CSP Technologies, Cost, Value and Potential

Frank Wouters

Jordan

July 2017

Structure

• Introduction to CSP

• Storage

• System Value

• Recent developments

• Jordan

3

What is Concentrating Solar Power?

Source: DLR

4

What is Concentrating Solar Power?

Source: DLR

Concentrating Solar Irradiation

Source: Volker Quaschning

Parabolic Trough Central Tower

6

Dish Sterling Linear Fresnel

CSP with Gas Booster

Source: Masdar

Solar Integrated Combined Cycle

Source: SkyFuel

CSP with Thermal Energy Storage

Source: PSA

Value of CSP with Storage

Source: NREL

energy.gov/sunshotenergy.gov/sunshot

energy.gov/sunshotenergy.gov/sunshot

Measuring the Value of CSP in the Power System

Mark S. Mehos, Program Manager, CSP NREL

energy.gov/sunshotenergy.gov/sunshot

CAISO

Analysis of Operational and Capacity Value of CSP in California

Available at http://www.nrel.gov/publications

energy.gov/sunshotenergy.gov/sunshot14

Operational and Capacity Value

• operational value represents the avoided costs of conventional

generation and includes fuel costs, start-up costs, variable

operation and maintenance costs, and emission costs.

• capacity value reflects the ability of PV or CSP-TES to avoid the

cost of building new conventional thermal generators in systems

that need capacity in response to growing energy demand or plant

retirements.

energy.gov/sunshotenergy.gov/sunshot

Analysis – Operational Value of CSP

Lowest solar multiples (lower annual capacity factors) yield

the highest operational system value

SM = Solar Multiple = oversize factor ofsolar field in comparison to a plant without thermal storage

energy.gov/sunshotenergy.gov/sunshot

CSP integrated with thermal energy storage maintains

high capacity value with increasing RE penetration, while

capacity value of PV collapses

Capacity Credit (%)

CSP-TES

(with > 3 Hrs Storage)PV

33% RPS Scenario 92.2% 22%

40% RPS Scenario 96.6% 3.4%

Analysis – Capacity Value

NREL 2014

energy.gov/sunshotenergy.gov/sunshot

Analysis – Total Valuation

Relative value of CSP is 5ct per kWh greater than PV in the

33% scenario and about 6ct per kWh greater in the 40%

scenario

energy.gov/sunshotenergy.gov/sunshot18

Key Points

• CSP with dispatchable thermal energy storage provides and maintains both operational (fuel and emissions) and capacity (reliability) benefits to regional grids

• This is especially true at high penetrations of variable renewable technologies such as PV and wind

• CSP can support additional generation of variable technologies due to its flexibility relative to inflexible baseload coal generation.

Cost vs. Value?!

Source: Fraunhofer ISE, 2016

CCGT 30$ Diesel/oil 30$ Diesel/oil 40$ Nuclear CSP 8h PV 1800 Wind 2500

CAPEX $/kW 1000 150 150 6000 4500 1000 1500

Interest % 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10%

Var. OPEX $/kWh 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0 0.015

Fixed OPEX $/kW 22 30 30 200 30 30 5

Output kWh/a 7000 7000 7000 7500 4200 1800 2500

Fuel prices $/kWh 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.005 0 0 0

eff % 55% 35% 35% 100% 100% 100% 100%

Degradation % 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1%

1. DEWA effect

2. Dispatchability

3. Apples with apples

1.

Recent Developments

• Dubai’s 200 MW twin tower tender world record result:

9.45cts/kWh

• Dubai has low DNI of ~1900 kWh/m2/yr and no concessional finance available

• Some characteristics of the project:

• CSP tower technology (2x100MW towers) with molten salts;

• Minimum of 8 full load hours of TES

• Tariff structure designed to complement PV generation profile: Non-Operational Hours from 10:00 to 16:00

• IPP, but DEWA will own 51%

• 25 year PPA, currency pegged to USD

20

Potential for Jordan

• Assuming a 200MW CSP solar tower project with >8hr storage in Ma’an, same specs as Dubai:

• DNI = 2798 kWh/m2/yr

• Assuming CAPEX and financing conditions the same as Dubai

• Implies LCOE of 6.3 $ct/kWh

Thank you!

• Frank Wouters

• frank@frank-wouters.com