CSUSM Smoking and GPA Analysis Business Statistics 304 Walter Evans Farzana Mohsini Sheryl Lejano...

CSUSM Smoking and GPA AnalysisBusiness Statistics 304

•Walter Evans•Farzana Mohsini•Sheryl Lejano•Ryan Thomas

Three Reasons

•Students smoke for pleasure.

•Students’ smoking habits may be tied to a person’s family history.

•Smoking may depend of student age and knowledge .

Mission Statement• Smoking has a negative, positive or neutral impact on the success of

students.

• Our analysis will assist us in planning and implementing smoking intervention programs for Cal State San Marcos.

• Programs may be helpful in preventing the habit of tobacco use in school.

• Help us take action in making an effort to inform the council and promote a lesser degree of smoking on campus.

• Our group would like to determine whether or not smoking on campus is decreasing or increasing and why that is so.

• To properly evaluate the extensiveness of a student smoker’s habits and the level of success a student has accomplished.

Cal State San Marcos Smoking Survey• Gender: Male Female • • Class: Freshman Sophomore Junior Senior • • Age: 17-20 21-24 25-28 29-32 33-36 37-40 >40 • What is your major? _____________

• What is your G.P.A.? <= 2.0 2.01~2.4 2.41~2.80 2.81~3.20 3.21~3.60 >3.6

• • Do you have a family history of smoking? YES NO • When I see a person smoking, it…• makes him/her more attractive. • makes him/her less attractive • has no impact on their attractiveness.• Would you date a person who is smoker? YES NO • • Do you smoke tobacco?• YES NO • • If YES, how many times do you smoke a day?• 1-3 times 4-6 times 7-9 times >10 times • • How long have you been smoking? < 1 year 1-3 years 3-10 years >10 years • • Thank you for your help on this research project! It is greatly appreciated!

Excel Spreadsheet Set-up

# Gender Class Age Major G.P.A. History Attractiveness Date? Smoke Per Day Years

Related Information• Causes for Smoking.

• Time of day (cigarettes/day)

• Duration of smoking

• Family History of smoking

• Student smoking percentage

• number of student smokers

• Given the nature and the student lifestyle, we expect 17% of our surveyed sample to be smokers.

• Proceed in our research by surveying 105 students on campus to operate as a sample for the standard population of the school.

Background Information/Factors• Health risks (first and second hand)

• Cancer susceptibility

• based on time spent on campus in direct connection with smoking

• Comparing and contrasting smoker comfort versus non-smoker discomfort

• Non-smokers hidden annoyances toward smoking

• Smoker’s Nonsmokers awareness of nonsmokers smokers

• Determining possible reasons for smoking (stress, habit, social conformity?)

Mean, Variance, Frequency and Mode

Mean for Age•Used midpoints•Total, Non-Smoking, & Smoking

Mean Total Students

Age # of Students

18.5 20

22.5 57

26.5 14

30.5 7

34.5 0

38.5 1

>40 5

Mean 23.80288462

Mean Non-Smoking

Age # of Students

18.5 15

22.5 52

26.5 11

30.5 6

34.5 0

38.5 0

>40 5

Mean 23.84269663

Mean Smoking

Age # of Students

18.5 5

22.5 5

26.5 3

30.5 1

34.5 0

38.5 1

>40 0

Mean 23.56666667

Mean, Variance & Standard Deviation for GPA

•Used Midpoints•Total, Non-Smoking, & Smoking

Mean GPA Total

< 2.0 0

2.205 3

2.605 21

3.005 25

3.405 44

> 3.6 11

Mean 3.133317308

Variance

Std Dev

Mean GPA Smoking

< 2.0 0

2.205 1

2.605 5

3.005 4

3.405 5

> 3.6 0

Mean 2.951666667

Variance

Std Dev

Mean GPA Non-Smoking

< 2.0 0

2.205 2

2.605 16

3.005 21

3.405 39

> 3.6 11

Mean 3.163932584

Variance

Std Dev

Mean Standard Deviation and Frequency

Mean = 23.80288462Standard Deviation = 5.026830087

Conditional ProbabilityConditional Probability Rules:

15 Smokers 90 Nonsmokers

11 Smoker Male

4 Smoker Female

Total Population: 43 Female 62 Males

Continuous VariablesProbability Rule 4: Addition Rule for Any Two Events, E1 and E2 P(E1 or E2)=P(E1)+P(E2)-P(E1 and E2).

Mutually Exclusive Events

Probability Rule 5: Addition Rule for Mutually Exclusive Events

Two Mutually Exclusive Events E1 and E2

↑

E1 and E2

E1 E2

Conditional ProbabilityTable 1.

Smoker Nonsmoker

Male 11 51 Total 105

Female 4 39

Table 2.

GPA>3.0 GPA<3.0

Smoking Male 7 4 Total 15 Smokers

Smoking Female 2 2

Graphical Representation

GPA>3.0GPA<3.0

Smoking Male 7 4Total 15 Smokers

Smoking Female 2 2

Conditional Probability

Table 3.

GPA>3.0 GPA<3.0 Total 90 Nonsmokers

Nonsmoking Male 38 13 51 Males

Nonsmoking Female 30 9 39 Females


Table 5.

Age > 20 Age ≤20 Total 105

Male 51 11 62 Males

Female 33 10 43 Females

Table 6.

Age > 20 Age ≤20 Total 15

Male Smokers 8 3 11 Males Smokers

Female Smokers 2 2 4 Females Smokers


Event 1= Male

P(E1)=62/105 0.590476

Event 2= Female 0.409524

P(E2)=43/105

P(E1 or E2)=P(E1)+P(E2)-P(E1 and E2)

.590476+.409524-0=1.0 Probability of Either a Male or Female


P(E1 and E2)

4/105=.0380 Probability of Female and Smoker

Event 1= Female

P(E1)=43/1050.40952

4

Event 2=Smoker

P(E2)=15/1050.14285

7


.409524+.142857-.0380= 0.514381 Probability of Either Female or smoker


P(E1 and E2)

11/105=.10476 Probability of Male and Smoker

Event 1= Male

P(E1)=62/1050.5904

76

Event 2=Smoker

P(E2)=15/1050.1428

57


.590476+.142857-.10476= 0.342859 Probability of Either Male or Smoker

Gender Vs. GPA (Male)

Event 1= Male

P(E1)=62/105 .5905 Probability

Event 2= GPA > 3.0


P(E1 and E2)

45/105=.42857 Probability of Male and GPA > 3.0

Gender Vs. GPA (Female)

Event 1= Female

P(E1)=43/105 0.409524

Event 2= GPA > 3.0


P(E1 and E2)

32/105=.30476 Probability of Female and GPA > 3.0

Smoking Vs. GPA (Male)

Event 1= Male Smoker

11/105=.10476 Probability of Male and Smoker

Event 2= GPA > 3.0


P(E1 and E2)

7/105=.066667 Probability of Male Smoker and GPA > 3.0

Smoking Vs. GPA (Female)

Event 1= Female Smoker

4/105=.0380 Probability of Female and Smoker

Event 2= GPA > 3.0


P(E1 and E2)

2/105=.0190 Probability of Female Smoker and GPA > 3.0

Binomial FormulaP(x)

n

x ! n xp qx n x

!

( )!=

-

-n= Random Sample Size

x= Number of successes

n-x= Number of Failures

p= probability of a success 0.14285714

q=1-p = Probability of a failure 0.85714286

n!=n(n-1)(n-2)(n-3)…1

0!=1 by definition 30 7.56E-06 Random 30 variable sample

FACTORIAL

P(x)= 30! (.14285714) power of 4(.85714286) power of 26

4!(30-4)! 4.16E-04 0.0181712

Sampling Error

Total Non-smokers Smokers

Population Mean

3.13 3.16 2.95

Sample Mean 3.137667 3.10 3.08

Error 0.004349 -0.06 0.13

• Comparing GPA to non-smokers and smokers.

• Using a Cluster Sample technique and a random number generator

• Population size (105)• Sample sizes: Total (30), non-smokers (20), and smokers (5)

Margin of Error• Margin of error in GPA compared to non-smokers and smokers.

• Population size (105)• Sample sizes : Total (30), non-smokers (20), and smokers (5)

Total Non-Smokers Smokers

Population Mean 3.13 3.16 2.95

Population S.D. 0.375 0.365 0.396

Sample Mean 3.13 3.10 3.08

Confidence Interval

95% 95% 95%

Margin of Error 0.13 0.15 0.35

Range 3.00 – 3.26 2.95 – 3.25 2.73 – 3.43

Hypothesis testnon-smokers• Lower tail t-test• Null Hypothesis of a 2.00 GPA• If lower, then reject.• Level of significance (0.02)

Total Non-smokers

DataNull Hypothesis = 2Level of Significance 0.02Sample Size 30Sample Mean 3.13Sample Standard Deviation 0.417219

Intermediate CalculationsStandard Error of the Mean 0.076173419Degrees of Freedom 29t Test Statistic 14.83457105

Lower-Tail Test Lower Critical Value -2.150325074p-Value 1

Do not reject the null hypothesis





Hypothesis testsmokers• Lower tail t-test• Null Hypothesis of a 2.00 GPA• If lower, then reject.• Level of significance (0.02)

Total Smokers







Lower-Tail Test Lower Critical Value -2.998527873p-Value 0.999022157


Correlation GPA of non-smokers

CorrelationGPA and smokers

Correlation Regression

Conclusion

• There is no correlation between smoker and non-smoker

• Based on our data , mean for smokers has a lower GPA compare to non-smokers

• Although our data revealed a low percentage of smokers within a 105 person population as a group based on this result we conclude the percentage of smoking amongst the campus population is relatively low.

Suggestion

•Make smoker-free campus.

•Switch the smoking designated area

- General Lots - (Lots J, K, L, N, O, X, Y, and Z ).

•Promote non-smoking habit by encouraging students.

CSUSM Smoking and GPA Analysis Business Statistics 304 Walter Evans Farzana Mohsini Sheryl Lejano...

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