CSME Integration Possibilities- An Oil and Gas Perspective

T. M. T. M. BoopsinghBoopsingh

Sherbourne Sherbourne Conference CentreConference Centre

Barbados, 29th June 2006

Outline

International Energy Overview- Geographic, Economic and Global Realities

A Brief Review of Inputs - Geographic and Regional Overview

- The Trinidad and Tobago Downstream industry

- A Regional demand Analysis

The Way Forward – Regional & National Issues

- The Opportunities

International Energy Overview

Section 1

International Perspectives- The Region in the World

Western Energy Security World Economic Growth

China & India make the new difference

Saudi vs Iraqi Resources US vs European/Japanese Interests Russian Oil and now GAS Other US Needs, Interests & Inputs

Imports, Transportation, Sales, Technology

The Caribbean’s Energy Needs

Bulk vs Supplemental

Urban vs Rural

Primary vs Secondary Energy

Electricity vs Transportation

Medium term vs Long term

BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2005 © BP 2005

World Energy Growth

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004

World excl China Chinamtoe p.a.

Annual growth in world energy consumption

World Energy Demand to 2025

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

1980 2000 2005 2015 2025

To

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y C

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0

2

4

6

8

10

Po

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lati

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To

tal,

B

illi

on

Per

son

s

Total Energy Population

Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2004; EIA, International Energy Outlook 2004

Projected Contributions from "New" Renewable Energy Sources in 2020

ETW "Minimum" ETW "Maximum"Mtoe % of total Mtoe % of total

Modern biomass 243 45 561 42

Solar 109 20 355 26Other (wind, geothermal, small hydro, waste) 187 35 429 32

Total 539 100 1345 100% of Total Primary Energy Consumption 3-4 8 -12

Source: WEC’s ETW 2000.NB. In 1990 new renewables contributed 164 Mtoe (1.9% to total energy demand).

The Coming Age of Natural Gas

Infrastructure issues

Gas Hydrates

Fuel Cells

Sources of Production for the Caribbean

Sections 2a & 2b

The Sources of Energy - Geographically

US Gulf Coast Venezuela* Trinidad and Tobago# - CSME member Colombia Mexico* West Africa# Other, inc. Brazil, Ecuador, Middle East, etc.

* Oil Exporter # Oil & Gas Exporter

Petroleum Products

Oil, Products & LNG

Oil & Petroleum Products

T&T - Existing Gas Based Plants

1 Natural Gas Liquids Processing Facility 4 LNG Trains (2300 MMscfd) 9 Ammonia Plants (4,485 MTPA) 1 Urea Plant (550 MTPA) 5 Methanol Plants (2,960 MTPA) 4 Iron and Steel Mills (2,560 MTPA) 4 Power Generation Plants - Powergen (3) & Inncogen 1 Offshore Platform Fabrication Yard Other

Refinery Cement Manufacture Light Industrial/Commercial Consumers - 96 2 Gas Fired Air Cooling Projects 4000 CNG powered vehicles

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006Gas Chemicals 550 600 640 660 660 700 700 950 1050 1200Metals usage 100 110 130 150 155 160 160 160 180 200Electricity 260 260 260 260 260 260 260 260 260 260LNG 0 0 210 420 450 475 900 1400 1500 2300

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

MM

SCFD

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Natural Gas Sales : 1997-2006

LNG Gas Chemicals Metals usage Electricity

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

MM

SC

FD

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

T&T Natural Gas Sales

Gas Chemicals Metals usage Electricity LNG

4 LNG Trains

Liquefying Natural Gas

TT / Venezuelan Cross-Border Drilling

Pricing Natural Gas in T&T

Net back Pricing based on Product sales prices

– LNG, Methanol, Ammonia,

Alternate Fuel Pricing e.g. Fuel Oil/Crude Oil

Net back Pricing based on Product sales prices - Steel; Aluminium ?

Domestic Pricing - TTEC, Small Manufacturers.

Proposed New Plants in

Trinidad

Alutrint Aluminium Smelter Aluminium Wire, Rods, Wheels, Parts AnsaMcal/Terra UAN Ammonia complex Clico Energy et. al. UAM Ammonia

complex Eastern Caribbean Gas Pipeline Alcoa Smelter New Refinery at Pointe-a-Pierre Westlake Ethylene Complex, etc,

A Demand Analysis

in the Caribbean

Section 2c

Role of Indigenous Resources in Meeting Energy Demand - 2000

Country/Item Hydro in Power Generation %

Oil/Gas Production in Petroleum Demand %

Suriname 74 82

Dominica 50 -

Haiti 47 -

St. Vincent 32 -

Dominican Rep. 8 -

Jamaica 2 -

Cuba 1 31 (55% by 2004)

Barbados - 19

Trinidad & Tobago

- 190 Source: T.A. Byer

Petroleum Product Demand in 2000 (BBls/Day)

– North Caribbean Markets

Product/Country

Gasoline

Distillate

RFO Total Of whichPower-%

Cuba 10,800 43,800 93,100 160,500 37

Jamaica 11,500 10,900 40,150 65,600 41

Haiti 2,400 6,950 310 10,330 13

Dom. Rep.

27,270 52,600 24,800 125,060 31

Puerto Rico

62,950 24,250 60,000 170,000 45

Source: T.A. Byer

Petroleum Product Demand in 2000

(BBls/day)

– Eastern Caribbean Markets

Product/Country

Gasoline

Distillate

RFO Total Of whichPower-%

Guadeloupe

3,150 4,800 3,200 12,400 31

Dominica 300 200 20 600 25

Martinique 2,750 5,700 4,050 13,400 33

St. Lucia 850 1,950 20 2,950 40

St. Vincent

450 650 - 1,200 23

Barbados 1,900 5,750 2,700 10,800 31

Grenada 540 710 - 1,460 30Source: T.A. Byer

Conclusions of Macro-Economic & Petroleum Demand Analysis

Power Sector is the prime activity for displacing liquid fuels – represented by few corporate entities which facilitates implementation

Transport sector fuels – gasoline, Avjet and diesel oil – substitution more difficult.

Source: T.A. Byer

The Eastern Caribbean Pipeline

Final System LayoutTechnical Considerations

Larger markets and less risky service via Eastern segment to Barbados

Western segment’s small diameter (5”) facilitates minimizing impact of geo-technical hazards in servicing Grenada and St Vincent. Not Commercial.

Interconnect point in Martinique to re-distribute to Central & Northern systems

Access to Fort de France markets

More difficult subsea terrain characterizes Northern route to Guadeloupe and Dominica

Central

Eastern

Western

Northern

T&T – Its Role in the Hemisphere

US LNG Imports

Largest world Ammonia and Methanol

exporter

Deep Water Prospects

U.S. LNG ImportsU.S. LNG Imports

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

BCFD

Projected Range of Imports

Cambridge Energy Research Associates“New Realities, New Risks: North American Gas and Power Scenarios Through 2020”

       

       

       

       

       

       

       

                                                                                                            

Slide 21 of 31

T&T - Its Role in the Region

US LNG Imports

US Ammonia & Methanol Imports

Deep Water Prospects

Location re Venezuela

Caribbean Refining Center

Small and Strategically positioned

Regional Structures and Issues

Section 3

The Way Forward

Long Term – 1. Solar inc. Photo Voltaic

2. Other inc. Conservation, Energy Security, Diversification

Private Capital - The key to prioritization

Medium Term – Natural Gas & Bio-fuelsa) Eastern Caribbean Pipeline

b) LNG for Northern Caribbean

Domestic Demand Management inc. Price Differentiation, Supply Diversification, Affordability, Trade

Cooperation, Conservation

Regional and National Structures

REAP – a critical Institutional product Cooperating within the ACS Using Market related pricing Partnering J/V’s and/with IOC’s Facilitate Refining, Shipping & Trading Establish credible Regulatory Agencies

New downstream

potential

Steel and Steel products Aluminium and its products Gas based Petroleum Products Natural Gas in Cooling CNG in land transportation Ethylene based Plastics

New Trading potential

Alumina and Aluminium products

Forest and wood products

New Petroleum Products

Fertilisers and by-products

Plastics

THE ENDTHE END

Oh to be like this!Oh to be like this!

Thank Thank you for your attention.

ur attention.