CSI: Climate Status Investigations Teacher Training Institute April 16-21, 2008 Climate Change 101.
-
Upload
eric-sanders -
Category
Documents
-
view
217 -
download
1
Transcript of CSI: Climate Status Investigations Teacher Training Institute April 16-21, 2008 Climate Change 101.
![Page 1: CSI: Climate Status Investigations Teacher Training Institute April 16-21, 2008 Climate Change 101.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062409/56649ecf5503460f94bdc864/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
CSI: Climate Status Investigations
Teacher Training Institute
April 16-21, 2008
Climate Change 101
![Page 2: CSI: Climate Status Investigations Teacher Training Institute April 16-21, 2008 Climate Change 101.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062409/56649ecf5503460f94bdc864/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Everything I know about climate change I learned at the movies…
20041995
![Page 3: CSI: Climate Status Investigations Teacher Training Institute April 16-21, 2008 Climate Change 101.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062409/56649ecf5503460f94bdc864/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Everything I know about climate change I learned at the movies…
200620041995
![Page 4: CSI: Climate Status Investigations Teacher Training Institute April 16-21, 2008 Climate Change 101.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062409/56649ecf5503460f94bdc864/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Presentation Outline
• The Greenhouse Effect
• Where Does Our Energy Come From?
• Emissions
• Correlation w/Monitored Climate Changes
• Future Trends
![Page 5: CSI: Climate Status Investigations Teacher Training Institute April 16-21, 2008 Climate Change 101.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062409/56649ecf5503460f94bdc864/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Source: EPA Global Warming site.http://yosemite.epa.gov/oar/globalwarming.nsf/content/climate.html
![Page 6: CSI: Climate Status Investigations Teacher Training Institute April 16-21, 2008 Climate Change 101.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062409/56649ecf5503460f94bdc864/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
CO2 CH4 N2O CF4 SF6
Global Warming Potential (GWP)
1 21 310 6,500 23,900
Atmospheric Lifetime (years)
50-200 12 114 >50,000 3,200
Pre-industrial Concentration (ppm)
280 0.722 0.270 40 0
Atmospheric Concentration (ppm)
381 1.774 0.319 80 5.4
Rate of Concentration Change (ppm/yr)
1,610 0.005 0.0007 1.0 (ppt/yr)
0.23 (ppt/yr)
Effects of Different Greenhouse Gases
Source: US EPA: US Greenhouse Gas Inventory Reports 2008http://epa.gov/climatechange/emissions/usinventoryreport.html
![Page 7: CSI: Climate Status Investigations Teacher Training Institute April 16-21, 2008 Climate Change 101.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062409/56649ecf5503460f94bdc864/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
CONVERSION CHARTS
1 unit carbon (C) = 3.6667 or 44/12 units carbon dioxide (CO2)
1 unit CO2 = 0.2727 or 12/44 units C
Converting methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) to equivalent CO2 and C units:
• Global Warming Potential (GWP) of CO2 = 1
• GWP of CH4 = 21 (over 100-year time period -- IPCC Third Assessment Report)
• GWP of N2O = 310 (over 100-year time period -- IPCC Third Assessment Report)
EXAMPLE: (100 metric tons of N2O)x(310) = 31,000 metric tons of CO2 Equivalents x 12/44 = 8,454 metric tons of Carbon Equivalents x 2204/2000 = 9,316 short tons C
Converting mass units (e.g., short tons, metric tons, teragrams)
1 metric ton (tonne) = 1,000 kilograms (kg) = 2,204 lbs1 short ton = 0.9072 metric tons = 2,000 lbs1 Teragram (Tg) = 1012 grams = 1 million (106) metric tons1 Gigaton (Gt) = 1 Petagram (Pg) = 1015 grams = 1 billion (109) metric tons
![Page 8: CSI: Climate Status Investigations Teacher Training Institute April 16-21, 2008 Climate Change 101.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062409/56649ecf5503460f94bdc864/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Presentation Outline
• The Greenhouse Effect
• Where Does Our Energy Come From?
• Emissions
• Correlation w/Monitored Climate Changes
• Future Trends
![Page 9: CSI: Climate Status Investigations Teacher Training Institute April 16-21, 2008 Climate Change 101.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062409/56649ecf5503460f94bdc864/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Fossil FuelsWorld’s Dominant Energy Source
United States (2005)100 QBtu/yr (1.06e14 MJ)
86% Fossil Energy
World (2005) 462 Quads/yr (4.87e14 MJ)
86% Fossil Energy
World Data from International Energy Outlook 2007 http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/world.html.U.S. Data from Annual Energy Outlook 2008 http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/fuel.html
Coal26%Coal26%
Oil37%
Gas23%
Nuclear 6%
Gas23%
Nuclear 8%
Oil41%
Hydro 3%
Other renewable
(solar, wind, geothermal, biomass) 3%
Renewables 8%
Coal23%Coal23%
![Page 10: CSI: Climate Status Investigations Teacher Training Institute April 16-21, 2008 Climate Change 101.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062409/56649ecf5503460f94bdc864/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Renewables 6%
100 Quads
Fossil fuels provide 86% of energy
2005
2030
131 Quads
By 2030, reliance on fossil fuels remains
stable at 86%
Coal23%
Nuclear 8%
Renewables 6%
Oil 41%
Gas23%
Coal26%
Nuclear 7%
Oil 40%
Gas20%
+ 31%
Source: AEO 2007
Fossil Energy - America’s Energy Foundation
![Page 11: CSI: Climate Status Investigations Teacher Training Institute April 16-21, 2008 Climate Change 101.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062409/56649ecf5503460f94bdc864/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Hydro, 3.0
Biomass, 3.2
Muni Waste, 0.4
Biofuels, 5.1
Geothermal, 0.8
Wind, 1.2
Solar, 0.0
Hydro, 2.7
Biomass, 2.2
Biofuels, 0.6
Muni Waste, 0.4
Geothermal, 0.3
Solar, 0.0
Wind, 0.1
6.3 Quads2005
203013.7 Quads
+ 118%
Source: AEO 2008
Renewable Energy Consumption – Growing Fast, But From a Small Base
![Page 12: CSI: Climate Status Investigations Teacher Training Institute April 16-21, 2008 Climate Change 101.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062409/56649ecf5503460f94bdc864/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Presentation Outline
• The Greenhouse Effect
• Where Does Our Energy Come From?
• Emissions
• Correlation with Monitored Climate Changes
• Future Trends
![Page 13: CSI: Climate Status Investigations Teacher Training Institute April 16-21, 2008 Climate Change 101.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062409/56649ecf5503460f94bdc864/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
All Fossil Fuels & Energy SectorsContribute CO2 Emissions
Industry29%
Industry29%
Commercial18%
Commercial18%
Residential21%
Transportation32%
Transportation32%
Oil44%Oil
44%
Coal36%Coal36%
Natural Gas20%
AEO2007
United States Carbon Dioxide Emissions(By Source & Sector)
![Page 14: CSI: Climate Status Investigations Teacher Training Institute April 16-21, 2008 Climate Change 101.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062409/56649ecf5503460f94bdc864/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
CO2 & CH4 - The Primary GHG Contributors
Methane9%
Nitrous Oxide5%
HFCs, PFCs, SF6
2%
CO2 fromEnergy
83%
Other CO2
2%
“EIA Emissions of Greenhouse Gases in the U.S.: 2005”
United States Greenhouse Gas Emissions(Equivalent Global Warming Basis)
![Page 15: CSI: Climate Status Investigations Teacher Training Institute April 16-21, 2008 Climate Change 101.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062409/56649ecf5503460f94bdc864/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
World Carbon Dioxide Emissions By Region, 2001-2025(Million Metric Tons of C Equivalent)
Carbon Intensity By Region, 2001-2025(Metric Tons of C Equivalent per Million $1997)
…But Carbon Dioxide Emissions are Growing
Carbon Intensity is Falling…
![Page 16: CSI: Climate Status Investigations Teacher Training Institute April 16-21, 2008 Climate Change 101.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062409/56649ecf5503460f94bdc864/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095
Mil
lio
n T
on
nes
Car
bo
n
WRE 450
WRE 550
WRE 650
NETL 2003
BAU
Delay 550
Different Concentration Levels are Possible
Source: Dave Hawkins, NRDC, presented at Keystone Energy Forum, Feb. 2004
![Page 17: CSI: Climate Status Investigations Teacher Training Institute April 16-21, 2008 Climate Change 101.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062409/56649ecf5503460f94bdc864/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Stabilization Requires a Budget
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
450 550 650 750ppm
Billion
ton
nes C
arb
on
(1900-2
100)
Source: Dave Hawkins, NRDC, presented at Keystone Energy Forum, Feb. 2004
![Page 18: CSI: Climate Status Investigations Teacher Training Institute April 16-21, 2008 Climate Change 101.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062409/56649ecf5503460f94bdc864/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
The Budget is DisappearingCumulative carbon emissions 1900-2100 (GtC)
Budget for 450 ppm Stabilization
Today
531283
2010
375 439
2020
322492
2030
638 176
2040
809 5
Spent
Remaining
Source: Dave Hawkins, NRDC, presented at Keystone Energy Forum, Feb. 2004
![Page 19: CSI: Climate Status Investigations Teacher Training Institute April 16-21, 2008 Climate Change 101.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062409/56649ecf5503460f94bdc864/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Presentation Outline
• The Greenhouse Effect
• Where Does Our Energy Come From?
• Emissions
• Correlation with Monitored Climate Changes
• Future Trends
![Page 20: CSI: Climate Status Investigations Teacher Training Institute April 16-21, 2008 Climate Change 101.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062409/56649ecf5503460f94bdc864/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Atmospheric Concentrations are Rising…
![Page 21: CSI: Climate Status Investigations Teacher Training Institute April 16-21, 2008 Climate Change 101.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062409/56649ecf5503460f94bdc864/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
CO2 Concentrations On The Rise(~280 ppm to 370 ppm over last 100 years)
Tem
pera
ture
Cha
nge
from
Pre
sent
(oC
)
Time Before Present (kyr)
CO
2 Con
cent
ratio
n(p
pmv)
200 150 50
350
300
250
200
100 0
2
0
-2
-4
Tatm (Vostok)
CO2 (Vostok)
![Page 22: CSI: Climate Status Investigations Teacher Training Institute April 16-21, 2008 Climate Change 101.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062409/56649ecf5503460f94bdc864/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
![Page 23: CSI: Climate Status Investigations Teacher Training Institute April 16-21, 2008 Climate Change 101.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062409/56649ecf5503460f94bdc864/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change - http://www.ipcc.ch/present/graphics.htm
![Page 24: CSI: Climate Status Investigations Teacher Training Institute April 16-21, 2008 Climate Change 101.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062409/56649ecf5503460f94bdc864/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Presentation Outline• The Greenhouse Effect
• Where Does Our Energy Come From?
• Emissions
• Correlation w/Monitored Climate Changes
• Future Trends
![Page 25: CSI: Climate Status Investigations Teacher Training Institute April 16-21, 2008 Climate Change 101.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062409/56649ecf5503460f94bdc864/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Possible harbingers…
• Rising sea levels• Spreading disease• Earlier spring arrival• Plant and animal range shifts
and population changes• Coral reef bleaching• Permafrost melting• Downpours, heavy
snowfalls, and flooding• Droughts and fires
![Page 26: CSI: Climate Status Investigations Teacher Training Institute April 16-21, 2008 Climate Change 101.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062409/56649ecf5503460f94bdc864/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
![Page 27: CSI: Climate Status Investigations Teacher Training Institute April 16-21, 2008 Climate Change 101.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062409/56649ecf5503460f94bdc864/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
![Page 28: CSI: Climate Status Investigations Teacher Training Institute April 16-21, 2008 Climate Change 101.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062409/56649ecf5503460f94bdc864/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
Source: http://www.arctic.noaa.gov and National Climatic Data Center, NOAA
Permafrost and polar ice are melting…
![Page 29: CSI: Climate Status Investigations Teacher Training Institute April 16-21, 2008 Climate Change 101.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062409/56649ecf5503460f94bdc864/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
Source: National Climatic Data Center, NOAA
Precipitation is erratic
![Page 30: CSI: Climate Status Investigations Teacher Training Institute April 16-21, 2008 Climate Change 101.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062409/56649ecf5503460f94bdc864/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
Significant Climate Anomalies
Source: National Climatic Data Center, NOAA