of csx Dahlman Rose Conference 09.11.08

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Dahlman Rose Global Transportation Conference

September 2008

Dahlman Rose Global Transportation Conference

September 2008

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Forward-Looking DisclosureForward-Looking Disclosure

This information and other statements by the company contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act with respect to, among other items: projections and estimates of earnings, revenues, cost-savings, expenses, or other financial items; statements of management’s plans, strategies and objectives for future operation, and management’s expectations as to future performance and operations and the time by which objectives will be achieved; statements concerning proposed new products and services; and statements regarding future economic, industry or market conditions or performance. Forward-looking statements are typically identified by words or phrases such as “believe,” “expect,” “anticipate,” “project,” “estimate” and similar expressions.

Forward-looking statements speak only as of the date they are made, and the company undertakes no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statement. If the company does update any forward-looking statement, no inference should be drawn that the company will make additional updates with respect to that statement or any other forward-looking statements.

Forward-looking statements are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties, and actual performance or results could differ materially from that anticipated by these forward-looking statements. Factors that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated by these forward-looking statements include, among others: (i) the company’s success in implementing its financial and operational initiatives; (ii) changes in domestic or international economic or business conditions, including those affecting the rail industry (such as the impact of industry competition, conditions, performance and consolidation); (iii) legislative or regulatory changes; (iv) the inherent business risks associated with safety and security; and (v) the outcome of claims and litigation involving or affecting the company.

Other important assumptions and factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward- looking statements are specified in the company’s SEC reports, accessible on the SEC’s website at www.sec.gov and the company’s website at: www.investors.csx.com

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Current CSX environmentCurrent CSX environment

Strong earnings growth continues at record levels— Yields supported by stable service platform and evolving marketplace— Productivity driving greater efficiency and margin expansion

Secular strength overcoming effects of softer economy— Diverse business portfolio offsets weakness in housing and auto markets— Substantial earnings growth continues even in this environment

Long-term railroad environment remains strong

Fuel prices provide a tailwind for third quarter earnings

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Earnings and margin growth remains significantEarnings and margin growth remains significant

Comparable Operating Income in Millions

$1,981

$2,233

$2,495

2006 2007 LTM

ComparableOperating Margin

20.7%

22.3%

23.3%

2006 2007 LTM

Note: See GAAP reconciliation; peer group includes BNI, CNI, CP, NSC and UNP

CSX Peer Group (indexed)

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Management actions driving margin expansionManagement actions driving margin expansion

Comparable Operating Margin

11.6%13.3%

18.1%

20.7%22.3% 23.3%

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 LTM

Realigned network with disciplined investment

Focused on process excellence teams and value pricing

Restructured management Developed a culture of accountability

Rolled out ONE Plan Aligned resources with ONE Plan

Rolled out TSI initiative

Note: See GAAP reconciliation

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+ EvolvingEvolvingMarketplaceMarketplace

CSX Territory

Increasing HighwayCongestion

Strong service and market environment driving priceStrong service and market environment driving price

On-timeOriginations

StrongStrongServiceService

51%

76% 79% 79%

2005 2006 2007 LTM

PricingPricingOpportunityOpportunity

“Same Store Sales”Price Increase

5.7%

6.6% 6.7% 6.6%

2005 2006 2007 LTM

Pricing environment favorable through 2008+

Pricing environment Pricing environment favorable through 2008+favorable through 2008+

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$82 billion ofvalue created$82 billion ofvalue created

Big-6 CapitalizationDollars in Billions

$75

$157

2004 2008

Rail pricing is still in the early stages of recoveryRail pricing is still in the early stages of recovery

Source: Association of American Railroads; Big-6 Capitalization reflects market performance through September 5, 2008

Inflation-Adjusted PricingIndexed: 1981 = 100

100

4051

1981 2004 2008

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Housing and automotive sectors remain weak . . .Housing and automotive sectors remain weak . . .

Housing Starts

5.2% 6.3%

(12.6%)

(26.0%)

(15.8%)

2004 2005 2006 2007 LTM

Auto Production

(0.7%)

(0.0%)

(3.1%)(1.5%)

(18.5%)

2004 2005 2006 2007 LTMSource: Global Insight, August 2008

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. . . although ton miles and operations remain stable. . . although ton miles and operations remain stable

Velocity (mph)

19.2 19.9 20.8 20.9

2005 2006 2007 LTM

Dwell Time (hours)29.7

25.1 23.2 22.7

2005 2006 2007 LTM

Revenue Ton Milesand Volume

247.4253.0 247.9 249.0

7,350 7,358

7,1167,026

2005 2006 2007 LTM

RTM's (billions) Volume (000)

1010

.

.

.

Diversity of business is key to secular strengthDiversity of business is key to secular strength

2008 Year-to-Date Revenue

Note: Year-to-date data through June 2008

Coal29%

Food & Consumer4%

Forest7% Emerging Mkts

6%

Automotive7%

Intermodal13%

Chemicals13%

Agriculture9%

Phosphates5%

Metals7%

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Export coal growing 50% to 30 million tons in 2008Export coal growing 50% to 30 million tons in 2008

Newport News— Source: Central Appalachia— 2008 estimate: 19 million tons

Baltimore— Source: Northern Appalachia— 2008 estimate: 5 million tons

Mobile— Source: Southern Appalachia— 2008 estimate: 6 million tons

Baltimore

Newport News

Mobile

Coal Reserves

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Global influences are driving long-term demandGlobal influences are driving long-term demand

• China evolved from being an exporter to an importer of coal

• Australian and South African coal being consumed by China

• Ocean freight rates have increased significantly

• Foreign exchange rates favor the U.S. dollar

Mining Regions Exports Increase Exports Decrease

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Reinvestment Profile

Returns by Car Type

Stra

tegi

c O

wne

rshi

p V

alue

Long-term drivers support coal car investmentLong-term drivers support coal car investment

Coal fleet continually exceeds reinvestment hurdle rates

Strategic ownership value is high for this business

Investing in additional coal car capacity— $70 million in 2008— $60 million in 2009

Projected IRR21%Bottom Dump Coal Cars

Bathtub Gondola Coal Cars

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Macro trends drive long-term opportunity for CSXMacro trends drive long-term opportunity for CSX

Trucking industry is challengedHighway congestion worsening; fuel costs and environmental advantages favor rail

Global consumption is risingPopulation, globalization drive demand for energy, food and other goods

Rail is valued by the publicPublic funding increasing for expanded and improved service products

East Coast ports are growingPanama Canal expansion and increased Suez Canal trade flows create opportunity

TodayToday

CSX Territory

2020 2020

Source: USDOT FHWA Freight Analysis Framework

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National Gateway enhances intermodal networkNational Gateway enhances intermodal network

Links major metropolitan markets with key ports

Ohio transfer yard brings service to major new markets

Expedites traffic through Chicago and St Louis

Public-private partnership with CSX, federal and states

New Orleans

St Louis

Memphis

National Gateway Project with Double-stackExisting/Planned Double-stack ClearanceHoward Street Tunnel Clearance Restriction

Intermodal Network

Central Florida

Chicago

New York

VA Ports

Wilmington

Baltimore

Boston

Atlanta

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FCF Before DividendsDollars in Millions

$376

$1,000

2007 Actual 2008 Forecast

2008 Financial Update . . . 2008 Financial Update . . .

FCF before dividends increases to about $1.0 billion

Capital spending increases to $1.75 billion; includes coal cars

Raising EPS guidance to$3.65 – $3.75, driven by:— Pricing gains of 6%+

— Productivity and efficiency gains

— Diverse business portfolio

— Moderating fuel prices

Note: Free Cash Flow and capital spending include the impact of recent storm related damages

Highway Diesel Prices versus Two Month Lag

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Q3 07

Positive Lag Impact

Negative Lag Impact

Q4 07 Q1 08 Q2 08 Q3 08 Q4 08

Moderating fuel prices will benefit third quarterModerating fuel prices will benefit third quarter

Weekly HDF Monthly HDF (two-month lag)

Source: Energy Information Administration and NYMEX; HDF actual data through August 2008

Raising long-term targets on higher 2008 base . . .Raising long-term targets on higher 2008 base . . .

Note: New earnings per share targets include impact of current share repurchase program

New2009–2010

Targets

New2009–2010

Targets

Low 70’sBy 2010

OperatingRatio

18%–21%CAGR

Earnings Per Share

13%–15%CAGR

OperatingIncome

Previous2008–2010

Targets

Builds off 2008’s results

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High 60’sBy 2010

High 60’sBy 2010

20%–25%CAGR

20%–25%CAGR

15%–20%CAGR

15%–20%CAGR

Built off 2007’s results

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Dahlman Rose Global Transportation Conference

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Dahlman Rose Global Transportation Conference

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Appendix: GAAP ReconciliationAppendix: GAAP Reconciliation

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GAAP Reconciliation DisclosureGAAP Reconciliation Disclosure

CSX reports its financial results in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles (“GAAP”). However, management believes that certain non-GAAP financial measures used to manage the company’s business that fall within the meaning of Regulation G (Disclosure of Non-GAAP Financial Measures) by the SEC may provide users of the financial information with additional meaningful comparisons to prior reported results.

CSX has provided financial information for certain items, which are non-GAAP financial measures. The company’s management evaluates its business and makes certain operating decisions (e.g., budgeting, forecasting, employee compensation, asset management and resource allocation) using these adjusted numbers

Likewise, this information facilitates comparisons to financial results that are directly associated with ongoing business operations as well as provides comparable historical information. Lastly, earnings forecasts prepared by stock analysts and other third parties generally exclude the effects of items that are difficult to predict or measure in advance and are not directly related to CSX’s ongoing operations. A reconciliation between GAAP and the non-GAAP measure is provided. These non-GAAP measures should not be considered a substitute for GAAP measures.

GAAP reconciliation to comparable resultsGAAP reconciliation to comparable results

Dollars in millions 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 LTM

Operating Revenue $ 7,573 $ 8,040 $ 8,618 $ 9,566 $ 10,030 $ 10,698

Operating Expense 7,058 7,043 7,062 7,417 7,770 8,192

Operating Income $ 515 $ 997 $ 1,556 $ 2,149 $ 2,260 $ 2,506

Less Pretax Gain on Insurance Recoveries - - - (168) (27) (11)

Plus Restructuring Charge 22 71 - - - -

Plus Provision for Casualty Claims 232 - - - - -

Plus Additional Loss on Sale 108 - - - - -

Comparable Operating Income $ 877 $ 1,068 $ 1,556 $ 1,981 $ 2,233 $ 2,495

Comparable Operating Margin 11.6% 13.3% 18.1% 20.7% 22.3% 23.3%

Note: LTM is July 2007 through June 2008

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