CRYPTO UTOPIA Is there a $1 Trillion Opportunity? · CRYPTO UTOPIA Is there a $1 Trillion...

CRYPTO UTOPIAIs there a $1 Trillion Opportunity?

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@autonofintech

https://next.autonomous.com

2

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@autonofintech


Autonomous NEXT brings together a fundamental cash-

flow view with an innovation growth lens

3

Macro View on Asset Class

@autonofintech


September to Date has seen $18 Billion in ICO funding, vs

$8B+ for last year, but ...

5

Investment in Crypto-Economy ($mm)

Source: Autonomous NEXT, Various for ICO, Pitchbook for VC

197 498 632 783 1,610

4,378

364 245417

721

230

7,374

11,507

994

3,205

3,025

0.2B 0.6B 1.0B 1.3B

10.4B

22.8B

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 YTD

Venture Investors

Corporate Venture

ICO

Rolling EOS

Large Private Raises

@autonofintech


... much of that funding is in large private raises, with equity

investing starting to make a comeback

6

Monthly Investment in Crypto-Economy ($mm)

Source: Autonomous NEXT, Various for ICO, Pitchbook for VC, EOS Scan

0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.10.3

0.1 0.10.3 0.2 0.2

0.50.8

0.7

0.1

0.70.5 0.6

0.0 0.00.0

0.1 0.2

0.60.4

0.4

0.9

1.1 1.3

1.9

2.2

1.61.5

1.2

1.4

1.1

1.0

0.8

0.5

0.6

0.3 0.1

0.0

0.00.1

0.4

0.7

0.5

0.40.6

0.9

0.0

0.9

0.9

0.6

0.8

0.1 0.1 0.1

0.3 0.3

0.7 0.80.7

1.0

1.41.5

2.4

3.2 3.2

2.9

2.3

3.1

2.4

1.9

1.5

0.9

1.2

Venture into Equity ICOs EOS Large Private Token Sales

@autonofintech


Europe is approximately 20-40% of the offering activity and

10-30% of the investment amount

7Source: ICO Bench, ICO Rating, Pitchbook

ICO Bench

ICOs $

Singapore

Russia

Switzerland

Estonia

UK

USA

ICOs $

Australia

India

South Korea

China

Singapore

Russia

Estonia

Switzerland

UK

US

EquityFinancing

$

Asia

Europe

Americas

ICO Rating Pitchbook

@autonofintech


Increasing diversification in the types of ICOs, with apps

and vertical use cases supplementing fat protocols

8

• All Initial Coin Offerings by Industry (USD Equivalent, $1MM+ raises, ex EOS/Telegram)

Source: Autonomous NEXT

Vertical App

Use Cases

Fat Protocol

Thesis Of

Future

Infrastructure

Facilitating

Economic

Activity &

Speculation

2

2277 190

19

23

1,2331,235

7

1

9

373

246

2

1,075

927

166494

369

5

6

973

922

1,118

1,430

7

335

580

12552

1,238

2014 2015 2016 2017 Jun-18

Media & Social

Gaming & Gambling

Internet of Things & People

Finance: Markets

Finance: Investments

Finance: Banking & Payments

Cloud

Core Tech

Cryptocurrency

26M 8M 227M 6.4B 7.1B

@autonofintech


Complex taxonomy of different crypto assets

9

Cry

pto

Asse

t

General Monetary Instrument

Coin

Floating

Fixed

Asset-backedProtocol Token

Central Bank Coin

Application Utility TokenDecentralized Application

OwnershipInternal App Object

External Data or IP

Economic RightCoupon

Referral Share

Activity RightReward

License

Enterprise Chain

Tokenized Financial Instrument

Security Token

Equity

Debt

Real Estate

DerivativeDAO / Economic Share

Insurance Contract

Digital AssetTokenized Commodity

Digital Collectible

Enterprise Chain Securities & Assets


Unified Token Taxonomy

Where instruments

cross categories, we

highlight a primary

and secondary

category

Macro View on Investors

@autonofintech


Emergence of institutional investors with broad strategies

Crypto Funds by Inception Year and

Strategy (Oct 2018)


Ecosystem

Funds

Protocol or Exchange

Corporate venture

Fund of FundsLegal wrapper

Fat fees

Token BasketToken of tokens

Manager selection

AI / QuantArbitrage

Machine learning

IndexPassive beta

Small, mid, large

TradingTechnical charts

Market movement

VentureMV=PQ

Team + Narrative8

4

1913

29

268

143

Prior 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

@autonofintech


Decentralized but not equally distributed

12

Crypto Fund by Strategy (October 2018)

Primarily:

• Liquid Venture

• Trading

• Ecosystem

$10-12 Billion

+$2B Grayscale

+ $500MM Exante

+ BTC Futures

• Top 50 funds hold 77% of

known AUM

• Top 10 hold 37%

• 75% of funds are lurkers

182

58%

102

15%

31 6%

323%

19

2%

9

1%

14

15%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Number % of AUM

Ecosystem Fund

Fund of Funds

Token Basket

AI / Quant

Index

Trading

Liquid Venture

389 AUM %

@autonofintech


UK and Switzerland lead on fund location in Europe

13

Crypto Funds Top Countries Crypto Funds Top Cities

16.3%

14.1%

11.9%

5.9%

5.3%

3.8%

3.8%

3.1%

2.8%

2.5%

2.2%

2.2%

1.9%

1.9%

1.9%

20.6%

11.1%

36.7%

5.5%

1.3%

2.8%

2.2%

0.8%

10.6%

0.9%

2.7%

1.4%

0.4%

6.9%

0.3%

4.9%

11.4%

New York

San Francisco

London

Los Angeles

Singapore

Chicago

Zug

Moscow

Hong Kong

George town

Beijing

Dubai

Boston

Washington…

La Jolla

Other

Count

AUM

53.8%

10.0%

6.0%

4.1%

3.8%

3.3%

3.1%

2.6%

1.7%

1.4%

10.0%

52.6%

3.6%

0.9%

1.8%

1.6%

12.6%

7.0%

5.6%

1.8%

0.2%

12.3%

US

UK

Switzerland

Singapore

Australia

China

Russia

CaymanIslands

Germany

South Africa

Other

@autonofintech


We are early in the traditional value chain, but late in the

digital value chain

14Source: Autonomous Research, Investment Company Institute 2016, State Street 2015, World Wealth Report 2016

Custody of Asset

Institutional Capital Markets

Fund Manufacturing

Institutional Sales

Turnkey Asset Management

Platforms

Wealth Management

Systems

Financial Advisors

Client Assessment / Customization

Traditional Retail

Adoption

@autonofintech


27% 26% 24%27% 27%

16% 17% 18%18% 16%

25% 27%25%

31%31%

19% 18%18%

14% 17%

14% 13% 16%10% 9%

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Alternative Investments

Real Estate

Equities

Fixed Income

Cash and Cash Equivalents

88.4

$5.6

13.8

$2.6

15.9

$8.5

6.3

$16.9

0.2$3.2

Households Investable Assets ($T)

10mm+

$1mm-10mm

$250k-1mm

$100k-250k

<$100k

125MM ~$40T

Investable assets

Given global asset allocations, maintaining $500 billion in

crypto value does not require much change

15

US Wealth Management (2016)

Source: Autonomous NEXT, World Wealth Report

Allocation to Alternatives for $1MM+

Households

• A global allocation to Alternatives of 10% is $5-10 trillion

• 5% allocation within Alternatives to crypto is $500 billion

$500

billion

Valuation Frameworks

@autonofintech


Human Meme or Electricity? Going from 0 to 1.

17Image Source: Pexels

@autonofintech


Tokenize what again?

18Image Source: Pexels

Tables?

Food?

Coupons?

Equity?

@autonofintech


Valuation approaches (i.e., nothing works)

19Source: Autonmous NEXT

Philosophy

Chart Reading

MV = PQ

NTV + Ratios

Store of Value

Options Theory

Venture Capital

Community Quant

Metcalfe’s Law

@autonofintech


Growth Multiple Description

1x Rough size of today’s crypto markets is $300 billion

5x US paper currency in circulation is $1.6 trillion

20xTotal tech marketcaps on the Nasdaq in the DotCom bubble

reached $3.2 trillion, out of $6.7 trillion total

25x All gold ever mined at today's prices is valued at $7.6 trillion

33x Global foreign exchange reserves stand at $10 trillion

270x All equities of all public companies are worth $80 trillion

1,700xAll asset classes including alternatives and real estate come

to $500 trillion, equal to the net present value of global GDP

17,000xThe statistical value of all human life on the planet, based on

per country estimates, is $5 quadrillion

A guide to not making ridiculous claims, by understanding

what a particular growth multiple implies in terms of size

20Source: Autonomous NEXT, Pixabay, LA Times

http://articles.latimes.com/2006/jul/16/business/fi-overheat16

CRYPTO UTOPIA Is there a $1 Trillion Opportunity? · CRYPTO UTOPIA Is there a $1 Trillion...

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