CS China Growth Slowed to 7.5 July 2013
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Transcript of CS China Growth Slowed to 7.5 July 2013
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China: Growth slowed to7.5% yoy in 2Q13
Chinas headline GDP growth was at 7.5% yoy in 2Q13, weaker than its prior reading of 7.7% yoy in 1Q13. This is in line with market expectations, but slightlystronger than our projection of 7.4%. In June, industrial production slowed to 8.9%yoy, retail sales accelerated to 13.3% yoy. FAI rose by 20.1% yoy for 1H13,weaker than the 20.2% expected by the market.
We were a little surprised by the data, as they seem to indicate that the spikes inSHIBOR and the much tightened credit conditions in June had little impact onproduction and investment. Certainly, more impact could surface in July, but still,given that banks lent out very little in the second half of June, infrastructure
investment and inventory rebuild seem to have slowed down.The government emphasised two points about this set of data: (1) the major economic indicators are within the expected ranges; and (2) the moderation ingrowth is a result of pro-active structural adjustment. In other words, Beijing doesnot believe that the current growth momentum is threatening the bottom line of itspolicy growth target, perceived around 7.0% yoy by China watchers. That seemsto imply that Beijing is in no hurry to boost growth.
As such, we do not expect imminent expansionary policies to boost growthmomentum. Still, we believe that growth momentum is probably weaker than theheadline suggested and could weaken further amid tightened liquidity conditions.
Should that scenario play out, with modest growth deceleration, we would expectsome form of policy reaction, including providing additional liquidity to localgovernments in late summer, as the country embraces the third plenary sessionof the party congress in October, though the scale would not be comparable towhat was launched in 2009. Our growth forecast remains at 7.4% for 2013.
Exhibit 1: Headline growth slowed, sequential growth is a surprise
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3 Q 0 9
4 Q 0 9
2 0 1 0
2 Q 1 0
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2 Q 1 1
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4 Q 1 1
2 0 1 2
2 Q 1 2
3 Q 1 2
4 Q 1 2
1 Q 1 3
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Real GDP Growth( %yoy)
Real GDP Growth(% SAAR)
Source: NBS, Credit Suisse
Research AnalystsDong Tao
+852 2101 7469 [email protected]
Weishen Deng+852 2101 7162
15 July 2013Economics Research
http://www.credit-suisse.com/researchandanalytics
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15 July 2013
China: Growth slowed to 7.5% yoy in 2Q13 2
Headline growth slowedChinas headline GDP growth was at 7.5% yoy in 2Q13 , weaker than its prior readingof 7.7% yoy in 1Q13. This is in line with market expectations, but slightly stronger than our projection of 7.4%. On a quarter-on-quarter seasonally adjusted basis, theeconomy expanded by 1.7% qoq, with an annualised growth rate of 7.0% SAAR. For thefirst half of the year, the economy grew by 7.6% yoy, lower than 2012 s annual growth of 7.8%.
Exhibit 2: Headline growth slowed, sequentialgrowth is a surprise
Exhibit 3: Both industrial production and FAI growthweakened in the quarter, though retail salesimproved slightly
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3 Q 0 9
4 Q 0 9
2 0 1 0
2 Q1 0
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2 0 1 1
2 Q1 1
3 Q1 1
4 Q1 1
2 0 1 2
2 Q1 2
3 Q1 2
4 Q1 2
1 Q1 3
2 Q1 3
Real GDP Growth( %yoy)
Real GDP Growth(% SAAR)
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J un-1 0
S e p-1 0
D e c -1 0
M ar -1 1
J un-1 1
S e p-1 1
D e c -1 1
M ar -1 2
J un-1 2
S e p-1 2
D e c -1 2
M ar -1 3
J un-1 3
China: Industrial production (%yoy, 3m mav) - LHS
China: Retail Sales (%yoy, 3m mav) - LHS
China: Fixed asset investment (%yoy, 3m mav) - RHS
Source: NBS, Credit Suisse Source: NBS, Credit Suisse
Industrial production for June grew by 8.9% yoy , weaker than Bloombergconsensus of 9.1% yoy and that of 9.2% yoy in May . On a seasonally adjusted
sequential basis, IP grew by 0.68% mom in June, slightly weaker than the averagemonthly sequential growth of 0.69% mom seen between January and May. For 1H13 as awhole, IP grew by 9.3%.
Fixed asset investment rose by 20.1% yoy for 1H13, weaker than the 20.2% expectedby the market . In real terms, FAI expanded by 20.1% yoy for the first half of the year. Weestimate that the FAI for June alone rose 19.2% yoy, below the 20.3% yoy growth seen inthe previous month. On a sequential basis, FAI grew by 1.51% mom (sa), stronger thanthe 1.43% mom (sa) in May.
Retail sales accelerated to 13.3% yoy in June , stronger than the 12.9% yoy expectedby the Bloomberg consensus and its prior reading of 12.9% yoy. In real terms, retailsales grew by 11.7% in the month. Sequentially, retail sales growth was 1.26% mom (sa)in June, stronger than the 1.15% mom seen in the previous month and the average
monthly sequential growth of 0.97% mom seen between January and May. For the firsthalf of the year, retail sales grew by 12.7% yoy.
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15 July 2013
China: Growth slowed to 7.5% yoy in 2Q13 3
Exhibit 4: Junes headline IP growth slid below 9.0%again
Exhibit 5: Retail sales growth accelerated in June tobeat the expectation for the first time in six months
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Industrial production (% yoy)
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16Bloomberg consensus of retail sales growth
Retail sales growth (%yoy)
Source: NBS,Credit Suisse Source: NBS, the Bloomberg Professional Service, Credit Suisse
Data surpriseWe were a little surprised by the data, as they seem to indicate that the spikes inSHIBOR and the much tightened credit conditions in June had little impact onproduction and investment. Certainly, more impact could surface in July, but still, giventhat banks lent out very little in the second half of June, we surmise that infrastructureinvestment and inventory rebuild probably slowed down. The good news is that incomegrowth remained robust, with the urban population seeing a 9.1% year-to-date incomeincrease in nominal terms and 6.5% in real terms, while the rural population saw 11.9%
and 9.2% in nominal and real income growth, respectively, during 1H13. That lifted retailsales by 12.7% in nominal growth and 11.4% in real growth for 1H13 and 13.3% (nominalyoy) and 11.7% (real yoy) for June.
Exhibit 6: Urban disposable income growth is stillabove 9.0%...
Exhibit 7: while income growth in rural area is stillat double digit
2.03.04.05.06.07.08.09.0
10.011.012.013.014.015.0
M a r - 1 2
A p r - 1 2
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Urban disposable income per capita(year-to-date growth, %)
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Rural cash income per capita (year-to-dategrowth, %)
Source: NBS, Credit Suisse Source: NBS, Credit Suisse
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15 July 2013
China: Growth slowed to 7.5% yoy in 2Q13 4
Exhibit 8: Summary of Chinas macroeconomic indicators(% yoy, unless otherwise stated) Jun May Apr Mar Feb Jan Dec Nov Oct Sep Aug Jul JunReal GDP 7.5 7.7 7.9 7.4 7.6%qoq, seasonally adjusted (sa) 1.7 1.6 1.9 2.0 2.1%qoq, annualized 7.0 6.6 7.8 8.2 8.7Fixed asset investments 19.2 20.3 20.1 20.7 21.2 20.0 20.7 22.2 22.0 19.3 20.6 21.0
%mom, sa 1.51 1.43 1.37 1.84 0.72 1.82 1.38 1.01 1.97 1.93 1.27 1.32 1.87Industrial production 8.9 9.2 9.3 8.9 9.9 10.3 10.1 9.6 9.2 8.9 9.2 9.5%mom, sa 0.68 0.61 0.86 0.65 0.77 0.58 0.81 0.79 0.78 0.79 0.72 0.69 0.80Retail sales 13.3 12.9 12.8 12.6 12.3 15.2 14.9 14.5 14.2 13.2 13.1 13.7%mom, sa 1.26 1.15 1.24 1.29 0.97 0.19 1.3 1.18 1.17 1.36 1.1 1.09 1.12Headline CPI 2.7 2.1 2.4 2.1 3.2 2.0 2.5 2.0 1.7 1.9 2.0 1.8 2.2%mom, nsa 0.0 -0.6 0.2 -0.9 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.1 -0.1 0.3 0.6 0.1 -0.6Food CPI 4.9 3.2 4.0 2.7 6.0 2.9 4.2 3.0 1.8 2.5 3.4 2.4 3.8%mom, nsa 0.0 -1.6 0.4 -2.9 2.7 2.8 2.4 0.4 -0.8 0.2 1.5 -0.1 -1.6Non-food CPI 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.8 1.9 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.4 1.5 1.4%mom, nsa 0.0 -0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.0Services CPI 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.1 3.1 2.2 2.5 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.1 2.0 1.9%mom, nsa 0.2 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.8 0.4 0.0 -0.3 0.2 0.3 0.7 0.6 0.3PPI -2.7 -2.9 -2.6 -1.9 -1.6 -1.6 -1.9 -2.2 -2.8 -3.6 -3.5 -2.9 -2.1Total social financing (RMB bn) 1038.0 1185.6 1761.9 2549.8 1070.1 2544.6 1625.6 1122.5 1290.6 1646.2 1247.5 1052.2 1780.2New loan (RMB bn) 860.5 667.4 792.3 1062.5 620.0 1072.1 454.3 522.0 505.4 622.6 703.9 540.1 919.8M2 14.0 15.8 16.1 15.7 15.2 15.9 13.8 13.9 14.1 14.8 13.5 13.9 13.6Exports -3.1 1.0 14.6 10.0 21.8 25.0 14.0 2.8 11.5 9.8 2.7 1.0 11.3Imports -0.7 -0.3 16.8 14.2 -15.0 28.8 6.0 -0.1 2.2 2.3 -2.7 4.8 6.3Source: NBS, General Administration of Customs, PBoC, Credit Suisse
The government emphasised two points about this set of data: (1) the major economic indicators are within the expected ranges; and (2) the moderation ingrowth is a result of pro-active structural adjustment. In other words, Beijing does notbelieve that the current growth momentum is threatening the bottom line of its policygrowth target, perceived around 7.0% yoy by China watchers. That seems to imply thatBeijing is in no hurry to boost growth. Under the leadership of Premier Li, it seems thegovernment is more reluctant to launch large-scale fiscal stimulus unless absolutelynecessary and is more keen to improve the efficiency of current monetary and fiscalpolicies. As such, we do not expect imminent expansionary policies to boost growthmomentum.
Still, we believe that growth momentum is probably weaker than the headlinesuggests and could weaken further amid tightened liquidity conditions. Should thatscenario play out, with modest growth deceleration, we would expect some form of policyreaction, including providing additional liquidity to local governments in late summer, asthe country embraces the third plenary session of the party congress in October, thoughthe scale would not be comparable to what was launched in 2009. We have no plan torevise our growth forecast, currently standing at 7.4% for 2013.
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